Werewolf LIII: The Republic

[Ilya]

The laziness in endemic, Lommy. Hopefully, I'll shake it off and get to work looking through the wolves' posts later this afternoon. Just wanted to check in on the thread, though.

[Kath]

Well, well, we have proof now of who the noise boxes were in this village! It is a rather pleasant surprise not to have 5 pages of posts to catch up on after missing 12 hours or so.

So, who do we have left who could be a wolf? I was just going to look at everyone and then I ended up accidentally analysing Gwath which took up a lot of space so I'll post what I've got so far and carry on with the others in another post.

Gil-Galad - given our relatively good numbers at the moment I wonder whether it would be worth lynching him. Thing is I'm a bit torn. I wouldn't put it past Fea to make him a wolf and then sit back laughing maniacally as we give him the benefit of the doubt and lynch person after person with no result ... but then it's Fea and Fea loves an interesting game. Actually given that there WAS a kill last Night I'm thinking it's unlikely he is a wolf. If he isn't around even to make a silly post during the Day anywhere on the Downs he's unlikely to remember to make a kill.

Gwathagor:
Day 1 has some very short posts, some controversy over considering voting for himself and voted Nogrod. Was mentioned by Nog - 'maybe we should not judge too heavily at this moment but he does look evasive indeed'. Potentially a wolf buddy 'ooh look but don't actually' moment. Argumentative with Legate - poking at his suspicions of Agan and questioning his vote for phantom. The second comment against Legate is odd ... it seems more misunderstanding than anything else but the tone is very accusing. Nog then voted to lynch him. What I can't recall is whether there was any other support for Gwath being lynched Day 1. If there was then it seems unlikely he and Nog were wolf buddies, if there wasn't then it's a pretty safe vote and that likelihood goes up.
Day 2 I do not get his reasoning for assuming Nog innocent. Joins the 'why must you have secret ploys' brigade. Fails to vote.
Day 3 - says Eonwe's list isn't useful because his suspicions sound the same - I have to say I disagree but that's personal opinion. Pushing idea of phantom and Boro both being wolves. Seemed almost behind the times - 'maybe the Seer has dreamt of one of you already' when that was the angle that phantom had been pushing for ages. Hmm, mentions Nog again ... sort of defending him. Despite suggesting that Boro and phantom may both be wolves he then votes Boro as his Rep and also says he doesn't want to get rid of him yet ... which if we can believe what our wolves were saying yesterDay was a major part of their discussions during the Night, perhaps this is a Daytime message along the same lines. Says odd reasoning to vote Ka ... which is just what morm says a bit later.
Day 4 - surprised that Ka is a wolf. Could go either way that one really. Overly confused by Boro's revelation. Turns against Nog ... saving his own skin? Votes Nerwen as meant to. Hasn't said anything so far toDay I don't think. Well, I have to say that from that rather impromptu analysis I think he could well be a wolf. He hasn't been as quiet as many people seem to think he has been but much of what he has said has been one liners. I definitely think he's suspicious.

Unlikely wolf:
Gil

Likely wolf:
Gwath

[Brinniel]

Okay, it took me a loong time, but I finally got all the quotes together. There's a lot of them, so I'll post one Day at a time. I also added some side comments raising points about a few quotes. After I've put up all the quotes, I'll post a more thorough summary of my thoughts.

Day 1

The wolves about the unknowns:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Or maybe quietness is not the right factor but the kind of carefulness of some of us around. If we pick them as representatives they will have to take a stand.

I just realised this... Kath, would you like to be a representative?

Perhaps an excuse to vote for a fellow wolf? Why choose Kath among the other quiet ones?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Kath - Speaks how enthusiastic about this game she is and that's it. No posts after that. Laying low or just busy? Fits the general "Kath on Day1" scheme though... a bit too well - and that's why I'd like to see her as a representative toMorrow even if she might vote for me just out of the annoyance...

Nerwen - Only one post but offers an idea: either Shasta is in cahoots with tp or then Brinn as they are so extremely friendly - and no one would believe the wolves would be that obvious. A fair point looking at the time of the posting showing she's up to this game - even if I'd wish to see her post more. But I surely do wish to see her more so not someone I'd wish to see lynched toDay.

Gwath - Only posted to say "I'm reading but have nothing to contribute yet" - and that was 14 hours ago... RL and all may be factors and maybe we should not judge too heavily at this moment but he does look evasive indeed.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm tempted to make Ilya our second representative right now with a second vote. I think she might be one we should see there. I mean even if she is an old sport around here she's quite unknown to us later-comers in here and I really would like to see what she does - and looking at her last post just made me a bit more confident about her.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Sure you're right (whoever it was to point it out) that we should be careful not to vote for any clear clicks as our representatives - like even if I feel pretty good about Greenie at the moment I wouldn't like her to be a representative for us just because Brinn already is.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I was a bit torn between Ilya and Lommy as my choices but I will be sticking to my curiousity this Day and vote for

++ Ilya

... thus making her a second representative.

I kind of agree with most of her actual points she made in her list (not all).

To be more exact: I agree with her about

- Brinn feeling generally good by a bit too many of us and thence worth suspecting just because of that if not for any other reason (even if my instincts go for saying she's an innocent - but that's what they always seem to be doing - and that's another reason to be uncomfortable with her).
- Greenie looking more innocent than not.
- Lommy feeling genuine... at least this far. With her I know she can totally fool me... Like Greenie can... Too close, too hard to fathom?

I do somewhat disagree with her about:

- Kath I do not trust (she makes it through the first Days too easily as a tactical manouver like this every time) - even if I don't find her especially suspicious either at this point of the game.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Btw. the reason I'm getting an innocent feel from both Di and Rune is their apparent eagerness to make it to be a representative.

