Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Diamond18]

By the by, a look at the posting counts surprised me. Shasta has the second most number of posts (behind, well do I even have to say?) yet I don't think he's garnered near the attention.

Hmmmm. I may have to break down and review his posts. Cheerful killer that he is.

[the phantom]

I just walked in the door. First, I shall post my case.

Then, I will catch up on what everyone's said today.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

By the by, a look at the posting counts surprised me. Shasta has the second most number of posts (behind, well do I even have to say?) yet I don't think he's garnered near the attention.

Hmmmm. I may have to break down and review his posts. Cheerful killer that he is.

That surprises me, too.

[Gwathagor]

This may or may not be helpful to anyone else besides myself. That's OK.


CAILIN
Post #51
Recommends we try to catch both WWs and EW. Suggests that the EW will try to scry those who the GW would not and those who are less “illustrious”, but then disregards this and all such theories as useless speculation. I believe her position on speculation does an about-face later on.

Post #58
States again that she imagines the EW would select wolves from those the GW would be unlikely to scry. Posts list of Likely Wolves. This is composed of Lalaith, Izzy, Aganzir (good call), Herself, Kitanna, Kath, Legate, Eonwe, Volo, Mormegil, and Lhuna. Her list of Likely Innocents: Lommy, TP, Diamond18, Macalaure, Rikae, Roa, Nilp, Brinn, Durelin.

Post #63
Says that Volo’s “we wolves” was probably a mistake and not a wolf slip. Fair enough.

Post #78
Now says it’s worthwhile to speculate regarding who would apply for Wizard positions, and who would be chosen as a wolf. Is this not a contradiction of what she said earlier in #51?

Post #96
Responds to Aganzir’s suspicion. Defends speculation again.

Post #101
THE Ka is at the top of Cailin’s suspect list, based on an unfortunate misquoting by Roa which Ka perpetuated. Cailin’s suspicion is understandable at this point, I suppose, as there is little else to go on in Day 1.

Post #105
This is the first post where anyone really goes after Nerwen. Cailin takes on Nerwen’s first post: “This is a very suspicious first post. Nerwen takes a long time to do nothing but criticise other people's ideas and post signs indicating potential wolvish behaviour. She's also giving wolves a nice guide on how not to act. I can't see what she hopes to achieve with this, other than to look helpful and serious in the eyes of the casual reader.” It seems a stretch to get all this out of Nerwen’s post.

Nerwen’s criticisms regarding methods of finding an EW or WW seemed legitimate to me, and not particularly long. Also, it seems like a gross misrepresentation on Cailin’s part to say that Nerwen’s guide to the behavior of werewolves is more helpful to the wolves than it is to the innocents.

Post #108
In response to Nerwen, states again that it’s unnecessary to state common wolf tactics, because we know them already.

Post #123
Dislikes Nerwen even more for voting her following their disagreement, but say that she’s still thinking about voting Ka for “carelessly copying Roa’s misquote” about her (Cailin). It seems to me that she’s fishing for a bandwagon, either Nerwen or Ka, but could care less which one goes down.

Post #127
Points out that TP seems to be playing the role of villager as a neutral one. Also suggests that TP might be a bluffing wizard, but doubts he is a wolf.

Post #165
Votes Nerwen here (beginning of Nerwen bandwagon), because she doesn’t have any other substantial suspicions. Restates her accusations from #105: Nerwen merely spends a long time criticizing others in order to gain a position on “the pedestal of sense.” THE Ka seems to have disappeared inexplicably from the suspicion-radar by this point…

Post #315
Analyzes Volo. No, that’s inaccurate. Really, she just sums up all his posts without actually interpreting them. A lot of work, but not much help. Trying to achieve a spot on the good old pedestal of sense? Also sums up Kitanna’s posts.

Apologizes to Nerwen, because she didn’t think everyone would follow her vote the way they did. She was flabbergasted, in fact. Oops.

Claims to have a “crackpot theory” regarding someone else who looks “mighty suspicious”, but won’t reveal it yet. Let’s see if she does!

Post #337
Acknowledges that there’s not much to gain from looking at Volo and Kitanna. Recommends that we ignore the Roa/TP fight, as they’re likely “two proud ordos going at it.”

Post #359
Suggests that sally is way to appease and make friends. Finds her suspicious for this, and, I think, legitimately points out that sally voted for TP the Day before, but is now joking about with him, which seems a curious switching of attitudes.

Post #371
Jumps on my statement that I think either Roa or TP is bad, and finds my reasoning odd. I didn’t actually give any reasoning, but she suggests possible reasons I might have, and which she finds unpersuasive. She makes me sound pretty bad, though. Maybe she really doesn’t want us inspecting Roa vs. TP. If the case, I doubt her motivation is good.

Post #412
Announces that Diamond seems less than innocent, and runs off to take a closer look.

Post #416
Can’t find a single interesting point that Diamond has made. I agree, actually. By this point, Diamond has been entertaining (keep it up!), but not especially helpful. Cailin thinks Diamond may be a baddie hiding in the open. I think this is legitimate.

Post #434
Not sure who to vote for, but is suspicious of Sally, Brinniel, Diamond, and me.

Post #466
Concedes that Ka’s accidental misquote may have been an honest mistake, but maintains that it’s not a bad cause for suspicion. I think she’s wrong about this; an accidental copying of a misquote is an awfully flimsy basis for a vote. Denies jumping on Nerwen, but I really don’t think you can describe the situation any other way. They definitely jumped on each other, though Nerwen’s post addressed multiple people, and only mentioned Cailin briefly.

Post #480
In response to Brinniel: says it would be as correct to say that she jumped on Nerwen as to say that Nerwen jumped on her. She’s right about this. Also, Cailin doesn’t like what she calls Brinniel’s single-mindedness regarding the who-jumped-on-whom issue.

Post #498
Creeped out by McCaber. Wants to keep Lalaith alive. Uneasy about TP. Curious about but hesitant to vote for Brinniel. Asks if anyone wants to vote for sally or me. Looks to me like she’s fishing for a bandwagon again. TP offers to take her up on the offer and vote for me (in post #504), but seems to think it’s not logistically feasible. McCaber suggests that it could be done.

Post #514
Wants to vote for me, because I’m creepier than the other candidates. I thought McCaber was the creepy one. Not anymore, I suppose, since he’s willing to support her anti-Gwath campaign.

Post #526
Cailin says: “Nay, I know people are watching. I'm testing to see if there is support. I don't want to throw away my vote.” I’m not sure who she means this is reference to.

Post #532
Disappointed that no one (i.e. not enough people to get one of us killed) wanted to vote against sally or gwath.

Post #537
Votes Aganzir. This is the final and deciding vote for Aganzir. If Cailin is a wolf, then she's likely voting off the Safe Votes For Wolves list (if it exists).







So, Cailin does some really bad stuff. She start the Nerwen bandwagon, bases her suspicion of Ka on a copying of an accidental misquote, makes weird apparent contradictions, seems to fish around for public support before voting, misrepresents aspects of Nerwen's posts, and vehemently wants us to not inspect the Roa/TP debate.



But she also casts the vote that gets Aganzir killed, which means that either she is a wolf who decided to risk sacrificing her fellow in order to build her own reputation, an innocent who made some mistakes early on, or a wolf who got scried over somewhere in between Nerwen's death and Aganzir's death.



I have to say that based on the frequently weak, exaggerated, or non-existent reasoning of her posts, coupled with her tendency to drop suspects once it's clear they won't be lynched, I really don't like the way Cailin looks right now. However, whether I vote her or not will depend largely on what happens toDay. I mean to take closer looks at legate and tp as well.

EDIT: Crossed with just about everyone. This beast of a post took me several hours, and I feel rather bad putting you all through it.

[Diamond18]

That's a pretty damning analysis of Caillie, Gwath. I'm not sure what I'd think of it if I didn't already suspect Cailin (hey, I may use a joking tone, but milk curdling evil was not an understatement) but it is all very... confirmatory.

Kinda wish she's show her bones today and refute (not the least because I love a good refutation of a damning analysis) but even if she never does, I'm not adverse to the notion of lynching her.

One thing I wonder -- has Eomer been doing any posting for her? I know there was some kind of mention of him stepping to help in if she got too busy (or something) but I don't recall if he was going to announce this substitution or just post seamlessly. Just bringing it up because if it were so it might explain some inconsistencies or seeming differences in manner.

Ah, this brings back fond memories of Not-Cailin.

[Cailín]

From Eomer.

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

So, Cailin does some really bad stuff. She start the Nerwen bandwagon, bases her suspicion of Ka on a copying of an accidental misquote, makes weird apparent contradictions, seems to fish around for public support before voting, misrepresents aspects of Nerwen's posts, and vehemently wants us to not inspect the Roa/TP debate.



But she also casts the vote that gets Aganzir killed, which means that either she is a wolf who decided to risk sacrificing her fellow in order to build her own reputation, an innocent who made some mistakes early on, or a wolf who got scried over somewhere in between Nerwen's death and Aganzir's death.



I have to say that based on the frequently weak, exaggerated, or non-existent reasoning of her posts, coupled with her tendency to drop suspects once it's clear they won't be lynched, I really don't like the way Cailin looks right now. However, whether I vote her or not will depend largely on what happens toDay. I mean to take closer looks at legate and tp as well.

Ok.

I won't do a post-by-post riposte because it would be too long and no-one would read it. But I noticed a couple of little things you mention that seem pretty unfair to me (something about a contradiction in my first 4 posts? ) If I don't address something specific that you want, please remind me.

I think it was Lhuna who argued in my favour about your Nerwen ''bandwagon''. What I did had nothing to do with a bandwagon: I voted for someone with no votes who I found suspicious.

I really don't see what's hard to understand about that thing with The Ka. It's happened in games before: a lazy wolf, looking for a case to build, gathers together someone else's work and re-jigs it a bit. That's what I suspected. Roa mistakenly put my name atop a Celuien post, and The Ka copied Roa's post in talking about me, not the original. This looked like a lazy attempt to keep my name in the suspicion realm. I changed my mind after seeing Ka's response, which felt sincere to me.

I seem to fish around for public support? Yes, of course. I don't want to throw away my vote. Had I not done so yesterday Mac might have tied with Aganzir. It doesn't mean I drop my suspicions; it means that I must wait for another day. Gwath, the spin you put on what is basic voting tactics is remarkable.

As for misrepresenting Nerwen's post, I'm not sure I agree with that. What I will agree with is that I got it totally wrong. You say I managed to squeeze a lot from Nerwen's first post, but really I was looking for an archetypal first Wolf post. Nerwen's looked a likely one to me.

Vehemently want you to stop looking at Roa and the phantom? I simply said, in one line, not to focus on them. Your suggestion, Gwath, now that's misrepresentation!


Well, that's that. I'll look back to see if the phantom offered more.

[Lhunardawen]

I don't quite get this, dear son-in-law. Why say that? (Greenie)

She quoted from post 590, where I repeated what I said yesterDAY: Agan might have voted for Nerwen, giving the Healer a two-vote lead, cos she feared that some of those who haven't voted yet (myself, Lhuna, and Kath) might show up and vote for her. Which, in light of my belief in communicating Wolves, makes Kath and Lhuna look innocent. However, the EW might have thought of this and turned at least one of them the following NIGHTs.

[Lhunardawen]

The above post is Nilp's.

Toinx.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nilp as Lhunardawen

She quoted from post 590 , where I repeated what I said yesterDAY: Agan might have voted for Nerwen, giving the Healer a two-vote lead, cos she feared that some of those who haven't voted yet (myself, Lhuna, and Kath) might show up and vote for her. Which, in light of my belief in communicating Wolves, makes Kath and Lhuna look innocent. However, the EW might have thought of this and turned at least one of them the following NIGHTs.

But she didn't. He is a big lunkhead, and didn't think of doing that. *kicks the EW*

Still, Kath and Lhuna are both excellent choices for wolves. The EW may just want to go and change one of them toNight as a fourth wolf. I would very highly recommend it. Well, maybe not Lhuna, as she dislikes being a wolf, and so it's kind of mean to make her one - oh, yeah, though, this is the evil wizard we're talking about. So that kind of just sails right past "mean".

[Rikae]

Wow, as if the game weren't complicated enough, we've got two people posting under the names of others. Good thing I'm not still using Mac's computer (amusing as that might be).
I'll go back to my previous post and change the quote attribution accordingly (before Cailin threatens to vote for me).

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Out-of-body experiences are plain weird.

Enedwaith, Rikae is just acting so differently from before. Reminds me of a certain Valier in another Wizard-infested village . . .

[Lhunardawen]

Eek, sorry for the confusion Rikae. Shtoopid Nilp forgot I was still logged on.

I haven't done more than a cursory read-through of toDay and yesterDay. But I see some people have also considered the possibility of Lommy being the EW and going after Agan. I don't know exactly how, but as I re-read their posts yesterDay (especially the ones with all caps and exclamation points - those were hilarious) the idea seemed to be likelier to me. Agan's last words certainly fit the notion, at least as I understand it.

The confusing thing for me is, I'm also getting the stronger feeling that the phantom might be the EW. Don't know how I got there. There's something fishy about him telling me that if he was the EW he would kill me if I kept on insisting that he was. I don't get it.

Anyway, Leggie is still suspicious. I can vaguely remember that he made some inconsistencies yesterDay. I'll try to dig them up.

[the phantom]

Eomer's been posting, eh? No wonder I picked up on WW vibes. He's EVIL!!

Green's still looking innocent to me. You're wrong about me though.

Originally Posted by Cai/Eomer

Well, that was pretty easy. I know you'll be offended by this, phantom, but I can just dismiss your post. By your standards it's pretty lame.

I'm not offended. I know it's lame. But I just can't shake this feeling, like it or not.

And I see I even forgot another one of my Cai=guilty reasons....

I would've scried her as the EW! Totally, without a doubt. She would've been on my list Night 1 and had I not gotten her I would've been anxious to add her to my den.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Gwath and phantom - very interesting. Now I have to go back and read Cailin's posts again. I think you guys have something there.

Ah, excellent. Hey Gwath- we have a member recruited for our Lynch Cailin Club!

Legate, my good friend and business partner, what do you think? Interested in joining?

Originally Posted by LomLom

STOP TRUSTING MY JUDGEMENT ON AGANZIR!!!!!!!!!!

See, I can kind of understand this coming from an Ordo. I've felt like that before, where I suspect someone and then people depend on me to be right and I begin to doubt myself and get to feeling really guilty about what if the person is actually innocent and I'm getting them lynched etc.

I trust Lommy.

And I'm liking Rikae more than ever. Calling the EW names. That's gutsy.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

But she also casts the vote that gets Aganzir killed, which means that either she is a wolf who decided to risk sacrificing her fellow in order to build her own reputation, an innocent who made some mistakes early on, or a wolf who got scried over somewhere in between Nerwen's death and Aganzir's death.

The Problem with this is it has the unfounded assumption that the wolves know each other. Normal rules don't apply here and those assumptions cannot be made. I prefer to think of the wolves not knowing each other and that means that, if Cailin is a wolf, then that vote means nothing. Personally, if I were a wolf, I would be going after the most suspicious people, it makes you look more credible and I wouldn't worry too much about killing one or two others.

Well this is where I have read to...there have been a lot of, ummmm useful posts and I'm glad that there's not a lot of drivel to sift through.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by mormegil

The Problem with this is it has the unfounded assumption that the wolves know each other. Normal rules don't apply here and those assumptions cannot be made. I prefer to think of the wolves not knowing each other and that means that, if Cailin is a wolf, then that vote means nothing. Personally, if I were a wolf, I would be going after the most suspicious people, it makes you look more credible and I wouldn't worry too much about killing one or two others.

Umm...I hope you're not trying to mislead us here, morm? Of course it's a valid assumption. It's a risky thing to do for the Evil Team, yes, but it's too much to say that we can't make any such assumption.

[Lalaith]

I said before and I still think its true...a sensible EW would give her wolves a shortlist of lynchables. There's no danger in that, because even if a wolf were turned and spilt the beans to the village, well, the list might not still be valid as she might in that case scry a new wolf off the shortlist.

[Lalaith]

thought them potentially the GW. Which strikes me as a very limited avenue of recruiting wolves. I don't know if you actually believe that the EW would be doing such a thing, but weird nonetheless.

Because the only way the EW can find the identity of the GW is by scrying. The GW on the other hand has two alternatives: her scrying or her Seer.
Of course, it could be that the EW just wants to sit back and wait to let the GW find her, but I don't think so - I think she would try to combine the two activities.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Izzy

Cailin, I wouldn't mind voting for her based on some actions yesterday of shopping her vote around. Though it does bring a new light that Eomer is there in - well haunting spirit sometimes.

Come on Izzy. Vote Cailin please. *gives puppy dog eyes*

The fact that Eomer is already involved only makes her more dangerous. We must oust her while we can, for soon between the two of them they will dominate the village!