Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

[Mithalwen]

Mac dear, wpould you ahve preferred me to vote for you - that was the only other option given I believed Boro-dear innocent ? At least at the time I actually voted...

[Mithalwen]

well that was confusing. I have to go now, I hope things will be clearer tomorrow as I won't have a lot of time.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Mac dear, wpould you ahve preferred me to vote for you - that was the only other option given I believed Boro-dear innocent ? At least at the time I actually voted...

I certainly wouldn't have preferred you to vote for me. However, your desire to save Boro would make you look bad if he is evil. But then, you're so open about wanting to save him, I doubt a wolf would be so close to another. There's the possibility that you're evil and trying to get the trust of Bordomir, but I think there are better leads to follow at the moment.

[Mithalwen]

That would be a pointless activity. And I hope I would not be quite so crass .... in game marriage or not ..
If Boro is a wolf I am just wrong not a fellow wolf. Rikae's vote had taken the pressure off saving his neck. If I had been a wolf I would have voted for you for certain to avoid this suspicion. It is probably not fair but if push comes ot shove - which is often the case on day ones - I prefer to keep around those I feel are innocent , people I enjoy playing with, and people who contribute a lot to the game. I don't know Gwathagor at all but I know it would have been a pity to lose you or Boro so soon. Innocent or guilty you are players...

and I really must go now...

[Boromir88]

I really don't trust Mith now. Usually she is a "breath of fresh air" like our dear Kath (who not be present in this village); something seems rotten with her:

Maybe I should have gone for Mac but I feel more strongly about Boro's innocence than anyone's guilt....~Mith

This doesn't sit right...you feel "strongly" about my innocence, eh, dear? Do you feel so "strongly" that you know I'm innocent? (So, at this point...just to make sure everyone is on the same page...I'm saying Mithis a wolf).

I guess Sally went becasue she posted little and left little trace - but Aganzir and McCaber also had a low post count.

As pointed out Agan is not a viable option...but are you simply "guessing" sally went because of such and such...or do you know for a fact? (Again, if we aren't clear, I'm saying here Mith is a wolf).

This argument is one of my favorites to see...

Well statistically one of us should be a wolf. I know it isn't me and if you are innocent Lommie it narrows the possibilities!!!!!

(and so we're all clear, I'm saying here Mith is a wolf)

I wonder if Mith is handing herself over to us as a sacrifice today, because she's doing a good job of posting often today, yet not saying anything. Mith's typical calm, reserved self is refreshing to have in a hectic village, but she's not doing that. She's posting either a bunch of nonsensical buddy-buddy stuff, or is pushing for the lynching of the quieter people.

My adorable puppy is calling to go have some fun in the snow, so I will be away, then I have a conference from 7 til about 9 pm, but I'll be back before heading to bed tonight to respond to Nogrod's point...

But I also think it a bit far-fetched that so many declared while voting that they don't want to see Boro lynched - which I think never was an actual option. So some sweet-talkin there?

While I am touched yall wanted to save me...I smell a set up a brewing.

I just wanted to bring out my uneasiness about Mith, that's what struck out at me early on in this day.

[Nogrod]

I took a quick scroll through yesterDay to look at both Volo and McCaber as they left me puzzled in the end of the Day.

McCaber's posts can be given here in their entirety as there is not much of them.

Early post:

Originally Posted by McCaber #34

Nice to see you, too, Sally. As much as I don't want to become a Cabe-kabob, maybe I'll actually give you something to look at this time. And Pappa Volo, I'll try not to disappoint you toDay.

I do enjoy the more experienced ones throwing around suspicion. So I think I'll try it too:

I like how Gwath is refraining from forming an opinion. He could be not trying to leave a paper trail of suspects. Not a full-on point yet, but it could become one.

Anyway, I'll return soon with some serious thoughts in a while. Supper awaits, if I can find some in this house of doom.

Ten minutes before the deadline:

Originally Posted by McCab #119

Please don't forget I exist. I'll even try to be loud on the next Days to make up for this. I'm in the middle of prepping for class, but I should still have time to vote.

Boro seems to know what he's doing, and he raises good points. I would prefer it was not him lynched today.

Gwath looks bad to me, but I'm still not sure. I'll get some thoughts soon and vote quickly.

Three minutes before:

Originally Posted by McCab #130

I hate to this, but here it is.

++Gwathagor

I'm still not completely sure, but several things he did just put me off.

And now here I am joining a bandwagon...

Now there is something here that looks contradictory or wrong. A kind of self-conscious "newbieness" added with vagueness that feels deliberate. Let me give a few examples to explain (read more form the posts above):
- "I do enjoy the more experienced ones throwing around suspicion. So I think I'll try it too:"
- "Please don't forget I exist. I'll even try to be loud on the next Days to make up for this."
- "And now here I am joining a bandwagon..."

