Werewolf XLII: The meaning of life forever

[satansaloser2005]

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From : Volo
To : satansaloser2005
Date : 2008-01-14 12:42
Title : WW42 ROLE!
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You are a Werewolf!

Your fellows will be revealed to you during Night1.

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From : Volo
To : Aganzir, Brinniel, satansaloser2005, Thinlómien, Valier
Date : 2008-01-22 14:12
Title : Wolves!
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Hello dear Wolves!

Congratulations on surviving!

You may now PM one another at Nights.

ModVolo

PS: Friend Valier would like to inform you that she'll be around only after six hours or so from now (deadline time).

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From : Thinlómien
To : Aganzir, Brinniel, satansaloser2005, Valier
Date : 2008-01-22 14:21
Title : Full moooooooooooooooooooooon
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Hello fellows.

I'd love to start with a cheerful greeting but I'm afraid I can't. Really. I think we're going to lose this game: we have no kill toNight and one of us (=me) is practically lynched already. The gifteds and lynch-informations are going to make up a list of known innocents really quickly. I really can't see us winning this game, at least not with a normal style.

So, I think we should play a totally crazy game. Like, vote for the same person (no one is ever going to believe we're all wolves if we vote the same person, however silly the reason), come out as gifteds and lie ruthlessly about the roles of the lynched. It should be fun.

I've been toying with the idea of coming out as a seer toMorrow. I could say I've been under so much suspicion that I'm afraid I will be lynched. I would announce Nogrod and possibly someone else too as wolves - or claim somebody innocent. Then, just imagine, if you all "believed" me, we could possibly get one 95% sure gifted lynched and no one would catch us all. It's be hilarious.

Yes, I'm quite sure Noggie is gifted, because I'm a wolf and TM seemed very ordoish. As to what gifted, I think he might be the assassin/hunter thing, as he joked to me in RL that he's going to kill me on Night1.

I've already discussed these things with Aganzir to a little extent - pardon us, but Volo was as lenient as to tell us each others' identities a bit too early and we had happened to plan to meet today anyway - but I'd very much like to hear everybody else's opinions - especially if you'd like traditional-style wolfing or something totally crazy, and if something crazy, then what do you think of my suggestions?

-Lommie

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From : Aganzir
To : Brinniel, satansaloser2005, Thinlómien, Valier
Date : 2008-01-22 15:42
Title : Howl
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I wonder what it is that Sauron attracts only female warriors this time...

Brinn, you can't believe how happy I was when Volo *eventually* told you are a wolf (he's the second greatest liar I've ever met. I asked him about my fellows after my pre-day, and he gave me different names every day after that).
The first time you're wolf here, sally? I'm rather looking forward to this. You're such a mad player.
And I'm happy you are a wolf also, Valier. You would have been among my killing preferences otherwise - I found you scary.
Lommy m'dear... Nice to get to prowl with you at last. Let's hope it lasts more than this one night.
I'm sorry to lose such players as Roa and Greenie. If not for McCaber failing to vote, Roa would probably be here among us now. I think he deserves to be lynched for that.

Okay. My opinion is the same as Lommy's - that we don't have good chances to win. The reasons?
*numbers. There are 6 gifteds, and even if there was a cobbler, it's quite a big number.
*seers. This is not entirely fair, but as it's Volo's own fault I don't mind sharing it (not that it couldn't be guessed anyway). I was discussing with him in MSN and he said "you'd better get rid of the defenders during stage 1." So there are surely at least two of them.
*it's too easy to find known innocents. Usually it would take a defender two nights to find out if their dream is gifted or a wolf, but with the pre days they have one known wolf / innocent by tomorrow. In the worst case, two of us are revealed this early. And for every lynched wolf whose role is revealed, there's one known innocent.
*we will soon face a situation when the known innocents outnumber our chances to kill them. When that happens our battle is lost.

I agree about Nog probably being a gifted. Menel could be also, or am I reading too much?

Originally Posted by Menel

You could either be a villager in the dark about things, or a wolf pretending to be a villager, but there's nothing to suggest either one.

Anyway, we must remember that there probably are some cobblers alive as well. It'd be evil from Volo to have two of each good gifteds and only one cobbler. We wondered with Lommy if Rikae could be a cobbler - she said she wasn't sure about Lommy's wolfishness. I'm almost certain Shasta wasn't a gifted, so Ka probably is.

I think we can't afford to lynch Lommy on Day 1 if we want to be rid of Nogrod. My guess is that he would be protected the night after lynching Lommy - and by very bad luck it'd even be a ranger who received Lommy's role. But if Nog is a hunter/assassin thing, he's not too dangerous for us after he's killed one (and that is Lommy, if she's not lynched before that). So yup, the best idea would probably be to get him lynched before he has a chance to kill.

We must remember that decisive vote thing. Surely we don't want anyone to be able to have themselves protected? If possible, we should at least try that one of us is the one to cast the decisive vote.

I would love to play a crazy game.
But if we want to win, sacrifices must be made. The best way would probably be that a couple of us ruthlessly lynched the others and tried to make it through by themselves. Anyway, I prefer the idea of losing but playing a totally unforeseen and memorable game.

Labelling all the fellows as innocents? Seriously trying to lynch all of us? Playing gifteds just for fun (that might even reveal some of them from their hiding places)? Lying about the lynched player's role? Lying about receiving the lynched player's role when actually didn't? All voting for the same person? Making a bandwagon just out of the blue when it's already quite probable that someone else will be lynched?

The thing is, the first person to reveal something is generally believed. It'd be nice to see if that's only because the first person to reveal is usually not lying.

At the beginning, I thought I would try not to lie at once. If we aim for winning, I'm willing to continue like that, but in case we're going to make this a total chaos I'm just happy to abandon truth.

