Werewolf XLII: The meaning of life forever

[Roa_Aoife]

The unfortunate thing, Azaelia, is that this is our only opportunity to help each other out. When the trial day comes, this is the only context each of will have to work with. I've always been a Day 1 advocate, true, but this day 1 is much more important than usual. We won't have any other context for our opponents actions when the trials start. Unless you want a day 1 repeat with little to no evidence when it comes, and you're one of three lynch candidates along with a wolf, we need to get down to business today.

Also, Thin and I wre not suggesting that loudness or quietness be the deciding factor in whom to lynch (although it does tend to end up that way). Thin was saying we should focus on the people who are quiet now because wolves could be hiding among them and they tend to get ignored. I was saying that wolves can just as easily hide among the loud and we shouldn't focus one way or another but be open to all possibilities. Thin, of course, had knowledge that people really HAVE been forgetting the quiet ones, which is always dangerous, but especially today.

I for one, do not look forward to sharing the arena with someone who hasn't posted much or at all toDay, because then I'll have nothing to look at, and no way to gain context on what people are saying.

[Roa_Aoife]

I must be going now. I'll try to log back in before the end tomorrow- my computer acess is a bit limited at the moment- I just moved and I don't have internet set up in my apartment yet. (Hence the call to the cable guy). Right now I'm forced to get to the Post's library to get acess. That said, I'll do my best. I hope something interesting happens while I sleep.

[Meneltarmacil]

Ah, we now have the good old "loud vs. quiet" debate. Trouble is, this is precisely the sort of thing that causes villagers to turn on each other and say "He says we should lynch the quiet ones, so he must be a wolf!" Furthermore, I don't remember that any wolves were actually caught due to being suspiciously quiet or loud. To me, a loud person becomes a loud wolf, and a quiet person becomes a quiet wolf.

Between the two of them, however, I'd say a loud wolf is more dangerous than a quiet wolf due to its ability to affect votes, unless it's an inept loud wolf, in which case it ends up as a Fenris.

[McCaber]

Thank you, Menel. I was getting worried. Just because I don't feel a need to say everything that crosses my mind doesn't mean I'm a wolf.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Roa, thanks for clarifying. I'm glad you did, since now that I see where you stand, I agree. Cheers!

I also think you're right about not wanting to start with a completely blank slate on the trial day. With no frame of reference on someone, it's hard to get anywhere.

Seems the debate isn't much of a debate after all.

For the record, I think the loud wolves are just as dangerous as the quiet ones. The loud ones can attract votes for their cause, but I'm a bit more unnerved by the idea of a wolf flying under the radar so to speak, and just letting the rest of the village lynch each other.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Last post crossed with McCaber. I just felt the need to add on to what I just said, and I know the policy about editing posts in WW threads.

I agree with McCaber somewhat, too. I think it's not a good thing to be too silent, keeping every thought to oneself, but too much talking from one person just serves to muddy the waters and can attract the wrong kind of attention from the direction of the wolves or from that of innocents.

[A Little Green]

A little green man that had just been shoved in cleared his throat, straightened his little green hat, then after pondering on something for a while took it off and stood on it to make himself a dais of sorts. After clearing his throat again, he began a lecture.

"1. My apologies for not turning up sooner. I only decided to join this afternoon and it wasn't until now that I got to post since I had to read the rules, the admin thread, and the game thread itself. And now that I am here, I have nothing to say.

2. Then, some thoughts from what you guys have posted.

2.1.

Originally Posted by Noggins

I might consider voting Legate or Roa toDay on these grounds.

*Diplomacy check: fumble, red alert!*

But I do hope I will find better candidates because both of them would be realassets to us if they are innocents and fighting wars between us as innocents would only play to the hands of the wolves. If we had an actual lynch toDay I'd rather vote for someone not committed to the game though... the loudmouths tend to get caught as the game proggresses as the net of lies they have to weave breaks sooner or later.

*Diplomacy check: not good but getting an inch better*

We need to speak our minds here now and toDay even if it means voicing concerns about people we like to play with.