And he managed to sail through the whole Day with no one in practise even realising he was in the game in the first place! In his first games he has used basically the same tactics - only taking a bit more bigger role later in the game.

What I mean is that he should not be underestimated because he wears a newbie-mask for a mask it is I must say: he was just superb in his first games. I'm not sure if this is enough to lynch him but if he's a submarine-wolf we can't but blame ourselves in the end. In the last two games people fell for it.

Darn it's getting late.

I'll post my thoughts on Volo tomorrow as I have an early morning call...

[Nerwen]

Hello. Once again, I have failed to vote on Day One. I'm sorry– I'm doing a rather heavy course and possibly I shouldn't have signed up for the game.

I will look at Sally's posts in detail, because someone needs to, though as I recall she didn't say much of any substance.

I also need to read through the posts around the deadline, because it seems like there was some peculiar stuff happening there.

Back soon.

[Rikae]

Well, there we go. My top two suspects were innocent -- don't listen to me.

I'm actually pretty mystified at the moment, I'll admit. I have a creepy feeling about Lommy, and it's only getting creepier, but as I can't explain it I can't really rely on it much. Mith's "certainty" of Boro's innocence and Boro's mistrust of Mith look very odd - I'm inclined to think there may be a wolf between them.
McCaber's insubstantialness yesterday can be busyness and dayoneishness, but I agree with Nogrod that those comments -- which seem rather selfconscious -- were strange.

I'm going to look over yesterday's votes a little more closely when I get the chance -- perhaps some wolf voted suspciously safely or something -- worth a look, anyway. As for Sally's death, it seems odd to me in that she was attracting some suspicion -- I would expect the wolves to choose someone generally seen as innocent. Still, I've never been one to think much can be learned from nightly kills -- there are too many variables (in the last game, Legate, Cab and I chose Lommy simply because everyone else got killed early too often, or was new!) Not to be discouraging, mind you, but I can't make anything of it, at least.

EDIT: Spelling, X'd with Nerwen

[McCaber]

Wow, Day 2 and I'm already at the center of attention. Thanks, guys. I guess I deserve it, though.

One point, though. When I voted, Gwath was the worst-looking of my suspects. I was considering others, but I went with my initial feelings. And If I'm not mistaken, the Caber-waggon started rolling just before my vote, but it really picked up just after. My vote was not to save myself. If it was, I would have said so.

Now I need to take a long look at things and say something constructive.

[Durelin]

Well, I suppose Sally was telling the truth this time.

As everyone seems to be, I am at a loss about Sally. The first Night with a kill, and it's the most sporadic player...I don't see there being any trails to follow back to anyone. And I agree with Rikae. The nightly kills only say so much. It's what people say and do during the Day that really counts. Which brings me to...

That landslide against Gwath still bothers me. Of course the initial run for Boro confuses me, but that's a slightly less worrisome feeling.

That was such an easy lynch after enough people started jumping on Gwath's "mistakes." Which brings me back to Rikae. Her hesitance to vote for Gwath rather than just making her vote and blending in with the rest makes me feel better about her.

And I agree with several people (Boro, Mac...who else?) that there is something fishy about the whole "oh it's to save Boro!" thing.

For one thing, as Boro has pointed out himself...we don't know who is innocent, unless we are guilty ourselves. Secondly...Gwath got 6 legitimate votes, 7 with Volo's. I'd say that's a bit more than just saving him.

A Little Green, Mith, and McCaber seem the most guilty to me. I don't expect all three are, but possibly two. McCaber actually seems the least guilty of the three now that I look back. Yes, I know, makes me look like an idiot for trying to start a run at him, but with that deadline coming up fast I did not quite have the time to think about it. Which is no excuse, but hey... McCab just seems so careless in his posts and really I think his vote was rather careless, unless of course he wasn't aware that he was getting any attention (which I guess is careless, too...).

Mac also bothers me. He could have just voted for Lommy if he really wanted to make a statement, instead of just off-handedly wishing she was a lynch-candidate. But that would stand out more.

*shrugs and wanders off*

[Nerwen]

Sally–

#22. Silly banter. Asks Gwath if he's volunteering himself to be lynched (this is because he posted first and said "First!"). Says she suspects McCaber– but this seems to be a joke (I'm not sure he'd even posted yet).

#29. Tone still jokey, but there is a bit more substance. Finds Mac and Menel somewhat suspicious for going after Lommy, but finds Lommy's explanation of her playing style odd too. Then says,

I do the same thing a lot of times. I'm a terrible bluff, so if I'm lying it's pretty easy to catch me on it. Besides, I'm insufferably honest, which also means that if I am a wolf, I won't lie about it.

Then she again expresses her desire to lynch McCaber, but again it sounds like a joke– no reason given.

