Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Roa_Aoife · 06-09-2008, 12:10 AM

Izzie Analysis

Day 1

Post 1 - Suggests Multitasking and hunting for both the EW and the wolves. Doesn't believe the GW or the EW would reveal to their teams.

Quiet post just chiming in on the current debates. Not terribly suspicious for a first post.

Post 2 - Thinks it may be possible to protect a wolf turned ordo and get information. Doesn't see a reason why usual wolf hunting methods won't work. Says the wizards are likely going to be people with out a lot of time contraints, etc., but we can't rule out anyone 100%.

Post 3 - Finds phantom cowardly, sheepish, and fatalistic. Suggests he should be actively hunting for wolves instead of insisting we're all doomed.

*snicker* Okay, besides that oh so satisfying content, I notice that she doesn't actively hunt herself, either.

Post 4 - Votes Roa

Where did that come from? Especially since I'd been saying everything she'd said, only louder and first.

Post 5 - question about deadline

Post 6 - was confused about time, surprised at size of village.

Not a lot of content from her, especially in way of suspicions.Her vote for me kind of came out of left field.

Day 2

Post 1 - Finds the page of silliness is suspicious, doesn't think speculating on who Volo dreamed of the previous Night will be useful since we can't know for sure, points out that we will be going into a large number of wolves soon. Doesn't see the need for all the vote tallies being posted, since they don't change.

Again, her first post is pretty straightforward. She doesn't say anything that isn't true.

Post 2 - finds phantom suspicious. Doesn't buy his reasoning for not voting and explains why

I think I found my shadow... I didn't realize that anyone else thought the same way I did, which concerns me a little. She slips so well under-the radar...

Post 3 - Still doesn't think phantom had a good reason for withholding his vote.

Post 4 - Response to phantom: "Does beautifully = truthfully without hidden agendas?"

Post 5 - Explains that previous vote was almost random. Thinks both phantom and Roa are suspicious. Says Brin can't use what Volo did to weigh her opinions too heavily because he likely didn't know much yet.

She never did explain her suspicion of me. For phantom it seems quite clear, and she says all the same things I did.

Post 6 - Says she's always "submarine like," says she'll post more if/when she has time. Leaning towards voting phantom or Roa.

Still doesn't explain why she thinks I'm suspicious.

Post 7 - Vote Roa.

No, seriously, where is that coming from. All of her suspicion is pointed towards phantom, except for one or two posts that say she doesn't trust me but doesn't give a reason, where as she gives lots of reasons for not trusting phantom, and yet she votes me with out explanation.

Post 8 - says her vote may be throw away, but she wants to vote for someone she's looked at, not someone she hasn't.

When exactly did she look at me?

Day 3

Post 1 - doesn't believe there are any ex-wolves because the numbers don't support it.

Post 2 - Curious about Cailin's behavior at deadline

Mentions suspicious behavior with out saying that it's suspicious.

Post 3 - Says "she" could have easily posted what she did to keep us analyzing it and wasting time.

I assume the she is Agan?

Post 4 - Asks Gwath why he analyzed Cailin

Post 5 - Considers voting for Diamond for too much joking around; Thinks Lommy and Agan may have been baddies together; Wants to look more closely at Lal; POints out that Greenie has been less active than her; wouldn't mind voting for Cailin either

At least here she gives some reasoning. Though she suspected the seer, everyone does that at one point or another.

Post 6 - Says she could vote phantom, VOTES DI

She's been saying phantom was suspicious since Day 1, and yet never votes for him. Does anyone else find that odd? Because I really do.

Post 7 - Comment on all the reveals, thinks Di said that phantom was a wolf

Post 8 - Agrees with Brin about Cailin

Day 4

Post 1 - Thinks that the EW scried either the GW or a gifted. Thinks phantom slipped and let everyone know that Di was not the true GW, and offers to point it out. Thinks that phantom must have been scried and is no longer a gifted.

This post is fairly erroneous. She doesn't account for the Ranger, and simply assumes that the other of our two gifted was scried, when we can't know that at all.

Conclusion: She says somethings that are sensical and does some things that aren't. Actions speak louder than words,even on a discussion board. She's definitely and odd one, and I would like to hear why she voted me twice with out any explanation.

