How many in Battle of 5 Armies?

[The Sixth Wizard]

If the dwarves were seriously considering a pitched battle between them and the Elven-Laketown alliance, the latter force could have been no more than say 350 men a piece, and I could imagine that number outside the gates of Erebor yet unable to break through. Maybe a 450-250 split in Mannish favour.

Compared to the 10,000 orcs at Helm's Deep and the tens of thousands at the Pelennor Fields, seems rather a skirmish, does it not?

[skip spence]

Now this is conjecture but I think the numbers of elves and men were far greater than Dain’s 500. We are told for certain that their numbers were greater, just not by how much. Something about the situation convinces at least me that the dwarves don’t pose a credible military threat to the elves (nor an easy victory mind you). Out in the open the hosts of men and elves would surely win had it come to battle, but no one wants this, especially not the (somewhat) wise Thranduil. If they were set on reclaiming their part of the treasure (or more) at any cost they could have stormed the Mountain before Dain arrived for a quick but expensive victory. Now the elves were loath to fight dwarves, natural allies against Mordor, but more importantly, Thranduil knew well he could not afford the cost of a victory. Had he killed Thorin in his own halls a bitter war with the longbeards would surely be the outcome and that’s the last thing Thranduil wants. Thorin knows all of this too of course, and he’s confident Thranduil won’t dare open the can of worms battle is whatever the outcome. He’s hoping that Dain can reach the Mountain without too much bloodshed, and with him in his ranks he could fortify the mountain well enough to make an assault upon it near impossible. Then, no one could make any demands of him. Neither now they can, he’s thinking, overcome with greed and pride.

When Dain finally arrives it all boils over quickly. Thranduil and Bard realise the dwarves cannot be allowed to reach the mountain halls. If they do, they might as well go home again empty-handed, as they can’t not besiege a whole mountain. Of course Dain is well aware of the situation and the stakes involved. But as soon as he spots confusion and weakness he goes all in and makes for the gate without further delay, realising his chance is now. He’s hoping it won’t come to blows too, but if it does, he has no hesitation as his duty is clear to him: he’s coming to the aid of his kinsman and lord; other concerns are secondary. Now Tranduil and Bard has the choice of fighting a battle they in all likelyhood would win, but to a cost unaffordable (T. understands this, B. does not), or to let the dwarves have their way. The wise desicion would be to leave them and the treasure be but greed and pride, ever the deadliest sins in Middle Earth, stands in the way once again. We will never know what would’ve happened had the goblins not attacked, but I’m guessing a hard and bitter fight on the slopes where the three to five thousand elves and men fought and killed most of the 500 dwarves, to a terrible cost in lives, there and more importantly later, when the word had gotten around to other vindictive dwarves. Sauron would rub his hands like Monty Burns. *Excellent.*

Did the goblins save middle earth? Maybe, says this poster

[Groin Redbeard]

Very good point skip spence.

Although I don't consider Thraundil to be wise I don't believe him to be stupid. I'm sure that as soon as he heard about Thorin reclaiming the Lonely Mountain he would empty his hall, which cannot be more than 1000, and set out for Esgaroth.

I thought that his lust for the jewels was completely unfounded. He treated Thorin, chief of Durin's folk, as no more than common vagabond, and then when all the dirty work is done he is at the slopes of Esgaroth with an army ready to take the mountain by force if neccasary and he didn't give an ounce of help!

[Eönwë]

No, I think Thranduil is wise. The only problem is that he is also very greedy. He seems to me like one of the Sons of Feanor, willing to get the treasure (Though the Sons had a more personal reason, and it wasn't just any treasure, but you saw what happened to them when they did recover the last 2) at any cost. He has a weakness for gold and jewels, and can't help himself. He has to increase his already enormous (and ever growing) horde of treasure

[Gwathagor]

One could conceivably estimate the population of Laketown, based on the size of the lake and the extent of the industries thereabouts and the need for labor, but how do we begin to guess the size of the Elvish army? Tolkien's description of the caves doesn't give us much to go on. However...Thranduil only had one butler, so I suppose he couldn't have had TOO many people living down there...and they certainly weren't all warriors. I might be inclined to say that Groin's estimate of around 1000 soldiers in the Elvish army might even be too high. I'd guess around half that.

[skip spence]

I just browsed this episope in The Hobbit and found another mention of numbers. Now my copy is in Swedish, but I assume the translator hasn't taken the freedom to invent a number. If someone's up to digging out the proper quotes I'd appreciate it.

It is told that Elven archers first let arrows rain over the Ork host and that a thousand spearmen charged in afterwards. These spearmen are presumably only a part of Thranduils army. It is also told that the elves' spears and swords shone in the evening sun, indicating that not all Elven melee fighters used spears as their primary weapon, further supporting the theory that the thousand spearmen were not the entire elven army.

So I think my assumtion that Thranduil brougth several thousand elves out of Mirkwood holds out fairly well.

Also, would Thranduil feel comfortable that their superiour numbers would be enough if the Dwarves of Dain had only slightly fewer warriors then he did? I think not. These dwarves were veterans of the Ork wars with superiour equipment and strength compared to the rustic and frail woodland elves. Out in in the open Thranduild would not have been so cocky had his men not had a great numerical advantage.

As for the men of Lake Town it is hard to say. I'd definitely say fewer than a thousand, if not only a few hundred.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by skip spence

It is told that Elven archers first let arrows rain over the Ork host and that a thousand spearmen charged in afterwards. These spearmen are presumable inly a part of Thranduils army. It is also told that the elven spears and swords shone in the evening sun, indicating that not all Elven melee fighters used spears as their primary weapon, further supporting the theory that the thousand spearmen were not the entire elven army.

So I think my assumtion that the Thranduil brougth several thousand elves out of Grenwood holds out fairly well.

That's a good point. It sounds like 1000 would actually be a low estimate.

[Morthoron]

Originally Posted by skip spence

These dwarves were veterans of the Ork wars with superiour equipment and strength compared to the rustic and frail woodland elves. Out in in the open Thranduild would not have been so cocky had his men not had a great numerical advantage.

Please supply a reference to the Elves of Mirkwood being frail. These same Elves followed Oropher and Thranduil into the War of the Last Alliance, and then later fought along with Celeborn's Lothlorien forces in the War of the Ring. By Tolkien's description, they seem well-equipped and fierce at the Battle of Five Armies. I would say the Dwarves were at a definite disadvantage in the open, and there are references to the fact they are much more dangerous in the close environment of their subterranean realms (where the bulk of the Dwarf and Orc War was fought).