Originally Posted by Ka

I don't have anything on Kath. Though, I'm more curious whether she was a safe vote, or seemed safe to others who either trust her for her wisdom or, are trying to suvive by echoing the thoughts of others. I don't distrust Kath, but more of those voting her way. I don't have much playing experience with her either, unfortunately. So far she seems rather innocent, while I need to look back over other's votes for her.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The row between Aganzir and Lommy. Argumentwise I'd say Agan looks the more innocent one, feelingwise I think Lommy looks the more innocent (she felt genuinely frustrated - although a wolf might feel the frustration as well to be sure). So I just can't avoid the idea that it's two innocents tearing each other apart.

The skirmish between Gil and Shasta was amusing indeed but didn't tell us much. But just looking at the row it would make me feel Gil more innocent (I don't think he would make such a number were he a wolf) and leaves me quite empty-handed with Shasta. Shasta's enthusiasm to get on Gil could be seen as a wolf finally finding a target - and his retreat from it after Gil got personal would be just wise from a wolf as well. The problem is there's a host of "if's" there.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm one of those who were a bit uneasy with Gwath's vote for me as a representative. The contraditory nature of that vote was clear indeed. And it could be looked from the devil's advocate viewpoint quite easily and deemed evil.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Brinniel - looks and feels genuine thus far
Gil-Galad - the enigma who is more often innocent than not - and gets things right more often than has been granted the honour of
Greenie - the sneaky one, my daughter... I never figure her out and thence am afraid everytime
Gwathagor - could be a wolf, could not be...
Ilya - looks and feels genuine thus far
Lommy - feels innocentish
Kath - she's not suspecting me! there must be something wrong in there... or then not; I'm slightly persuaded to wait and see
Nerwen - looks and feels genuine thus far, although I'd love to see her post more
Rune - the enthusiasm of getting to be a representative speaks on his behalf - and the general feeling I get is more that of an ordo
Sally - very hard nut to crack but maybe more innocentish because of the level of her light-heartedness (she was a bit more focused the last time she was a wolf)

Originally Posted by Nogrod

++ Gwath

Because I think it is a plausible interpretation of Gwath's odd grounds for voting - and he knew what he was bargaining for... Why else would he have formulated his vote for me to be a rep in that way being himself obviously one of the group he wished me to target?

A wolf-on-wolf vote is possible here. I don't think it looked very likely for Gwath to get lynched.

Originally Posted by morm

These two parts caught my eye from Sally...I'm starting to read and will post as I go along. It is always odd when people apologize in advance, it as though they want to set it up that when questioned on something they can point it out that they have a reason for it.

Originally Posted by morm

I'm on post 336 and it seems that Lommy and Agan are going at it strongly. I find little merit in either arguement and feel that both are innocent. Lommy seems like Lommy, who generally exhibits behavior that I find suspicious and she is doing that right now which is innocent, if that makes sense. Lommy seems to find one or two targets and is convinced of herself to the point that she puts blinders on other possibilities. I think that is what she is doing here.

Originally Posted by morm

Okay I am just to this line and found it odd. It would seem to me that this is the first time Ilya has played, correct? If he/she (sorry I don't know which) were to be a wolf with Legate, there would be some aprehension and fear associated with such a role on the first time. It seems that Legate would be giving him a clue here that he's doing just fine and to keep it up. He said nothing similar to any other player. I have not suspect Ilya to this point but this raises my suspicions especially if Legate is one.

The unknowns about the wolves:

Originally Posted by Greenie

mormegil - Seems reasonable enough.
Nogrod - Not actively suspicious nor actively innocent.
The Ka - Leaning innocent this far.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I should soon know who I'm going to vote as a rep. Right now, I'm most inclined to vote Shasta (he seems innocent and rather sharp-witted, and well, you know, he's a known psychic ) or possibly Nogrod (since I think he has a rather good track-record in Day1 votes and seems innocent too).

Originally Posted by Ilya

mormegil -Also one of the vets who's already intimidated me.
Nogrod - Makes a lot of valid points. Not sure I'd want him for my rep just yet, but seems very focused.
The Ka - Also love the handle if it's from where I think it's from. I'd like to hear more from her.

Originally Posted by Gwath

Ok, so toDay I am voting

++Nogrod

as my representative. I think he'd do a good job of keeping the quiet players on their toes, making the ranks of the sub-reindeer-sitters a less than safe place for a wolf to hide. This, at any rate, is my hope.

Originally Posted by Sally

Morm: Monkey with a gun. Yipes. But for some reason my Morm sensor is NEVER right. Ridiculous, really. I think he's innocent, so he must be guilty.
Ka: cute little posts (at least the ones I've read so far) and fairly friendly. Which isn't to say that Ka's not always friendly, or that wolves have to be rude, but she seems legit, at least for now.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Morm makes me very uneasy. But I think that's just a reflex...

mormegil - like I said, he makes me really uneasy. It's just a gut-feeling. And I know my bad gut-feelings of morm are not to be trusted. So I will refrain from lobbying for his lynch until I have a reasoning-based reason to suspect him...

Nogrod - seems sensible and innocentish. My only worry is that he seems almost too much so.

The Ka - I like her but I don't trust her. She seems a little non-commital ("I'm an observer, sorry, I won't post that much") and a little odd, too. She'll never earn my trust easily after that performance as an evil Radagast...

I pasted this quote without putting a name next to it. I think it was said by Lommy...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Nogrod's vote for Ilya. The reasoning is fine, but I feel it's a bit out of character from someone who generally favours known "elite" players.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Generally, I think Leggie looks quite innocentish, Ka is slightly creepy, and Agan speaks good sense and raises good questions.

Originally Posted by Greenie

morm - No read.
Noggins - Nothing new to say about him, either. Leaning innocent.
Ka - She creeps me out, don't know why.

