Werewolf XLVI: Getting Back to Basics

[Nogrod]

First of all it looks like Agan got killed because she was generally thought of as an innocent.

Another interpretation is that she was getting something right with Gwath, Legate and / or Lommy and the wolf / wolves decided to take a dangerous adversary out of the way.

Third interpretation is that it's all a set up and people like Kath, Nerwen and Volo are just grinning in the shadows.

Combinations of these reasons are possible.


Legate's point on Oddwen and Lommy's on Aganzir are plausible (well, I wouldn't have included implausible cases in my list - like myself, Legate or Volo as the ones she would have dreamt) even if I tend to believe it was Mith she had her dream of. I wasn't going to take anything for granted from there but surely these interpretations direct each of us to look at some places rather than not. And these facts need to be brought forwards even if they can't prove anything. You very seldom prove anything in WW but you can build up cases for a pile of indirect evidence.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I don't have anything against you suspecting me. I don't even have anything against you doing it rather forcefully or even on weak grounds.

You don't? Just look again your second post of toDay! To me your reaction looks just like "Oh my god he's saying something that doesn't rub me right! Attaaack!" And it doesn't help you that you try to downplay my thoughts on you as "preaching". That's cheap rhetorics and more a wolfy reaction than an innocent one.

I still haven't heard your answer to the initial suspicion that your first post looks wolvish. In it you manage to say how sad (wolf-apology) and surprised (wolf-cover) you're that Agan is gone. Also you try to make a case of the Lhuna-"bandwagon" and how people fell on that feeble grounds (even the known innocent Agan "fell" for that having her as her second suspicion!) while it is also clear that there were only three votes for Lhuna and thence no mentionable bandwagon (wolvish way of pointing the attention away from you). And then you go on thinking whether the wolves were surprised Lhuna was a seer or just got lucky - which should be a thing the wolves would have thought (wolf-thinking).

I do see your point on feeling bad when someone is suspecting you when you're innocent. But you should know better than that. Putting somene under scrutiny and getting reactions may also make someone look better as you know. We need to get the wolves but we also need to find the ones we can trust - at least a bit.


There is still something I'm not quite easy with Gwath. It's too late now but I hope I can put my finger on it toMorrow.

He and Legate seem just too happy to follow the trends and back up any suspicions raised against vocal players - which would be just what a wolf would like to do.

And just to finish this all. Let's not forget that quieter part of the village. It maybe that we speakers are tearing each other apart once again while the real culprits laugh in the shadows.


*Congrats for your 4000th post Lommy!*

[Kath]

I can't believe we lynched the Seer, and it was Lhuna of all people. The first time we're both free to play a game and we get a grand total of a Day.

Anyway, you have my apologies but I'm going to have to vote within the next hour or so which I know is insanely early but I've got a family outing planned for tomorrow and have absolutely no idea what time we're going to be back.

So, I'm going to do a few things now. I want to see who voted for Lhuna yesterDay and why. Aside from that pine cones thing picked up by someone earlier I saw little in her posts that would indicate Seerdom. Also I will have a look at her posts though I doubt I will get much out of them because on Day 1 no Seer is going to reveal, and generally tries to barely hint. Finally I will look at the few posts we've had so far toDay and try and make up my mind on a vote. The vote will only be based on those who have spoken so far toDay because I think that's only fair.

Lhuna voters:
Nerwen ~ no real reasoning. Says she suspects Lhuna 'ish'. This is such a strangely supported vote that I actually feel it speaks to her innocence.
Gwath ~ votes Lhuna, no reasoning in the post and it's only because he decided not to vote Volo. The original vote is odd, voting for someone who outright said they weren't able to be there. The Lhuna vote seems revenge more than anything for her 'flippant' vote for him.
Nogrod ~ no reasoning in the post, hmm, apparently the vote was to work out Volo's role. Intriguing idea given the little we'd had from either of them and the perfectly sound argument Lhuna had of ignoring Volo til he had time to return and explain. Given her history with Nilp and self-votes I'd have said that made perfect sense.

