WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Aganzir]

Day 1
Isabell agrees with Nerwen that as the wolves are able to communicate also on days, it's easier for them to influence the lynch. Thinks it would be too obvious if Shasta's "Does this mean I'm a wolf thanking Nerwen for mentioning something that can help me out?" was wolfish. His posts don't contain much substance, though, but she doesn't suspect him yet.

Nerwen bothers her, though just a little- especially when she said she could be convinced to vote someone (and among these someones were two wolves).
I don't really know what to make of that comment of Izzie's. If Nerwen had been innocent, it'd be easy to say "Yea, Izzie is attacking someone who suspected her fellows"... But I don't know. Really, everyone can be convinced to vote a particular way. That's what we're doing all the time, that's what I'm trying to do now, unless someone convinces me that someone other than Isabell is in need of immediate lynching. It's just something that isn't said aloud too often, and a nice reason for a wolf to suspect someone.

Nogrod is his usual self (note: not innocent or guilty, just his usual self. The way to mention a player without really mentioning him), and Macalaure's insistance on him is worrying. Valier is suspicious and non-committal. Votes Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Isabell

Boromir is asserting his 'us-ness' a bit too strongly. I can't recall if this is usual style of word choice or not. It is another one of those shallower bluffing tools which are always obvious.

Could you explain what you meant with this? Which is a shallow bluffing tool, saying us (like Nogwolf) or suspecting someone because of saying it?

Day 2
Shasta was an odd choice for the wolves. Eomer's vote (for Nerwen) and comment aren't that worrying, except the phrasing of the first sentence (Not happy about Nogrod being lynched.)
She thinks Mac is probably not a wolf as he was the first one to vote Nog and it'd be risky the place the first (safe) vote for a fellow. Spm was the second to vote Nog, so he isn't probably a wolf either. Is worried by the timing of my vote, although the whole vote is confusing if wolfish. Legate's vote jumps her the most. Some of Nerwen's posts have been just odd.
Tries to decide whether to vote Nerwen, Legate or me (because my reasons to vote either Nogrod and Shasta were weak and allusive and I threatened Shasta).
Votes Nerwen.

Day 3
Votes Nerwen. Thinks she's too flimsy against morm.

Originally Posted by Izzie

I haven't much liked this whole 'convince me to vote how you want attitude'.. it reeks of innocent.. yet this is why I don't like it. Innocents aren't typically this obvious and blunt about how they can be manipulated by the wolves.

"This thing is innocentish and it makes me think you are a wolf. You must be a wolf because you want to behave like an innocent."
I don't like Izzie's reasoning there. And innocents can be manipulated by other innocents as well.

Day 4
I stick out in her mind, mainly because I was vocally against lynching Nerwen, but it may be a bit too obvious. Doesn't say anything about Farael vs. wolves argument until a few minutes before the deadline when she says she's inclined to believe Farael because it would be so risky for a wolf to claim to be the seer. However, she doesn't like Farael and Boro's aggressiveness. Votes Mac although doesn't like the thought of sacrificing someone in order to find who's lying.

Day 5
Votes Rikae.

Originally Posted by Izzie

The tactics of the wolves during the night are pretty straight forward; they killed the Ranger so they could make a clean kill of the Seer toNight.

But Boro had assumedly protected Farael the previous Night so that if the wolves had attacked him also then, their way should have been clear that Night. And everybody thought it was Farael indeed who had been attacked then, so how come you're so quickly coming forward telling the wolves couldn't be sure if they could kill Farael? Only wolves know whom they attacked and if their pick was protected.

Day 6
Asks if the game ends when we lynch the last wolf.
Votes me because the reasoning behind my vote for her was rather weak, and reminds everyone how she had been going after Nerwen.

Day 7
Speculates something about how many wolves there are left and says it's almost worrying Legate hasn't been killed.

**

I find her arguments against Nerwen mostly genuine - there's very little that reminds me of Mac and Nog. But it makes me wonder if there truly were two teams or something alike, because I'm not quite ready to consider her innocent either... Or then she just did her work well.

Isabell has been mostly sensible with her suspicions, but still somewhat ignorant all the time.
But what strikes me most is this change in her behaviour on Day 4. What was Day 4? The day Farael gave us the names of two wolves. The day after the cursed was turned? And on Day 5 also Rikae was lynched, and after that Isabell has been talking very little. A wolf afraid she'll slip? Just trying to avoid being noticed? Could it be possible that Isabell was the cursed? I have no idea though why the wolves would have wanted to attack her in a situation when there were people whose deaths would have been more useful to them.

Or has Isabell been a wolf all the time? As the wolves have seemingly been suspecting each other, her continuous attack against Nerwen isn't an indicator of innocence. And her behaviour has changed recently because she is the last wolf alive? To me this sounds quite believable.

edit: xed with Kath

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What surprises me more is that the wolf decided to kill Eomer instead of Saucie or morm, who both are quite proven innocents.

I would think it much of a muchness for the Wolf. Eomer had attracted very little suspicion all game, and the Wolf probably thought that there was as much chance of getting him lynched as there was either morm or I. Which puts both morm and I in danger toNight, assuming that (if Legate is not the one doing the killing) the Wolf decides again to leave him alive.