Anyway. Whatever our goal is, I'd like to have a strategy. I've never before got to play with a proper strategy, and it'd be very nice to try that. To even find a way to discuss during the days would be great.

What say you?

-Agan

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From : Brinniel
To : Aganzir, satansaloser2005, Thinlómien, Valier
Date : 2008-01-22 19:31
Title : Re: Howl
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Urgh, I was really hoping Volo wouldn't reveal to everyone the number of wolves and gifteds left alive. That's another disadvantage towards us...

Since I've realised I'm a really bad guesser (especially after Nogrod's game), I decided to play as an ordinary for my Day and throw out my suspicions since I had a 2/3 chance of being wrong. In the case of Nogrod/Lommy, I was split between the two so I chose to go after Lommy...very sorry about that one, Lommy...

Obviously those of us who did suspect Lommy cannot simply drop it...that would be suspicious in itself. But at the same time I'd rather not get her lynched because Nogrod as a known innocent (and probably gifted) would be plain dangerous. So while we should still suspect Lommy, maybe we should redirect attention to someone else. Lommy may still be suspicious, but there are other innocents who have been suspected too...Nogrod, Menel, Zali come to mind.

While I'd love to get Nogrod out of the way toMorrow or the next Night, once he's dead Lommy certainly will be lynched next. Of course, it'd still be better to for Nogrod to die before Lommy does...

We are at a disadvantage with so many gifteds (especially two seers...eek!), but at least with so many, it should be easier to eliminate them. What I'm worried about with the seers is that they're probably going to dream their living opponent from their Day and that means two different seers might know the identity of two different wolves come Day 2.

When it comes to Night pickings, we will have to be careful with whom we pick. Some ordinaries already lynched a lot of people are going to assume innocent...such as Might, Shasta, Groin, and Gil...these newbies/no shows/suicidals were easy for us to lynch but most people won't see them as suspicious in the long run. So I think whenever Nogrod, Ka, Zali, or Kath gets killed, a wolf will be heavily at risk. Of course, that's a lot of people, so we might just have to sacrifice a wolf early on...

I don't know...we may be at a disadvantage, but I still think we have a fair shot. Only one of us has to survive for us to win, and it's quite possible as long as we can eliminate all the seers. Plus we have a cobbler(s) on our side who can also examine the dead.

I'm totally for playing crazy as long as it means completely confusing everyone for a win. Revealing is a good idea, though it only works for a Day or so. Starting a new bandwagon from nowhere can work (we all know Aganzir can pull that off real well ).

Okay, a thought just came to mind...it could work for toMorrow or afterwards:

When I think about it, if someone really wanted to sacrifice themself, we might actually have a good chance of winning. If a wolf started the bandwagon against another wolf and every single other wolf ganged up too and voted that one wolf, no one would suspect that. Especially if it was a wolf who made the deciding vote to lynch another wolf. Because while it's normal for wolf-on-wolf votes to occur, I don't think the innocents will expect every wolf to do a wolf-on-wolf vote. It'd take them a long time (if ever) for them to figure it out...though it'd only work if only we were the ones responsible for starting the bandwagon and not the innocents. No wolf should try to make their vote look like a safe wolf-on-wolf vote; we should all play boldly. Even better, if an innocent mistakenly tried to save the wolf getting lynched, they could easily be targeted the next Day. But of course, we'd have to have a wolf who wants to sacrifice themself like that...and whoever that is need to be able to put up a pretty good show, but still manage to gain the trust (and not votes) of at least some innocents (a unanimous vote would make this pointless). I don't know...it could just be crazy enough to work. What do you guys think?

We may be at the disadvantage, but I still want a shot at winning. After all, I haven't managed to win a game since Legate's...

-Brinn

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From : satansaloser2005
To : Aganzir, Brinniel, Thinlómien, Valier
Date : 2008-01-22 19:38
Title : *evil raucous laughter*
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Ah, to return from work and find a message aligning me with the likes of you all. Huzzah, an army of she-wolves which shall trample our village like none has been trampled before! *more evil raucous laughter*

Okay, enough of that. I agree with Lommie. I think at least one of us should come forward as fake gifteds.
I actually kind of assumed we might have to do this and so in my analysis of Legate I gave the slightest hint that I myself was a gifted (post 224, where I eliminated four of the five gifteds for Legate's role, and left one unspoken). This was actually a mistake, because I got the counsellor and the guardian mixed up and aligned myself with the latter, a wolf-assisting post. But no matter. Either way I've hopefully managed to give myself the appearance of gifted, which might come in handy later if someone conveniently gets overanalytical with my posts. Whatever butters your toast.
What we choose to do with gifteds is up for further discussion, as we can't all just go off half-cocked claiming seership. Course I'm confident a pack of pros like yourselves can come up with quite a cunning plot by the "morning".


Brinn, your message just popped up. In response, I agree that those of us that were after Lommie should stay in that direction. The rest of us can go after Noggie if necessary. Divide and conquer of sorts hehe.

K I should send this sometime soon as I've got a few assignments due tomorrow that I need to start on before my friend Emily comes over for supper. I'll be around for the rest of my night to reply to any messages and such.

Good job surviving the preliminary battles my hairy cohorts. Let's kick this village's tail!


~~Sally~~

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From : satansaloser2005
To : Aganzir, Brinniel, Thinlómien, Valier
Date : 2008-01-22 19:42
Title : FW: *evil raucous laughter*
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Okay, I'm really going in a bit here. But I just finished reading Brinn's message. The part about the wolf sacrifice in a couple days is something to seriously consider, especially if the first day or two doesn't go in our favor. I hate to have to sacrifice one of our own, but if it helps the group and we have a willing lynchee I'm not completely against the idea.