Originally Posted by Brinn

mormegil: As of now, I have no idea. But I admit each time I play with him, he scares me.

Nogrod: I admittingly keep skimming through his posts because they're so lengthy (along with a few other players). I tend to agree with him too much, but I can never get myself to trust him.

The Ka: Has posted substance, but still seems uninvolved. Something about Ka feels odd....just a gut feeling there.

[Brinniel]

Day 2

The wolves about the unknowns:

Originally Posted by morm

What really bothers me though is how Nerwen seems to piggy-back off phantom's ideas. A good number of people assume phantom to be innocent, and honestly I'm okay with that, despite some of my criticisms of him overall I think him genuine but I am keeping a close eye on him because I know of his skill as a wolf and I'm watching for and pointing out any lupine signs I may see. Anyway Nerwen on Day 1 didn't make any sort of impression on me, was overly quiet and reserved. She didn't do or say anything controversial. And now that she feels that the phantom is a fairly well accepted innocent she seems to quickly parrot what the phantom is saying. Her stating that they might have gone after McCaber because they thought he was a ranger sounded awfully strange to me. Gil got a free pass for ignorance so why not give it a try, eh Nerwen? Nerwen just shot up from an unknown to my top suspect based upon what I am seeing and feeling from her.

Originally Posted by morm

The problem with a statement like this is it's could be an attempt to back me up against a wall. Nerwen could feel that by saying she is offended that I will back off because to proceed further would be rude. I will not back off, look at what her little 'slip' has done. Multiple people are coming and delcaring her likely innocent. I think it is a great ploy to use and that you are wise enough to use it. It is not an insult, rather a compliment, but it makes me not trust you and the fact that you are now trying to pressure me to stop bothers me too.

Originally Posted by Ka

Definitely have to agree with that. I remember what a Sally wolf is. Though, if she was a wolf this time, she either is taking the role of a lurker, or is up to something else which I have no clue what and why. Or, she’s innocent, and just busy.

Originally Posted by Ka

As for a new rep, I’m looking at either Nerwen or Lommy. Slightly more the latter. Even with the argument between Aganzir, I’m not seeing a wolf or wolves trying to cast opinions around, but two innocents, with Lommy looking more so.
This second Day she’s shown a level of interest and ability in the game that I value in a representative, and hopefully with her reason can make sure we avoid another incident as yesterday, so…

++Lommy for Representative

Originally Posted by morm

I am not at all satisfied with Nerwen today and still will likely vote for her. Her tactics today indicate to me somebody who is trying to be very involved and helpful, but when I see so many quotes it seems that she is just making long posts to show how 'helpful' she is being...I don't buy it. I still think she played the ignorance card to help her buy immunity today which is working in most minds.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The fact that Gil didn't vote for a representative (or actually post other than that short row with Shasta) looks like he's an innocent. I suggest he should not be lynched. Had he a role he would have been a lot more engaged says my experience with him.

Hah, figure this: Nogrod is saying we should leave a submarine alive on the first Days!

Hmm...the last bit of that quote is interesting. But I'd be quite disappointed if Gil was wolf...but that doesn't mean it's entirely impossible.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Nerwen's gigantic task of going through the discussion between myself and Boro made me first think she was trying to be a bit too helpful without actually contributing anything (and morm actually commented on that as well) but then I realised that if I had time in my hands and were not a party to the debate I might have done the same thing... So I don't think we can actually make a point on that.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But then looking at Kath's posting I get two kind of vibes. Firstly she seems to be more benign in her relation to me that I remember her ever being. And surely, voting or suspecting someone just because you tend to suspect that one "every time" is stupid and maybe she has gotten over it? So maybe I'm just the slower one just trying to catch that possibility, but her slight trust on me (= she's not trying to lynch me immediately) looks a bit suspicious to me.

But the second vibe is that her pointing at Greenie looks like something I hadn't quite concentrated on myself. And I must admit I'm the worst person to look at her as her father I'm totally blind to her. But there's something in that kind of principled stance she has that makes me feel a bit insecure with her. It's like the most you get from her posts is that she is an individual who dares to attack guys like tp on style & stance issues. But she seems to be a bit careful with her opinions when it comes to actual suspicions making her a super-wolf when she is one. (Yeah, my problem with her is that I partly think that's the way sahe is and partly I think is she fooling me - and others - with exactly that)

Originally Posted by morm

Ilya and Nogrod are beginning to catch my eye a bit more but Nerwen still will get my vote. She is playing very smart and I'm fairly confident we have one on our hands here. Anyway I will try to catch up later, hopefully before voting time but it is doubtful.

++Lynch Nerwen

Is a wolf-on-wolf vote possible here? Nerwen was pretty heavily suspected at the time, which makes me think it less likely she's a wolf. But is it impossible? No. I remember last time Boro was a wolf, he went quite viciously after his fellow wolves...I could imagine morm doing the same.

The unknowns about the wolves:

Originally Posted by Gwath

Based on his vote against me yesterDay, I am inclined to think that Nogrod is innocent. It seems unlikely to me that a werewolf, having been voted into power, would proceed to risk alienating half of his constituency by trying to have them executed.

Well, obviously that's not so. One possibility if Nogrod and Gwath were both wolves is that after Gwath voted his mate as rep (as fellow wolf morm already did), Nogrod attempted to distance himself from Gwath by voting to lynch him.

Originally Posted by Rune

Mormegil: There is a few things I do not agree with in his posts, such as his views on who would make a good Representative. Anyways besides minor things I think it is a very reasonable post he has put together here and a very good analysis of the Representatives votes. . . Or rather the fact that he points out Ilya’s vote as being the safe “look good vote” and that Nogrod’s should not be taken as a sign of innocents.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Now, I will happily admit all the above goes for me. But as I'm not a wolf, I have to turn my glance elsewhere. Nogrod strikes me as a person who would suggest a kill like McC to his fellows.

