T-I-G LV Sing when you're winning

[the phantom]

Fea dear, if it was likely you were a Critic, I would actually try and save you. That way the Lovers would have a Critic target to take a shot at. There would be no pressing reason to be rid of you today.

Unfortunately, the scenario that appears most likely is Fea=Walter. And so logically we should lynch you, as it wouldn't be a good idea to risk yet another spying mission.

So really, if you don't want to be lynched today, admit to or lie about being a Critic.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

So really, if you don't want to be lynched today, admit to or lie about being a Critic.

*pouts*

But I did that on Day One and nobody believed me!

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by the phantom

So really, if you don't want to be lynched today, admit to or lie about being a Critic.

Does she admit it or do we blindly take her word from the first page that she is a Critic?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Mac

Aganzir's analysis is tricksy. If she and Fea are in cahoots, she decided to let Fea go down and save herself.

Hmm I suspected her already yesterday. And tgwbs. I was rather positive there was something odd going on around them but I wasn't sure on whose part.

Originally Posted by Lari

As to why I thought Agan was the seer, it was a little comment from the first page actually: "Don't worry Gwath, thus far phantom is the only one who assumes he was dreamt of."

I don't mind looking a bit seerish every now and then if it means the wolves might come after me rather than the real seer.

Fea uses the word follow rather much.

Originally Posted by Brinn

but if he dreamt of both, maybe he found Fea to be a critic and Aganzir to be the cobbler, which could be why he made Fea his primary target.

I don't think that would make sense. If I was the seer and dreamed of the cobbler, I'd rather try to get her/him killed first as s/he is more dangerous with her/his ability to reveal roles to the critics.

Originally Posted by phantom

Fea dear, if it was likely you were a Critic, I would actually try and save you. That way the Lovers would have a Critic target to take a shot at.

Save her until one of the lovers dies?

I'll do now what I was supposed to do yesterday and go through Mac's posts.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Agan

Save her until one of the lovers dies?

Yes, if we figured she is a Critic.

But as Walter seems just as likely (or more likely), I would action is the order of the day.

A question to Fea- you pretty much know you're dead. So, would you like to die alone, or do you think Agan should die with you, as someone suggested earlier? I'd just like to know.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Because I realised it only after I saw your post. Earlier I had just thought, 'ok, he suspects us both,' but I had paid no attention to the fact that he seemed to suspect us equally until you said it aloud.

I'm not buying that, I'm afraid. It would have been a sloppy analysis if it paid no attention to this fact, but the rest of your analysis was not sloppy at all, so I suspect intent.

On Aganzir suspecting Fea before: It could be (and is likely, I'd say) that Fea is the cobbler and Aganzir a critic, so that does not prove the innocence of either. Not to mention the critic-on-critic possibility.

Originally Posted by Boro

Not to be arrogant Mac, but I know how to use seer lingo, it is never the seer's intent to leave confusing statements. Now that happens, but seers don't purposefully set out to confuse.

Did I say tgwbs was jumping out everywhere shouting wolf! wolf! wolf! No, but if he did he would lead clues to the wolf, not make statements that he doesn't know who any are.

A seer is, of course, in the dilemma to leave his knowledge behind should he die, but if he does it too obviously, he'll die quicker than he desires. While seers don't wish to confuse (though tp suggested earlier that it is at least possible that tgwbs did), they need to obscure their knowledge to the point that it is only decipherable to anybody once his role is known.

Anyway, I was just irritated by your first analysis which suggested that Fea is not evil at all. There is evidence that Fea is the cobbler, there is evidence that Fea is a critic. Only her death will show.

Originally Posted by Fea

Of course there's no astonishment, sweetheart. Even if I felt it, do you really think I'd type it? Who would believe me if I showed up the day after the seer had been killed, the very seer who'd been regularly trying to get me lynched, and said sweetly, batting my eyelashes, "Oh my, oh dear dear dear, who could have done such a thing?" Nobody would believe me, they'd assume I was a lying devious little thing.

