Werewolf XLII, Mist in the Barrow Downs

[A Little Green]

Alright, then.

After reading toDay's posts I find my thoughts very contradictory. There are three people I find suspicious, but according to my reasoning all three can't be wolves.

In addition to the troublesome Aganzir-voting issue, Mac's latest post seemed very fishy to me. First of all, the beginning

Originally Posted by Mac

Aganzir was innocent. Dammit.

looks, sorry to say, just false. Secondly,

Originally Posted by Mac

Don't you think that's a tad convenient? Why don't you reveal a little bit of your own thought processes first. I'm very curious what exactly it was that made you vote Aganzir yesterDay. The way I see it, you could very well be a wolf (together with Sally?) who took advantage of the possibility to start a bandwaggon against an innocent.

This looks... bad. Though he's got a point, the way he very quickly, almost aggressively, turns the suspicion from himself to Gwath looks furry to me. To start a bandwaggon? While Gwath's post was

Originally Posted by Gwath

OK, here we go.

I am going to vote

+ + Aganzir

because she is Pretty Suspicious, whereas everyone else is either Fairly Suspicious or Not Very Suspicious.

your next one was

Originally Posted by Mac

Rikae, could I persuade you to vote Aganzir?

Which one looks more like the start of a bandwagon, may I ask?

Rikae's confidence not only in Mac's innocence but also in Nerwen's guilt (her reference to "Nerwolf" in her latest post) strikes me as very weird. How can she be so certain, especially after being mistaken about Agan? I don't know what to think about her. Her behaviour looks suspicious, but somehow I'd think that she was more careful if she were a wolf.

Gwath is still fishy-looking, not because of the Agan-vote but because of his Day1 behaviour (the same reasons I suspected him for then), and because there was something weird in his toDay's post. I don't suspect him as much as I did on Day1, however.

I'm quite convinced one of these three is a wolf, probably Rikae or Mac, most probably Mac. Though Rikae and Mac are my main suspects at the moment, I don't think both of them are wolves. They would be playing a very bold game indeed if they were. But which one of them is, I cannot say. Mac looks both more and less suspicious, if you get what I mean.

And Sally, I'd appreciate it if you stated why do you suspect me, so I could better defend myself.

EDIT: x-ed with Legate and Mac

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Gwath is still fishy-looking, not because of the Agan-vote but because of his Day1 behaviour (the same reasons I suspected him for then), and because there was something weird in his toDay's post. I don't suspect him as much as I did on Day1, however.

Today's post was convoluted because I added stuff when I edited it. So the natural flow of thought got kind of screwed up.

EDIT: X-ed with loads of people

[Nerwen]

Gwathagor, you shouldn't edit your posts, except for stuff like mentioning you x'd with people. Posts are all the evidence we have to go on– and people can think you changed something incriminating.

Well, your explanation sounds innocent enough (if you're a wolf you're doing well)– and also pretty straightforward. I don't know why Macalaure can't follow it.

[Gwathagor]

Sorry. I won't do it anymore.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Rikae's confidence not only in Mac's innocence but also in Nerwen's guilt (her reference to "Nerwolf" in her latest post) strikes me as very weird. How can she be so certain, especially after being mistaken about Agan?

I am not certain about Nerwen. I said “It may be that Nerwolf escaped” (italics added). The words “may be” clearly indicate uncertainty, but there is no uncertainty about whether Nerwen escaped, so clearly the uncertain possibility is whether, in fact, Nerwolf escaped, ie, whether Nerwen is a wolf. I do think it's likely, for reasons I'll explain in a moment.


Now, regarding Macalaure, I am indeed quite confident about his innocence, and it has nothing to do with “the rose garden.” Mac is a good player, but I don't think he's good enough to hide his role from me. I know him better than anyone, and I can spot a wolvish Mac. If we had one of those on our hands, I'd be the first to point it out and call for his lynching (as I did in Nogrod's game) I find the implication that I wouldn't vaguely insulting.


Now, why I find Nerwen suspicious (although she is not the only one, especially after some of the nonsense I've witnessed toDay), also concerns Macalaure, because the main thing that bothers me about her is the way she seemed to try and paint his attempt to start a debate as something it wasn't – it didn't read like normal misinterpretation to me, but as misrepresentation.
Added to that is the way she avoided voting, while still managing to look as though she tried to vote. Sure, it could be an honest debate – but wouldn't it be convenient, especially in the light of the fact that the Agan-voters seem to be the only ones under scrutiny toDay? It actually doesn't make sense, because the last place a wolf generally wants to be is in a small group that lynches an innocent. It suits them much better to throw their votes away and remain untraceable – and if they can get away with not voting, they get to cast accusations anywhere they like without having the suspect's innocence revealed.


