Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[Mithalwen]

I am sure one of you clever folk will probably spot a gaping hole in my reasoning but would it be completely stupid to lynch Kitanna if we don't get a better idea. We are going to lose her anyway? I know it doesn't get us a wolf (unless she is one) but we can't do any other harm?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I am sure one of you clever folk will probably spot a gaping hole in my reasoning but would it be completely stupid to lynch Kitanna if we don't get a better idea. We are going to lose her anyway? I know it doesn't get us a wolf (unless she is one) but we can't do any other harm?

That actually sounds like an ok idea. It'd better than going for the 8/9 possiblity of getting an innocent.
The problem is that Day 1 will lose its value even more, until at least Day 3, when it might be already too late. We can't analyse people, as we don't have anything to go on. And this might make Day 2 almost as unproductive as Day 1 (but we will still have the WW kill and possibly the Cobbler Assassin kill). Because we'll have much less to work with, we might, at worst, lose 4 of our number (that's a third) by the beginning of Day 3 (two wrong lynches and two night kills) and then we'd not have many chances left.
On the other hand, even if worse comes to worst, we'd only lose 4 all in all. If we lynch someone else today, who turns out not to be a wolf, but is an innocent then we could at maximum lose 5, which would be devastating for us.

But is it risk we should take? I'm not sure...

edit: x-ed since Lommy #75

[the phantom]

Rats! I've lost my business partner!

Okay Mith, as far as your idea about lynching her... hmm....

On one hand I can't imagine that she's gifted, so lynching her would ensure that we didn't have a complete Day 1 disaster.

On the other hand we will lose a chance to catch a baddie.

Now, earlier I said that the goal of a Cobbler is to die during the day, and we have a greater chance of hitting a Cobbler than a Gifted or WW. But that said, lynching a Cobbler today would not be a victory for them as compared to lynching Kitanna, for the loss of Kitanna is already a guarantee! She's going to die. And therefore lynching a Cobbler when a death is already in the bag would surely be a loss for the evil team.

So all in all I think we might want to try our luck and lynch someone else.

[Gwathagor]

I agree that a lynch should be considered a valuable opportunity to rid ourselves of a wolf, but how often do we get a wolf on the first Day? I don't doubt that it has happened, but never in any of the games I've played in. Most successful lynches occur later on in the game, as a result of the build up of the information necessary to form a case against a wolf, which is not present at the beginning of the game. One could argue that the village merely has better odds of getting a wolf as the game progresses, but I'm not a complete cynic and I don't believe that a successful lynch is purely the result of luck. If we did believe that, we wouldn't bother arguing. So, why risk losing two innocents on the first night, when we could just lynch Kitanna, who we're going to lose anyway, and keep the maximum amount of villagers possible alive as long as possible, thereby buying ourselves time to sift out the wolves?

[Mithalwen]

Gwath - there are a dozen or so of us who call ourselves Fenris Wolves because we were lynched first day so it does happen but I don't think we have added to the pack for a while and we do only have 2 wolves - though aided by four fellow travellers. So teh odds are reduced.