Is it just my imagination or do I see a contradiction here? When reading the first paragraph of that quote (the thing after the red alert), my first thought was "oh dear, so it's this same old thing, let's vote for the good, fluent, experienced players we personally like to play with". The second statement made me feel slightly better (and slightly less annoyed ).
Overall, I don't quite know what to think about Nogrod. He is taking a leader role, and I am not sure whether I should be alarmed by it or not. Of course, I should lift my famous little green hat (from under my feet, as it happens) for the sake that someone finds so much to say about apparent nonsense. I'm (gut)feeling good about him right now.

2.2.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Brinniel because the way she keeps pushing the unimportance of this day looks like a wolf who doesn't want to risk suspecting her fellows.

Agan, could you clarify your point a little? Why would a wolf do that? The wolves don't know each other yet (if I understood the rules correctly and no big red magic blinded my little green eyes), so why should they be cautious about each other? Of course, if a wolf finds evidence of someone's guilt it's a different question entirely, but I very much doubt that could be achieved on this early a stage.

3.

Originally Posted by Lommy

PS. This systems wants to split my ultralong word, even though it is on one line. Why?

Lommy, well though I have no idea of the reason, it did the same for me with my title. Why on earth, I wonder, when it was no more than 61 letters!"

After his speech, the little green man stepped off his little green hat and put it back on his head, then drew out of his pack a little green apple and started peeling it with a little green chainsaw.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

2.2. Agan, could you clarify your point a little? Why would a wolf do that? The wolves don't know each other yet (if I understood the rules correctly and no big red magic blinded my little green eyes), so why should they be cautious about each other? Of course, if a wolf finds evidence of someone's guilt it's a different question entirely, but I very much doubt that could be achieved on this early a stage.

The wolves don't know who will be their fellows, but surely they don't want to lose any of them (in the trials or later). So the "best" a wolf can do is to try to avoid suspecting people in general - who knows if their suspects really are wolves and lynched because their fellow began suspecting them? Also, it'll be very uncomfortable for a wolf if they suspect other wolves vocally know. What will they do when they learn to know one another? Just change their mind: "I have reconsidered this and am sure that my previous top suspect is actually innocent."

So that's why I think it's a nice tactic for a lone wolf to downplay the importance of this day, and that's why I think everyone should speak and suspect. I don't believe that all wolves are doing that (or that all who do that are wolves), but I can't see it being anything but useful if we discuss as much as possible now. Does it make more sense now?

Originally Posted by Shasta

I suppose that means they'll be in the arena together on the seventh day?

Probably so. And I guess it's safe to say even now that one of them is a wolf.

Originally Posted by Azaelia

I don't think we have enough from anyone yet to form a solid opinion.

And we will never have enough information unless someone is the first one to start the actual playing.

Originally Posted by Valier

Aganzir- not sure I like that already he thinks Roa an Ordo...unwise Roa is very cunning and it is not good to underestimate her so early on.

Sorry, but I don't understand this. Firstly, the wolves don't know one another. Secondly, I didn't even reach a conclusion when I spoke about Roa! I can understand if you say I don't sit right with you, but I just can't understand that reasoning.

Something about the trials: It will not be wise to concentrate only on your group of three then (I hope this is something everybody has realised, but I think it's good to say aloud, just in case). And we can also make this harder for the wolves. They get to know one another only on night 1, and if people don't post about others than their pre-day fellows before that, it'll be too easy for a wolf to say then: "I changed my mind while seeing what he said/did on his pre-day" about a fellow. So if we force them to comment on others before they know their fellows, it'll be less likely that they can change their opinion about them later and get away with it.
I hope I make sense although I'm not too sure about it.

edit: xed since Rikae

[Nogrod]

Go Agan go!

I'm lifting you to join Lommy with my "not suspecting too much right now" -category. You're speaking plain sense and make good points.

I had some bad felings about your first post to be sure but this one made me rethink your position. I know you could pull that kind of trick to be sure but I'd hate to vote for someone who makes such a lot of sense.

Also I'm a bit baffled why people think Zali's suspicious... Maybe I need to take a closer look on her before the Day ends (less than an hour).

And where is Naria? She promised to come back and I'm truly waiting for her to reappear as I tend to fear her almost as much as I fear Kath (who has not popped in either).

And if I have it right Sally hasn't shown her face either, or Gil-Galad...