I think a wolf would be less likely to bring such a comment up about their fellow.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Well I can't help but think that from a reasonable player such as Nog this really looks like a vague argument. Truly, that argument looks like grasping at straws more than anything else. (Or then it's just me when I really saw nothing at all suspicious about Leggie's SW jokes.) Anyhow, I don't know how would it serve a wolf-Nog to make such a vague case on Legate when he already had suspicions and voting candidates of his own. Perhaps if he wanted to give the other reps more fuel for lynching Legate without joining the bandwagon himself... But really, I'm not sure - otherwise Nog has looked quite innocent so I don't quite buy my own argument yet...

Originally Posted by Lommy

Also, I don't like morm's and Ilya's suspicions of Legate. They just don't look genuine.

Originally Posted by Lommy

mormegil - I don't know, really, he just seems evil and I don't like some of his arguments or his behaviour late yeterDay.
Nogrod - he's too diplomatic, too smooth. It's his cardinal mistake as a wolf. And he would have killed McC. However, the consensus against him makes me think him more innocent (weirdly) and also, like I said, I don't think I want to see him go toDay.
The Ka - her posting style in this game is rather unsettling.

Already suspects all of the wolves, which again makes me think her less likely to be their packmate.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

*sigh* You're so predictable, morm.

1. I did not "parrot" the phantom's comments on McCaber. I agreed with him.

2. I really did think there was a ranger. I'm in the middle of exams, and I ended up just skimming the rules– which are exceptionally long and complicated. I am quite insulted that you think I'd try an idiotic wolf-cub ploy like pretending not to know the rules.

Could this exchange be between two wolves? I'm not sure...

Nogrod - My theory about why he suddenly jumped on Legate on poor grounds combined with the night kill of McCaber (yes, I too thought about Nog or someone framing Nog being behind it...) makes me feel uneasy about him.

mormegil - Has given me no reason whatsoever to suspect him. Feels genuine and reasonable and raises good points.

The Ka - Now if Nerwen is sneaky, then what is Ka? (answer: very sneaky.)

Argh, another quote where I forgot to put a name next to. I think it might be Greenie's.

Originally Posted by Greenie

First of all, I think Nogrod's behaviour toDay has been quite odd. He seems somehow very aggressive (ahem - I mean, more than usual ) and seems to get heated very easily. The way he reacts to tp's and Boro's posts about him looks really like overreacting and playing the martyr to me. That over-confident "you say this about me, which I don't like, so you are either wolf or stupid: and because I know you can do better and are not stupid, it means you are a wolf!" -attitude doesn't sit right with me. Also, I still don't like his traditional "you know I'm not the kind of player who does that" -argument.

Hmm...there seemed to be a lot of suspicion of Nogrod on this Day, yet no one voted to lynch him. It's possible one of the Noggie suspectors was a fellow wolf.

Originally Posted by Greenie

++ morm for representative

Because, like I said, I want new faces to the reps, and of the two people on my innocent list who haven't yet been reps morm was the one who already hasn't been voted as a rep as I believe Lommie just received her second vote. Besides, I'm slightly more comfortable with morm than with Lommy at the moment, though I believe both are innocents. Also, morm's suspicions are not too far from my own and I judge him capable of good decisions if he indeed is an innocent villager like I believe he is.

Originally Posted by Rune

Nogrod: “I don't know if you have come to a conclusion about McCaber being killed or not but to me it looks very puzzling indeed. And it makes me wonder. Why not tp? Why not Boro? Why not me? (add any player you think being a major threat to the wolves). There is no ranger so they roam free at Nights. So why not?”

Will you get you pompous behind down from your high horse mister!
In which way do present a more real threat to the wolves than McCaber did? Where is it written that because you talk a lot on day one means that you will come up with a great theory later in the game, chances are that you will be wrong in all of your suspicions. . .that would not be a first. . .and that McCaber would pick out one of the wolves.
And the fact that you pretend not to see a reason to why McCaber was killed seems extremely suspicious, the only problem is that it seems too obvious.

Originally Posted by Rune

++Mormegil for Representative

It stood between him and Boromir, both have made exelent cases for their view points through out the day. I am not saying that they are innocent, but I like their way of going about things and also some of the stuff they say. . . I want a my Representative to have style and not be afraid of saying things as they are.

Originally Posted by Ilya

Nogrod - I...I just don't follow Nog's arguments. At least he's being consistent in his perplexing nature, though, voting for Gwath because Gwath's confidence in him had sinister "possible intentions behind it" and now voting for Boro, despite Boro going after him, and despite not trusting Boro. I had trouble following Legate, though, and maybe it's just a style thing that's making Nog hard to read. I mean, I feel like a wolf wouldn't be this blithe. But all this contradictory stuff...consider my eyebrows raised.

Haven't done Morm, Nerwen, The Ka, or Gwath yet, but I've got other stuff to write tonight, so I'll have to hold off. The Ka, I think, is kosher. The other three smell slightly of pork.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Nog's vote for Boro also seemed a bit weird. If he doesn't trust Boro but wants to see how he uses the power given him, why wasn't it enough for him that Boro was elected a rep? I don't know if I can explain this, but to me it seems very risky to give a person you suspect a third vote just to "check his cards". To elect such a person for rep makes some sense; but giving him a third vote doesn't look quite logical to me.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

On the other hand, the quarrel toDay looks pretty genuine, and Boro makes some good points against Nogrod (even if he did confuse us all with his balogna). Which makes Nogrod's vote for him all the more puzzling.

Conclusion: no good evidence of a link between Boro and Nogrod... Their behaviour doesn't entirely rule it out either, but it's not what I'd call a "case".