Lhuna posts:
Hmm, mentions a twist of some kind, as though she has something to say. A role hint maybe or something more.
Has Mith innocent, unsure on Nog, no conclusion on Lommy, unsure on Legate, has Oddwen as innocent. From this I would say she'd dreamt of Mith or Oddwen as they're the only ones she's fully cleared. I'm more inclined to say Mith because she put reasoning behind that one.
Reiterates that Mith and Oddwen are innocent, not helping that debate. Argues with Gwath and thinks he may be a wolf along with Nerwen. Also has Nog high on her suspicion list.
Votes Gwath mostly by a process of elimination. Is it possible that she dreamt of him? She has little forthright reasoning for her vote, yet has gone after him relatively strongly for Day 1.

ToDay:
Nog jumps on Lommy pretty fast. He seems determined to find fault at the moment. I don't like his statement that Lhuna would have made more explicit hints. On Day 1 only a Seer with one wolf in the bag would dare make their role clear, and even then rarely. He's pretty much defending Gwath, though subtly, saying Gwath wouldn't have picked up the cues and suggesting Lhuna didn't dream of him. The fact that my suspicion of Nog is growing makes me wonder about this, but then I'm not sure a Nog-wolf would be so obvious.
Gwath suspects Nog and Volo. He's very against both of them, and to me seems to be doing some of what he accuses Nog.

I haven't looked at Agan because I think she was killed because there seemed a general consensus that she was innocent.

++NOGROD

The more I've read the more I've been leaning that way. There is still doubt in me whether a Nog-wolf would behave quite as jumpily as Nog is, but then maybe he has comrades he doesn't quite know or it's a role he wasn't keen to have. I don't know, but whatever the case he is acting suspiciously.

I think I've cross-posted with some people. Haven't seen anything since Lommy's last post about downplaying.

[Nerwen]

Okay, well that was a lousy start. I suppose I'm partly responsible, but the fact is that I had to vote early– and will probably have to do so again, just so you know.

I was, of course, afraid of wolves jumping on my vote: from my point of view Gwath and Nogrod are looking furrier than they did yesterday just for that reason.

Now, was Lhuna killed for giving Seer hints? We can't assume this, but if she was it's more likely it was for picking a wolf than for babbling about pine cones. (I'd guess Gwathagor, in that case.)

However– why wasn't she killed in the night instead? Remember, she suspected everyone who voted her, so if there are wolves among them (I'm not one, as it happens), then they risked incriminating themselves.

That's if she was killed for being a Seer and not just a nuisance.

Originally Posted by Kath

He's pretty much defending Gwath, though subtly, saying Gwath wouldn't have picked up the cues and suggesting Lhuna didn't dream of him. The fact that my suspicion of Nog is growing makes me wonder about this, but then I'm not sure a Nog-wolf would be so obvious.
Gwath suspects Nog and Volo. He's very against both of them, and to me seems to be doing some of what he accuses Nog.

It's just a little thing, but certain lycanthropic ancestors of myself and Nogrod have used an asymmetrical suspicion technique that looks just like that.

I need to read some more, though.

[Thinlómien]

[QUOTE=Nerwen]
However

[Thinlómien]

What?! I wrote a long post, then tried to edit it to correct a spelling mistake, but the computer refuses to post the original post (which I have copypasted) and only agrees to post that quote=nerwen -thing. I won't delete that post for the sake of following the rules but feel free to ignore it. I try to post my actual post soon but we'll see if this computer co-operates...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

However– why wasn't she killed in the night instead? Remember, she suspected everyone who voted her, so if there are wolves among them (I'm not one, as it happens), then they risked incriminating themselves.

Well, of course the wolves could gamble and thus have their next Night kill to other use but it seems quite stretched, especially as I don't think Lhuna was an obvious seer - quite on the contrary.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Another interpretation is that she was getting something right with Gwath, Legate and / or Lommy and the wolf / wolves decided to take a dangerous adversary out of the way.

I think this theory is worth consideration - for the wolves will surely feel more safe when the seer is dead and they might assume we don't assume they would kill people who suspect them.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You don't? Just look again your second post of toDay! To me your reaction looks just like "Oh my god he's saying something that doesn't rub me right! Attaaack!" And it doesn't help you that you try to downplay my thoughts on you as "preaching". That's cheap rhetorics and more a wolfy reaction than an innocent one.