[Isabellkya]

Saying you're going to vote for non-voters, seems to me, to be a bit on the path of laying ground for future manipulative endeavors, Nogrod. Today is a free vote day, we can do whatever we like with our vote (if we so choose to do so); reading too much into any votes made today, can and will lead only to folly.

Wolves are dangerous regardless of loud/quiet.. a dead wolf is a dead wolf, much more preferable than scratching at the door, readying to maul us. Yet there is a line between naturally quiet, and too quiet. I don't think any of us have the ability to snag thoughts out of others' minds.. so it does help to say words and thoughts. But lynching people based on how vocal they are.. is a bit rubbish.

Sorry.. skimming everything so I can get a post or two in before deadline.. which is just shy of twenty minutes, I think?


X'd with everything after my last post (#69).

[McCaber]

One thing - the reason I thanked Menel in my second post is this: I think a lot, from many different positions. If I said everything that crossed my mind, I would contradict myself twelve times from Tuesday. It probably would be held against me, and it leads to a premature death from either side.

Now, what we've all been waiting for - an analysis of Roa.

1. Introduction. Agrees with Nogrod on the importance of the Day, suspects Lommy, and wants actual content in posts.
2. Responds to Groin. A quote - "It's better to suspect many than to suspect none." Wise.
3. Points out that the wolves don't know each other, suspects Lommy, Ka, and Menel.
4. Both loud and quiet wolves are dangerous.
5. Updates to current tactics.
6. Tries to spark conversation.
7. Wonders why no one is talking
8. Says why Day 0 is important, doesn't want to face quiet people in the arena (heh heh).
9. Leaves for the night.
10. Comes back, defends herself, votes for Menel.
11. Small talk with Nogrod.
12. Starts the day, considers Legate's identity.
13. Analyzes Naria and myself. Suspects me.
14. An explanation and regret about Naria
15. Corrects my name (thank you, by the way. I was about to comment on that.)
16. Says she has to leave.
17. Leaves

There's a lot there to look at. Again, not very suspicious at first glance. She just seems more innocent or gifted than wolf. This would be a much easier choice if Naria gave us more content. As it is, I suspect Naria slightly more, but I would like more from her to look at.

[Aganzir]

For those who will be in the same trial with Lommy...

Not much of what she has said this far has made me suspicious about her. But there's something in her posts that I very much dislike, though I really can't put my finger on it.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Ka has been all the time in character. It really makes her less suspicious to me. A wolf might be more concerned about her appearances. Yet, on the other hand, a wolf might count on that no one minds a little in-charactering at the start of the first day and use it as an excuse for saying nothing constructive...

I can see the sense of the statement - but it feels completely wrong. It feels like Lommy saw someone who was behaving suspiciously and turned it upside down. It resembles the way Legcobbler spoke in the last game. Or a Lommywolf who has seen a suspicious person and wants to defend her, hoping she's her fellow wolf. That's not the only time I get that feeling from her posts when she speaks about someone (eg. Groin in #81).

Originally Posted by Lommy

Roa seems to be acting a bit too harmonically with others to be her normal self - is she a wolf looking for possible allies?

The phrasing. Wrong. That's just wrong.

Her reaction to Azaelia in #81 looked quite genuine, though.

As a conclusion, Lommy bothers me more and more every time I read her posts, but I still can't elaborate it any better. Some fleeting glimpses, and the growing feeling that there's something wrong. Argh.

**

I just can't figure Ka out. She looks sensible, but I have no idea if she's innocent or not.

Anyway, I'll be leaving for a while again. Back before the deadline.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm not quite sure when the deadline is, and I'm going to be at work for the next five hours. I've been asleep and then in class for the past... twelve.

And Aganzir, you'll notice that I did try to change my playing style in the phantom's game, only to be the first wolf kill. Logic dictates that that is apparently a bad idea...

Anyway, I'm full aware that there's not a lot to go on (read: nothing) where I'm concerned, due to RL issues. (I have a lot of those lately....) I believe Volo said that the deadline was at 8:00 PM GMT, which I /think/ translates to 2:00 PM CST, meaning... an hour and a half?

[Aganzir]

About an hour and ten minutes from now, yes.