I have absolutely no idea what to think of Noggie. He seems paranoid.

I accidentally marked this quote to be by Nogrod. Obviously I messed up. I can't remember who it belongs to.

morm - he's flown under my radar a bit but I suspect that's because he's one of these that makes quite long posts and my currently slightly limited time does force me to skim read a bit so I'm probably just missing the substance that he is putting in there. Ooh, though actually he did say that thing about phantom being overly silly. My feeling on that is that if phantom is playing up he's not anything that matters.

Ka - her usual self I think, playing around, which again makes me feel pretty good about her.

Nog - Now this is a really bizarre thing ... I have no opinion on him, and that's just unheard of with me and Nog. I suspect it's because I think he's innocent and I can't bear to believe that! But there you go.

Gah, I didn't mark this one either!

My problem is that the three I suspect the most right now are the phantom, morm and Nogrod. And although I have kind of got rid of the way of thinking that you need exceptionally good reasons to lynch a veteran loudmouth ( ) it would feel silly to lynch one after that was already done with not-so-spectacular results yesterDay. Or actually, I think it's just that I think I suspect them simply because they have caught my attention by making such a show by being loud and aggressive.

I would otherwise seriously consider Ka, but I wonder if she'd vote me for a rep after I had listed her in my suspicious category if she was a wolf...

Or this one...but I'm almost positive it's by Lommy.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I'm not sure what to think about this thing between Boromir and Nogrod. Could be that they're just two ordos scuffling about. I doubt they're both wolves. If one of them is a baddie, my money's on Nogrod. His arguments and defenses just don't feel as honest as Boromir's.

mormegil is either a wise and influential innocent or a dangerous wolf. But which one? That is why I'm slightly scared and not entirely trusting of him.

The Ka has the least amount of posts. She's been sliding too much under the radar for my taste....where is she anyway?

[Brinniel]

Day 3

The wolves about the unknowns:

Originally Posted by morm

Nerwen's 'that's predictable' statement does nothing to allay my fears. I understand the explination somewhat but the way in which her and Boro came out firing on those seems odd and I already suspected Nerwen and again this does not help.

Originally Posted by morm

On Gil, is there any risk of mod-fire from lack of participation? I don' remember reading that but I find it highly aggrivating and totally irresponsible to do this.

Originally Posted by Nogrod about Gil

I'm daring to believe this is good news looking at this game. It means we can count him within our numbers, that is when the tally is done.

But you who haven't played with him should also know that his history in WW hasn't been the most pleasant one to be honest as he tended to get lynched or killed everytime he played quite early with basically the same reasons he got picked on in this one...

Some of you of course didn't know that and I'm believing that was unintentional. But you might wish to send him a PM after the game? Just a suggestion...

Looks like it could be an honest comment.

Originally Posted by morm

++Lommy for Rep

Okay so I'm likely to be a bit more hit and miss for the remainder of the day and I would like to get my vote out there. I think Lommy the most innocent and I have a degree of trust in her. She is responsible and wise. She will do what she finds best with her vote and she has a similar mind to me.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

First Nerwen's initial answer to Agan looks pretty odd because of a few things.

First she tries to nullify it with the fact that Agan changed her mind during the Day. She indeed casts suspicion on Agan for doing a Legate 180 twice (with Lommy earlier) - while the original Legate 180 was an innocent one!
Secondly she still left it open, leaving reservations like it would be clumsy for an Aganwolf - which is true indeed.

But clearly it looks bad for Nerwen. She defends herself strongly (with bad reasons, look the first point above) not to get lynched but still tries to leave a considerate aftertaste to us others while preceeding to kill her at Night (point two), right? So Nerwolf thought that as Agan's case was so bad she could have been a seer? And therefore... end of story.

Hmm...two wolves going against a fellow wolf? That seems less likely to me. But not entirely impossible.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Gil-Galad whom I think is innocent but may not return to the game. Let's hope he does.

Kath I'm very unsure of as she seems to trust me somewhat (at least the last time she was around of which some time has really gone) and I find it slightly suspicious. Maybe I should just start to learn to be a bit more grown-up and stop suspecting her everytime (I quess this is the second time I'm saying this; now what does it tell? ). But she really should post more. I'm not inclined to suggest her lynching anyway, at this point at least.

Gwath I'd just like to see more. I have no clear picture of him. Sometimes I think not even a picture... where are you?

Also Brinn has been relatively quiet toDay. But so far I have no idea. She looks reasonable but that's what she always does. And that really bothers me right now.

Then there are Rune, Sally, Shasta, Greenie and Ilya who are all falllng into my category "I really should pay more attention to them as they do actually post". Somehow my mind has been in other places (thanks Boro & tp ). I'll promise to look at at least some of them tomorrow (the rep-day that is).

The people I have a "better" vision (meaning I think I have something) on remain.

Lommy looks and feels genuine, from her defence from Agan's attack to her frustration with Boro and tp toDay.

Nerwen is either a wolf or a victim of a nasty plot made by wolves. Her defences can be interpreted both ways. I have no clear feeling on her but if I'd had to be the one to vote the lynch at this moment I would probably try her (or then The Ka, just to be sure).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That leaves me Kath basically. I know she has a cool mind and I'd wish to see her in the delegation to balance this black and white -looking situation. Once again it's half trust, half curiosity. I think we can afford yet another try for that.

And I think she hasn't made a comment on Boro and tp for a few Days now so she might have fresh eyes for that.

++ Kath for representative

Originally Posted by Ka

++Greenie for Rep

Originally Posted by morm

For example, Lommy feels very much like Lommy and despite her style being the type that grates me a bit because she feels the same I feel she is innocent.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Boro and tp are wolves something like that would be their only chance of avoiding the seer's eyes.