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From : Valier
To : Aganzir, Brinniel, satansaloser2005, Thinlómien
Date : 2008-01-22 21:43
Title : mwahahaha
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I agree, lets turn this village upside!!!! It's a little crappy that we can't talk during the day, so have to make sure we pay attention to what each other is doing, so we know to play along or not to any craziness.

I think I will probably be a person of great interest tomorrow. If everyone looks at the days as they go I was on the first day. Quite a few people have voiced suspicion towards me. I think I should play up the innocent as far as it will take me. But I am willing to sacrifice myself.

Let me try and see how much confusion I can spread in a few days, if at anytime it looks like I'm going down, let's have a code phrase like....every one's going crazy!!

If I say that in the first line of any of my posts, all of you start a bandwagon against me as Brinn suggested. This will at least save a few of you. Since no one would suspect that all the wolves would bandwagon and lynch a fellow. We need to be one of the first if not the first and last to vote for me, sealing my fate.

I think all of us should come up with a bit of a plan of their own to mess with everyone and do it.

I like the idea of lying about roles, deaths etc... I say we lie about everything. LOL everyone of us should make up something or do something weird or suspicious, then we have a greater chance of one of us sneaking by as innocent. let's come up with something for each of us to do the next day, every night. They won't expect all of us to be bold and weird and not caring if we lynch each other.

I do think we should be careful about too many of us arguing, as that does sound a lot like a recent game, where all the wolves went after each other and got lynched.

So my plan for tomorrow is to play the innocent, but if it looks like it's not going to work, then I will say (every one's going crazy!!) in the beggining of my post then all of you start voting for me. I really can see me being the object of lynchdom tomorrow, but let's hope I can sway others away from me.

I rushed this a bit, but I will be home all night and right up until the day starts, so please I would like to hear back from all of you or some of you...lol

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From : Brinniel
To : Aganzir, satansaloser2005, Thinlómien, Valier
Date : 2008-01-22 22:34
Title : Re: mwahahaha
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Well Valier, I think Lommy will receive more pressure than you, but I'm sure you'll be suspected as well.

But I actually agree with Valier's choice to sacrifice herself. Because while Lommy may seem the easier target, I fear if she becomes our sacrifice we will end up with a unanimous vote. With Valier, suspecting her may be sensible to some innocents while others may disagree.

Yet I don't think we should all pursue it until we know we're ready to...with Valier's keyword, for example. But we shouldn't gang up on her all at once. I think there should be one of us who actively pursues her from the very start, say Aganzir, since she already suspected her and can be quite persuasive. If Lommy's in serious trouble, it might be good for us to find a way to turn the tables and have people bandwagon towards Valier. And if Lommy managed to make the deciding vote (say if there were a tie), that would take a lot of heat off her.

If for some reason Valier doesn't get lynched right away, we can still continue this plan into the next Day (and we'll have another Night to discuss). Surely no one would expect all the wolves to be so persistent on lynching their packmate for multiple Days!

It's extremely late, so I'm heading to bed...

P.S. I'm going to Belgium this weekend and I haven't decided if I should take my computer or not. The first hotel I'm staying at looks secure enough, but I don't know about the hostel. I'd rather not drag around my laptop, but at the same time I wouldn't want to miss out on the fun. If I don't take my laptop, I'd be missing part of Day 1, Night 2, Day 2, and half of Night 3. Ugh, that's a lot. You know what, I'll really try to bring my laptop as long I know it'll be secure...but I still won't be able to participate as much as I'd like. Sorry for the inconvenience...I'll let you know what happens asap.

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From : satansaloser2005
To : Aganzir, Brinniel, Thinlómien, Valier
Date : 2008-01-23 00:04
Title : mwahahahahaha
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Originally Posted by Brinniel

P.S. I'm going to Belgium this weekend and I haven't decided if I should take my computer or not. The first hotel I'm staying at looks secure enough, but I don't know about the hostel. I'd rather not drag around my laptop, but at the same time I wouldn't want to miss out on the fun. If I don't take my laptop, I'd be missing part of Day 1, Night 2, Day 2, and half of Night 3. Ugh, that's a lot. You know what, I'll really try to bring my laptop as long I know it'll be secure...but I still won't be able to participate as much as I'd like. Sorry for the inconvenience...I'll let you know what happens asap.

Okay no problem. Just keep us posted wolfie dear. On that note....I probably won't be able to check my messages until around like midDay-ish. Aka my first day won't be terribly active because I have a few things I need to take care of to wrap up my current class and suchness. So I'll probably have to swing in after that and do all my posting, voting if necessary, etc. Just letting you all know.

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From : Thinlómien
To : Aganzir, Brinniel, satansaloser2005, Valier
Date : 2008-01-23 04:18
Title : hello again
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Originally Posted by Agan

I'm sorry to lose such players as Roa and Greenie.

Me too. Though (as Greenie is my sister and we live in the same room) I think I and Greenie wouldn't have managed to play it all fairly - the temptation to advise each other during the days would have been a bit too big. The good thing in losing Roa and Greenie is that they weren't very suspected, so we can do nice cases against those who were in the same trials with them.

Originally Posted by Agan

Anyway, we must remember that there probably are some cobblers alive as well. It'd be evil from Volo to have two of each good gifteds and only one cobbler.

I'm afraid we two are making Volo sound like a really bad mod, but I think he slipped to me that there are more than one councillors, when I complained to him about the fact that we have no kill toNight.

Originally Posted by Brinn

very sorry about that one, Lommy...

Heh, no problem.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Obviously those of us who did suspect Lommy cannot simply drop it...that would be suspicious in itself.