Speaking of this, I find it extremely unnerving that all the suspicion toDay is directed at the Agan voters while those who did not vote, or who voted safely, get a free ride. I can imagine the wolves laughing in the shadows, while everyone focuses on Mac and I – in fact, I'm the only person, yesterday, who took any risk at all, and yes, my vote basically decided the lynch. I voted for the person who looked most suspicious out of those I could vote for and prevent the lynching of the person who looked most innocent, and that's, after all, all I could do. I'm confident I can read Mac, but this doesn't mean I can read everyone. Still, I'll post my impressions of everyone in a minute, and see if that gets us anywhere.

EDIT: X'd with Noggie/ added spaces (typo)

[Meneltarmacil]

While I believe you would point out a wolfish Mac under normal circumstances, Rikae, I still consider you to be my prime suspect. A wolf would, at best, send a subtle hint to her fellow wolf to get him to keep his head down, or would do nothing at all until she had a chance to PM him at Night. If Mac is not a wolf, you would simply let him live so he'd draw suspicion away from you.

[Rikae]

McCaber, could you elaborate? Why do you find both Nerwen and Mac suspicious? What doesn't match up about Greenie's posts?

[Gwathagor]

Both Thinlomien and Aganzir voted to execute Macalaure yesterDay, and now both of them are dead. I find this suspicious. Granted, I cast the first vote against Aganzir, but the decisive votes were Macalaure's and Rikae's. Maybe werewolf Macalaure (and possible compatriot Rikae?) found it in their best interests to eliminate his chief accusers?

Sally's over-the-top posting style is so completely impenetrable and obscure that I really don't know what to make of her; however, it would be a decent disguise for a werewolf, if one was to maintain it consistently, as one could simply attribute any discrepancies or oddities to one's posting style.

Shasta and McCaber are only suspicious because they haven't said much, and I'm inclined to think that at least one of the werewolves would be hiding in the shadows, rather than in the midst of the discussion with its fellows. It stands to reason that they wouldn't be found all in one place.

I don't know what to make of the others yet.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Both Thinlomien and Aganzir voted to execute Macalaure yesterDay, and now both of them are dead. I find this suspicious. Granted, I cast the first vote against Aganzir, but the decisive votes were Macalaure's and Rikae's. Maybe werewolf Macalaure (and possible compatriot Rikae?) found it in their best interests to eliminate his chief accusers?

Well, I think you already said that, actually, Gwath, but I can see why you find it worth repeating, since everyone seems to agree with you.

Actually, I've been wondering how this "meme" of "a wolf among the Aganzir voters" got started, so I think I'll look a little closer at its development.

Gwath started it (in fact, he really started it yesterDay, as he knew Mac and I would both prefer voting for Aganzir to any of the other options):

Originally Posted by Gwath

Since Aganzir was innocent, and the wolves knew she was innocent, it seems likely that one or more of them would have voted to execute her. So, if I'm right, either myself, Rikae, or Macalaure could be a wolf.

I didn't respond to this at the time, because I thought it was an obvious newbie-blunder and didnt need a response. I mean, any experienced player would recognize the likelihood of innocents lynching innocents, especially on day one, right? Not to mention the absurdity of assuming that wolves would vote for someone "because they knew she was innocent", when they knew 10 people were innocent...
but it appears not, because:

Originally Posted by Legate

About those voters. I think it's probable that there could be a wolf among Aganzir-voters.

No reason given - I suppose you agree with Gwath's reasoning, then, Legate? Or does it just suit your purposes to ensure that the voting is focused on innocents again toDay?
Then Sally decided to one-up Legate and Gwath with:

Originally Posted by Sally

Honestly, I don't think there's a wolf in that group. I think there's two.

Her explanation being:

Originally Posted by Sally

a wolf (or wolves for that matter) jumped on the chance to get Agan out of the way.

Now, why exactly the wolves would want to get Agan out of the way, she doesn't say. Why exactly she thinks it's wolfish that I chose to vote for someone I found suspicious, rather than unsuspicious, I don't know -- nor why it's wolfish for Mac to save himself. I'm not saying Sally is a wolf -- I think she probably isn't -- but this is really not good reasoning.
Still, Gwath has said it and Legate gone along with it --- so why shouldn't Sally follow suit?

When corrected by Mac about his "5 minutes" statement (a twisting of the facts that has gone ignored), Legate replies:

Originally Posted by Legate

Yes, you are right. However, I am aware of the fact that it might have suited a wolf to raise such a last minute bandwaggon - and imagine what would've happened if for example Aganzir were a Seer.