And who'd be their mates then? Looking at all of this, morm and Rune might be reasonable candidates. If the other "side" of the wolfpack had to pull that kind of a bluff - and were still in danger of being dreamt of - the other party should be very suspiciousof them, right? So if either "duo" prevailed in the beginning the other might carry it home as they would look clean and nice going after the other "pair" (see the mutual distrust between those "pairs" in this game).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Sally I have no idea of. Kath said she was acting more serious than normally and that was the case when she was a wolf last time. I think I need to take a look on that.

The Ka seems to be the submarine and I'd like to lynch her just to be sure.

And I'd like to test my theory as well with morm or Rune but seeing that morm is having a vote I think that with him it would be a vote wasted unless you all went for it.

Both Rune and Greenie have voted morm for a representative the last two Days... So maybe I was wrong and the wolves really thought it important to get one of their kind into the electorate this early?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay I checked back on Sally.

I don't know. I'm not sharing Kath's thoughts of her being more serious or composed than normal. I mean the last time she was a wolf she was indeed being a bit too focused for her own good.

But she did vote Greenie as a representative and then again Greenie's vote for tp was no surprise.

On the other hand - and following that - she decided to go all the way appeasing tp with all that talkabout Dr. Who and the various ways of spelling that.

Like "I try to lynch you via choosing a rep to do that and immediately start playing it personally nice with you"?

Also her post about her suspicions were as follows:

So leaving tp at the end of the list and saying "preferably the former" with the reason we could after that "go on with our lives" - like tp wouldn't be the prime obstacle to that? (Sorry tp - see, no rolleyes!) - but still making sure her representative would be after tp?

That I think is suspicious.

The unknowns about the wolves:

Originally Posted by Greenie

I'M UNEASY ABOUT
Noggins-Woggins - Generally he's been making me quite uneasy. Some actions of his are really weird, such as giving a third vote to a Boro he didn't trust (you still haven't explained that, by the way - I believe you just explained why it's sensible to vote for someone you don't trust, but it didn't answer the question why you gave him a third vote when he was already through...). Also, I still don't like his role in Legate's lynch. Hmmm.

I'M NOT UNEASY ABOUT
mormegil - Brings up good points, behaves sensibly and has done nothing to arouse my suspicions.

I HAVEN'T GOT A CLUE ABOUT
The Ka - The same as with Gwath. Hope they are having fun under the reindeer/rainbow/whatever...

Originally Posted by Greenie

Morm, then, is the one whose innocence I feel the most sure about, for some unknown reason.

Originally Posted by Rune

About Nogrod: I cannot put my finger on it, but something seems different about him in this game. I don't know if it is just because he has been more or less ignoring my existance or there is something more sinicter behind. Little Green does not seem to trust him and bases her fears on his votes, of the two vote I see the Legate as the more incriminating one. Not that the Boromir vote is not odd, but this Representative-thing brings in a whole new side to the game.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Funnily, I'm feeling good about morm and Nog. Probably because they share my doubts considering Boro and tp.

Could be a bit too bold for a wolf to say..

Originally Posted by Lommy

Innocentish
morm - I don't know, he just seems very innocent toDay.

Middle
Gil, Gwath, THE Ka - not enough material to go on.
Nogrod - I think he seems rather innocent now, but he has been rather suspicious in the past... He's curiously distant in this game and I can't get a proper read on him.

In conclusion: I have very little idea who to vote for a rep. I'd be tempted of picking one of those that strike me as innocent but slip under my radar but I don't really know.. somehow I'd be more comfortable voting either morm or Shasta.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I'll vote

++morm for rep

Originally Posted by Kath

++NOG for Rep

Yes, yes, faint in shock at the thought of my trusting the ever-suspicious Nogbod, but I have actually come to terms with the fact that I think he's innocent. There are a few others I might have voted for. phantom is one (loving the tummy thing btw morm, it makes me laugh every time I see it!), Lommy is another. But toDay I'm going with Nog, I think it's good for me to get over this 'it's Nog! He must be evil' thing and this is as good a way as any.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Semi-Suspicious
Nogrod

No Clue
mormegil

Where did they go?
Ka

Originally Posted by Gwath

I understood part of his point to be that if the village finds you suspicious, then you're doing something suspicious - protests and ploys notwithstanding. You have a responsibility to play in a way that conforms to the system of popular suspicion that rules Ww, so if you are attracting too much attention, then either change or defend yourself just like all the other players. Don't ask players to take your innocence for granted.

I hope I am not misrepresenting you, Nogrod.

The very last sentence is a bit fishy. It's like it was added in there "just in case" Noggie turns out to be a wolf, so that defending him doesn't look suspicious.

Originally Posted by Ilya

Boys Becoming Men, Men Becoming Wolves
My initial, gut suspicions were of Agan, Brinn, Morm, and Nerwen. Even though I've already been proven wrong, they still hold.
Nogrod has phrased things in ways that are weird. I think the concerns raised about a "lynching distraction" are legit, whether Nog's a concerned citizen or a wolf trying to take the high road. I dunno which.

Originally Posted by Rune

It is true that Morm has not gathered suspicion and that in it self is suspicious ergo Morm AKA Geil is a wolf!

Actually it has been bothering me that Morm has been regarted so innocent, but there really is very little reason to suspect him.

Originally Posted by Rune

Here you go Morm, now send Boromir to the dark abyss that awaits him.

++MormeGeil for Representative

Very bold and suspicious looking. But perhaps too bold?

Originally Posted by Rune

I voted Morm insted of Kath, as I felt that I had more of an idea who he might vote for and I felt quite comfortable with the options.

