Tol-in-Gaurhoth LIV: The Council of Evil

[Meneltarmacil]

To answer your question, Aganzir, you initially said this about Gwathagor:

Also, I'm suspicious of Gwath because of his maybe-you-knew-because-you're-the-bear comment

and then followed it up in other posts with things like this:

Guilty
Gwath. Because of that "Maybe you are the werebear and that's how you knew." suggestion.

and

I dare guess that if people were suspecting Bowie very much now because of that, you wouldn't be saying so.

Later on, however, you seemed to change your opinion with this statement:

My first comment regarding Gwath was more of an attempt to get some talk than a real suspicion.

(Gwath was clearly listed as "Guilty" by you earlier, though...)
Also, despite your discussion about Gwath with Boromir88 afterward which yielded the "Guilty" comment, you made this statement:

I was the first to come up with the subject but I haven't been pursuing him since.

Add that to the continuous suspicion of Brinniel the unjustly killed, and things don't look too good.

Well, that's all for now, as I grow weary and must retire to the giant treasure heap in my lair for some rest.

[Aganzir]

Those familiar with my playing know I always roughly divide people into Guilty, Innocent and Neither categories. One can always ask himself how much trust they should lay on these lists made before there has even been 20 posts.

My first comment regarding Gwath was an attempt to get some talk instead of a real suspicion. I tend not to be all convinced someone is a baddie just because of one weird comment, and later on I found it reasonable to change my initial opinion.

By saying I hadn't been pursuing Gwath after the start I meant I hadn't come up with new things pointing at his guilt.

On who else did I flip flop? How did I flip flop on Ilya? How was I casting suspicion on people while trying to appear I didn't?

And as for you, Menel, earlier you were all for suspecting Gwath but after hours of non-activity you came back, saying Gwath has a tendency to make suspicious comments regardless of his role, and attacking me because I changed my opinion on him. Why can you do it if I can't? I could accuse you now of flip flopping on Gwath, and vote for you, and my vote would be perfectly as just as yours for me.

Also, forget what I said about Nog not being a baddie because of Boro's death. As long as we don't know why there was just one kill (ie if the teams take turns in killing or if one team just refrained from killing for one reason or other) we can't be sure. It's still possible Nog's a baddie and it was the other team that's responsible for killing Boro.

Guilty
Menel worries me slightly but I acknowledge it is probably more due to his (in my opinion) irrational suspicion on me, plus I always find his playing style suspicious.
Ilya. Her comment that Bowie looks like he had a role was not a thing I would have expected an innocent to say. Just because it'd be dangerous for Bowie if he was, say, the seer. Also, her honesty is a thing that contributed to my suspicion on her in last game. Just because it'd be such a good cover for a newbie-ish baddie. Irrational I know but I can't help it.

Innocent
Eönwë
Gwathy. The amount of suspicion cast on him yesterday was more suspicious than his bear comment, and after that he's been looking quite innocent. Besides I take pride in being a rather good Gwolf-catcher , and he hasn't been giving off any baddie vibes thus far so I'm not worried about him.
Bowie is the one I feel the least confident about but I'm ready to consider him innocent as well.

Neither
Nog. Gah I just don't know. However one thing is sure: he didn't kill Boro.
**
Isabell
Kath
sally
Shasta

Also, I can tell you it's depressing to come online after sleeping like ten hours and having breakfast and doing all kinds of stuff to be met with just one post after mine...

[Kath]

Well hello! I'm just posting to say that I will be around toDay but won't have a chance to post properly until later in the day as we have lots of RL things going on. I will return though.

[Eönwë]

I'm not really going to be able to post much today, as I won't be around at the DL, but I'll reread the thread (all 3 pages!) and see what I can come up with.

[Strongbow]

Well, after Nighttime, I'd say that the only thing that really surprises me is the number of kills. Perhaps this is what Gollum was talking about when he said that the Bear was "modified"...that it could choose when it wanted to kill, and not kill. This is a very scary thought, because WHO KNOWS when the Bear could strike now?

