Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

[Mithalwen]

Am I the only one around? Shall I talk to myself? I can not stay indefinitely and may have to vote early tomorrow - so if you ignore me now don't you dare say I was quiet then!!!

I guess Sally went becasue she posted little and left little trace - but Aganzir and McCaber also had a low post count.

This gives a few possibilities .... there is a wolf among the quieter posters (statistically probable - but equally true that there will be one among the loudmouths). That Mc Caber had attracted enough suspicion for him to be a likely lynch target today and so if he is innocent the wolves stood a good chance of all surviving another day. That one of the lower number posters had posted something that might be incriminating which might be drawn attention to by that persons death. Greenie might be the likeliest candidate for that. So htat is what I am going to look at aswell as that vote mayhem.....

[Thinlómien]

I'm not sure if agree with you, Mith. I'm not sure I can follow your logic on how Sally's death incriminates Greenie. And even as the low post-count Aganzir seems to be a wolf we can't unfortunately lynch her as she's the mod.

I think Sally might have been killed because quite many considered her innocent. Also, like Mith already said, her death leaves little tracks. But none of this means we should dismiss what she said yesterDay: I will have a little look at her yesterday's post when I have time and see if there's anything interesting.

Also, yesterday's voting was a bit odd. I'm going to have a look at it right now, especially as I think there might have been a couple of things I would have responded to had I had more time.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm not sure if agree with you, Mith. I'm not sure I can follow your logic on how Sally's death incriminates Greenie. And even as the low post-count Aganzir seems to be a wolf we can't unfortunately lynch her as she's the mod.
.

Gah ..yes for Aganzir read Greenie .... (if it ain't one Finn its another ) ..they all posted less than the mod which is always a little strange ... I meant that if Greenie is innocent she may have been left alive because her posting was more substantive. If she had been killed instead of Sally we would have perhaps looked at her posts and found a clue. So it isn't that Sally's death incriminates Greenie (other than increasing the probability) but that of the low posters, Greenie's death might have given us more clues.. or not...

However since Greenie presumably is sharing a computer with someone who posts a lot...there may be absolutely nothing in this...... I was thinking aloud...

[Nogrod]

The tally with minutes before the deadline the vote was cast in brackets.

(early votes)
Sally -> Boro
Gwath -> Boro 2

(-46) Menel -> Mac (Boro 2, Mac 1)
(-27) Boro -> Gwath (Boro 2, Mac 1, Gwath 1)

(-9) Greenie -> Gwath (Boro 2, Gwath 2, Mac 1)

(-6) Rikae -> Gwath (Gwath 3, Boro 2, Mac 1)

(-4) Mith -> Gwath (Gwath 4, Boro 2, Mac 1)

(-3) McCaber -> Gwath (Gwath 5, Boro 2, Mac 1)

(-2) Dury -> McCaber (Gwath 5, Boro 2, Mac 1, McCaber 1)
(-2) Nogrod -> McCaber (Gwath 5, Boro 2, Mac 1, McCaber 2)
(-2) Volo -> Ka (trying to retract to Gwath) (Gwath 5, Boro 2, Mac 1, McCaber 2, The Ka 1)

(-1) Lommy -> McCaber (Gwath 5, Boro 2, Mac 1, McCaber 3, The Ka 1)

(00) Mac -> Gwath (Gwath 6, Boro 2, Mac 1, McCaber 3, The Ka 1)

+ on overtime
The Ka -> McCaber

[EDIT: Nerwen didn't vote.]

Thoughts coming soon...

[Nogrod]

The first thing that confuses me in yesterDay's voting is the fact that even if it felt that many people started thinking lynching of Gwath a bad idea during the last half hour he still got lynched with a clear majority. And I must say that the merry agreement reached by that great numbers looks fishy indeed. Is there a greater place to hide for a wolf but within an unanimous bandwaggon?

Okay there is the question of relative risk we already discussed yesterDay. But I also think it a bit far-fetched that so many declared while voting that they don't want to see Boro lynched - which I think never was an actual option. So some sweet-talkin there?

Also Volo's vote looks not only confusing (the retraction thing) but also a bit fishy as he says two minutes before the deadline that he is "widening the vote scope"! And that in practice nailed it down and took Gwath to the gallows - or saved McCaber, whichever way you want to see it.

EDIT: X'd with a few

[Nogrod]

And some people say my narrations can be grotesque at times...

I'm bending towards the same explanation as Lommy that Sally was killed because she wasn't suspected too much and her death seems to leave no tracks. But it still is kind of out of the blue choice. Maybe the wolves just wanted us to waste the whole Day searching for the (possibly non-existant) sense behind that?

But I'm up to see the voting as well first.

EDIT: X'd with Mac and Ka