Originally Posted by Brinn

morm is a bit creepy....he actually reminds me slightly of [Boromir] from the first half of my WW game (and for those who weren't in that game, Boro was a wolf). Simply because of how he manages to slide from Day to Day so easily without suspicion. He's definitely someone to keep an eye on.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I may throw in as a sort of gut-feeling that I think that Ilya is a wolf, after all. Possibly Nerwen and Rune too. Hmmm... who would I throw in as the last one? Ka?

Originally Posted by Lommy

no idea:
Rune, Nogrod, Gil, Gwath, morm, Brinn

seem suspicious:
Ka - has talked some, but not said much and I think she tends to talk more serious stuff when she's innocent and more nicely phrased nonsense when she's guilty

Originally Posted by Ilya

Let's leave Boro and TP alone for the time being Rune, Morm and whoever else is still trying to pick at their argument. Even if they are wolves, there are two others out there, and I can't help but think that one of them jumped on The Alliance yesterday. I think their ploy, if it was to draw fire, worked - though morm brings up a good point in that I dunno how they would've been able to coordinate it without communicating.

Originally Posted by Sally

People I'd like to see get lynched. ToDay. Mehbe.
Morm or Boro or Phantom (preferably one of the former, as then we can get on with our lives. heh.)

Originally Posted by Greenie

I'M UNEASY about:
Nogrod - Still hasn't answered the question I have asked something like three times? So I ask again: why did you give a third rep vote to a Boro you didn't trust when he was already through anyway? Nog's been more innocentish toDay than before, but I'm still uneasy about him.

I'M NOT UNEASY about:
morm - Nothing new.

I HAVE NO IDEA about:
The Ka - Has posted more toDay and I'm glad to see it; but there is still too little to go on with there, I fear.

Originally Posted by Kath

morm - I think he's more annoyed than truly suspicious, but that annoyance makes him disinclined to look at alternative explanations for things and so he finds things suspicious that maybe aren't. Says that Nerwen is backtracking, but no she isn't, she's explaining. She said the kill was predictable and then she explained why she thought that, no backtracking there.

Nog - is just against phantom in general I think. I mean I completely agree that phantom's playing style drives you up the wall, although not me this game for some reason, so I get the frustration, but what I don't think Nog has are any actual reasons.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I do not suspect Nerwen after all. I totally forgot about the ranger-mistake. I think she wouldn't have cheated that way if she was a wolf... Now you two are probably happy to know that this makes me more suspicious of morm who keeps insisting on Nerwen's guilt for rather flimsy reasons. But it would be really ironic if morm happened to be a baddie in the first game ever I've started to trust him even a little...

Originally Posted by Lommy

I feel like voting Ka or Ilya or Gwath. Or maybe sally, Rune or morm. No idea... Any (reasoned) preferences, anyone?

Originally Posted by Lommy

++THE Ka

That's the closest I can get to a reasonable vote toDay. She's a submarine the likes of which we can't really afford, and like I've said, she tnds to have more serious stuff to say when she's innocent.

I don't think it's very likely this is a wolf-on-wolf vote. But again, it's not impossible. Lommy voted for her early on and perhaps didn't expect her to actually get lynched.

Originally Posted by Rune

I don't know what it is with you Nogrod, I constantly get the feeling that you are playing differently and that I should take a close look at you.
The problem is that when I do so, I find very little actual suspicous behaviour and I have actually read through most of your post in search of such.

Maybe you have been more vaugue than normaly, not sticking you neck out too much. . .

Anyways you are on my list over people I am slightly suspicous of together with Ilya, Nerwen, Brinn and Ka.

Originally Posted by Gwath

I probably wouldn't have voted for The KA. What's the reasoning behind that vote? Lots of us have been super quiet so far, so why KA? I suppose I always feel uncomfortable voting for submarines because there is so little substance on which to assess them - and I always have an especially hard time discerning between quiet wolves and quiet ordos.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

morm –Looks less wolfish to me lately, but that may be because he's no longer going after me. He stresses this to Lommy, but that's actually quite irrelevent– until he got distracted by Boro he most certainly was making a case against me, and a highly specious one at that.

Nogrod –you know why I said we should look at the McCaber kill, and then didn't say what I thought it might mean? I wanted to see if anyone else would independently think it pointed to him. That's a very trivial thing indeed, mind you.

Originally Posted by Brinn

morm: As I mentioned to Boro earlier, I do actually find him rather creepy.

Noggie: He's someone I need to take a closer look at toMorrow. Why do I feel like he's being inconsistent and all over the place? I don't know...his behaviour just seems odd.

Ka: She's already dead, but I'll share my opinion on the matter anyway. She's been so quiet and submarine-ish, it's something I find quite unsettling. Though honestly I don't think I would've chosen to lynch her toDay as there are others who I suspect more and it would've been nice to give her another Day to defend herself...though I suppose there wasn't much guarantee that she'd even show up to do that...

[Brinniel]

Day 4

Unknowns' reactions to Boro's reveal and the wolves' guilt:

Originally Posted by Gwath

KA, huh? Ok, well, I'm glad my rep is smarter than me.

Originally Posted by Ilya

Ka, huh? Well, one of the submarines had to be lupine.

I kinda find it funny that Gwath and Ilya's reactions to Ka's death look so similar. Especially when put next to each other.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Firstly– R.I.P. Shasta! And nice work from our reps... As I said, I probably wouldn't have voted for Ka if it had been up to me.


So you're the Seer, Boro? I thought it was the phantom.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I'd be very happy to run for office on a "lynch morm" ticket. Just for the good of the village, you understand.

She seems a bit eager here. Perhaps using eagerness to hide her fur?

Originally Posted by Gwath

Well, Boro, since morm has more or less admitted his guilt, I'm on board for whatever you want to do. Just give the word.