Yeah, sure, but was there, as I said before, any more reason to think Agan was the seer than that Sally, Shasta, Menel or Gwath was? Not that I can see. This is not an argument at all, but amid all the mist that seems to be floating around toDay, it passes for one.

Greenie then joins the crowd -- clearly the "troublesome Aganzir voting issue" needs no further clarification, as it's obvious at this point that a wolf will be found among the Aganzir-voters. Greenie then goes on to raise very insubstantive points against all three... actually, if there were ever a case of a wolf riding the waves in the most deliberately uncontroversial way possible, Greenie's post is a perfect example.

Anyway, from that point forward, almost no one has looked at anyone but Mac. Nogrod seems to think he's a wolf primarily for "downplaying anything we could learn from Lommy's death", but really, Noggie, do you think a wolf-Mac would be so foolish as to kill both people who suspect him? I'm not saying he mightn't do it for other reasons, but he certainly wouldn't do it to eliminate them, and therefore isn't any more likely to be a wolf on that basis than not. I also can't see him saying, under any circumstances, "The wolves tried to frame me!" I wouldn't, anyway, regardless of my role -- it's a silly and defensive thing to say. Open your eyes, Nogrod.

Well, I've written another novel, I fear... but I'm becoming very frustrated with this village. Everyone seems to be piling nonsense on top of nonsense and I'm fairly sure the real wolves are slipping through our fingers (while adding just the right twisted words, here and there, to keep the nonsense going.)

I think we have too many people allowing their suspicions to be influenced by others' opinions rather than by actually reading the posts. For me, the most evil looking players here are those who repeat others' words, or give flimsy reasons to suspect those already suspected - those are wolvish behaviors, and the parties most guilty of this are Greenie and Legate.

EDIT: X'd with McCaber and Gwath

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, I think you already said that, actually, Gwath, but I can see why you find it worth repeating, since everyone seems to agree with you.

Nope, first time I've mentioned it. It only just occurred to me.

[Rikae]

Sorry to double post, but something just occurred to me:

Originally Posted by Me

Gwath started it (in fact, he really started it yesterDay, as he knew Mac and I would both prefer voting for Aganzir to any of the other options):

Why did Gwath choose Agan, after all? He could have voted for anyone -- he hadn't listed any previous suspicions, after all, so he had a "clean slate". However, regardless for which of the people already on the list he voted, he could be pretty sure Mac would follow his vote to save himself. Now, if Gwath knew they were all innocent, he wouldn't want to put himself in a position of being responsible for an innocent's death, would he?

But by choosing someone who didn't have a vote yet, he basically absolved himself of responsibility for anyone's death. It wouldn't be possible for Mac to save himself that way until I followed Gwath's vote, and thus the choice became mine and Mac's rather than Gwath's. He seems to have been well aware of that, too, because he made sure to mention it right off the bat toDay.

I'm beginning to reconsider my suspicions...

EDIT: X'd with Gwath - I suppose that's partly true, since before you only claimed we wanted to eliminate Aganzir because she was innocent, rather than because she suspected Mac - still, same old tune: "Mac and/or Rikae is a wolf". Besides, Nogrod, I believe, already brought up the point of Aganzir and Lommy both suspecting Mac.

[Meneltarmacil]

The situation I'm seeing here is this:

We've got a Rikae-Macalaure-Sally team of wolves going on here,.

Rikae was suspicious enough yesterDay, and my suspicion level has jumped quite a bit toDay. She and Macalaure constantly defend one anoother, and as Nogrod and I have observed, they've both been doing a good job of overlooking each other's wolfish aspects.

Sally has been suggested before as a possible third wolf, and I'm inclined to agree based on the voting patterns of Rikae and Mac, something that has been pointed out.

I'm convinced that Rikae is a wolf, and Macalaure is a close second. Sally is a distinct possibility, but I suspect the other two more.

[McCaber]

But of course, sister Rikae. First, on Nerwen. Her posts such as

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I mean, if your idea was to encourage the wolves to act silly, and to go after anyone who was being helpful (thus revealing themselves), how did you plan to accuse them– when you'd previously said what they were doing was the hallmark of innocence?

and

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sally's vote for Shasta was perhaps the single most wolfish thing anyone has done today. Or rather, not the vote itself, since Shasta was already under a bit of suspicion, but the reasons she gave for it.

strike me as a wolf trying to cast suspicion on innocents. She seems waiting for a mistake to pounce on it to try to make an issue of it.