Lalaith · 06-09-2008, 12:37 AM

I've got to go to work so I've no time to do my list of people now. If its still needed when I get back later (around 5pm) I'll happily provide it then.

I will say this though, I still feel really uncomfortable about Lommy from yesterday.

Isabellkya · 06-09-2008, 01:05 AM

*I'm here post*

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa

This post is fairly erroneous. She doesn't account for the Ranger, and simply assumes that the other of our two gifted was scried, when we can't know that at all.

I'll just respond to this now, and the other stuff can wait for my next post.

There was only one wolf kill last night.
One kill = less than four wolves.
Two kills = 4+ wolves.

Going into Night 4 we had a Seer and a Hunter, in terms of gifteds.
since Mac our Ranger was killed Night 3, a new one could not of been scried until last Night (Night 4.)
Since there was only one kill last night, logically it means that the EW did not scry a new wolf to their team. Rather, they scried either the GW or the Hunter. Since they chose to kill the Seer, they obviously did not scry her.
If they had scried the new Ranger, we would've known about it. Both wizards scrying the same person during the night = death from too much magic. Which leaves the Hunter and GW. Why choose a shot in the dark with trying to scry the GW whom they may not know, when they have a supposed hunter out in plain view?

Brinniel · 06-09-2008, 01:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Izzy

Going into Night 4 we had a Seer and a Hunter, in terms of gifteds.
since Mac our Ranger was killed Night 3, a new one could not of been scried until last Night (Night 4.)
Since there was only one kill last night, logically it means that the EW did not scry a new wolf to their team. Rather, they scried either the GW or the Hunter. Since they chose to kill the Seer, they obviously did not scry her.
If they had scried the new Ranger, we would've known about it. Both wizards scrying the same person during the night = death from too much magic. Which leaves the Hunter and GW. Why choose a shot in the dark with trying to scry the GW whom they may not know, when they have a supposed hunter out in plain view?

Ehm Izzy, you're forgetting that it could also go the other way around.

Another reason there may be only three wolves could be because either the GW scryed a gifted or the EW. Also, even though the ranger would've been scryed only last Night (if we have one), they can still use that gift the same Night. Though I do doubt the ranger successfully protected...I think it would've been mentioned in the narration.

Isabellkya · 06-09-2008, 02:02 AM

Got sidetracked...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa #986

Of course, there is also the fact that there was only one kill last night, which means that the EW did NOT scry another wolf. Either the EW scried the hunter, and the hunter is now an ordo among us, or the the EW scried the GW, in which case we may expect a challenge soon, but not necessarily. Especially if the evil team is down so low.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa #1083

Roa in response to my post #997 : This post is fairly erroneous. She doesn't account for the Ranger, and simply assumes that the other of our two gifted was scried, when we can't know that at all.

Oh really. If my post was erroneous, then I believe yours is as well.

Brin, I'd completely forgotten about that, though I would like to hope that we have a new Ranger.

A Little Green · 06-09-2008, 02:42 AM

Okay, I'll post a little before I'm off, I'll be back not quite soon but very well before the deadline anyway.

Firstly, phantom: Did it ever occur to you that some players (not me, but some others) might not be here anymore in eight hours? I think this "I'll tell you when it suits me" business is getting really annoying. (You're not some exceptionally important person - even if you aren't bluffing, you're a hunter, not the GW...)

Secondly, I'll probably make a list as well, not for tp but for myself and the whole village. Not sure whether I'll have time to do it before I leave. If not, expect it in... ummm... eight hours?

Sorry to be a bit cross - it's just that the leaderly attitude is getting on my nerves.

One more thing I'll do when I'm back (with the condition that you don't post too many pages for me to read while I'm away

): I'll check at yesterDay's reveal mess. I think the most suspicious people there are not those who are not ready to trust phantom right away but those who do not question anything and just silently go with the flow. There were those, I'm quite sure, but I don't know just who they were.

Brinniel · 06-09-2008, 04:45 AM

So begins my summarising of the long list of players. Mind you, I'm only looking through posts from yesterDay and toDay (and that's a task in itself) since at least one ordo has become a wolf since Day 2. Though I will take some of my previous thoughts of others and their behaviour into account...just not entirely.