Originally Posted by Sally

I'm in, obviously. (I made an actual post, but then my friend stopped by and by now what I said wouldn't make a lot of sense. Boiled down to "Boro I love you and I'm really glad I sensed something was upp-ish with Morm before I voted him as a rep" and other sundry)

I'll also be around right at deadline tomorrow (meaning the end of the first part of the Day), so (not to blow my own horn) if y'all want me to be a rep I'd be delighted!

She's another who is rather eager.

Originally Posted by Rune

I officially detest Mormegil, the one time I convince my self to look elswhere for wolves he turns out to be one and what more is I actually supportet my case with some of his arguments. You got me Morm, I capitulate.

This is the worst game ever. . .
The only positive thing so far is that Nogrod turned out to be wolf (or so it seems), it just shows that sometimes that feeling that someone plays differently is better than an actual case. (where you try to exclude such feelings)

The worst game? I wouldn't think so. Even if you've mistaken your thoughts of a wolf, that is something that happens quite often. Could Rune be feeling a bit bitter now that his mates have been revealed?

Originally Posted by Greenie

Argh. All my fine theories all muddled up... Oh well. So I voted a wolf for rep twice. How nice. I had a beautiful theory on why Nog's a wolf but it's no use now since he's officially revealed wolf. And the once I got something figured... Gah. Frustrating.

On a more serious note, good job Boro - I don't know whether I would have instantly believed your claim but morm's confession cleared it... I'm still wondering why he did it, though.

Actually, I think her reaction looks the most innocent compared to everyone else.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Boro and Phantom! I love you! Want to know why? Because I outwitted you, after all! Boy, I feel clever right now.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Nog - calm down, will you? No need to get heated. Please if you think/know those two are wrong then give us some logical proof. Prove their arguments wrong and I'll be sure to reconsider. As long as your theory has flaws such as the morm thing Gwath already pointed out, I can't take it seriously.

Originally Posted by Gwath

I've been waiting to see what Nogrod would say. It proved to be unsatisfactory.

Originally Posted by Rune

I tried to read through what has happened, but I just end up confused and agitated.

If things are not as they seem. . .well I am just going to take it as it comes, I will see you sometime tomorrow.

I just don't understand why he's so agitated. If he's truly innocent, he should be happy that three wolves have been bagged in two Days, not frustrated.

Originally Posted by Sally

Oooo! A Plan!!!
Not that it's worth much, but....

Phantom and Sally vote Nog.

Boro and Nerwen vote Morm.

Rocks fall, everybody (well, Nog and Morm anyway) dies.

Yes, I pretty much just want to bloody feel useful in this village.

Again, I find her overly-eager.

Originally Posted by Sally

Oi, Nog. Shut up.

Hehe. Alternatively, we're not going to listen to you anyway, so feel free to spam, erm, post to your heart's content, my little friend.

Originally Posted by Sally

Girl's gotta do what a girl's gotta do, fellas. Sorry.

Huh? This response to morm calling her a wolf is weird. Could it be a wolf slip?

Originally Posted by Rune

Nogrod, you are such a drama queen!

You know very well that given the events that have taken place, the village could have taken no other action than what have been done. We all know that there is a risk that we are being manipulated by evil-doers, but that is a risk we must take.

If you had been in our shoes you would have done the same. . . so please stop the whining.

Hey now, it wasn't long ago that you were complaining about how this was the worst game ever because you were wrong about one player...

Originally Posted by Ilya

So, I read through everything, but there's not all that much to say, other than "Yay us," I suppose. I can't even begin to unravel Nog's shenanigans. The next Day is gonna be sick, y'all.

-------------------------

So yeah, if you guys didn't think there was enough to talk about toDay, there you go.

[Brinniel]

Goodness, I'm floodposting even more than the phantom.

Okay, so some thoughts:

Gil-Galad: I still don't think he's the last wolf. Kath raises a good point that if he were the wolf, there probably wouldn't have been a kill. And if he is killing at Night and intentionally not posting during the Day, that is very unsporty.

Greenie: Even after looking at those quotes, I still can't get a read on her.

Gwathagor: He's made quite a few comments that I find rather fishy. He's someone I can imagine as the final wolf.

Ilya: I don't think that quote by Nogrod really says anything about her innocence or guilt. She doesn't seem to make as big of a presence in all those quotes, but that could be because she's a bit quieter.

Lommy: As of now, she looks the most innocent to me. Now not only because of Agan's death, but also because of comments and suspicions she made.

Kath: She's another I'm not getting a terribly good read of based off of the quotes alone. The only thing I find discomforting about her is that her presence was so brief yesterDay, but then again she usually is quiet.

Nerwen: morm's suspicion of her doesn't mean too much to me, but then when Nogrod suspects her too, I wonder how likely two wolves would go after a mate when she does have a chance getting lynched. While I don't want to eliminate the possibility, I think it's less likely.

Rune: He looked okay up until yesterDay...I really don't like his reactions to Boromir's reveal. It looked like someone who was frustrated that his entire team was in trouble and was having trouble hiding such frustrations.

Sally: I do find her eagerness to lynch the wolves suspicious. It could be a cover-up to how she feels about the real situation.

the phantom: A known innocent. While we can listen to him toDay knowing he speaks with complete honesty, we don't actually have to talk about him for once.

So...

Suspicious:
Gwath
Rune
Sally

No Idea:
Greenie
Ilya
Kath
Nerwen

Innocent/ish:
Gil
Lommy
the phantom

[Kath]

Oh bum - having almost determined that Gwath was a wolf in the previous post I can find very little to be suspicious about with anyone else. I might leave it a couple of hours and try and come back with fresh eyes.

[Kath]

Huh ... and having said that if Brinn continues to make those extremely long quote posts I'll put her on the likely to be a wolf list just for the principle of the thing!