WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Farael]

A bit of advice... it's pointless to read much into what Rikae says... everything could be a doubletripleoctuple bluff so might as well ignore her.

[The Saucepan Man]

Ahem! Beg pardon, Farael. Let me make amends.

++Rikae

I'm not sure how helpful it is, but here is yesterDay's voting record:

Rikae: ++Farael (Farael 1)
Mac: ++Farael (Farael 2)
Boro: ++Rikae (Farael 2, Rikae 1)
Aganzir: ++Mac (Farael 2, Rikae 1, Mac 1)
Eomer: ++Mac (Farael 2, Rikae 1, Mac 2)
SpM: ++Farael (Farael 3, Rikae 1, Mac 2)
The Might: ++Mac (Farael 3, Rikae 1, Mac 3)
Morm: ++Farael (Farael 4, Rikae 1, Mac 3)
Kath: ++Mac (Farael 4, Rikae 1, Mac 4)
Boro: --Rikae (Farael 4, Mac 4)
Morm: --Farael, ++Mac (Farael 3, Mac 5)
Farael: ++Mac (Farael 3, Mac 6)
Legate: ++Farael (Farael 4, Mac 6)
Boro: ++Mac (Farael 4, Mac 7)
Isabellkya: ++Mac (Farael 4, Mac 8)

So far, we have caught the following Wolves:

Nogrod
Nerwen
Mac
Rikae

We know (I think) that the Cursed was turned on Night 3.

Obviousy, Nogrod cannot have been the Cursed and neither can Mac, since Boro chose to protect him on Night 3. I don’t believe that Nerwen was the Cursed, since she acted pretty consistently (and was suspected pretty consistently for it) from the off. It is possible that Rikae too was a Wolf from the start, given Nog’s funny vote for her on Day 1. However, I also find it quite plausible that Rikae was the Cursed. Given her claimed ability to spot a Wolfish Mac, I can well imagine him choosing to hunt her.

This, I think, might be a good issue to discuss toDay as, depending on whether we have an original Wolf or an ex-Cursed left on our hands after toDay, our search will have a different focus. Farael makes the point well above.

My current thoughts are as follows:

Legate: Known innocent. Possible Cobbler, but doubtful I think.

Mormegil: If Morm is a Wolf, then he is the ex-Cursed. On Day 3, he made a strong case against, and voted for, Nerwen, which speaks in his favour. I don‘t like the way his votes went yesterDay, however. Perhaps his first instinct was to try to save his packmate, but he thought better of it when he saw the writing on the wall.

Aganzir: With Legate cleared, if there was a second Wolfish vote for Nogrod on Day 1, it must have been Aganzir’s. She then accused, and consistently voted for, Mac. Given all the Wolf-on-Wolf votes there have been, how likely is it that these were too? That said, her Day 2 vote for him was a pretty safe one for a ‘Wolf-on-Wolf’, she had little leeway on Day 3, and pretty much no option yesterDay. I am therefore not at all sure that her voting record clears her, and I don’t like the way that she came in toDay with such a strong case against Legate. I share others’ disquiet about her. Rikae’s vote for her could go either way, so I regard it as pretty meaningless.

Eomer: The way that he voted for Nerwen consistently until Day 3, the Day that she was lynched, might suggest that he was the Cursed one. Like morm, I don’t like the way that he was acting so nonchalantly yesterDay. It's conceivable that he is a Wolf.

Isabellkya: She consistently voted for Nerwen, a Wolf in danger throughout her career in this village, which speaks in her favour. However, she voted last for Mac yesterDay, at a time when his fate was pretty much sealed. It was a convenient time for the last Wolf to make sure that she was on the ‘right’ bandwaggon.

Kath: Like Isabellkya, she consistently voted for Nerwen and her vote for Mac yesterDay came at quite a pivotal moment. Of all the unknowns, I see her as the least Wolfish.

The Might: He is the only unknown never to have voted for a known Wolf before yesterDay, and I still don’t like those ‘throwaway’ votes for Eomer. However, his vote for Mac did come at a fairly pivotal time.

