Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, it has a little bit to do with him. But only because a lot of what I said about the EW was in response to him. I see that a lot of people just breezed by those posts because they didn't want to get involved. So, as I survive another day without being killed or wolf-ified, I'm going to recompile all that I said. Please read it.

Originally Posted by Me

Or the EW could have counted on people assuming that no one obvious would be picked and so picked the most obvious. We can't know for certain, and so we shouldn't rule anyone out.

Originally Posted by me

The reason the EW may not want the wolves to know her identity is because if the GW scries a werewolf, that wolf imediately changes sides and becomes an ordo. More importantly, an ordo who knows the identity of the EW and can share it with the village. Each wizard wants to protect their own identity sso that they can challenge the other wizard on their own terms, ie. when the conditions are in favor of their respective teams. So the EW is hesitant to the wolves any information.

Originally Posted by me

Every EW will work differently. The EW could have picked someone who was high profile as a smokescreen to hide behind. Look, the second we start ruling people out, those are the people the EW will pick. Trust me on that one- I was there. Let's not make the choice any easier for her. Trying to avoid the GW was only one of concerns, and it was more from the fact that I'd be discovered by him if we scried the same person at the same time. He was theonly one who could stop me, and so he was the only one I feared. That is no longer a problem.

When I was the EW, I picked wolves from all over. I had high profile wolves, I had under-the-radar wolves, I had wolves that I planned to sacrifice. I'm trying to share what I learned from my experience with the village. Never rule anyone out as a potential wolf, and no one except the GW is a known innocent until they're dead.

Originally Posted by me

Also, on the point of the deaths of Volo and Kitanna- it is more likely that they were killed because the EW believed them likely scries by the GW, and she picked correctly for one of them. I hope for the sake of our gifteds that the GW is scattering his choices around abit, and not sticking to players of certain qualities.

Originally Posted by me

You may be right in that the EW would not want to risk it. But I was the EW, and I did risk it. Heck, I was down a wolf (due to the double pick fiasco) and I still did it. So your definite "NO" is definitely not definite.

Also, I don't know why you are so certain that the EW gave her wolves possible lynch candidates. I never did, and my wolves did just fine. The GW did something like that for the entire village, but only after his role had been revealed. In fact, I even encouraged my wolves to lynch as they liked. Someone acts suspiciously? Lynch them! It makes the wolves harder to trace because they aren't having to lie about their suspicions.

Originally Posted by me

That's very nice, it's true. However, there are more options than that available. The EW may be willing to give up that extra kill for one Night in order to act out another more sinister plan. Not all of us think that simply, and it's folly to suggest that the current EW must think that way.

Originally Posted by me

It's about making assumptions about the EW's behavior which have little backing other than your own preference, which the EW may or may not share. So, you can't expect us to rule out this possibility just because you wouldn't do it.

Originally Posted by me

And how do you know what the EW believes is necessary?

Originally Posted by me

Again, why are you so certain of this? What in past history has led you to believe that this is the way the EW will operate? There's no logic or proof behind this theory, ...., and it can be dangerous if everyone assumes it's true if it's not. We could be led on a wild goose chase trying to figure out a supposed short list of lynchees that doesn't really exist.

Originally Posted by me

First, phantom, you're statistics aren't even logical, because you leave out : a. the hunter, b. the ranger, and c. the EW herself, who might change a gifted into an ordo instead of an ordo into a gifted, thus keeping the wolf population down.

Second, those who think losing the seer isn't such a bad thing, consider what would happen if it was Day 4 and the EW knew the GW's identity. She could then challenge and take the GW out before she had a chance to replace the seer, and the village would be in trouble. Who was saying that again?

Originally Posted by me

The EW:

In the last game, I took care to avoid people that might be scried by the GW, not so much because I was worried about losing a wolf (until morm accidentally found me out) but because if we scried the same people on the same Night, my identity would be revealed. That is not the case this game. If the wolf doesn't know anything, then losing him to the GW may not be so bad. However, if the GW and the EW scry the same person in a Night, that person dies. This is a third kill for the evil team! The GW is the one who will be avoiding scrying possible EW picks in order to keep innocents from dying. (Which, by the way, is why I believe the phantom will not be picked by the GW.)

So lose the mentality that the EW won't pick likely GW scries for scrying. It will only mislead you into to looking away from those that could be wolves. Until we know who the EW is, we have no way of knowing who they might have picked. YOU CANNOT RULE ANYONE OUT FOR THE REASON THAT THEY ARE UNLIKELY PICKS. The EW may have very well counted on that thinking. Until we know who the EW is, you must look at everyone with equal possibility.