Anyhow:

I think Ilya's reaction to me was a bit sketch. Quoting the doorman at Bree (is his name Harry? I can never remember.), eh? Wasn't he in league with Bill Ferny, the Southrons, the Ruffians, and eventually...the Ringwraiths? Hmmm...I'm looking at you, but not too hard.

Everybody else is really illegible right now. I don't think Menel's attack on you is unwarranted, Agan, but both of you be careful, and try not to get into a Wine in Front of Me scenario. (from The Princess Bride. If you need an explanation, just ask me.)

[satansaloser2005]

("But Doctor, where is your gorgeous time travelling assistant?")

I'm here! I'm here!



Sorry, madcap couple of days, but I'm here now and need to read over things. Should be back fairly soon!

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Strongbow

Because, friend, the Werebear is the Serial Killer in other incarnations of our predicament.

Indeed. Also called a postal worker in some versions of Mafia, but Serial Killer is the best parallel. (I'm guessing someone plays on facebook.... )

Originally Posted by Ilya

Just got back from some christmas stealing and there's not too much doing on the thread? Already I miss Phantom and his hemorrhagic style of posting.

Thankee, Strongbow, for the werebear tip. Glad to see at least somebody's up to speed.

Christmas stealing?

I miss Phantom too. Though having a day and a half (as of now) over and only three pages to read is a relief, I must say it's a bit boring.

Originally Posted by Strongbow

Agan - I wasn't accusing you. That was species-directed, not alignment directed. And yes, Bowie will suffice. You're correct in saying that I have played Werewolf before, although it was called Mafia, and the Werebear was the Serial Killer. That's the reason why the mechanics are so familiar to me. - No suspicion

Menel - No suspicion

Boro - My eye is on you, but just because I've seen you to be devious in the past. Not an open accusation. - Small suspicion

Gwath - I can't be sure of anything, but you don't trust me for my knowledge of the enemy. My eye is also on you, even more so than the Blue Wizard. - Suspicion

Brinn - My reasoning still stands. - Suspicion

All the others I have no call on for now.

Careful, love. As I'm well aware, suspecting someone just because you always have doesn't always pan out. Then again, that's a risk you take and with Boro it's well founded, the silly devious fellow that he is. (Rather, was well founded, I suppose, since he's dead. By the way, who the heck would choose Boro as their first night kill? I'll probably talk more about that later, but right now I'm just going through things so I'll hopefully come back to it)

I don't understand why Bowie (that makes me giggle, by the way, just saying) suspects Brinn. Granted, I have the added knowledge of knowing Brinn is innocent when I read everything, so I may be biased, but still.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm sure one of the reasons this Day has been so quiet is because several players haven't realised the game has started (and with a Day), and are too busy with RL holiday stuff to check the Downs. I don't think that'll point to any sort of guilt or innocence.

After last game, I won't be surprised if you all decide to lynch me early on. It's a good thing I don't have a special role. For once, I'm actually not the slightest bit worried. I'm just relieved to finally get to play without the pressure of being something other than ordo for the first time in 2 1/2 games.

I have to vote very soon, btw.

Yeah, I had no idea that the game had started either. I'm not going to throw out the first Day completely, but it was so hectic and I'm sure most of you lovely people were busy so I'm willing to overlook a few bits of insanity or randomness.

2 1/2 games? *confused face* Anyway, poor Brinn. Again, I don't see what was so off about her, and I'm truly sorry she was yesterDay's lynchee.

Originally Posted by Strongbow

Well, after Nighttime, I'd say that the only thing that really surprises me is the number of kills. Perhaps this is what Gollum was talking about when he said that the Bear was "modified"...that it could choose when it wanted to kill, and not kill. This is a very scary thought, because WHO KNOWS when the Bear could strike now?

Anyhow:

I think Ilya's reaction to me was a bit sketch. Quoting the doorman at Bree (is his name Harry? I can never remember.), eh? Wasn't he in league with Bill Ferny, the Southrons, the Ruffians, and eventually...the Ringwraiths? Hmmm...I'm looking at you, but not too hard.

Everybody else is really illegible right now. I don't think Menel's attack on you is unwarranted, Agan, but both of you be careful, and try not to get into a Wine in Front of Me scenario. (from The Princess Bride. If you need an explanation, just ask me.)