Greenie: Still seems very, if even more genuine. I think it's most probable that she is innocent. However, I would like to see her post even more (though maybe it's because Lommy hogs the computer

).

Shasta: I was surprised by the post count of Shasta...right now it's to 63. Now, about half of those posts are banter and not of any substance, but he does make a lot of useful posts as well. What worries me is that I know he does not typically post this often...looking at previous games he's posted nowhere near 63 ever...especially not by Day 4. So I can't help but wonder what it could possibly mean that he's so much more involved than normal..

Izzy: I'm feeling a bit better about her. She doesn't write as much content as I would like, but none of the stuff screams guilty. And while a couple of her posts were erroneous, those errors (like forgetting that the GW can scry wolves and the EW) seem more like mistakes from an ordo.

Lommy: Umm...I don't want to flood this post with tons of quotes, but there are tons of her's that stick out to be. I want to make a more detailed analysis of her later. Let's just say for now it's not looking good...

Nilp: Still needs to post more. I still have no idea. While nothing about him is immediately suspicious, I still want to keep an eye on him. I just don't want him to slip under the radar.

Eonwe: Really needs to post more (and vote), and something of substance. That said, even though he's a newbie I still think he'd be posting more and actually voting were he a wolf.

Kath: My love, you are slipping under the radar. Please post more. Nothing about you seems terribly suspicious, but I don't like that you're so quiet.

Sally: She was acting her silly self before, and so far nothing seems to have changed about her behaviour. I still think she's innocent.

Rikae: So obviously evil. But wolf or EW? Hmmm....

phantom: Part of me wants to believe him, but the other half screams "No, don't trust him!" There's a good chance he's telling the truth in all of this and really is a servant of the GW. But what a clever scheme it would be if he were evil and our seer not realising it, decided to trust him.

Lhuna: Well, her posts do look more innocentish than guilty to me...but remembering how quickly I once disgarded a Lhuna-wolf as innocent, I don't want to so quickly drop her in the innocent pile.

Durelin: Seems sensible enough. Though she didn't post much yesterDay and not at all yet toDay. But I don't see anything suspicious about her.

Roa: The problem I have with Roa is that she was the first one to quickly believe Rikae in her claims as the GW. She backs away to "if" later on, but still openly defends her. That makes me nervous, as I can't understand how she (or anyone else) could've seen truth in that claim...it just seemed faulty to me. But would a wolf (or EW) be so bold? Typically I'd say no, but Roa's known to be bold...

Legate: Confuses me. Nothing in his posts scream guilty, but honestly can't tell which side he's on.

Lalaith: Was much more active yesterDay. Her theories were interesting ones, even with flaws...don't see how Lommy thinks she could be the EW. She looks pretty innocent to me.

morm: Not much to say about him, but I'm glad to see he's posting a bit more toDay. Still looks pretty innocent.

Celuien: Where are you? Seriously, she has totally slipped under my radar, which is dangerous. Looking through yesterDay's posts, I noticed she flip flops some...but other than that, I can't really grasp an opinion on her.

Gwath: His vote for Rikae was too hasty for my liking, but I'm pretty sure that's the mistake of an ordo. And how easily the wolves could set him up for a lynching because he was "too hasty." Otherwise, he seems sensible to me and probably innocent.

McCaber: He knows he is a "submarine," but still won't post much at all. And his few posts don't have much content. I don't like it at all. Please post more!

*phew* Now onto my post about Lommy...

Brinniel · 06-09-2008, 05:06 AM

Just some things that caught my eye:

First off, her arguments against Aganzir. I wanted to look at it yesterDay, but I'm doing it now. While she's clearly suspecting Aganzir, she is hesitant to actually vote her. Her arguments become very intense...yet she does not want to take the blame if Aganzir is innocent. I don't know...something just seems wrong here. If Lommy's evil, it could've been A) a fight between two wolves who didn't know each other B) a fight between wolves who did know each other C) a planned fight between a wolf and the EW.

Now a few quotes:

Quote: