Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

• La Lhunatique - suspected Mac 320, 329, 347. Mac answered 346, 349.
  
• La Khat - had the following conversation with Mac:
  

  Kath, no offense intended, but are you sure your posts today are very helpful? It's a lot to read, but there's actually rather little new to learn from them... (Mac)

  Now who said I was trying to be helpful to others? These are mostly for my benefit, if anyone else gets something from them then good but it's not necessary. Also, maybe there's not a lot new to be learned, indeed there won't be much as it is often a summary with me commenting where I find something to comment on, but then I suppose it's giving you some information about me. I am sorry that it's a lot to read, I find that myself. (Kath)

  Voted for him 465. Mac found:

  [ . . . ]Kath creepy, but she can wait another day, too.

• La Diamante - thank Eru my daughter read my mind. I went insane sifting through her posts. You crazy, crazy woman. (Di, that is.) Read Sally's post 615.
  
• La Ka - is innocent. And dead.
  
• La Loupe - is a villain. And dead.

So, of the three remaining persons who voted for Mac, only Lhuna had some sort of evidence to show. Kath didn't vote the DAY before, and Di voted for Nerwen for personal reasons. Hmmm . . . were they Wolves ordered to lie low on DAY 1, and then ordered to get Mac lynched on DAY 2? Agan, a known Wolf, did vote for Mac, too (although we could argue that she's just trying to save her pelt.)

More later, must eat lunch. (Perfectly ordinary meat sandwich.)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

CRAZINESS!!! Spare me thy madness!!!!!

Must have blood blood blood blood blood . . .

Lynch me! LYNCH MEEEEE!!!!!!

÷÷Nilpau . . .

As you've noticed, I used the 'division' sign, not the 'plus' sign.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

CRAZINESS!!! Spare me thy madness!!!!!

Must have blood blood blood blood blood . . .

Lynch me! LYNCH MEEEEE!!!!!!

÷÷Nilpau . . .

As you've noticed, I used the 'division' sign, not the 'plus' sign.

So.... we should divide by you twice?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

This is Lhuna.

Apparently, Nilp wants us to divide him. That is actually worse than simply wanting to be lynched.

I wonder why we never thought that the division sign is more appropriate for making lynch votes.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

You chaps should be asking whether I want to be divided along Adam's line, or Alice's.

Of course, I can be divided by seven.. </shameless self-promotion>

Okay, let me eat, before I really vote for myself.

P.S. <3 Dury and her shamelessly letting others promote her. Will you be my mistress?

[Lhunardawen]

A few thoughts:

~ Legate is the most likely recipient of my vote toDay. Been reading on some of yesterDay's posts (thanks to Nilp's handy-dandy chart! who knew he could actually be reliable?), but I'll come up with my reasons. Later.

~ sally, McCaber, Cailin, and Rikae are now in my suspicion list. Will also elaborate later. But for now:

sally because she's distracting.
McCaber for being a submarine
Cailin feels slippery. Mummy, this isn't the you I'm used to seeing.
Rikae...this is tough. I don't like to think that she's taking advantage of her marital connexion to the late Mac to parade the fact that she thought he was innocent and berating those who found him otherwise (which includes me, unfortunately), but that's the feeling I get. Maybe this is a widow's distress, but isn't it too much?

~ I'm currently entertaining the idea that Agan's lynching might be premeditated. I'm trying to work out how that might fit with Mac revealing his gift.

Anyway, I still think the phantom might be a wizard. There might be more to his 'threat' towards me yesterDay than meets the eye.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I suggest we DON'T focus on Roa or tp. No wizard in her right mind would scry either of them, anyway.

I wouldn't count on that. A wizard may anticipate that others may ignore them thinking those two would draw too much attention to be scried...and scry them. And of course there's the possibility that one could be the actual EW. We shouldn't solely focus our attention on tp and Roa, but it's be a horrible horrible idea to disregard them.

Originally Posted by Sally

Could Ka have been unscried and then killed for knowing her fellows? Maybe the EW cut communication and Ka....well, why would she tell Agan she'd been unscried?

An interesting idea, but I don't think that's possible. While it's a good idea to keep unscrying in mind...I don't think it could've happened in the last two Nights. Why? Because I think if someone was unscryed we'd only have three wolves...and you need four for two kills. If there were only three wolves...then the second death would have to be from double scrying. But I doubt that's happened as the narrations hints that all kills were done by WWs...and I'm thinking there would be some kind of indication if someone was double scryed. (What does someone look like when they've died by too much magic?)

Originally Posted by Diamond

But then, I STILL suspect Lommy of Wizardry. She could have sacrificed Agan, and Agan could be none the wiser about her actual role, thus rendering Agan's comment moot. Despite what TP says about the folly of the EW sacrificing wolves, we've seen it done successfully in the past and I wouldn't put it past Lommy to be going by that model.

I've been thinking about this possibility too. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see an EW Lommy sacrifice Aganzir by forcefully attacking her herself. At first appearance, it does make her look more innocent. And if it were so, I'm sure Agan-wolf wouldn't even know the main advocate of her lynching was the EW. Or maybe she did....and used her attacks against Lommy to make it look less likely the two were working together. I don't know...it's just a theory. But I'm starting to think that behind that sweet surface of Lommy, there might be something more sinister brewing. I need to have a better look at her posts before I dwell anymore on this, though.

Originally Posted by phantom

But there is someone that, in my multiple rereadings yesterday, I started to really not like very much. I'm sort of excited because it's my first halfway strong guilty feeling that I've gotten. Oh, sure, I have been uneasy about some, like Shasta, who I have actually reversed my opinion about, but this time I actually feel good about it.

Nope. Not telling who yet.

You know, that reminds someone else said something very similar to this yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Cailin

I have one more, possibly crackpot, theory at the moment, but it's one of those that requires the day to play out; so I won't reveal it yet. Let's just say someone else is looking mighty suspicious to me today.

Did she actually reveal her theory? I'm not sure...

Originally Posted by Durelin

Legate has seemed to be jumpy, defensive, and frustrated quite a bit these 3 Days. As a Wolf, though, I seemed to recall him as slipping by unnoticed, playing things smoothly, avoiding arguments and playing nice. But my long-term memory is...very selective. And that was a good while ago, so many things could have changed.

Yes, that's what I remember too. Last time Legate acted this way, he turned out innocent.

Originally Posted by Durelin

I also definitely want to see some more action between him and Rikae. Who I agree is a bit different toDay. Something happen during the Night?

Something did happen...her husband was killed. Well, now we know what it takes to make Rikae aggressive. But was she in fact partially responsible for her loved one's death...that is something I do wonder...

Originally Posted by Izzy

Four Wolves (Aganzir died, and one was scried - I believe the plot mentions Mac dying at the hand of four wolves.)

Yes it does:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The shapes of the four werewolves emerged from the darkness coming slowly towards him.

Anyways, four wolves are necessary for two kills.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

I wonder why we never thought that the division sign is more appropriate for making lynch votes.

Because none of us Americans (or at least me) have that symbol on our keyboard and we'd never vote on time. Just like we don't have any other fancy symbols which is why I type Eonwe not Eönwë, which originally caused all this confusion on whether he played WW before or not... *whines about American keyboards*

Originally Posted by Diamond

By the by, a look at the posting counts surprised me. Shasta has the second most number of posts (behind, well do I even have to say?) yet I don't think he's garnered near the attention.

Hmmmm. I may have to break down and review his posts. Cheerful killer that he is.

Hey Di, how did you do that...check how much each member has posted in a thread? Six years on the Downs, and I've never known of that feature before...

Originally Posted by Diamond

One thing I wonder -- has Eomer been doing any posting for her? I know there was some kind of mention of him stepping to help in if she got too busy (or something) but I don't recall if he was going to announce this substitution or just post seamlessly. Just bringing it up because if it were so it might explain some inconsistencies or seeming differences in manner.

I believe so. See here:

Originally Posted by Cailin

I wish to point out that I've been misquoted twice now (due to a nameless possession this was not noted before).

And that nameless possession is what I'd guess to be the ghost of Eomer.

Call me crazy, but I really think we should not come around suspicions only on the assumption that two wolves may know each other. They could...but we can't know that for sure, so I just see it as faulty reasoning to say someone looks furry they look like they might be a wolf with someone else. Get what I'm saying?

I only skimmed through tp's analysis of Cailin, but I do want a better look later...

[Diamond18]

Hey Di, how did you do that...check how much each member has posted in a thread? Six years on the Downs, and I've never known of that feature before...

Brinn, you go outside the thread, to Middle Earth Mirth, and click on the total number of posts for the thread (on the right).

This brings up that screenshot.

And if you want a list of a certain person's posts (all of 'em) you click on the number of posts they've made.

Makes reviewing a single person's posts, like, way easier, man.

Also, regarding nameless possession. I thought she meant that the quote in question did not have a name attached to it. Like the one I just did for you.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Diamond

Brinn, you go outside the thread, to Middle Earth Mirth, and click on the total number of posts for the thread (on the right).

Okay, got that...thanks.

And I did at least know of the 'see all posts by that person' feature, thankfully.

Originally Posted by Diamond

Also, regarding nameless possession. I thought she meant that the quote in question did not have a name attached to it. Like the one I just did for you.

Ah yeah, that could be so. I was probably just reading too much into that...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

(What does someone look like when they've died by too much magic?)

I'm of the firm view that they explode.

I'm in agreement that Cailin, in light of Gwath's analysis (thanks by the way, Gwath), looks pretty bad. As does Legate still. Celuien and Lommy, I can't get a read on. I'll try them later, but.... it's late and I'm tired. I may lurk for a while, but I'm going to bed soon. Good night.

[Diamond18]

I love Nilp's formatting. It's a thing of beauty. I'll fight against anyone who tries to lynch him, for just this reason.

[Diamond18]

By the by, a look at the posting counts surprised me. Shasta has the second most number of posts (behind, well do I even have to say?) yet I don't think he's garnered near the attention.

Hmmmm. I may have to break down and review his posts. Cheerful killer that he is.

[the phantom]

I just walked in the door. First, I shall post my case.

Then, I will catch up on what everyone's said today.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

By the by, a look at the posting counts surprised me. Shasta has the second most number of posts (behind, well do I even have to say?) yet I don't think he's garnered near the attention.

Hmmmm. I may have to break down and review his posts. Cheerful killer that he is.

That surprises me, too.

[Gwathagor]

This may or may not be helpful to anyone else besides myself. That's OK.


CAILIN
Post #51
Recommends we try to catch both WWs and EW. Suggests that the EW will try to scry those who the GW would not and those who are less “illustrious”, but then disregards this and all such theories as useless speculation. I believe her position on speculation does an about-face later on.

Post #58
States again that she imagines the EW would select wolves from those the GW would be unlikely to scry. Posts list of Likely Wolves. This is composed of Lalaith, Izzy, Aganzir (good call), Herself, Kitanna, Kath, Legate, Eonwe, Volo, Mormegil, and Lhuna. Her list of Likely Innocents: Lommy, TP, Diamond18, Macalaure, Rikae, Roa, Nilp, Brinn, Durelin.

Post #63
Says that Volo’s “we wolves” was probably a mistake and not a wolf slip. Fair enough.

Post #78
Now says it’s worthwhile to speculate regarding who would apply for Wizard positions, and who would be chosen as a wolf. Is this not a contradiction of what she said earlier in #51?

Post #96
Responds to Aganzir’s suspicion. Defends speculation again.

Post #101
THE Ka is at the top of Cailin’s suspect list, based on an unfortunate misquoting by Roa which Ka perpetuated. Cailin’s suspicion is understandable at this point, I suppose, as there is little else to go on in Day 1.

Post #105
This is the first post where anyone really goes after Nerwen. Cailin takes on Nerwen’s first post: “This is a very suspicious first post. Nerwen takes a long time to do nothing but criticise other people's ideas and post signs indicating potential wolvish behaviour. She's also giving wolves a nice guide on how not to act. I can't see what she hopes to achieve with this, other than to look helpful and serious in the eyes of the casual reader.” It seems a stretch to get all this out of Nerwen’s post.

Nerwen’s criticisms regarding methods of finding an EW or WW seemed legitimate to me, and not particularly long. Also, it seems like a gross misrepresentation on Cailin’s part to say that Nerwen’s guide to the behavior of werewolves is more helpful to the wolves than it is to the innocents.

Post #108
In response to Nerwen, states again that it’s unnecessary to state common wolf tactics, because we know them already.

Post #123
Dislikes Nerwen even more for voting her following their disagreement, but say that she’s still thinking about voting Ka for “carelessly copying Roa’s misquote” about her (Cailin). It seems to me that she’s fishing for a bandwagon, either Nerwen or Ka, but could care less which one goes down.

Post #127
Points out that TP seems to be playing the role of villager as a neutral one. Also suggests that TP might be a bluffing wizard, but doubts he is a wolf.

Post #165
Votes Nerwen here (beginning of Nerwen bandwagon), because she doesn’t have any other substantial suspicions. Restates her accusations from #105: Nerwen merely spends a long time criticizing others in order to gain a position on “the pedestal of sense.” THE Ka seems to have disappeared inexplicably from the suspicion-radar by this point…

Post #315
Analyzes Volo. No, that’s inaccurate. Really, she just sums up all his posts without actually interpreting them. A lot of work, but not much help. Trying to achieve a spot on the good old pedestal of sense? Also sums up Kitanna’s posts.

Apologizes to Nerwen, because she didn’t think everyone would follow her vote the way they did. She was flabbergasted, in fact. Oops.

Claims to have a “crackpot theory” regarding someone else who looks “mighty suspicious”, but won’t reveal it yet. Let’s see if she does!

Post #337
Acknowledges that there’s not much to gain from looking at Volo and Kitanna. Recommends that we ignore the Roa/TP fight, as they’re likely “two proud ordos going at it.”

Post #359
Suggests that sally is way to appease and make friends. Finds her suspicious for this, and, I think, legitimately points out that sally voted for TP the Day before, but is now joking about with him, which seems a curious switching of attitudes.

Post #371
Jumps on my statement that I think either Roa or TP is bad, and finds my reasoning odd. I didn’t actually give any reasoning, but she suggests possible reasons I might have, and which she finds unpersuasive. She makes me sound pretty bad, though. Maybe she really doesn’t want us inspecting Roa vs. TP. If the case, I doubt her motivation is good.

Post #412
Announces that Diamond seems less than innocent, and runs off to take a closer look.

Post #416
Can’t find a single interesting point that Diamond has made. I agree, actually. By this point, Diamond has been entertaining (keep it up!), but not especially helpful. Cailin thinks Diamond may be a baddie hiding in the open. I think this is legitimate.

Post #434
Not sure who to vote for, but is suspicious of Sally, Brinniel, Diamond, and me.

Post #466
Concedes that Ka’s accidental misquote may have been an honest mistake, but maintains that it’s not a bad cause for suspicion. I think she’s wrong about this; an accidental copying of a misquote is an awfully flimsy basis for a vote. Denies jumping on Nerwen, but I really don’t think you can describe the situation any other way. They definitely jumped on each other, though Nerwen’s post addressed multiple people, and only mentioned Cailin briefly.

Post #480
In response to Brinniel: says it would be as correct to say that she jumped on Nerwen as to say that Nerwen jumped on her. She’s right about this. Also, Cailin doesn’t like what she calls Brinniel’s single-mindedness regarding the who-jumped-on-whom issue.