Yes. But those who had their trial days before me could. Double bluff. I mean, I don't think anyone's going to seriously assume the wolves are going to stop suspecting their fellows after the trials since there was so much talk about it Day0.

Originally Posted by Brinn

While I'd love to get Nogrod out of the way toMorrow or the next Night, once he's dead Lommy certainly will be lynched next. Of course, it'd still be better to for Nogrod to die before Lommy does...

yes, but we can consider me dead already: with this many suspectors and a persistent Nogrod against me, I doubt I can survive for more than one or two Days...

And if we managed to get Noggie lynched toMorrow but I'd get lynched the next Day, well, we could all concentrate most of the discussion to accusing and lynching me instead of "looking for wolves" and with good luck others would follow our lead and even though a wolf would be lynched, the Day would be quite useless for the innocents.

Originally Posted by Sally

What we choose to do with gifteds is up for further discussion, as we can't all just go off half-cocked claiming seership. Course I'm confident a pack of pros like yourselves can come up with quite a cunning plot by the "morning".

Maybe I'm just tired but I'm laughing at the idea that what if we all came out as seers on Day1 and started arguing with each other and hopefully would manage to get the real seers into the debate as well... It'd be more than hilarious. But I think it'd make us lose in the end, so that was not a serious suggestion.

Originally Posted by Brinn

P.S. I'm going to Belgium this weekend and I haven't decided if I should take my computer or not. The first hotel I'm staying at looks secure enough, but I don't know about the hostel. I'd rather not drag around my laptop, but at the same time I wouldn't want to miss out on the fun. If I don't take my laptop, I'd be missing part of Day 1, Night 2, Day 2, and half of Night 3. Ugh, that's a lot. You know what, I'll really try to bring my laptop as long I know it'll be secure...but I still won't be able to participate as much as I'd like. Sorry for the inconvenience...I'll let you know what happens asap.

No problem. At least one of us will be able to slip under the radar then.

I think there will be a lot of pressure on me toMorrow, Nogrod will take care of it. So what do you seriously think if I came out and claimed to be a seer? I would say I was so much suspected that I was afraid I'd get lynched. I could say that Might's post after our trial deadline convinced me of his innocence (because it really was the manifestation of ordoness) and thus I conclude that Noggie is a wolf. I could also say I dreamed of someone this Night and found him/her non-ordo. I think I could go for THE Ka. I could say that she's not an ordo, she herself might believe me if she's gifted like Agan thinks and I could reason coming out with her role by that I considered Agan innocent and Shasta didn't look giftedish, so I guess THE Ka is a wolf and even if not, well, I don't want to die without providing any information.

Now, two questions
1) Are there any serious flaws in this plan?
2) Am I overestimating the suspicion and lynch-mood towards myself?

And lastly, I'm not sure I understand what does this mean:

Originally Posted by The Rules

-Werewolves and the Guardian will be told of their victim's role if the attack is successful.

What has the guardian to do with this?

Looking forward to hearing from you (especially comments on my seer-plan)...

-Lommy

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From : Brinniel
To : Aganzir, satansaloser2005, Thinlómien, Valier
Date : 2008-01-23 06:31
Title : Re: hello again
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Originally Posted by Lommy

I think there will be a lot of pressure on me toMorrow, Nogrod will take care of it. So what do you seriously think if I came out and claimed to be a seer? I would say I was so much suspected that I was afraid I'd get lynched. I could say that Might's post after our trial deadline convinced me of his innocence (because it really was the manifestation of ordoness) and thus I conclude that Noggie is a wolf. I could also say I dreamed of someone this Night and found him/her non-ordo. I think I could go for THE Ka. I could say that she's not an ordo, she herself might believe me if she's gifted like Agan thinks and I could reason coming out with her role by that I considered Agan innocent and Shasta didn't look giftedish, so I guess THE Ka is a wolf and even if not, well, I don't want to die without providing any information.

Now, two questions
1) Are there any serious flaws in this plan?
2) Am I overestimating the suspicion and lynch-mood towards myself?

The only thing about coming out as the seer with confidence that Nogrod was a wolf and no other suspects is that once Nogrod was lynched, they probably wouldn't believe you anymore. I think in any case, you shouldn't reveal unless you feel quite confident you will be lynched. Otherwise...for all we know, suspicions could go quite differently than you think.

Another idea is to go with the sacrifice Valier plan...have maybe Aganzir start accusations and suddenly Lommy jumps on board. If people still are focused on lynching Lommy, then Lommy could reveal as a seer exposing Valier. And as mentioned, she could say she didn't dream Nogrod because she assumed Might innocent, therefore the former guilty. People would argue whether to lynch Valier or Nogrod...they'd probably choose Valier since she was the one dreamt of. Once proven a wolf, people would actually believe Lommy, so if they lynched Nogrod next and proved him innocent, they'd think it was an honest mistake. And since we could leave the possibility two protectors, she could keep this up for sometime.

The only problem is that if Lommy reveals, the real seers might reveal too. The risk of that is people might believe them and lynch Lommy...though the advantage everyone could just assume with her guilt, Valier must be innocent (therefore she should be protected).

If we wanted complete chaos, another thing we could do if a real seer reveals in reaction to Lommy is that Valier could reveal as a seer too in retaliation exposing Lommy as a wolf. Then we could have up to four people claiming seership...two would be wolves accurately declaring each other wolves. Who would expect that?

Either way, I think one of us is probably going to have to die either toMorrow or the next Day for the rest of us to survive.

One thing is that I seriously don't think we have to worry about a seer revealing their role unless one of us does first. The gifteds probably think they have the advantage over us, and so unless they think their life is seriously threatened the seer wouldn't want reveal until later in the game. A seer Lommy or Valier revealing would make sense because, like any other seer, they wouldn't do it unless their own life was threatened.