Given the evidence against you, a genuine statement of innocence and surprise would probably have been the only thing that could have saved you. Now only a miracle could.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I certainly wouldn't be willing to bet a double lynch on it...especially since we can't even be 100% sure about Fea's guilt.

How could the seer have made it clearer that he wanted Fea lynched? (We should all go to England and beat some sense into him if he only made is believe he dreamt of Fea. ) The question is, do we just lynch Fea, or do we take the chance and get more than just one baddie?

Of course, scheduling a double lynching will be tough, since we have two people willing to derail it in the last minute.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

So, would you like to die alone, or do you think Agan should die with you, as someone suggested earlier? I'd just like to know.

I would like to take a critic out with me, if I must die, but if there is no certainty, than darling, I prefer to die alone.

Originally Posted by Mac

How could the seer have made it clearer that he wanted Fea lynched?

The question isn't whether or not he wanted me lynched, it's whether or not he dreamed of me. Which I say he did not.

[Aganzir]

Sorry it seems you're not going to get a Mac analysis yet. The minute I was about to start working on it an msn window popped open, and I've been chatting with half the players ever since, and it's almost 4am now.

The worst thing is, I'm not sure if I have time for it tomorrow either as I'm going to get home only two hours before deadline. Sorry for being this useless.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Legate is never this under-the-radar unless he's hiding something.

++Legate

[Aganzir]

Okay so in lack of any serious suspects I'd rather get rid of the dead weight.

++Legate

He hasn't shown up at all which is rather untypical of him.

edit: xed with Shasta

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

So what's concerning me most about this game is Legate's conspicuous absence.

This cannot be allowed to continue.

++Legate

[Brinniel]

You know, all this focus is on Fea is unhealthy. Meanwhile, I can't help but wonder where Legate is. It's not normal for him to be so quiet. He's gotta be up to something.

Which is why I'm voting:

++Legate

EDIT: X-ed posted with a bunch. Apparently they're thinking the same thing...

[Gwathagor]

Well I read most of page 10 (I think?).

First, I think we are obligated to (at the very very least) seriously consider lynching our seer's most suspected - if only because he was the seer. To do otherwise would be irresponsible, and unfair to the seer.

Regarding Aganzir and Feanor o' the Peredhil: I notice tgwbs had the two of them listed as "most guilty," and not "most suspicious." Given that tgwbs consistently pro-lynching-Fea from Day 1, the fact that he makes a sharp shift in his approach to Aganzir between Day 1 and Day 2 indicates to me that he may have dreamt of her in between, and not Fea. Day 1 he calls her reasonable, Day 2 he calls her "most guilty."

I guess, to conclude, I think Aganzir deserves as much attention as Fea - but I don't think a double lynch is in order - was that Mac that suggested that? That's crazy. Look what happened last time.

Anyway, I'll vote in 7 hours or something when I wake up. I feel like reading pages 11 and 12, but I really have to go to bed. I have to get up early tomorrow.

[Gollum the Great]

Gwath, you say that we kill Agan and Fea but not in a double-lynch. Why? It would enable us to dispose of two birds with one stone, and buy us another day. It does- I admit- look like a risk, but a calculated risk and worth a shot.

And I'm not trying to throw suspicion here on you, Gwath, I'm just questioning your point.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Mac

Since Fea is a goner, we have the chance to lynch another baddie as well. Might go wrong, sure, but so can every lynch.

And the odds that it goes wrong are bigger than that we get it right, and since it's the critics who will most likely benefit from it, I have a very hard time trying to see your suggestion as an innocent one.
Plus, we don't know if people will get modfired for not participating.

Originally Posted by Mac

Ilya did, too.

Oh yes she did. But it doesn't change the fact that three people voicing suspicion against you are not that big of a threat, especially if there are also people who consider you innocent or don't want you lynched around, which makes you look slightly overreactive. I wouldn't count Boro when thinking about people who suspected you back then.

Originally Posted by Mac

I didn't point it out because I thought it to be obvious: the reason to leave that I had was RL.

Whoops sorry I realised that, it was just badly phrased. It should have been It looks like it was enough for him to came up with someone he could vote without any actual reasons before leaving..