Don't give up so easily. The first game you behave differently the wolves might well think you're a gifted, but please.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Roa

I wonder, do you think some people got confused and thought they weren't supposed to come till their assigned day?

Now as it stands so far, yes. I almost forgot this morning, then I remembered I was one who voted for the pre-game day...

Hopefully that more people know there was such a thing, maybe we can have some reading of the overall thread and some posting. Or not. Like I said before, it would be nice at least if people came by and read the thread so far. Just so that when their day comes up, they won't end up being in the wrong kind of dark, and end up surprising others with apparent pre-game knowledge. Overall, the latter might make a more interesting game and possibly save it.

Originally Posted by Menel

To me, a loud person becomes a loud wolf, and a quiet person becomes a quiet wolf.

Since even the wolves don't know other wolves, the pre-game day is anyone's gambit and everyone's reference book. Same is true with specials and innocents, etc. So, I guess in a way there is some relief having the ambiguity so that individual styles and plays come forth when players post. Usually these things get lost when the wolves and specials know each other in their roles. There are big challenges with pre-game posts, but they are also in a way helpful at least for giving some material to work with.
We could have a whole bloody mess of ackward silence and fumbly voting if the trial days started off immediately.
This game will take longer now, but at least it will be worth playing.

Speaking of which, this will probably be my last for the night, since a wind storm is coming into my neck of the Pacific and the electricity has already fuzzed out once.



~ Ka

[Brinniel]

Brinn steps in, hair hiding half her face, and lights a cigarette.

"Well, certainly a lot has been said when there's really not much of anything to say."

Brinn takes a drag and lets out a bit of smoke.

"Seriously. While I can see why Nogrod and Lommy want all of us to vote, in the long run it will do little good. Because while a third of us may be wolves and another third gifted, toDay we are all nothing but ordinaries and not even.

"There has been no Night, and there won't be for sometime. So, no opportunity for evil wolf plotting and no opportunity for gifteds to dream, hunt, whatever. The wolves don't even know who their fellow wolves are. The wolves and gifteds are just as lost as any ordinary should be. And we cannot even lynch someone...so you could even say we're lesser than ordinaries.

Since no one knows who each other is and we can't actually lynch anyone, what exactly are we to say? How are we to identify if someone's acting wolfish when the wolves don't know anything more than us ordinaries do? It's something I'm asking out loud because I really don't know. I could throw out suspicions, but I feel it'd be only by chance I would accurately suspect a werewolf. Come Day 1, anything that happened toDay will have no real significance; we'll all be examining what occurred during Days 0.1-0.6.

And yet while everything we say might not matter in the long run, here we are actively discussing. And of course about the same old topics that always seem to be discussed on the first Day: is roleplaying good or bad, whether to suspect the loud or quiet... These sort of discussions keep going around in their own circles and I don't really think it'll get us anywhere. But then again, I suppose it is better for us to discuss the same old things, rather than to not discuss at all..."

Brinn drops her cigarette and puts it out with her foot.

[Thinlómien]

Oh, Brinn, you know, that was not supposed to be said aloud...

Anyway, in my opinion, there is some point to wolf-hunting toDay. Even though the wolves don't know their fellows and no one is in actual danger of lynching and we have no kill to analyse, we can still flush some wolves out (optimistically speaking). The wolves know they are guilty, and it will affect their behaviour, more or less. Just see.

I'm slightly troubled, though. I know it's only relatively early day1 and a special one, but still it is quite alarming that there has been remarkably little suspicion expressed. Unlike McCaber and Azaelia, I feel that innocents (and wolves ) do a great favour to the village by expressing as much of their thoughts as they can and as openly as it is possible (disincluding, of course, gifted speculation etc), because that allows the other villagers to see to their mind and how they're thinking and thus allows them to judge their behaviour and find the wolves.