Well if it looks like that to you, what can I do about it? I can't (thankfully) manipulate your impressions. Anyway, that was certainly what I thought and I guess I can't say more about it.

Also, I'm not downplaying your thoughts by labeling them as preaching. I think it's always worth it to hear what people have to say - even if it is nonsense. I was just expressing my annoyance at you obviously thinking me stupid and repeating your old speech about being nice. Everyone here has probably heard it dozens of times and I don't tend to be delighted by people thinking I'm an idiot. That is why what you said struck me as useless preaching - and now that I think of it, sort of trying to appear good. And my apologies if I'm offensive, I don't mean to be, but I think Nog won't think I hate him if I complain to him or be offended by my honest opinion (at least I hope so...) or do anything as silly, so I don't feel like hiding my message between nice "flowery" talk.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I still haven't heard your answer to the initial suspicion that your first post looks wolvish.

Well, l(like I just said a few paragraphs above), what on earth could I reply to that. I can't help it if you see my actions as suspicious.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

In it you manage to say how sad (wolf-apology) and surprised (wolf-cover) you're that Agan is gone.

If I'm surprised and sad by a kill, I tend to say it aloud. I might say things like that if I am a wolf, yes, but just look through a couple of late games and you see I do that as an innocent as well. Bad argument, Noggles.

Originally Posted by Noggie

Also you try to make a case of the Lhuna-"bandwagon" and how people fell on that feeble grounds (even the known innocent Agan "fell" for that having her as her second suspicion!) while it is also clear that there were only three votes for Lhuna and thence no mentionable bandwagon (wolvish way of pointing the attention away from you).

Attention away from me? When was it on me in the first place? Anyway, you can't claim the Lhuna-voting wasn't odd. Of course I want to have a look at it and of course it's important (regardless of Lhuna's role). I think three votes can be called a bandwagon. And lastly, I have no idea why are you using Aganzir's opinion as a point - the fact that Agan was innocent doesn't mean her opinions were necessarily well-reasoned. Besides, not everybody who voted Lhuna or considerec voting can be wolves (matemathically). And I have not even claimed that all wolves voted or considered voting Lhuna - I consider that really improbable. o what's the point?

And then you go on thinking whether the wolves were surprised Lhuna was a seer or just got lucky - which should be a thing the wolves would have thought (wolf-thinking).

What? I did not understand this pont. At all. Isn't them being surprised and getting lucky pretty much the same case? And how is that wolf-thinking? Really, I don't understand you.

Originally Posted by Kath

There is still doubt in me whether a Nog-wolf would behave quite as jumpily as Nog is, but then maybe he has comrades he doesn't quite know or it's a role he wasn't keen to have. I don't know, but whatever the case he is acting suspiciously.

I think he is not jumpy, but rather playing frustrated and offended to appear more innocent and exaggerating his initial reactions. That's what he did as a wolf in Agan's (?) game a while ago and he almost fooled me with it. I won't fall for it again. I think he also might be trying to provoke reactions with behaving sillyly, but who knows. Anyway, my suspicion of him has quite drastically increased toDay.

And a few words about Legate. In a way, I trust him more than many others in this village. He makes a lot of sense. But. There is something in his manner that doesn't sit quite right with me. I can't really pinpoint it, but it's disturbing. Maybe I should have a closer look at his posts, especially those of toDay, because they have been the ones to create this uncomfortable feeling.

Now, I'm finally going to see how Lhuna's lynch happened. Actually, rereading the whole thread wouldn't probably be bad.

[Thinlómien]

Yay, it worked. I wonder what was it...

Just a quick comment before rereading... I don't know what to make of Oddwen's appearance and what she's saying. Her rather bold claim that Lhuna dreamt of a wolf seems almost cobbleristic. Actually, her being a cobbler would explain more of her yesterDay's behaviour too, but I doubt we have a cobbler in this village. So what was my point? Umm... maybe that she's actintg a bit oddly.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, was Lhuna killed for giving Seer hints? We can't assume this, but if she was it's more likely it was for picking a wolf than for babbling about pine cones. (I'd guess Gwathagor, in that case.)