Originally Posted by Mac

The "Would anyone please act very, very suspicious within the next half hour?" meant that I was largely clueless and was joking about somebody to please be obviously suspicious before I had to vote half an hour later. I seriously fail to see the scariness of that.

I don't because that's what wolves can think rather often and I wouldn't put it past you to say it aloud.

Originally Posted by Mac

You can't seriously take my jokes and hold them against me as evidence... sheesh

I take everything I find suspicious, don't care if they're jokes or not. Besides sometimes it's hard to distinguish a joke from a serious statement, and later it would be easy to downplay suspicions against these things by saying they're jokes.

Originally Posted by Mac

Yes, but, no offense, both suspicions were very weak. The carelessness was, in my opinion, that he didn't try harder to look for suspects. It's kind of hilarious that you accuse me of doing what defend Gwath for doing to a much larger extent.

I haven't concentrated on Gwath at all thus far so I don't know about him. However, I think the way you did it was different. Maybe Gwath didn't try very hard to look for suspects, but you just decided in the beginning that Menel was suspicious and went along those lines for the whole day. When speaking about Gwath as a player, I think he's quite often like that, so I find you more suspicious.

Originally Posted by Mac

That is most certainly wrong.

Someone would have voted him anyway.
Okay, when saying Nog would probably have been lynched even without Gwath's vote, I forgot the Nog saving attempt. I just thought he would have gathered quite a lot votes nonetheless. However I don't think Gwath could foresee the bandwagon.

Originally Posted by Mac

Some of the things she found suspicious of others could have been applied to Brinn, too, but weren't. That made me suspicious. If you want me to, I can elaborate.

I would like to see them.

Originally Posted by Mac

She is almost certainly evil, and if she's the cobbler, we basically end up wasting a lynch, which is right up the cobbler's alley.

Even more so if we double lynch her and an innocent.

Originally Posted by Mac

If I were innocent and in your position, I would not be able to analyse the person who wants to double-lynch me objectively either.

It's not just that you want to double lynch me, it's that you want to double lynch at all. The chances that it would benefit us are so slim.

**

Originally Posted by Gollum

However, if we are going to kill Fea for that reason alone, is not Aganzir just as guilty?

The only thing is, I'm not guilty.

Originally Posted by Boro

Because before you consider using this little interaction between Fea and myself, be prepared to have it thrown back at you, and I guarantee you will be lynched before me. Not saying don't try it, just saying before you do, make sure you want to and definitely...Be Prepared.

Ooh he's singing my favourite song!
Anyway I'm planning to look up the things I found weird at some point but I'm not sure if it should be done only after Fea's death because it would make the task rather easier. Especially if she for some reason turns out to be innocent.

Originally Posted by Gollum

Gwath, you say that we kill Agan and Fea but not in a double-lynch. Why? It would enable us to dispose of two birds with one stone, and buy us another day. It does- I admit- look like a risk, but a calculated risk and worth a shot.

How come you're so sure? You know, there's this risk tgwbs didn't actually dream of us. Double lynching Fea and me would not buy the innocents another day, it would take one away.

Hey critics I hope you're enjoying yourselves.

[Aganzir]

Guilty
Fea. Time will tell for sure.
Mac. See case against him.

Innocent
Lari. If she's a wolf she's so totally awesome she deserves to win.
Brinn. Feeling rather good about her. She's reasonable.
Boro. I noticed something I found weird in his communication with Fea when reading her posts earlier, but I'm not going to hold it against him as long as we don't know Fea's role for sure & I haven't checked what it was.

Neither
sally. I will probably have to take a look at her posts at some point, not because I would find her especially suspicious but because I have no idea about her.
Kath. I'm leaning towards innocent but I'll read through her posts once before deciding anything.
Shasta. Where is he? Five posts.
Strongbow. Where on earth is he? Five posts, his last one is from the beginning of day 2.
Gollum. No idea.
Cailíneomer. Six posts.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Gwath

I notice tgwbs had the two of them listed as "most guilty," and not "most suspicious."