Edit: cross posted.... Oh my

[Roa_Aoife]

Rikae, I'm assuming that your seer dreamed him?

And phantom wasn't evil when your seer dreamed him? When was that?

[Roa_Aoife]

And the first him I'm reffering to is Legate.

Is he a wolf or the EW?

[Rikae]

I didn't say anybody dreamed tp at all.

EDIT: X'd with Roa and Diamond. Legate is a wolf.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I didn't say anybody dreamed tp at all.

EDIT: X'd with Roa and Diamond. Legate is a wolf.

But you said you knew he wasn't the EW. How else could you know for certain?

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

But you said you knew he wasn't the EW. How else could you know for certain?

Possibly because she knows who the EW is?

Are we going to get a duel today?

[Rikae]

No duel allowed until toMorrow - everything will be revealed then.

[Diamond18]

Ah, right.

Yeah, I just ran to read the rules.

Day 4 reveals all.

[Rikae]

Also - sorry to leave you folks in the lurch like this, but I have to go out and won't be back until shortly before DL. You know what to do.

[Lalaith]

Ah, there you are, Roa. I wanted to ask you stuff about EWing.

EW gave her wolves possible lynch candidates. I never did, and my wolves did just fine

Ok, that's interesting. I would assume that an EW would guide her wolves.

And - did you really not use your scries to try to find the GW? Or did you find him so early that you could devote your time just to making wolves? As I seem to remember I think the latter scenario was the case, that your wolves found Gurthang pretty early on.

Oh and another question - can we trust anything you tell us now?

[Lalaith]

And I want to know from Rikae, if you really are the GW, why in heaven's name have you declared now?

[the phantom]

The voting-

Nilp for Rikae
Lhuna for Sally
Izzy for Di
Rikae for Rikae

Originally Posted by Lal

And - did you really not use your scries to try to find the GW?

No, the EW won't be looking for the GW with scries. The EW wants to make WWs with scries. That's it.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Ok, that's interesting. I would assume that an EW would guide her wolves.

I picked highly intelligent and very capable wolves that could survive without my help. I also picked wolves that I could easily sacrifice to draw attention away from me if needed. The only "guidance" I gave them was telling them who to kill every night. Morm and Eomer were two of my wolves. They can verify that. Once morm discovered who I was (by accident) then I became more involved in what he was doing. And I actually told him to keep on after Eomer.

And - did you really not use your scries to try to find the GW? Or did you find him so early that you could devote your time just to making wolves? As I seem to remember I think the latter scenario was the case, that your wolves found Gurthang pretty early on.

I never tried to use my scries to find the GW. I used my wolves and attacked people I thought might be the GW. That's how I found him, by the way. I just focused my scryings on making the ultimate werewolf team.

Oh and another question - can we trust anything you tell us now?

Probably not now, but that's why I quoted myself. Those are direct quotes with everything I've said about the EW. You can check to see for yourself if I've changed my tune anywhere down the line.

Or I said yesterDay, you can lynch me, and then you'll know for certain that I'm on the up and up. If Rikae is telling the truth, though, it will be up to you- lynch a definite baddie, or lynch a possible baddie, but at least you'll know if you can trust her or not. Of course, if I'm not a wolf toDay, I may be toMorrow, and you won't know for certain.

Edit: Cross posted. Rikae, you can't just expect to lynch Legate with out telling us who he is. And Lal's got a point- why reveal now?

[Roa_Aoife]

Legate, have you been killing off our family? You are SO grounded.

[Roa_Aoife]

Look, if Rikae knows that Legate is the EW, not a wolf, then I don't want to lynch him. He won't die, and it will just take up our llynch space so that we don't lynch a wolf.

But if Legate is a wolf then we should definitely lynch him.

Unfornately, Rikae didn't specify. And she didn't tell us why she revealed. Was she in danger? I haven't finished reading through the thread yet....

[Lalaith]

I used my wolves and attacked people I thought might be the GW. That's how I found him, by the way. I just focused my scryings on making the ultimate werewolf team.

And you never scried me. *sniff*

Ok. Our WW kills so far have been Volo on Night One, Mac and Ka on Night 2. Like I said before, possibly Volo was a GW-hunt kill but not I think the second two.
Also, I've read through the rules and I don't see if the EW is told if the reason the kill has been unsuccessful. A non-kill could be a Ranger protect, after all.
I still think my theory could hold.