#32. Short post, all banter.

#50. (Replying to Rikae)

I'm not a wolf. And don't worry, I really am not a wolf. I promise.

Says she hates first days and that she has

nothing really to go on, just silly banter and half-hearted accusations

#77. Votes Boro, giving no reason other than gut feeling. Yet more banter.

That's it. She hasn't said anything that I can see as making her dangerous.

I'd say she was picked as a safe kill– except that she's said things that would have made her an easy lynch toDay. She was also under suspicion because of the perceived connection between her and Durelin. YesterDay most people were taking the line, "Oh well, that's Sally– who knows?" –but surely it would have been easy for the wolves to turn that around.

EDIT: fixed bolding.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Mith

I mean nothing for an hour then a flurry in ten minutes ... cannot believe you all just arrived....

Time zones probably, well, for me at least. It's a bad habit of looking to my clock at the wrong time and posting when it's 'talk time' here. I'm really trying to break out of it.

It does seem obvious that Sally was unfortunately a very good move for the wolves, one example I think that lead to this was her confessing that she wasn't a wolf and our general impression of this.

Either you believed or didn't believe her, but she didn't give any ultimate vibes immediately that she was a wolf bluffing in the worst way possible, or she was acting out as fenris bait (where one wolf takes the dive to fuddle up the reasoning of the villagers. I don't know how common this is now, but I've been fenris bait before and they certainly bit, and played in another game where wolves tried the same thing and ended up ruining the reasoning we made.).
It's only a thing wolves would do if they were either very confident of the action, or they knew by leading astray and making up a new suspicion list that they could afford to loose one of their own and bag the villagers at the same time. Though, this is reasonably done later in the game, so even if Sally was a wolf, I don't think our wolvie friends would do this (if they didn't already know about it yet.).

Though, since Sally really didn't make any strong or direct connection to a group or certain player, she was isolated and our current suspicion list pushed her towards the bottom, where we were expecting maybe Nogrod or Nerwen to be attacked last Night (which would make us say, "Ah ha! See? They attacked them because they pushed too many of the right buttons!"), but by taking Sally out of the picture is a random killing at first, but a good one that has no leads.

Unfortunately, wolvies, I think you can only play that card maybe once or twice before it becomes old like herring, and we smell something fishy.
Plus, everyone seems to know one another well enough to suspect each other, so it won't be as easy to pick someone out at random this time, unless they just don't post at all, but that is a loss for both parties since no one learns anything.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Not sure I entirely agree. I don't think that a Wolf-Ka would suggest killing Sally, but she might agree with such a proposal, so in my opinion Sally's death does not exonerate THE Ka.

Good point. Mac, thank you, but that isn't the strongest point to make in arguing for my innocence or no. If I was a wolf arguing last night that killing Sally would be beneficial to diverting attention or just general confusion, I would agree, but I have more inclination to hit more to the point and save my own skin and any suspicion around me so that my fellow wolves would not loose anymore than they need to (as a wolf, you have to be oh so selfish for the greater good of wolfy kind.). Sally's attack was a good one, but I prefer an observation, wait for someone else to make the first move, then strike somewhere that is more generally to my benefit method, but not too obvious (like going after someone that has been hounding at you all Day... generally they are loud enough for other players to remember what they said.) so that it labels me or fellow wolves in the game the next Day.

I'd like to say more, but I need to go over a few more posts again, and I'm awaiting Volo to appear sometime and answer my question... hopefully, if he wants to be that honest.

~ Ka

[Meneltarmacil]

Ungh...

I have a lot of work to do, and I doubt I'll be posting much at all toDay.

I'm inclined to suspect Mac and McCaber. The former was suspicious enough yesterDay, and I doubt that the Gwathagor bandwagon was entirely wolf-free. McCaber got a lot of votes near the end, and if he's a Wolf, it would explain why the Gwathwagon needed reinforcement.

I know, I should provide more reasons, etc. but I don't have the time right now. I'm sorry.

*goes back to drowning in homework*

[Rikae]

A Not So Brief History of the Lynching of St. Gwathagor, Ordo and Martyr.
(if you feel I misrepresented you, please correct me)


Joking (except things after dashes)
Lommy banters with Gwath.
Nogrod says Lommy is making sense, unlike Gwath.
Mac says to Gwath “First to be lynched? Not a problem. I can manage. :P”
----Menel suspects Lommy for provoking and casting suspicion on Gwath.
----Lommy denies casting suspicion on Gwath.
Sally continues joking about Gwath volunteering for lynching.
----Menel insists Lommy cast suspicion on Gwath, refers to it as “abuse”

Beginning of mild suspicion
McCaber says Gwath is avoiding leaving a paper trail, refraining from forming an opinion.
---- Gwath argues with Menel about Lommy, saying people's playing styles do change as wolves.