Originally Posted by Kath

I do have this horrible fear that all wolves/evil beings are actually dead and we're just lynching each other for the sport of our dear mod. It seems unlikely, but then both he and Fea played in ATM where that exact thing happened so I can't help thinking it!

If that's the case, then there is little that we can do about it. I think it more likely, if all the Wolves are dead, that there remains one (or more) secret role who can win by surviving on their own.

Originally Posted by Kath

... which leaves me with Izzy, whom Sauce was very keen to lynch yesterDay. Can I ask why?

I thought that I had made that clear. I was content to lynch either The Might or Isabellkya, since I felt that I was least likely to get any read on them out of those left. Both had been quiet, which could be indicative of a last Wolf trying to lay low, but I thought The Might less likely to be a Wolf because his apparent refusal to share his thoughts was just drawing attention to him. Isabellkya was being more subtle about laying low, and my preference was therefore to lynch her. It still is.

And Aganzir's analysis doesn't make me feel any better about Izzie. I hadn't noticed the change in her behaviour on Day 4 as I thought that she had been quite quiet throughout. But she was more involved than I had remembered her being before Day 4.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Or has Isabell been a wolf all the time? As the wolves have seemingly been suspecting each other, her continuous attack against Nerwen isn't an indicator of innocence. And her behaviour has changed recently because she is the last wolf alive? To me this sounds quite believable.

I still think that the last Wolf is the Cursed, because of the timing of Farael's dream of Rikae. But I agree. She looks bad either way.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by morm

I'm of the opinion that the game will end when the final wolf is dead and accordingly I don't think that The Might was a wolf.

My personal reasoning comes from the other end: I don't think TM was a wolf, and it is probable that when we lynch the wolf, it will all end; however, that cannot be said for sure. But, at least technically it now does not have any value for us, the game simple keeps going on and we will see for ourselves when it ends. Of course, if the last person is not a wolf, it will be hard to lynch that person based on the behavior earlier in the game (at least towards the wolves).

Originally Posted by isabellkya

Why Legate was not killed during the night is almost a bit worrying. Surely whoever is responsible for the nightly killings, would not want a 'proven innocent' to try and lead the rest of the village. Yet it could be just another tactic for the killer(s) to insure some kind of confusion and diversion.

Originally Posted by SpM

First possibility: The remaining Wolf wanted to put some pressure on him by leaving a question mark over him. But, since we know from Farael’s last dream that Legate is not a Wolf, he is unlikely to attract votes (and therefore take potential votes away from the Wolf) if we assume that we are still hunting for a Wolf, so the motive here would presumably have been to maintain confusion in the village.

Originally Posted by kath

Where's the harm in leaving a known innocent alive if he's not going to be followed anyway?

Yup, I find it most likely that given the rumours surrounding my person the remaining Wolf left me alive with the hope to create confusion, certainly I cannot make as much of my known innocence, and eventually it could be even that there was hope to get me for lynch. So, it looks explainable why I was not killed, and concerning why Eomer was killed, it seems that there is no more to gather than what was already said - either to bring confusion or to point to the two other male players who remained (apart from me) or to the three female players he mentioned - that means, to everyone.

Originally Posted by morm

Interesting that the narration didn't include the voice or fog. What to make of that?

I would not go that far into conclusions, could be Fea simply did not have enough time to put them in there or it just did not go well with the rest of the narrative. They already spoke in the evening, so maybe that was considered to be enough for us.

Originally Posted by kath

I do have this horrible fear that all wolves/evil beings are actually dead and we're just lynching each other for the sport of our dear mod.

Wait, and was that really just keeping lynching each other, last man standing, or was there some sinister figure behind that who was supposed to survive?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Kath

(I've been having trouble keeping up with the Seer dreams, if anyone feels like providing a list I'd love them)

Sorry, missed this earlier. If I recall correctly, they went like this:

Night 1: Morm or me
Night 2: Morm or me
Night 3: Mac
Night 4: Rikae
Night 5: Legate

The Cursed was Wolverised on Night 4, if the explanation of that Night's events is to be believed. On that basis, Legate can be neither one of the original Wolves nor the Cursed.

Originally Posted by Legate

Wait, and was that really just keeping lynching each other, last man standing, or was there some sinister figure behind that who was supposed to survive?

Nope. Just innocents lynching each other ...

My vote toDay will probably be either for Kath or for Isabellkya. I would like to hear more from both of them.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Nope. Just innocents lynching each other ...

Well, it's rather "" than ": D"

Anyway, I must say my thinking of Aganzir is in a state of crisis. You know what they say? I don't know if that proverb exists in English, but it is "a repeated drop of rain can break even a stone". It indeed seems less and less probable that a wolf would act like she does. For example, leaving me alive. On the other hand, she was succesful in convincing the village not to trust me much - so maybe it did not play such a big role anymore? And if I could be lynched, the better. I am very reluctant to give up my suspicion against her - it does not seem that I would get much support. However, if I do not vote her then, my choices for voting are not that simple. Neither morm, nor Isabellkya, despite the points Aganzir raises against her, look suspicious enough to me. SpM is looking better and more reasonable lately, while Kath would be a 50-50 choice. And that's it (brr! Just six of us - now that is indeed scary). So actually maybe not, Aganzir still seems to be the best option to me. I will think and look at other possibilities yet, but if I don't find anything better, then I'll probably stay with my vote against her.