That's very possible, Bowie. In most games I've played, the Serial Killer/Postal Worker is nto required to kill every night, but is given the opportunity to do so if they wish. Here's another theory though, cracked though it may be. What are the odds that the wolves and the Bear targeted the same person? Just putting that out for discussion.

Heh. For that reference you automatically win the game, I don't care whose side you're on. Ten minutes -I need to settle the details with Gollum- then the narration will come.

Anyway, no one's posted since my last post, at least no one had when I started this one. So if there's anything between my two posts, it's x'd. Enjoy!

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

By the way, who the heck would choose Boro as their first night kill? I'll probably talk more about that later, but right now I'm just going through things so I'll hopefully come back to it)

I would imagine it to be someone rather quiet (which applies to almost everyone in this village, at least thus far) who hasn't played much enough to learn to regard Boro as a precious jewel who plays way too seldom.
Or then it's someone who wants to bluff... But it's sure not to be Nog. He wouldn't do it even for the sake of bluff.

Originally Posted by sally

I don't understand why Bowie (that makes me giggle, by the way, just saying) suspects Brinn.

I can't speak for him, but I suspected her because her posting looked forced. Okay and maybe the idea that she deserved to be lynched also occurred to me... But it didn't contribute to my suspicions at all. Funny by the way that I should want to punish her for my own inability to catch her in last game.

Originally Posted by sally

What are the odds that the wolves and the Bear targeted the same person? Just putting that out for discussion.

Dang I knew I had forgotten something when posting my list of rhetorical questions at the beginning of the day, thanks sally.
I don't know about that though. Then we would need to find three people who agreed to kill him and it just doesn't compute. Or, well, maybe if they all thought he was the seer? I'm not sure how likely that is.

edit: xed with sally again

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Strongbow

Well, after Nighttime, I'd say that the only thing that really surprises me is the number of kills.

Out of curiosity, why aren't you surprised of Boro's death?

Originally Posted by Bowie

Anyhow:I don't think Menel's attack on you is unwarranted, Agan, but both of you be careful, and try not to get into a Wine in Front of Me scenario. (from The Princess Bride. If you need an explanation, just ask me.)

Well I do, but then again every time I'm accused while innocent, the reasons feel bad. And since the knowledge of my own innocence is usually all I have, I can start working from that basis. You never know when the one accusing you is in fact a wolf who needs to accuse innocents to ensure their own survival.
Also, I need an explanation.

I find it pretty awkward that deadline is in four hours and there has been nine posts from six people, three of whom just checking in.

edit: ooh xed with sally

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I find it pretty awkward that deadline is in four hours and there has been nine posts from six people, three of whom just checking in.

edit: ooh xed with sally

Yeah, that worries me too.


Okay, Boro's death. Who would kill Boro? Agan, you're here, what are your thoughts my furry -erm, funny- little friend?

[Strongbow]

Okay, Wine in Front of Me is a logical fallacy, and is a situation of circular reasoning which wears out both parties involved. I'm going to paraphrase the situation (forgive me William Goldman/Rob Reiner):

The Man in Black has reached his third enemy (after defeating the blademaster Inigo Montoya and the Turkish strongman Fezzik), the evil Sicilian Vizzini, who has captured the Princess Buttercup. Vizzini has set up a picnic for TMiB, presumably to negotiate a price for the Princess. TMiB proposes another solution: he will poison one of the glasses, and Vizzini must choose which glass he will. Whoever lives gets Buttercup. Whoever dies...dies. Vizzini shifts in between faulty logic, eventually overthinking his predicament, and he begins to choose the wine in front of him, but then forces TMiB to look the other way, as he switches the glasses. After they drink, Vizzini laughs hysterically, revealing his deception. That is, until he drops dead. TMiB spent years building up a tolerance to the poison, and therefore he poisoned both glasses.

Moral of the story: don't overthink, Agan and Menel.

I know I'm x-ing with Agan, so I'm just going to say that if we had a descriptive death post, we might know how Boro was killed.

[Strongbow]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Out of curiosity, why aren't you surprised of Boro's death?

Because I wouldn't be surprised if any of us had died. I was honestly dreading my own death, for a while.