Post #498
Creeped out by McCaber. Wants to keep Lalaith alive. Uneasy about TP. Curious about but hesitant to vote for Brinniel. Asks if anyone wants to vote for sally or me. Looks to me like she’s fishing for a bandwagon again. TP offers to take her up on the offer and vote for me (in post #504), but seems to think it’s not logistically feasible. McCaber suggests that it could be done.

Post #514
Wants to vote for me, because I’m creepier than the other candidates. I thought McCaber was the creepy one. Not anymore, I suppose, since he’s willing to support her anti-Gwath campaign.

Post #526
Cailin says: “Nay, I know people are watching. I'm testing to see if there is support. I don't want to throw away my vote.” I’m not sure who she means this is reference to.

Post #532
Disappointed that no one (i.e. not enough people to get one of us killed) wanted to vote against sally or gwath.

Post #537
Votes Aganzir. This is the final and deciding vote for Aganzir. If Cailin is a wolf, then she's likely voting off the Safe Votes For Wolves list (if it exists).







So, Cailin does some really bad stuff. She start the Nerwen bandwagon, bases her suspicion of Ka on a copying of an accidental misquote, makes weird apparent contradictions, seems to fish around for public support before voting, misrepresents aspects of Nerwen's posts, and vehemently wants us to not inspect the Roa/TP debate.



But she also casts the vote that gets Aganzir killed, which means that either she is a wolf who decided to risk sacrificing her fellow in order to build her own reputation, an innocent who made some mistakes early on, or a wolf who got scried over somewhere in between Nerwen's death and Aganzir's death.



I have to say that based on the frequently weak, exaggerated, or non-existent reasoning of her posts, coupled with her tendency to drop suspects once it's clear they won't be lynched, I really don't like the way Cailin looks right now. However, whether I vote her or not will depend largely on what happens toDay. I mean to take closer looks at legate and tp as well.

EDIT: Crossed with just about everyone. This beast of a post took me several hours, and I feel rather bad putting you all through it.

[Diamond18]

That's a pretty damning analysis of Caillie, Gwath. I'm not sure what I'd think of it if I didn't already suspect Cailin (hey, I may use a joking tone, but milk curdling evil was not an understatement) but it is all very... confirmatory.

Kinda wish she's show her bones today and refute (not the least because I love a good refutation of a damning analysis) but even if she never does, I'm not adverse to the notion of lynching her.

One thing I wonder -- has Eomer been doing any posting for her? I know there was some kind of mention of him stepping to help in if she got too busy (or something) but I don't recall if he was going to announce this substitution or just post seamlessly. Just bringing it up because if it were so it might explain some inconsistencies or seeming differences in manner.

Ah, this brings back fond memories of Not-Cailin.

[Cailín]

From Eomer.

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

So, Cailin does some really bad stuff. She start the Nerwen bandwagon, bases her suspicion of Ka on a copying of an accidental misquote, makes weird apparent contradictions, seems to fish around for public support before voting, misrepresents aspects of Nerwen's posts, and vehemently wants us to not inspect the Roa/TP debate.



But she also casts the vote that gets Aganzir killed, which means that either she is a wolf who decided to risk sacrificing her fellow in order to build her own reputation, an innocent who made some mistakes early on, or a wolf who got scried over somewhere in between Nerwen's death and Aganzir's death.



I have to say that based on the frequently weak, exaggerated, or non-existent reasoning of her posts, coupled with her tendency to drop suspects once it's clear they won't be lynched, I really don't like the way Cailin looks right now. However, whether I vote her or not will depend largely on what happens toDay. I mean to take closer looks at legate and tp as well.

Ok.

I won't do a post-by-post riposte because it would be too long and no-one would read it. But I noticed a couple of little things you mention that seem pretty unfair to me (something about a contradiction in my first 4 posts? ) If I don't address something specific that you want, please remind me.

I think it was Lhuna who argued in my favour about your Nerwen ''bandwagon''. What I did had nothing to do with a bandwagon: I voted for someone with no votes who I found suspicious.