Gwath's “jump” on Boro (* for suspicion, @ for defense --- including mild and indirect)
---- Gwath argues with Boro about Sally and Durelin and why they overlooked Boro's suspicion.
*Rikae analyzes Gwath's indirect defense of Sally and Durelin, concludes he may be a wolf with one.
Gwath says it was not a defense, but more a criticism of Boro.
----Gwath says first days are rubbish until they're over, and after that they're just cryptic.
Gwath says he didn't actually defend Sally and Durelin until his “fix it” post.
@Nerwen thinks Sally and Durelin might be suspicious but it's less likely Gwath is part of it.
@Nerwen defends Gwath, saying he was trying to be helpful and offer an alternative explanation.
@Greenie thinks Rikae's accusation of Gwath is worrisome for leaving out the possibility Nerwen just mentioned. Says Gwath looks genuine enough.
@Lommy says Rikae wants everyone to keep talking about the Lommygwathsallydurelinboro thing. (look, no dashes! :P)
*Rikae clarifies she was calling Gwath's first post the defense, calls it very knee-jerk and jumpy.
Rikae says Lommy and Mac are probably more suspicious than Gwathsallydurelin.
*Boro says Rikae is onto something with suspicions of Gwath. Thinks Greenie is defending Gwath suspciously.
*Nogrod calls Gwath's indirect defense of Sally and Durelin fishy.
*Nogrod says two out of Sallydurelingwath could well be wolves.
Durelin says that Gwath is defensive (along with Mac) and attempting to be very pleasant (along with Menel and Nogrod)
Greenie puts Gwath in her yellowish-green zone


Gwath's Vote for Boro
Gwath votes for Boro for “anti-rational methodology”
*Greenie says she's uneasy about Gwath's vote
*Boro says Gwath's vote looks evil.
@ Volo says Gwath looks innocent to him.
*Rikae more suspicious of Gwath and Sally because of their votes, puts Gwath in wolfiest category.
Boro asks for Nogrod's thoughts on Gwath and Volo. [my note: Wolf looking for a bandwagon?]
*Lommy calls Gwath's vote suspcious, but “he could be the easy newbie lynch victim”. Puts him in most suspicious category.
@ Menel says Gwath doesn't seem too suspicious, given that Mac seemed more aggressive than Boro.
*Nogrod says “the alarm bells are ringing a bit louder now” for Gwath. He lists Menel and Mac as more suspicious, though.
*Mac says he doesn't like Gwath's vote, and Boro has a point against him.
*Lommy “could vote for Volo, McCaber, Gwath or Mac”.
Boro votes for Gwath
*Nogrod says Gwath may be a good candidate “he has raised enough eyebrows”, his vote, and his death might shed light on the Sally/Dury thing.
@Lommy says she'd rather vote Volo or Cabbie than Gwath.
@Durelin calls Gwath's vote “too bold for a wolf”, Gwath “too easy pickins'”
Rikae understands where Durelin's coming from, but still, Gwath is the best suspicion she's got.
*Mith says it wouldn't be the first time a novice wolf made the first post.
*McCaber says Gwath looks bad to him, but he's still not sure.
Greenie votes for Gwath (his vote is horrible and his lynching will shed light on things)
Volo says Gwath might be a wolf, but feels too easy.
Rikae votes for Gwath
Mith votes for Gwath “I don't want Boro lynched”
McCaber votes for Gwath
Volo votes for Gwath
Mac votes for Gwath “but I'd very much prefer Lommy”




Now, a few thoughts:


Nogrod helped gradually raise the suspicion level on Gwath, but did not vote for him. Slightly creepy...
Nerwen looks more or less sincere.
Durelin's certainty of Gwath's innocence seems possibly too certain.
Boro does indeed look bad. He played a major role in building suspicion towards Gwath but did not start it, and fished around for support before voting.
The way Mith pops in with added accusations once the bandwagon has begun to roll, but acts as though her vote is to protect Boro, looks a bit fishy.
Mac didn't do anything particularly suspicious in yesterday's voting. There is still something I don't like in his tone, though.
Menel says things that don't make sense, as far as I can see, but I don't know if that's necessarily wolfish.
Volo is off the wall and votes for Gwath after having defended him. Explanation?
The way McCaber came to his decision, although not very helpful, seems honest enough.
THE Ka managed to stay out of the whole controversy completely. Not sure what to make of that...
Lommy first defends Gwath, then is fairly neutral and doesn't vote for him. Not suspicious in this regard.
Greenie follows the crowd in a rather suspcious manner.

If yesterday's voting shook out a few wolves from their hiding places, I think there is a good chance they'll be found among some combination of Boro, Mith, Greenie, or possibly Nogrod or Durelin.

EDIT: Added a space, because I'm geeky like that.