Tol-in-Gaurhoth LI: The Pain of Wargs - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Gaunt · 10-13-2008, 12:38 PM

Ok, I have to go home now so won't be on again today.

Here's how I think the rest of the game will go:

Hopefully tonight Gollum will be voted off, as between him and Gwath I am more confident of his status as a wolf.

Then I predict the surviving wolf will kill either myself or Thinlomien.

Hopefully though, the villagers will be convinced enough to then vote Gwath, thus rooting out the two wolves and winning the game.

Now this all assumes my suspicions of Gollum and Gwath are correct. Now it is possible, but I think doubtful, that one of the wolves is Kath. If Kath votes for Gwath rather than Gollum, or indeed anyone else rather than Gollum, I think this possibility remains open, but Gwath is still more likely.

It may be because he has not been on much, but Gollum has offered pretty much nothing in defence against strong suspicions directed at him.

Of course, I could be completely wrong!

All said, tonight I am voting for:

++Gollum

Gollum the Great · 10-13-2008, 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaunt

Hopefully tonight Gollum will be voted off, as between him and Gwath I am more confident of his status as a wolf

From Legate to Lommy to Gaunt!

Quote:

It may be because he has not been on much, but Gollum has offered pretty much nothing in defence against strong suspicions directed at him.

I think I said previously that I have trouble stating the reasons for my suspicions, and I possess the same issue regarding my defence.

Quote:

Of course, I could be completely wrong!

Believe me, you are.

Thinlómien · 10-13-2008, 01:06 PM

Okay, I had a quick look at Gwath, Di, Gaunt and Golly. Didn't find much.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gwath

Hello Diamond18.
EDIT: We haven't heard from Gaunt yet toDay, have we? Gaunt? You there

Yet this sounds like Gwath is not a fellow of Diamond's (he would be more careful of doing anything as random as greeting her) but could be one of Gaunt's (the careless way he mentions him).

The four hardly mention each other, and when they do, it's nothing noteworthy (except maybe that one Gwath-comment). Gollum and Gwath still strike me as more suspicious than Di and Gaunt.

But more will be clear when we know the role of even one of them.

edit: xed with Gollum

Mithalwen · 10-13-2008, 01:11 PM

I hpe Gaunt is inspired rather than manipulative. Can't help not entirely trusting someone who has a clue what is going on...

Kath · 10-13-2008, 01:57 PM

Quote:

If Kath votes for Gwath rather than Gollum, or indeed anyone else rather than Gollum, I think this possibility remains open, but Gwath is still more likely.

Oh Gaunt! Why did you have to say that? It makes me feel like a child with a big red button, all you want to do is press it to see what happens ... or in this case vote away from Gollum.

But no, I have been very impressed by your reasoning toDay and am inclined to trust you. You aren't the only person to have been suspicious of Gollum either, there has been on/off suspicion of him quite a bit over the Days. I did intend to go back and look at him myself but we were catching up on weekend TV and I ran out of time a bit. I do need to vote now though so:

++GOLLUM

Thinlómien · 10-13-2008, 02:17 PM

Huh, pretty silent here and only 25 minutes to go anymore... and the lynch looks rather unanimous this far, which is always a bad thing... and I must admit I too suspect Gollum the most... but not much more than Gwath. Hmmm...

Thinlómien · 10-13-2008, 02:21 PM

Okay... let's make this a little more interesting...

++Gwath

edit: xed with Mith and Gwath

Mithalwen · 10-13-2008, 02:25 PM

Events have overtaken me ..... so since for once I am reasonably comfortable with Kath add something to the mix....

Bit mean since I have been even quieter but she is soooooooo cunning

++Diamond 18

Mithalwen · 10-13-2008, 02:19 PM

It seems that I have lost my voice metaphorically as well as literally. I am struggling with this one and am finding hard to concentrate. But the fact is that of the people remaining the only person who I have suspected at all is Lommie but everyone else seems to assume she is out of the frame.

Don't see what is so suspicious about Gollum - he is a bit self obsessed but a lot of people are ... especially when new..... really have to decide soon as I am shivering too much to type properly...

Thinlómien · 10-13-2008, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I hpe Gaunt is inspired rather than manipulative. Can't help not entirely trusting someone who has a clue what is going on...

Well, we can't discount the option of him being a bluffing wolf, but I like his theory too much. Or then he is a wolf who is telling the truth.

Mithalwen · 10-13-2008, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Well, we can't discount the option of him being a bluffing wolf, but I like his theory too much. Or then he is a wolf who is telling the truth.