I really don't see what's hard to understand about that thing with The Ka. It's happened in games before: a lazy wolf, looking for a case to build, gathers together someone else's work and re-jigs it a bit. That's what I suspected. Roa mistakenly put my name atop a Celuien post, and The Ka copied Roa's post in talking about me, not the original. This looked like a lazy attempt to keep my name in the suspicion realm. I changed my mind after seeing Ka's response, which felt sincere to me.

I seem to fish around for public support? Yes, of course. I don't want to throw away my vote. Had I not done so yesterday Mac might have tied with Aganzir. It doesn't mean I drop my suspicions; it means that I must wait for another day. Gwath, the spin you put on what is basic voting tactics is remarkable.

As for misrepresenting Nerwen's post, I'm not sure I agree with that. What I will agree with is that I got it totally wrong. You say I managed to squeeze a lot from Nerwen's first post, but really I was looking for an archetypal first Wolf post. Nerwen's looked a likely one to me.

Vehemently want you to stop looking at Roa and the phantom? I simply said, in one line, not to focus on them. Your suggestion, Gwath, now that's misrepresentation!


Well, that's that. I'll look back to see if the phantom offered more.

[Lhunardawen]

I don't quite get this, dear son-in-law. Why say that? (Greenie)

She quoted from post 590, where I repeated what I said yesterDAY: Agan might have voted for Nerwen, giving the Healer a two-vote lead, cos she feared that some of those who haven't voted yet (myself, Lhuna, and Kath) might show up and vote for her. Which, in light of my belief in communicating Wolves, makes Kath and Lhuna look innocent. However, the EW might have thought of this and turned at least one of them the following NIGHTs.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

But she also casts the vote that gets Aganzir killed, which means that either she is a wolf who decided to risk sacrificing her fellow in order to build her own reputation, an innocent who made some mistakes early on, or a wolf who got scried over somewhere in between Nerwen's death and Aganzir's death.

The Problem with this is it has the unfounded assumption that the wolves know each other. Normal rules don't apply here and those assumptions cannot be made. I prefer to think of the wolves not knowing each other and that means that, if Cailin is a wolf, then that vote means nothing. Personally, if I were a wolf, I would be going after the most suspicious people, it makes you look more credible and I wouldn't worry too much about killing one or two others.

Well this is where I have read to...there have been a lot of, ummmm useful posts and I'm glad that there's not a lot of drivel to sift through.

[the phantom]

*sigh*

The case that I wrote up earlier... it's not here. I can't find it. My computer ate it!

But then I just refreshed my window, and I see that Gwath has made some of the very same points that I was wanting to! So that kind of saves me. (Gwath's post)

Real quick I'll add a couple things. I'm not quite sure how to say this, but....

Cailin acts in a way that reminds me of the way I'd act were I a WW a couple times, and she comes to judgements that I don't think she'd make as an innocent. It's hard to explain. It's just like everything she says just rings WW alarms for me.

Lommy, remember that WerePenguin game? Remember the way Boro and Ang set off my alarms from the get-go. That's how I'm feeling with Cailin.

Yes, yes, I know it's just "feelings" rather than hard evidence, but the fact is we are a bit short on hard evidence considering we don't know who the EW is and it is doubtful the WWs know the EW or even each other. Feelings are the best thing I have.

All right, anyway....

On Day 1, when discussing possible WW choices for the EW, she said this-

Cailín: Beloved by all, unlikely to get lynched. Yea, I’d choose me.

Wow, did that ring alarms during my re-read! I think the EW did choose her. And this is one of those times where Cai does something exactly the way I would, as far as what I would say if I were her and was a WW.

And then yesterday- I know this is kind of lame, but...

Originally Posted by Cai

The phantom I am sort of uneasy with.

I just sort of have this feeling that if Cailin were truly innocent, she would be fine with me.