Does that make any sense? I hope so..

Originally Posted by Lommy

No problem. At least one of us will be able to slip under the radar then.

Heh, that's true. Because even if I bring my computer, my participation will be minimal. I have a RL reason for it, which I plan to state in the admin thread later. And since it's not like I'll be participating less by choice, others would be less inclined to vote me for the next two Days because I won't be able to be around enough to defend myself. If someone is unable to show up for a Day due to RL reasons, they are usually not lynched that Day because it's not fair...so hopefully I won't have to worry about getting lynched while I'm gone.

Originally Posted by Lommy

What has the guardian to do with this?

Well it looks like the guardian can kill someone at Night regardless whether that person is a wolf or not. So I guess Volo would let the guardian know whether they managed to snag a wolf.

What I'm trying to figure out, is does this mean that the roles of anyone who is killed at Night won't be revealed in narrations? Will only the wolves and guardian(s) have the possibility of knowing? I don't know...but maybe you guys should sneak an answer out of Volo...

-Brinn

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From : satansaloser2005
To : Aganzir, Brinniel, Thinlómien, Valier
Date : 2008-01-23 06:52
Title : Re: hello again
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Another idea is to go with the sacrifice Valier plan...have maybe Aganzir start accusations and suddenly Lommy jumps on board. If people still are focused on lynching Lommy, then Lommy could reveal as a seer exposing Valier. And as mentioned, she could say she didn't dream Nogrod because she assumed Might innocent, therefore the former guilty. People would argue whether to lynch Valier or Nogrod...they'd probably choose Valier since she was the one dreamt of. Once proven a wolf, people would actually believe Lommy, so if they lynched Nogrod next and proved him innocent, they'd think it was an honest mistake. And since we could leave the possibility two protectors, she could keep this up for sometime.

The only problem is that if Lommy reveals, the real seers might reveal too. The risk of that is people might believe them and lynch Lommy...though the advantage everyone could just assume with her guilt, Valier must be innocent (therefore she should be protected).

True. Although if we were forced to use this plan and Lommie is killed, the seer may check Val just in case they suspect a double bluff. Then two of us would be gone just like *snaps* that. But that is worst case scenario for that plan, and I doubt our situation will become that.....well, that sucky, to be blunt.

If we wanted complete chaos, another thing we could do if a real seer reveals in reaction to Lommy is that Valier could reveal as a seer too in retaliation exposing Lommy as a wolf. Then we could have up to four people claiming seership...two would be wolves accurately declaring each other wolves. Who would expect that?

Brinn, you're evil. But I like it. That could indeed be great fun, and if nothing else we'll be able to find ourselves a seer or two and odds are we'll be able to do away with them fairly quickly, or so I would hope. Besides, if both Lommie and Val are in danger, they might as well stir up some confusion and make a nice information profit out of the deal. And you're right, as I doubt that most people would think of TWO wolves claiming seer.

Either way, I think one of us is probably going to have to die either toMorrow or the next Day for the rest of us to survive.

Sad, but probably true. That's all I've got on that subject.

One thing is that I seriously don't think we have to worry about a seer revealing their role unless one of us does first. The gifteds probably think they have the advantage over us, and so unless they think their life is seriously threatened the seer wouldn't want reveal until later in the game. A seer Lommy or Valier revealing would make sense because, like any other seer, they wouldn't do it unless their own life was threatened.

Very true. I can see the gifteds now thinking to themselves that they must have the advantage. But even though they have more to their numbers than we do of ours doesn't mean they won't have their share of issues.

By the way, I'm pretty sure Miss Kath is a gifted. I just wanted to make sure I posted that somewhere because otherwise I'll forget. The fact that she was perfectly okay killing Gil says to me that she knew he wouldn't be a gifted, so she'd have a 50/50 chance of catching one of us. Not terribly hard to figure out, but it's almost 7am and I haven't really gone to bed, so forgive me.

Heh, that's true. Because even if I bring my computer, my participation will be minimal. I have a RL reason for it, which I plan to state in the admin thread later. And since it's not like I'll be participating less by choice, others would be less inclined to vote me for the next two Days because I won't be able to be around enough to defend myself. If someone is unable to show up for a Day due to RL reasons, they are usually not lynched that Day because it's not fair...so hopefully I won't have to worry about getting lynched while I'm gone.

True. Also, if your "slow day" is on a day where there's a lot of stuff going on, it might come in quite handy to have not been around. But that all depends on how the game goes. Either way, I'm sure that your absence can still work to our advantage. Erm, I mean....bah you understand. Hehe

What I'm trying to figure out, is does this mean that the roles of anyone who is killed at Night won't be revealed in narrations? Will only the wolves and guardian(s) have the possibility of knowing? I don't know...but maybe you guys should sneak an answer out of Volo...

I've been wondering that myself. Definitely need to ask Volo about it.

Sorry ladies, I'm just too lazy to bold this morning. Anyway, I need to get back to my paper, seeing how it's due in two hours and all that. Faretheewell until the Morning if I do not speak to you before then!

~~Sally~~

================================================== ==============================
From : Aganzir
To : Brinniel, satansaloser2005, Thinlómien, Valier
Date : 2008-01-23 07:23
Title : Good morn'
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Originally Posted by Brinny

Obviously those of us who did suspect Lommy cannot simply drop it...that would be suspicious in itself.

Unless we all did that. It can be argued whether all the wolves would do something so obviously wolfish. Anyway, I think we all should go for lynching either Menel, Zali or Nog tomorrow - they shouldn't be too hard lynches. At least that one of them is on everybody's suspect list?