That is a good point actually.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And the odds that it goes wrong are bigger than that we get it right, and since it's the critics who will most likely benefit from it, I have a very hard time trying to see your suggestion as an innocent one.

The odds that it goes wrong are the same. Fea is almost certainly evil of some sort, and the second candidate has the same chances that the one candidate tomorrow has. Chances of getting one baddie: very high. Chances of getting two baddies: almost the same as getting one baddie on any other day.

And that's not even counting the higher probability of you being a baddie derived from tgwbs's information.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

But it doesn't change the fact that three people voicing suspicion against you are not that big of a threat, especially if there are also people who consider you innocent or don't want you lynched around, which makes you look slightly overreactive.

I don't know about you, but if three or possibly more people consider voting me short before the deadline, then I do get a bit nervous. Once somebody has three votes, he easily attracts more.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I would like to see them.

I'll try to come up with them later again if I have time.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Gollum the Great

Gwath, you say that we kill Agan and Fea but not in a double-lynch. Why? It would enable us to dispose of two birds with one stone, and buy us another day. It does- I admit- look like a risk, but a calculated risk and worth a shot.

And I'm not trying to throw suspicion here on you, Gwath, I'm just questioning your point.

Well - I guess this is technically true. Maybe I'm just squeamish about taking that kind of risk.

Oh, and I didn't say we kill both Agan and Fea, I just said we should seriously consider doing so. There is, as Aganzir pointed out, the possibility, however slight, that tgwbs did not dream of one or both of them. Maybe he only dreamt of innocents; it's possible.

[Gwathagor]

I have to vote now, unfortunately. I'm not really sure who's voted for who at this point since I missed a lot, but I'm going to vote

++Aganzir

Because 1) we owe it to ourselves and our seer to go after either her or Fea, and 2) I see pretty strong evidence that tgwbs may have dreamt of Aganzir on Night 2 (I think it is) as I stated in my post #521.

[Lariren Shadow]

If I have time at some point today I shall look over the posts between Fea and Boro since the beginning but there is a high probability that I won't be able to get in before the vote deadline.


++ Fea

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Will be in classes all day, so...

++Aganzir

I would just like to take another chance now to politely ask that you reconsider your suspicions of me. You know, just because.

[Mithalwen]

This is most intriguing...sorry to have ot leave you to your own devices but I think I am getting hypothermia...

[satansaloser2005]

Sorry, had this open in a different tab and forgot to submit it. Enjoy!

Brinn-->Gollum at 7:40am
Sally-->Gollum at 8:52am
TGWBS-->Fea at 9:42am
Kath-->Ilya at 11:53am
Mac-->Ilya at 12:05pm
Agan-->Ilya at 12:08pm
Fea-->Ilya at 12:09pm
Boro-->Ilya at 12:13pm
Lari-->Shasta at 12:15pm

Gwath-->Sally at 12:16pm (past DL)
Ilya-->Gollum at 12:21pm (past DL, retracted)

Ilya-->Mac at 12:24pm (past DL)

Didn't vote: Shasta, Bowie, Gollum, Cailin/Eomer

For those of you unfamiliar with my vote tallies, italicized villagers are innocent, underlined villagers are known baddies, and all vote times are Central, with a deadline of about 12pm.

[Gollum the Great]

Sorry if I seem pretty dumb, but I didn't even know Legate was playing.

[Cailín]

Do we have seven villains? That was one of the craziest things I've ever seen in Werewolf.

Well, Eomer here. Apparently I am playing today because a certain someone is busy and important.

I had just said to Cailín last night that, while the village won't be too happy with our lack of contribution, at least they wouldn't kill us on the off-chance that we're a submarine Critic - not when there's this whole Fea and Aganzir situation. A case to answer, and all that. It would be mad. I'm sure Legate would agree.

I suppose we need to assess that 7 in a row and decide who the players and the pawns are. I think our critics are staring us right in the face.

[Cailín]

I think Eomer once again managed to confirm the extent of our natural innocence.

Nothing but excellent play from the Netherlands.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I hate you all so much.