She's seen me operate plenty. And Eomer is right there with her, and he's seen me quite a bit as well. If she isn't sure of me I'd bet that he's busy whispering "tp's innocent" into her ear. I know that seems dumb, but that's just what I'm thinking.

And then she holds her vote later on Day 2 and starts shopping around to lynch someone else. Did she know that Agan was a WW? It's possible. But either way, it just doesn't seem like a Cailin move. I'd come out and ask "Hey, you guys wanna lynch so-and-so instead?" but it didn't feel right coming from Cailin.

And then Mac reveals, and she says "I suppose I should trust Mac", but then waits till 6:00 to vote. What was she waiting on? It takes less than 10 seconds to post "+ + Aganzir". You'd think she would've been in an outright panic if she was truly innocent! "Oh great! Mac's the Ranger! It's up to me! The deadline is almost here!"

Anyway, I'd really like to lynch her. This is the first time I've done multiple read-throughs on someone and gotten a consistent Wolfish feeling for them.

And to top it off, Cel had a "gut feeling" about Cailin yesterday. And you know- I think Cel has good instincts, and I think she is innocent in this game.

And then there's Brin, who I've been feeling as innocent for quite a while. She listed her prime suspects yesterday as Agan and Cailin. She was right once. I think she might be right again.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by the phantom

*sigh*

The case that I wrote up earlier... it's not here. I can't find it. My computer ate it!

But then I just refreshed my window, and I see that Gwath has made some of the very same points that I was wanting to! So that kind of saves me. (Gwath's post)

Real quick I'll add a couple things. I'm not quite sure how to say this, but....

Cailin acts in a way that reminds me of the way I'd act were I a WW a couple times, and she comes to judgements that I don't think she'd make as an innocent. It's hard to explain. It's just like everything she says just rings WW alarms for me.

Lommy, remember that WerePenguin game? Remember the way Boro and Ang set off my alarms from the get-go. That's how I'm feeling with Cailin.

Yes, yes, I know it's just "feelings" rather than hard evidence, but the fact is we are a bit short on hard evidence considering we don't know who the EW is and it is doubtful the WWs know the EW or even each other. Feelings are the best thing I have.

All right, anyway....

On Day 1, when discussing possible WW choices for the EW, she said this-

Wow, did that ring alarms during my re-read! I think the EW did choose her. And this is one of those times where Cai does something exactly the way I would, as far as what I would say if I were her and was a WW.

And then yesterday- I know this is kind of lame, but...

I just sort of have this feeling that if Cailin were truly innocent, she would be fine with me.

She's seen me operate plenty. And Eomer is right there with her, and he's seen me quite a bit as well. If she isn't sure of me I'd bet that he's busy whispering "tp's innocent" into her ear. I know that seems dumb, but that's just what I'm thinking.

And then she holds her vote later on Day 2 and starts shopping around to lynch someone else. Did she know that Agan was a WW? It's possible. But either way, it just doesn't seem like a Cailin move. I'd come out and ask "Hey, you guys wanna lynch so-and-so instead?" but it didn't feel right coming from Cailin.

And then Mac reveals, and she says "I suppose I should trust Mac", but then waits till 6:00 to vote. What was she waiting on? It takes less than 10 seconds to post "+ + Aganzir". You'd think she would've been in an outright panic if she was truly innocent! "Oh great! Mac's the Ranger! It's up to me! The deadline is almost here!"

Anyway, I'd really like to lynch her. This is the first time I've done multiple read-throughs on someone and gotten a consistent Wolfish feeling for them.

And to top it off, Cel had a "gut feeling" about Cailin yesterday. And you know- I think Cel has good instincts, and I think she is innocent in this game.

And then there's Brin, who I've been feeling as innocent for quite a while. She listed her prime suspects yesterday as Agan and Cailin. She was right once. I think she might be right again.

Something strikes me as odd here. I think it's Phantoms saying that "Hey, since I'm doing these things, I'm innocent, but since Cailin's doing these things, she's evil!" Kind of a double standard, if you ask me.