Rikae running away without answering my question or even saying why she won't answer it, is worrying me.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

And you never scried me. *sniff*

I was too afraid you'd be scried by the GW in the same night that I scried you. (Which would lead to everyone knowing who I am.) You were simply too desirable early on. And later on, I was distracted by Gurthang's lynch list.

[Lalaith]

You were simply too desirable early on

But come on villagers, seriously, we need to debate this situation. Looks like both Roa and phantom are as puzzled as me. Anyone else around? What do y'all think?

[the phantom]

Okay, I felt the need to say this real quickly-

If this is a bluff, GW, do not take the bait and reveal! Not unless you really honestly feel like you are ready. This might be a ploy set up the Night before by the EW to get the GW to reveal. Perhaps the EW told his WW Rikae, "If this person or this person looks like they're headed for a lynching, reveal as the GW and get Legate lynched."

Which of course means that Rikae might be a WW and even know the identity of a WW or two! In which case we should not lynch her! We should give the GW the opportunity to scry her and turn her back to the good side.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Rikae running away without answering my question or even saying why she won't answer it, is worrying me.

Rikae's entire point in revealing as the GW, so far, seems to be to get Legate lynched.

Which... seems like a bad reason to reveal, to me. Sorry to question you, Mumsie. But is Legate that important that you had to out yourself? Or were you afraid of the EW challenging you before you could direct the village? Or... well why the heck did you reveal and then leave until the DL? You know we're just going to have tons of questions for you.

[Diamond18]

I'd like to get Legate's take on all this, actually.

If he's an innocent being set up by a lying Rikae, then I suspect we'll be getting an impassioned defense.

I'm not so sure what he'd do as a wolf, though. It might be reason to clam up and not say too much more, as anything he says from now on can (and will) be held against his fellow wolves or the EW. Just a guess.

So..... Legate?

[the phantom]

I don't see a reason to hide the EW's identity from us, I mean, there can be no duel before tomorrow but that doesn't mean you can't tell us who the EW is?

Actually, there's a darn good reason not to tell us if she knows.

Which is why, from her hints that she has found the EW, I suspect that she has, in fact, not found the EW.

And also suspect that she's not telling the truth about being the GW.

Why reveal now? I'm going over and over it, and it isn't making sense to me.

If you really know the EW already, why not hold your tongue and try to get the drop on him tomorrow?

But now the EW will know it's the last chance he has tonight. And what if the night goes well for him? Then he knows precisely who to challenge.

No, no, no... I'm sitting here at home, and in front of me is a chart with listed behaviors of the EW and GW- things they would and wouldn't do in specific situations.

And Day 3, down a gifted, revealing, and even hinting that you know the EW... that definitely does not match up with my list. I am severely confused.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Roa

Unfornately, Rikae didn't specify. And she didn't tell us why she revealed. Was she in danger?

Ah, Roa is suspicious too! I'm feeling even better about my suspicions.

And further slanting me is the fact that I have been feeling Legate as strongly innocent. No, no... I've got to think.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by the phantom

And also suspect that she's not telling the truth about being the GW.

There IS a chance she could be doing this just to out the Good Wizard. As a wolf or the EW. I mean, let's take the assumption that she is lying.

-- Her whole reason, it would seem, for claiming to be the GW, is so we'll obey her and lynch Legate.

-- She is, obviously, giving us no direction beyond that.

-- Does a GW gain more or lose more by outing herself just to catch one little wolfie?

-- Who was garnering lots of suspicion ANYWAY?

-- But a Bad Momma could achieve a lot by claiming to be the GW, telling the village who to lynch. The GW is then forced to consider letting a (presumably) innocent Legate die, or reveal.

-- It's a lose lose situation for the village, if this is the case.

-- So, since a false reveal is a bad thing for the village, it's a distinct possibility that it might (or has) happened.

Wow. Sorry Rikae, but as of right now, I DON'T know what to do. Should I trust you? Who else do I trust? Even if you're lying, I really don't think the GW is going to reveal... e might be willing to sacrifice Legate. So we seem to be on our own trying to figure this out.

No, no, no... I'm sitting here at home, and in front of me is a chart with listed behaviors of the EW and GW- things they would and wouldn't do in specific situations.

Is this a color coded chart, by any chance?

Hey, it's me, I have to make some jokes even in the heat of Day 3.

[mormegil]

++Lommy

I've read most of the posts today but probably not the last 30 or 40. Anyway, I've been showing my home as we are trying to sell it. Lommy seems a bit off lately but the impression I'm getting is that something is up with Rikae and/or Lommy. I've been going with gut a lot more than hard rationality.

[Roa_Aoife]

Morm, you really should have caught up first. We've had some... interesting developments.