However– why wasn't she killed in the night instead? Remember, she suspected everyone who voted her, so if there are wolves among them (I'm not one, as it happens), then they risked incriminating themselves.

That's if she was killed for being a Seer and not just a nuisance.

Now either I'm misunderstanding Nerwen, she's talking very odd stuff or she's making slips.

Legate already mentioned this post (and that is how I ended looking at it). Anyway, I find it odd for her to assume that Lhuna was especially killed (by Wolf/Wolves) and not just lynched (by the majority). And killed at the spot for being a Seer... How unprobable is that?


Ok, now I've been asked several times about my vote. I did already explain it however - or I think I did. A shot in the dark could have been more fatal, especially if I had hit a Gifted. Concerning the game, it was safest to vote for myself, since - yes - I didn't believe that I'd be lynched for just two in-character posts.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Volo

Ok, now I've been asked several times about my vote. I did already explain it however - or I think I did. A shot in the dark could have been more fatal, especially if I had hit a Gifted. Concerning the game, it was safest to vote for myself, since - yes - I didn't believe that I'd be lynched for just two in-character posts.

I could be persuaded to believe you with this - at least provisionally or at the moment and let the future show us more of you - even if I still think that a wolf-Volo would be very much able to pull the same thing. As you say yourself "I didn't believe that I'd be lynched for just two in-character posts"!!! So you say it was the "safest" thing to do. Yes it was - whether you're an innocent with no gift... or a wolf.

EDIT: X'd with Legate

[Nogrod]

Where are you people?

40 minutes left and only a few people have voiced their minds lately!

Legate I intended no special tone in my post asking you to decide. I just found it funny to be suspected for exactly opposing reasons within the same Day by the same person...

And about my style... if I have a lots of time in my hands I tend to read and analyse carefully which in turn results in more critical and careful posts. When I'm not having too much time I try to pick whatever comes my way or arouses attention and throw it forwards to see what happens. If everyone played like Sally or Elf Warrior we'd have nothing to discuss or no reactions to notice. The pot needs stirring.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

First of all there were already votes on Volo, Gwath and Legate at the point when Nerwen voted. Why was she afraid - already then as she claims - the wolves might jump particularly on her vote?

I was not afraid that the wolves might jump particularly on my vote. Where did you get that idea? I was speaking mostly on general principles: I don't like voting early. More specifically, though– other people, yourself included, had expressed suspicion of her, so I was of course concerned that if she was, in fact, innocent and you were wolves I was giving you an opening. (The same would have applied to anyone on my suspicion list.)

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Why did she vote for Lhuna if she wasn't actually the most suspicious one in her eyes?

Because there was no "most suspicious" person to vote for. I thought I made that quite clear at the time.

Why did you vote for her, Nogrod?

Originally Posted by Volo

Anyway, I find it odd for her to assume that Lhuna was especially killed (by Wolf/Wolves) and not just lynched (by the majority). And killed at the spot for being a Seer... How unprobable is that?

I do not like this, either, Volo. You have read my post, you say– therefore you know the context:

Now, was Lhuna killed for giving Seer hints? We can't assume this, but if she was it's more likely it was for picking a wolf than for babbling about pine cones. (I'd guess Gwathagor, in that case.)

However– why wasn't she killed in the night instead? Remember, she suspected everyone who voted her, so if there are wolves among them (I'm not one, as it happens), then they risked incriminating themselves.

That's if she was killed for being a Seer and not just a nuisance.

As you see, I was speculating on different possibilities– I assumed nothing.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

A simple list of my opinions on people:

ORANGE ZONE
Gwathagor - same as yesterday, plus I still have slightly uneasy feeling about him, and some things may be either way with him.

YELLOW ZONE
Oddwen - something more to follow today, doesn't look that bad.
Sally - her post today (was it only one? I think so. The first one in any case.) was a little unnerving and somewhat running around the same facts. She could be a wolf playing a cheery girl.