Speaking of suspicions, Brinn, Valier and Zali seem a bit odd to me. However, I'm well aware of the fact that my intuitive suspicion of them might be based on the fact that I disagree with some things they've said. Valier and Brinn both seem to be downplaying the importance of this Day, and thus playing to the hands (or should I say paws?) of the wolves. Which is why I wouldn't be surprised at all if they turned out to be wolves or cobblers - even though I'm afraid my suspicion of them isn't very high based on such little evidence. Zali, then, she just seems wrong to me, as a gut-feeling, there is something fishy in her very manner. It seems she mostly repeats what others have said and that kind of behaviour always makes me suspicious. But, in order to add some so called "Lommy-flipflopping", I must say I think I always suspect her, whether she's innocent or guilty... (last time, mind you, she was actually guilty)

Roa seems to be acting a bit too harmonically with others to be her normal self - is she a wolf looking for possible allies?

Originally Posted by Menel

Ah, we now have the good old "loud vs. quiet" debate. Trouble is, this is precisely the sort of thing that causes villagers to turn on each other and say "He says we should lynch the quiet ones, so he must be a wolf!" Furthermore, I don't remember that any wolves were actually caught due to being suspiciously quiet or loud. To me, a loud person becomes a loud wolf, and a quiet person becomes a quiet wolf.

What? If you ask me, no one was actually starting the traditional loud vs quiet debate (merely discussing loudness and quietness toDay) before you brought it up by that comment. I'm glad no one has taken the bait. And I hardly see it as fair to pop up just to criticise others' discussion while adding hardly anything of importance. Oh, I see my orcish manners popped up again. I didn't mean to be that edgy or offensive (if my comment seems such). And even though I criticise Menel's behaviour, I don't think it necessarily makes him suspicious (his behaviour, not my criticism, that is).

Originally Posted by Roa

Thin, our village of 12 (not 14), will have equal odds of a high number of specials, so it's not all bad. And should we do well today, we can certainly aid our fellow innocents in their battles and really hurt the enemies' odds.

I agree with your matemathics (thanks for correcting me) but not with your optimism. I think we are in a really tough situation and quite probably the odds are against us when the actual normal game begins. But let's not lose hope! I just want to say (in case I don't make it to the finals and won't be able to say it there), that the finals won't probably be a place for lazing, but really tough job.

Originally Posted by Roa

Also you put a space between the b and a in Barrow, so that's why it wants to split it.

Really, that comment made me laugh so much. But I swear, I didn't.

[Brinniel]

I should mention that I for the most part do find Day 1 to be a very useful, sometimes even critical Day. But in this case, toDay seems fairly useless. Maybe it seems useful to some now...after all, toDay is all we have. But will you really use toDay as the basis for your suspicions later on? I don't think there'll be enough clues for anyone to do that. Since everyone is safe for now, the werewolves will do whatever they want; some may be careful, and some may act outrageously. Some may try to do everything to manipulate us and some may keep under the radar doing whatever possible to remain unnoticed.There's not any way to tell what behaviour is wolfish at this time. Because the wolves don't know each other and every one of them will have their own individual strategy.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I know it's only relatively early day1 and a special one, but still it is quite alarming that there has been remarkably little suspicion expressed.

Well, I'm not surprised at all. For obvious reasons, of course...

Okay, maybe I'm just being the pessimist here...that's my job. And when I wrote my statement, I figured there would be some who strongly disagree, but that doesn't matter because call it suspicious or not, this is what I think. But go ahead, prove me wrong. After all, isn't that part of the game?

Anyways in all technicalities, this isn't Day 1 at all. So in all arguments, Day 1 could still very well remain a critical Day when it does come around..

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I don't think there'll be enough clues for anyone to do that. Since everyone is safe for now, the werewolves will do whatever they want; some may be careful, and some may act outrageously. Some may try to do everything to manipulate us and some may keep under the radar doing whatever possible to remain unnoticed. There's not any way to tell what behaviour is wolfish at this time. Because the wolves don't know each other and every one of them will have their own individual strategy.

I still disagree. Many people - not only just new players - alter their strategy of playing when they're evil, either consciously or subconsciously (like in my case). And I'd like to point out, again, that the mere fact that one knows s/he is guilty is enough to leave tracks for a careful reader. Finding wolvish clues toDay might be difficult, but it's possible, and not even that difficult.
And you asked who will base their future decisions on toDay... I will, for one. Not of course entirely, probably to a far lesser extent than what happens on my trial Day, but I will consider it nevertheless.