Originally Posted by Lommy

Yes. But those who had their trial days before me could. Double bluff. I mean, I don't think anyone's going to seriously assume the wolves are going to stop suspecting their fellows after the trials since there was so much talk about it Day0.

True. And a good way is to suspect someone else so vocally and so much that people get the impression that you haven't necessarily stopped suspecting your previous suspect, he's just not the one you're most worried about at the moment.

Originally Posted by Brinn

When it comes to Night pickings, we will have to be careful with whom we pick.

The safest would be Naria, McCaber, Rikae and Izzy then. But on the other hand, bluffing might work. Let's say we killed eg. Zali and then said "Nay, the wolves are trying to frame Brinn. It would be too risky for a Brinnwolf to kill her." If there are enough people of like mind, it's more probable that those who are uncertain agree with us. Innocents don't want to get suspected because of disagreeing about something 1/3 of the village agrees.
I've been toying with the idea of rolling dice about the night kills. That would at least leave the village baffled.

The wolf-bandwagon is a nice idea. But that'd need a volunteer who hasn't been suspected that much. If we eg. lynched Lommy like that, there would be someone to say that these people he suspects would be bold enough to lynch their fellow who has already been under heavy suspicion in order to look better. Plus the reasons Brinn stated.
Anyway, I'm fine with being the one to suspect Valier. The only problem is that I'm not going to be around at the beginning of the day (first I'm sleeping and then at school). But I see what the situation looks like when I come and decide then what to do.

Originally Posted by sally

Either way I've hopefully managed to give myself the appearance of gifted, which might come in handy later if someone conveniently gets overanalytical with my posts.

Unless that someone is a counsellor who decides to make a case against a giftedish sally.

Originally Posted by Valier

I like the idea of lying about roles, deaths etc... I say we lie about everything.

We must be careful with lying about roles, though. If we lie about someone of whom a seer has dreamt, that'll give them a sure baddie, not to mention all the villagers that will be after us when we say that their trial fellow has the same role as them.

Originally Posted by Valier

I do think we should be careful about too many of us arguing, as that does sound a lot like a recent game, where all the wolves went after each other and got lynched.

I agree. But in the last game, there were two teams and the rules weren't as clear as here anyway.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Maybe I'm just tired but I'm laughing at the idea that what if we all came out as seers on Day1 and started arguing with each other and hopefully would manage to get the real seers into the debate as well...

Now that'd be hilarious indeed. Well, if it some day begins to seem we're going to lose, we could try.
But Lommy, I think you should come out as a seer - if not tomorrow, then later. And we should either believe you or clearly disbelieve you, but definitely not waver. But if you're not sure if you're going to do that, could you decide some code phrase you could post before doing that? Then, if some of us were around, we could somehow share our opinions about if that's wise or not.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Now, two questions
1) Are there any serious flaws in this plan?
2) Am I overestimating the suspicion and lynch-mood towards myself?

1) I can't see any.
2) I don't think so. But maybe you shouldn't do that at the beginning of the day, though, but first observe how people in general think about you.
I'm alright if you reveal Ka a non-ordo - even though it will look like you're protecting me when you're killed and your role revealed. Well, double bluff then.

Originally Posted by Lommy

What has the guardian to do with this?

The guardian has an ability to kill as well. He won't be revealed the role of our kill but his own.

Ok, I just noticed Brinn and sally's PMs that had come while I was writing this.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Once proven a wolf, people would actually believe Lommy, so if they lynched Nogrod next and proved him innocent, they'd think it was an honest mistake.

The only problem is the guardian. If Nogrod is one, he'll kill Lommy the next night. I just texted Volo and asked if he's going to reveal in the narrations who is killed by us and who by the guardian in case two kills occur, but he hasn't replied yet.

Originally Posted by Brinn

If we wanted complete chaos, another thing we could do if a real seer reveals in reaction to Lommy is that Valier could reveal as a seer too in retaliation exposing Lommy as a wolf. Then we could have up to four people claiming seership...two would be wolves accurately declaring each other wolves. Who would expect that?

You know what, I love that idea. But we won't be believed if Valier says she dreamt of Lommy, so she could maybe be a more logical seer than Lommy and say she dreamt of Menel?

Originally Posted by Brinn

What I'm trying to figure out, is does this mean that the roles of anyone who is killed at Night won't be revealed in narrations? Will only the wolves and guardian(s) have the possibility of knowing? I don't know...but maybe you guys should sneak an answer out of Volo...

I got that impression from the rules, but I guess we could ask him. If you see him at school today, Lommy?

Originally Posted by sally

Sad, but probably true. That's all I've got on that subject.

True. But, after all, you, Brinn and I have probably the best chances of surviving (excluding the possibility of a seer intervention)... And the more readily we're lynching our fellows now, the better our chances later.

Originally Posted by sally

The fact that she was perfectly okay killing Gil says to me that she knew he wouldn't be a gifted, so she'd have a 50/50 chance of catching one of us.

That was a good find. It was initially the same reason why I think Nog is a gifted - but I'm not sure if Nog finds gifteds or contribution more worthy.

I was planning to do some reading today in order to try to find gifteds, but as usual, I was too lazy to concentrate properly. However, there's this.

Originally Posted by Rikae, trial day

Now, on to my – what should I call you? Opponents? One of you isn't.

Again, I wonder if I'm reading too much. But I could take this as a cobbler hint. That was not actually necessary to say, I think, and besides, were Rikae an ordo, she wouldn't have known if the gifted was a cobbler.
I don't like this kind of reasoning too much, but anyway. Before the game started (with 18 players), I wondered how many there would be of each gifted, and (after Volo's slip) reached the conclusion that two seers and rangers, one hunter and cobbler. My guess was, though, that there would more likely be two cobblers than two hunters.
Maybe it's just better we left Rikae alive for now. Though, I don't think we can ever be sure that she's not leaving false cobbler hints.

