Werewolf LIII: The Republic

[Brinniel]

I think lynching Gil is the smartest thing we can do right now. I don't think he's the wolf, but since I don't think there's any chance he'll be eliminated at Night, this is the only way to know for sure. And like Lommy said, by lynching Gil we will have all players participating so that there should definitely be a rep toMorrow. This will give us an extra Day to figure things out, which is something we definitely need.

Hmm...so Kath is already a rep. If we all agree to lynch Gil, then we don't need any more than one rep, do we? I mean, I think it's better to have less reps. Because the fewer players doing the actual lynching, the less likely it'll be that a wolf is involved to screw things up.

EDIT: X-ed with Kath. Never mind then.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Kath

If anyone has opinions on the lynch Gil or double lynch ideas or has any other theories/suggestions please put them forward. It's prompting conversation which is fantastic.

I've never been fond of double lynches (unless a known wolf is involved) because it's too risky, especially at this late stage. If our two lynchees turn out innocent, then the wolf wins the game.

[Brinniel]

I almost took back what I said about the number of reps, thinking that if we agreed on lynching Gil, one of the reps would definitely vote for him and if the other was the wolf and didn't vote him making a double lynch instead, we'd find her out and be able to lynch her with three left toMorrow. But then I remembered that we have to vote for reps first and with only three left, no rep would be voted in. So I don't take back what I said after all.

Please correct me if I'm at all wrong. I'm thinking in numbers and it's confusing me.

Perhaps I should make a third vote for someone in order to eliminate the possibility of a double lynch. But if one of our reps is the wolf, what if I end up giving the wolf more voting power? Then we're still headed for trouble.

This is all giving me a headache. I need to go away for a little while and think.

[Brinniel]

Meh, it looks like I'll be talking to myself for the rest of tonight. A pity, as I'd like someone to actually converse with..

I've been doing some research...I'll be posting more shortly.

[Brinniel]

I need to pause from my research because it's almost deadline and I haven't made a decision yet.

If I give one of the reps a third vote, it'd be for Lommy. Actually both reps don't look very suspicious, but taking an even closer look I feel most confident of Lommy's innocence.

Let's see...if I were to vote Lommy, here's what could happen:

1) no double lynch
2) she votes for Gil, which is something most people seem to agree on, and he gets lynched
3) she votes for someone else for some reason. If she's a wolf, the village is doomed. If she's innocent, there's a possibility she voted for the wolf, but we can't know for sure.

If I vote for someone else entirely and keep two equal reps:

1) possible double lynch
2) both reps agree to vote for Gil and he gets lynched
3) both reps agree to vote for someone else and they get lynched
4) they decide to take the risk and go for a double lynch
5) if one of them is a wolf and Gil is agreed to be killed, there's a good chance the wolf will turn it into a double lynch last minute dooming the village. In order to do this, the wolf rep would have to vote last.

Grr...I'm out of time. Are we actually even planning to lynch Gil? A lot of this is based on the idea that we are, but I don't know if anything has been officially agreed upon.

++Lommy for rep

I don't understand why everyone feels so much better about two reps...this seems more logical and less risky to me.

[Brinniel]

Gah, my internet flaked out on me for a good few minutes and now I'm late so I don't even know if my vote counts at all.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I don't even know if my vote counts at all.

It does not.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Kath - she's not suspecting me! there must be something wrong in there... or then not; I'm slightly persuaded to wait and see

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Kath I'm very unsure of as she seems to trust me somewhat (at least the last time she was around of which some time has really gone) and I find it slightly suspicious. Maybe I should just start to learn to be a bit more grown-up and stop suspecting her everytime (I quess this is the second time I'm saying this; now what does it tell? ). But she really should post more. I'm not inclined to suggest her lynching anyway, at this point at least.

Originally Posted by Kath

Yes, yes, faint in shock at the thought of my trusting the ever-suspicious Nogbod, but I have actually come to terms with the fact that I think he's innocent. There are a few others I might have voted for. phantom is one (loving the tummy thing btw morm, it makes me laugh every time I see it!), Lommy is another. But toDay I'm going with Nog, I think it's good for me to get over this 'it's Nog! He must be evil' thing and this is as good a way as any.

This is indeed an interesting exchange between Noggie and Kath. If it's wolvish, it's a quite playful exchange...but I don't know how likely it is. If they are both wolves, it'd certainly be rather bold.

Originally Posted by Kath

Well, yes Brinn I did disappear. The plan was laid out before me and I did my part of it. I figured if I hung around stuff like what has been happening would happen ... morm confessing and then taking it back, Nog coming up with theory after theory. I tend to read all of it, spend hours arguing with myself, and then going for the original plan anyway. I decided this time I was going to have an easier time of it and just miss out the middle section.

I still don't like her explanation for popping in to vote Day 4, then leaving again without further thought. Simply because it's so easy for a wolf to hide in that manner.

Originally Posted by Kath

Gil-Galad - given our relatively good numbers at the moment I wonder whether it would be worth lynching him. Thing is I'm a bit torn. I wouldn't put it past Fea to make him a wolf and then sit back laughing maniacally as we give him the benefit of the doubt and lynch person after person with no result ... but then it's Fea and Fea loves an interesting game. Actually given that there WAS a kill last Night I'm thinking it's unlikely he is a wolf. If he isn't around even to make a silly post during the Day anywhere on the Downs he's unlikely to remember to make a kill.

I agree it's a good point she brings up that if Gil was the wolf, how likely would he actually kill someone at Night? If he is the wolf, it's certainly a frustrating and unfair strategy...only playing at Night.

Originally Posted by Kath

Huh ... and having said that if Brinn continues to make those extremely long quote posts I'll put her on the likely to be a wolf list just for the principle of the thing!

I don't understand if this was a joke or a serious comment. But if it's the latter, I don't understand why this alone is enough to make me suspicious. Like it or not, I'm not the first innocent to make quote posts...and I did talk about doing it for the past Day so there shouldn't have been any surprise there.

Originally Posted by Kath

Well - I mean I'm very happy to be a Rep just so long as those thinking of voting for me are aware that my vote will almost definitely go to Gwath. There's almost no chance of that changing. Just so you know.

For about two Days, Kath was quite persistent on Gwath. But would a wolf be so bold and forceful? I think it's more likely the wolf would've just gone along with the flow on suspicions.

Originally Posted by Kath

Here is a thought - let's lynch Gil. None of us can fully decide whether each other is actually suspicious - perhaps that is because none of us is. I know I just said that if Gil is the wolf then leave him to it but maybe that's stupid. If he is the wolf we're just going to keep killing each other off for no reason for another couple of Days.

This comment seems pretty innocentish. I don't think a wolf would bring up the idea of lynching Gil...it's more strategic to keep him around until the end.

Originally Posted by Kath

Right then, to make it two Reps I guess I need to vote:

++LOMMY for Rep

Again, I don't understand what the urgent need was for two reps. But she wasn't the only one who thought this, so I guess it's nothing particularly strange.