Anyone who refuses to talk or suspect because s/he thinks toDay is worthless seems suspicious to me. After all, innocent people are not harmed by any extra evidence, accusations and analysis, whereas the wolves are.

[Aganzir]

Due to the half-deleted narration, Aganzir has no idea what's happening. She spurs her horse forward and stops only in front of Nogrod.

"A little bit more courtesy when speaking about my Lord Sauron, please!" she says disdainfully to the dwarf, tapping her nails on the saddle so that the ring in her finger can be clearly seen. "I know you are just envious he chose me, but that isn't an excuse for such behaviour, and if need be I will meet you in the arena." Aganzir glances also Valier quickly and starts then riding around the room, observing the other warriors.

"And unlike you ugly orc there, I can see reasons not to vote - but no such reasons are there for innocents. The only ones who benefit from not voting are those mongrels who have undeservingly connected themselves to my Lord and swear on his name. By saying "it doesn't matter whether or not we vote as no one's lynched anyway", they are playing it safe. So as not to suspect any of their future fellows accidentally (and maybe thus contribute to them being killed in their trials), I wonder."

"Coat room you say, McCaber? Did they give you a nice-coloured wolf's coat?"

"What's strange about that Legate throwing suspicions around, Groin? I say it's a good thing, but I just hope he didn't roll dice to decide whom to suspect because that constant rolling noise hurts my ears."

"I agree with Roa about people who do nothing but post in character. I almost want to lynch them just that there wouldn't be so much to read. (And as for me, I will stop this after this very post.)"

"Brinniel, also I will use today as a basis for my suspicions later. Or, rather, I'm looking forward to see changes in behaviour when the wolves are revealed their mates. And that's why it's important that everybody speaks and suspects as much as possible today."

Aganzir pulls her horse to a stop. "At the moment Roa is the only whom I consider innocent, but I guess I have heard enough about her so that the feeling is as good as nothing."

She takes a look at her notes, then lets the piece of paper fall to the floor and rides away for a while.

Wolf:
Lommy because she strikes me as wolfish.
Nogrod - the way he says some things is weird in a way that resembles a Nogwolf.
Menel. Instead of using his only post in discussing the quiet/loud issue, he could have said something.
Azaelia because she doesn't really say anything. Agrees with someone, discusses (IMO) irrelevant matters such as quiet/loud wolves, and doesn't express any suspicion.
Brinniel because the way she keeps pushing the unimportance of this day looks like a wolf who doesn't want to risk suspecting her fellows.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I have to confess I read only up to some #36 and only skimmed through the rest, so I am speaking mainly to the things before #36. I don't have time now and will be back only very late about two hours before DL. But a few thoughts from me.

I don't like the "loud players may manipulate the village" and all the other cliché "loud-quiet" debates, one would presume this can be laid aside when we have such a special day as this one! *Intimidate check* Now I could say that all who try to make fruitless debate like this are wolves. And I don't know whether Menel is just so pessimistic or so wolf (or Cobbler, or how is that called here).

Oh, and I think you did not say that clearly enough, Nog (because evidently still people think so), but you are right!!! I also thought it strange Volo told us not to reveal our days, when he revealed them himself...
What Volo posted is an EXAMPLE, so this is NOT how the Days are ordered, nor how the three-people combinations look! (possibly) So we DON'T know with whom we are having the trial! Oh, my!!!

Hm, so looks I'm running out of time. There is nothing much I can add, hopefully in the evening. Later.

And P.S. Roa, but lots of these are Ranger skills as well!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Oh, and one more thing. I caught this by the corner of my eye in Brinn's post, which I did not read whole, but I saw that also before in, I believe, Menel's or someone else's post - I say we SHOULD vote. All of us. If we do so, we make a clear statement and as the Wolves don't know what their mates are, they will later have to do something with the fact that they suspected their friends (they can continue suspecting them, but they will most probably back away from voting them, or be very careful with it. And other reactions, you name it).

So that's it, leaving for now... sorry I could not speak more and reply in particular to your posts No time. Later...

EDIT: Writing in a hurry, maybe I don't make that much sense. *points up* What I meant by the first sentence was that Brinn and Menel, or whoever it was, said it makes no sense to vote. My reaction is that only for the wolves it's tactically better not to vote today.