I will post more something gifted-related later, but I must say I've never before played in a game where it's this easy to spot possible gifteds.

================================================== ==============================
From : satansaloser2005
To : Aganzir, Brinniel, Thinlómien, Valier
Date : 2008-01-23 07:42
Title : Re: Good morn'
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Originally Posted by Agan

Unless that someone is a counsellor who decides to make a case against a giftedish sally.

Hehe true. But I'll risk it.

Originally Posted by Agan

Well, if it some day begins to seem we're going to lose, we could try.
But Lommy, I think you should come out as a seer - if not tomorrow, then later. And we should either believe you or clearly disbelieve you, but definitely not waver. But if you're not sure if you're going to do that, could you decide some code phrase you could post before doing that? Then, if some of us were around, we could somehow share our opinions about if that's wise or not.

*hums James Bond theme music* Wow. I really DO need some sleep apparently. Again, I'm all up for a Lommie seer, provided that we don't mess up and kill the real ones. And I think that Lommie should defend at least one innocent. Doesn't matter who, but I think if Lommie is revealed as a fake seer the people she dreamed of will probably be under suspicion. Not that she shouldn't defend us as well, but she should have at least one innocent that she can vouch for to throw off suspicion. I'm up for suggestions as to who or how to do it. Your call in the end Lommie, but I agree we should have some sort of sign to put our antics into motion if necessary. Especially since my next day or two are really busy and so I probably will be quite on the side of non-brain-activity

Originally Posted by Agan

The only problem is the guardian. If Nogrod is one, he'll kill Lommy the next night. I just texted Volo and asked if he's going to reveal in the narrations who is killed by us and who by the guardian in case two kills occur, but he hasn't replied yet.

Am I the only one in the game who doesn't know anybody else in RL? Seriously, poor little college students in Nebraska get lonely sometimes....*fake cry*

Originally Posted by Agan

Again, I wonder if I'm reading too much. But I could take this as a cobbler hint. That was not actually necessary to say, I think, and besides, were Rikae an ordo, she wouldn't have known if the gifted was a cobbler.
I don't like this kind of reasoning too much, but anyway. Before the game started (with 18 players), I wondered how many there would be of each gifted, and (after Volo's slip) reached the conclusion that two seers and rangers, one hunter and cobbler. My guess was, though, that there would more likely be two cobblers than two hunters.
Maybe it's just better we left Rikae alive for now. Though, I don't think we can ever be sure that she's not leaving false cobbler hints.

You know....that DOES bear some looking into. I'll have to check it out as soon as I have a chance. Good eye to see that!


Okay must finish paper. I'm out for now. Leaving for class in about an hour so I'll be available until then and that'll be about it until Day starts, so I won't be able to reply after that. Later ladies!

================================================== ==============================
From : Thinlómien
To : Aganzir, Brinniel, satansaloser2005, Valier
Date : 2008-01-23 11:10
Title : Hmmm...
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My head hurts... This is doing no good to me.

I will be online right after the deadline but then it will take ages til I get online next time. With bad luck, I will be able to be online about 8-9pm GMT and then next time a bit before 2pm the next day... so I'm afraid it might mess up some plans.

And now this seer-thing is getting more complicated. I like this idea:

Another idea is to go with the sacrifice Valier plan...have maybe Aganzir start accusations and suddenly Lommy jumps on board. If people still are focused on lynching Lommy, then Lommy could reveal as a seer exposing Valier. And as mentioned, she could say she didn't dream Nogrod because she assumed Might innocent, therefore the former guilty. People would argue whether to lynch Valier or Nogrod...they'd probably choose Valier since she was the one dreamt of. Once proven a wolf, people would actually believe Lommy, so if they lynched Nogrod next and proved him innocent, they'd think it was an honest mistake. And since we could leave the possibility two protectors, she could keep this up for sometime.

Even though there is a major problem to this. I couldn't expose Valier because if I were a real seer I would only know that she's not an ordo. And there's nothing that would heavily point at her being a wolf so this is a bit difficult... can any of you think of a way to avoid this problem?

Originally Posted by Brinn

The only problem is that if Lommy reveals, the real seers might reveal too. The risk of that is people might believe them and lynch Lommy...though the advantage everyone could just assume with her guilt, Valier must be innocent (therefore she should be protected).

I don't think they will reveal. There is probably two of them, so they can't automatically assume I'm a fake.

Originally Posted by Brinn

If we wanted complete chaos, another thing we could do if a real seer reveals in reaction to Lommy is that Valier could reveal as a seer too in retaliation exposing Lommy as a wolf. Then we could have up to four people claiming seership...two would be wolves accurately declaring each other wolves. Who would expect that?

Yes, if they reveal then we should definitely do that.

Originally Posted by Agan

The only problem is that I'm not going to be around at the beginning of the day (first I'm sleeping and then at school). But I see what the situation looks like when I come and decide then what to do.

Brinn, are you around early? If yes, could you start the suspicion against Valier?

As to a code phrase... if I need advice whether to come out as a seer or not, I'll ask if anyone wants to supply me with fresh squirrel heads for my footbags as the ones I have are all rotten. Say "yes" if you think yes and "no" if you think no. I'll try to write a bit in-character in all posts so that won't be coming out of the blue. Sounds ok? (And WARNING, I might ask if someone wants to play footbag with me, but then it's just ic nonsense... )

I think I will phrase vague suspicions about Valier and Ka, in a seerish manner but not in a similar manner and so I can always refer back to either of them if I need it.