Nogrod and Menel have raised the possibility of a Mac/Rikae wolf team. I do not say that this is impossible, but I think that it is unlikely. Rikae strikes me as slightly more innocent, because such as

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Let us go for one who flies under the radar, one who doesn't say anything controversial, one who seems eager to not rub people the wrong way.

seems too perfect a wolf scheme to pass up. I do realize that this point has been argued about, but it and everything which comes after does not change my suspicions much. Perhaps the interplay between Nerwen and Mac is merely wolves trying to throw the village off. It seems much too serious for that, but perhaps ...

And about this Lily Green. I do not know why she found Gwathagor suspicious on the last Day, and she explained it not. Admittedly, she changed her focus, but it would still be the best to know why she suspected him and not others. That is not the main reason I look at her, but a factor nonetheless. I just find some quality missing in her posts toDay that was there on the last. It seems as if she realized something was not working in her schemes and suddenly switched tactics.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by McCaber

And about this Lily Green. I do not know why she found Gwathagor suspicious on the last Day, and she explained it not. Admittedly, she changed her focus, but it would still be the best to know why she suspected him and not others. That is not the main reason I look at her, but a factor nonetheless. I just find some quality missing in her posts toDay that was there on the last. It seems as if she realized something was not working in her schemes and suddenly switched tactics.

It's possible that A Little Green voted for me because earlier I had voiced suspicions about her. Also, I have been a little erratic thus far; the newbie mask would fit a wolf very well.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I can spot a wolvish Mac. If we had one of those on our hands, I'd be the first to point it out and call for his lynching (as I did in Nogrod's game) I find the implication that I wouldn't vaguely insulting.

It's not only money that makes the world go around...

I do agree with Rikae that those laying the last and / or deciding votes are normally the most scrutinised the next Day and careful wolves will do anything to avoid getting into that situation. But bold wolves will take it as a test, or excitement, and to further their goals - in a word to have fun. I know it as I've done it myself a few times.

But even you Rikae can't deny that Mac's first posts toDay were terribly wolfy. Check them again if you don't see it. He did indeed get better later the Day but those first ones... I might have let him go and concentrate on other areas if not for those posts.

Still just looking at the situation right now I'd be very happy to see fresh openings. I need to go to sleep myself though (1 AM here).

Losing innocent Agan and Lommy has been bad as they are ones who can make a difference with their keen eyes. I'm getting very careful with my votes and whom I would suggest people should vote - if that had any consequence in the first place.

[Rikae]

Legate - He's giving me a bad feeling, and it has nothing to do with his insolence. He encourages the focus on the Agan-voters --- which is not particularly good wolf-hunting strategy and something he should know better than to join. He has a way about him that seems to twist people's intentions and describe situations in slanted ways.
McCaber - At this point, he's getting away with lurking in the shadows and contributing exactly nothing.
Sally - I still find her innocentish, though strange and misguided.
Gwathagor - He hasn't done anything to make me think he's a wolf, but he hasn't done anything to make me think him innocent either. I don't find his vote for Aganzir suspicious because she was suspicious, but I do find the sudden way he placed it somewhat questionable.
A Little Green - The whole joking/not joking business yesterday was questionable, and toDay she seems to bring up flimsy reasons for her suspicions.
Macalaure - As I've said, he reads as sincere to me. A word about his 'dammit' - he curses that odd way often, and I thought it was insincere at first too, seeing it in print. You see it isn't when you've heard him speak, and I don't think anything of it.
Nerwen - As I said in my previous post - she looks wolfy to me.
Meneltarmacil - I was determined not to suspect him yesterday, simply because he's easy to wrongly suspect, mostly because of the absolute and determined attitude he takes. I don't know what to make of him --- when he says things like "Aganzir was hardly considered a genuine target before" or "Rikae fell right into [Mac's]trap", I have to think that he couldn't possibly be *that* confused, and that there may be malicious intent there.
Rikae - Hey, that's me!
Shasta - He, even more than McCaber, is getting away with flying under the radar, big time. In such a small village, it really shouldn't be tolerated.

Wolfyest:

Nerwen
Greenie
Legate

Wolfy:
McCaber
Menel
Shasta

Unwolfy:
Sally
Gwath
Mac

EDIT: X'd with Menel and Nogrod

[Rikae]

Whoa - I just left Nogrod off my list!
Somehow it got erased when I was typing Legate's entry, I think.
Well, there isn't really much to say. I'm glad to see he's posting more toDay, as I was beginning to miss the old Nogrod - he seems up to his old tricks re: Mac and I, but I don't find him suspicious... he goes in the "Unwolfy" category.