MORE LIKE INNOCENT
Kath - although I am inclined to think her maybe rather innocent, she is partially an enigma to me. But that's about her general behavior, when I don't know how she behaves if innocent and how if a Wolf.
Mithalwen - the only things I might have against her would be the same I stated in my very opening posts, but otherwise later she seems more okay.
Nerwen - spoke about above.

MORE MORE LIKE INNOCENT
The Elf-warrior - from the little he sent seeming innocentish enough to me.
Lommy - seems like her honest self well enough.
Volo - seeming honest enough to me, the only possiblity of something fishy there would be if his self-vote was really with some intention.

RED ZONE
Nogrod - see my many posts above.

Also even about those I have marked as less suspicious, bear in mind that I have several people possibly paired, so if one turns wolf, I'd look at the other - see in my other posts. If that happens.

So, from this it would seem for me to vote against Nogrod as the most probable thing.

EDIT: x-ed since Sally.

[Volo]

Le pain est un aliment de base dans de nombreuses sociétés humaines. Il est fabriqué à partir de farine, de levure ou levain, de sel et d'eau.

I'm halfway reading through Nogrod and I feel quite concerned about him. Apart from that I'm fearing that Mith is using our trust in her words against us.
Nerwen's latest post looks more genuine, although I know that a Wolwen can pull out such posts with seeming ease.

I am however still at a loss of whom to vote. While I could say that Noggie is my main suspect, I'm not confident enough to risk losing an Innocent Noggie at this point.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I was not afraid that the wolves might jump particularly on my vote. Where did you get that idea? I was speaking mostly on general principles

Well you said this:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I was, of course, afraid of wolves jumping on my vote

edit: bolded also the "of course" as that should be noticed as well...

[Gwathagor]

My first inclination is that there's got to be something going on around Lommy, Legate, and Nogrod. There seems to be a great deal of reactionism and righteous indignation and even a few flippant remarks, which are used to brush off accusations without giving them due consideration. Nogrod and Legate feel (yeah, yeah, I know) more wolf-like than Lommy at this point. Nogrod looks bad because he has been right in the thick of everything since Day 1. Legate seems serpentine and sneaky - rational, but quietly twisting arguments and words (both Nerwen and Lommy called him on this). Lommy's posting style seems more relaxed and casual than the other two. This could be a carefully studied act, but I am not prepared to vote against her yet.

However, it might just be that these three players stand out the most because they have been the most vocal. When I've played before, it seems like while there might be one wolf out in the open (i.e. among Lommy, Nogrod, and Legate), the other two are usually hiding among the quiet players. Oddwen looks the worst of the quiet to me - but you all seem to be convinced that Lhuna found her innocent? To me, her sparse, non-involved voting/posting pattern seems like that of either a scavenging wolf or an irresponsible innocent.

Volo's explanation of his vote makes sense. It doesn't make me happy, but I have to admit that his reasoning makes sense.

I have to go try to work up a case against one of my suspects before I vote. Lots of reading to do.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Lommy's posting style seems more relaxed and casual than the other two.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Also, I'm not downplaying your thoughts by labeling them as preaching. I think it's always worth it to hear what people have to say - even if it is nonsense. I was just expressing my annoyance at you obviously thinking me stupid and repeating your old speech about being nice. Everyone here has probably heard it dozens of times and I don't tend to be delighted by people thinking I'm an idiot. That is why what you said struck me as useless preaching - and now that I think of it, sort of trying to appear good. And my apologies if I'm offensive, I don't mean to be, but I think Nog won't think I hate him if I complain to him or be offended by my honest opinion (at least I hope so...) or do anything as silly, so I don't feel like hiding my message between nice "flowery" talk.

Have we been reading the same thread Gwath or are you trying to get allies rubbing them the right way?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why did you vote for her, Nogrod?

If you read the thread you'd have the answer. I suspected Volo (and the teamplay of Volo & Lhuna) the most alongside Gwath. In the end it seemed no one else was ready to vote for Volo so I would have wasted my vote on him. There were already two votes on Lhuna so the theory of them two being wolves could be checked by voting Lhuna. And I'm not trying to cover or sweeten my vote afterwards. I believed it was the best option I had then. It ended in a disaster to be sure but that's hindsight as we know know what she was. But we didn't then.