Originally Posted by Agan

I'm alright if you reveal Ka a non-ordo - even though it will look like you're protecting me when you're killed and your role revealed. Well, double bluff then.

Aye, possible, but it might also point to Ka being a wolf.

Originally Posted by Agan

It was initially the same reason why I think Nog is a gifted - but I'm not sure if Nog finds gifteds or contribution more worthy.

Yes, but when considering Nogrod, I think one must take into account that TM seemed very very ordoish.

Originally Posted by Sally

And I think that Lommie should defend at least one innocent.

No... because it's going to be very difficult to guess who's an ordo because there's just 3 of them.

-Lommy

P.S. I haven't seen Volo today so I haven't been able to ask him anything. I'll be stalking in MSN and waiting for him to come online and if he doesn't show up I can always call him or send him an SMS.

================================================== ==============================
From : Aganzir
To : Brinniel, satansaloser2005, Thinlómien, Valier
Date : 2008-01-23 12:20
Title : Re: Hmmm...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Originally Posted by sally

Again, I'm all up for a Lommie seer, provided that we don't mess up and kill the real ones. And I think that Lommie should defend at least one innocent. Doesn't matter who, but I think if Lommie is revealed as a fake seer the people she dreamed of will probably be under suspicion.

If we can elicit any gifteds by sacrificing Lommy, it's worth it.
Saying someone is ordo would be ok in any other situation, but the time Lommy can keep going as a seer is rather limited, and I think it benefits us more if she can cause some confusion.

Originally Posted by sally

Especially since my next day or two are really busy and so I probably will be quite on the side of non-brain-activity

Anyway, if you just manage, try to post enough content so that you won't draw negative attention because of quietness.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Even though there is a major problem to this. I couldn't expose Valier because if I were a real seer I would only know that she's not an ordo. And there's nothing that would heavily point at her being a wolf so this is a bit difficult... can any of you think of a way to avoid this problem?

I'm talking with Lommy at the moment and we reached this solution:
Lommy and Noggie will probably be fighting all day. Lommy can come out as the seer and say she's dreamed of one non-ordo. That's not Nogrod - since Might was so ordoish and she the gifted, she assumes Nog is a wolf without wasting a dream on him. She's not sure if she will survive to the following day so she asks if people want to know the name of the non-ordo, even with the risk of that being a gifted. If they want, she'll give them Valier (who claims to be a seer also, or some other gifted) and says she'll dream of her again the next night. If they don't, she could appeal to the ranger(s) to protect her.
If Lommy survives, she says Valier is a wolf and Valier says she's a seer (or some other gifted). If Valier will also pose as a seer, I think Menel would be the safest dream (but ordo or non-ordo)?
What do you think about this?

Volo said he tries not to show in the narrations who was killed by whom. Also, he's not going to tell the roles of the night kills in public. So if a guardian kills Lommy the next night, it will hopefully remain disputable whether she was a wolf or a seer.

================================================== ==============================
From : Valier
To : Aganzir, Brinniel, satansaloser2005, Thinlómien
Date : 2008-01-23 12:23
Title : hey
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Ok I just got up and there are 8 messages...lol Ive read them, but I'm afraid not everything has stuck. I will reread them as the day progresses to make sure I'm following our plans. I do like the fake Seer plan. let's feel it out. If Lommy comes out as a Seer and someone else comes out too, disproving Lommy, I will come out as a Seer myself, saying I dreamt of Lommy and she is not an Ordo. besides that Ummmm I think we will just have to wing it today.
Hope we all confuse the hell out of this village!! If I missed anything important in this post that I should do or be aware of please let me know.

================================================== ==============================
From : satansaloser2005
To : Aganzir, Brinniel, Thinlómien, Valier
Date : 2008-01-23 12:26
Title : Re: Hmmm...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Originally Posted by Lommy

Brinn, are you around early? If yes, could you start the suspicion against Valier?

Are we sure we want to go after Val so quickly? Then again, if we don't establish it now, then coming after her later will be obvious.

Originally Posted by Lommie

As to a code phrase... if I need advice whether to come out as a seer or not, I'll ask if anyone wants to supply me with fresh squirrel heads for my footbags as th ones I have are all rotten. Say "yes" if you think yes and "no" if you think no. I'll try to write a bit in-character in all posts so that won't be coming out of the blue. Sounds ok? (And WARNING, I might ask if someone wants to play footbag with me, but then it's just ic nonsense... )

Silly Lommie. Sounds good to me though, as it'll give my sleep-deprived brain a nudge in the right direction if needed.

Originally Posted by Lommie

No... because it's going to be very difficult to guess who's an ordo because there's just 3 of them.

true. I guess I was just thinking that if you dreamt of them one night you'd see them as innocent, not specific gifted. But you wouldn't be able to see both Val and an innocent on the same night anyway so it's definitely not one of my brightest ideas. Oh well. Was worth a shot.

My innocent list for right now, done in a hurry as I need to scurry off. I just kind of eliminated people I thought to be gifteds and went from there. I think McCaber is innocent and didn't vote because he was torn between killing a wolf and killing a gifted. Isabellkya strikes me as an innocent as well, as does Naria. Don't quote me on that though; I looked at the list of still-alive players and whittled it down, so I probably have two people from the same day or something, but meh. It'll do for now.

Right now I'm up for whatever is in the best interest of the group. I'll be of more actual planning skills tomorrow Night after my class ends because I'll have ample time to think and post. Until then my lovely wolvies,

~~Sally~~

p.s. I won't be around til 4hrs after the Day starts, just an fyi. Then tonight I have church but I'll be sure to post in between the two in case you need me.