That is what worries me. Since in my last game as a wolf we obeyed Phantom's law and told the truth (apart from Boro's crazy ranger act)... we said exactly why Kath was killed and so on and it never got picked up on.... and Mithalwen's law states that certainty is the mark of a beast.... but that will have to be looked at another day. Too late for today...

Thinlómien · 10-13-2008, 02:37 PM

I guess everybody has voted now...?
Let's hope we were right.... *crosses fingers*

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 10-13-2008, 02:41 PM

Voting is closed. Gollum will die soon.

Gwathagor · 10-13-2008, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaunt

Ok, I have to go home now so won't be on again today.

Here's how I think the rest of the game will go:

Hopefully tonight Gollum will be voted off, as between him and Gwath I am more confident of his status as a wolf.

Then I predict the surviving wolf will kill either myself or Thinlomien.

Hopefully though, the villagers will be convinced enough to then vote Gwath, thus rooting out the two wolves and winning the game.

EDIT: Crossed with Lommy and Mith

Now this all assumes my suspicions of Gollum and Gwath are correct. Now it is possible, but I think doubtful, that one of the wolves is Kath. If Kath votes for Gwath rather than Gollum, or indeed anyone else rather than Gollum, I think this possibility remains open, but Gwath is still more likely.

It may be because he has not been on much, but Gollum has offered pretty much nothing in defence against strong suspicions directed at him.

Of course, I could be completely wrong!

All said, tonight I am voting for:

++Gollum

You are far too certain of yourself, Gaunt. The odds are slim that you could deduce one out of two wolves, but it can be done. However, nailing both of them with one fell swoop of logic is nigh on impossible.

Besides, conspicuous lack of participation is a terrible strategy if BOTH werewolves are going to employ it. Silence can be a clever shield, but only if done in such a way that one does not attract attention. Attention gets you killed in Werewolf.

I'm watching you toMorrow, Gaunt. I don't like your self-assurance (maybe it's just too reminiscent of the phantom

), but I'm going to hope that it's the first game syndrome. I was the same way.

I am suspicious of Gollum, but I can't help feeling that traitors have been overlooked. I also don't feel that enough evidence has been built up against him; but GtheG has evidently become toDay's default vote (read in cynical tone), and he's the only player I have given any real thought to. No shots in the dark toDay, I'm playing it safe.

++Gollum

10-13-2008, 01:11 PM	#4
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,461	I hpe Gaunt is inspired rather than manipulative. Can't help not entirely trusting someone who has a clue what is going on... __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

10-13-2008, 02:17 PM	#6
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	Huh, pretty silent here and only 25 minutes to go anymore... and the lynch looks rather unanimous this far, which is always a bad thing... and I must admit I too suspect Gollum the most... but not much more than Gwath. Hmmm... __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

10-13-2008, 02:21 PM	#7
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	Okay... let's make this a little more interesting... ++Gwath edit: xed with Mith and Gwath __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

10-13-2008, 02:25 PM	#8
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,461	Events have overtaken me ..... so since for once I am reasonably comfortable with Kath add something to the mix.... Bit mean since I have been even quieter but she is soooooooo cunning ++Diamond 18 __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

10-13-2008, 02:19 PM	#9
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,461	It seems that I have lost my voice metaphorically as well as literally. I am struggling with this one and am finding hard to concentrate. But the fact is that of the people remaining the only person who I have suspected at all is Lommie but everyone else seems to assume she is out of the frame. Don't see what is so suspicious about Gollum - he is a bit self obsessed but a lot of people are ... especially when new..... really have to decide soon as I am shivering too much to type properly... __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

10-13-2008, 12:38 PM	#1
Gaunt Animated Skeleton Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: The bleak splendour of the north. Ok, Aberdeen. Posts: 28	Ok, I have to go home now so won't be on again today. Here's how I think the rest of the game will go: Hopefully tonight Gollum will be voted off, as between him and Gwath I am more confident of his status as a wolf. Then I predict the surviving wolf will kill either myself or Thinlomien. Hopefully though, the villagers will be convinced enough to then vote Gwath, thus rooting out the two wolves and winning the game. Now this all assumes my suspicions of Gollum and Gwath are correct. Now it is possible, but I think doubtful, that one of the wolves is Kath. If Kath votes for Gwath rather than Gollum, or indeed anyone else rather than Gollum, I think this possibility remains open, but Gwath is still more likely. It may be because he has not been on much, but Gollum has offered pretty much nothing in defence against strong suspicions directed at him. Of course, I could be completely wrong! All said, tonight I am voting for: ++Gollum

10-13-2008, 02:37 PM	#12
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	I guess everybody has voted now...? Let's hope we were right.... crosses fingers __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

10-13-2008, 02:41 PM	#13
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	Voting is closed. Gollum will die soon. __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

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