So, at present, I would rate Aganzir as the most suspicious and (Legate aside) Kath as the least. The others fall in between.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Ahem! Beg pardon, Farael. Let me make amends.

++Rikae

You say that as though there was a choice. You know, your vote of yesterDay was quite wolfish indeed, SPaM...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

However, I also find it quite plausible that Rikae was the Cursed. Given her claimed ability to spot a Wolfish Mac, I can well imagine him choosing to hunt her.

I truly can always spot a wolfish Mac, indeed I can, for I am very clever. Mac is very clever, too- cleverer than you know.

Farael, m'dear - surely you realise that when you are still alive tomorrow, the village will start to wonder...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Farael

A bit of advice... it's pointless to read much into what Rikae says... everything could be a doubletripleoctuple bluff so might as well ignore her.

The question is, am I the sort of man who would put the poison into my own cup, or my enemy's?

Nothing is meaningless, and I don't intend to lie from this point on.

"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose..."

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Rikae

The question is, am I the sort of man who would put the poison into my own cup, or my enemy's?

Nothing is meaningless, and I don't intend to lie from this point on.

"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose..."

You're a guy?

Now looking at yesterday's voting record, there are two things that come to my attention.

I had four votes, two by Mac and Rikae which don't tell us much. Then we have Legate with some EXTREMELY flawed logic... but proven an ordo

and SPM

Now, he votes for me at quite a pivotal time, as it put me in the lead. Perhaps he was hoping that some innocents would see the tally, notice that I'm in the lead and decide to vote for me?

He has an awful lot of explaining to do over that vote.

Conversely, The Might voted Mac to get a tie with me (which puts him on the lead as he was the "last one" to get there). If he was a wolf, why act so quick to kill one of their own? he could've stayed put and gauged the village's reaction to SPM's vote.

Of course, they can't both be wolves (simple math, there's only one unknown wolf left). If I had to choose one of the pair, I'd say SPM's vote looks AWFUL.

I don't think right now that SPM should be a top suspect this day, but looking at the voting record, his vote for me looks pretty bad.

Either way, i'll find out this night what SPM may be... it's a throwaway dream, but it's not like I'd be able to share it with y'all

Also, why does everyone keep on pushing the idea of a cobbler?

And before I forget

++SPM

Oh, yeah... right.

--SPM
++Rikae

Disclaimer: No, I am not leaving seer hints about SPM with that vote, just keeping and old vendetta alive

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Farael

You're a guy?

Last I checked, no - but why twist the quote more than needed?

Originally Posted by Farael

Either way, i'll find out this night what SPM may be... it's a throwaway dream, but it's not like I'd be able to share it with y'all

If I were you, Farael, and you were the seer, I wouldn't do that. Take it from me - knowing something the villiage doesn't after you're dead is incredibly frustrating!

Originally Posted by [B

Farael[/B]]
Also, why does everyone keep on pushing the idea of a cobbler?

Because there is a cobbler. I can promise you that!

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by SpM

He has an awful lot of explaining to do over that vote.

I have no explaining to do over that vote, as I explained it when I cast it. I voted for who seemed least credible to me at the time. I was wrong.

Give it up, Rikae. no one's going to be listening to you.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I have no explaining to do over that vote, as I explained it when I cast it. I voted for who seemed least credible to me at the time. I was wrong.

Give it up, Rikae. no one's going to be listening to you.

Talking to the known baddie, are we, SPaM? Tsk tsk. That could get you in trouble, by and by.

And why should I stop? I'm having too much fun.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by morm

Plus, knowing that Legate is innocent makes me wonder why Agan came out so quickly with such a lengthy post today about him. It seems she is trying to get everybody on board quickly so as to divert all eyes from her.

Because I wasn't sure if I manage to post later and suspect Legate. That simple.

Originally Posted by Farael

Why talk about some far-fetched twist when it's obvious the wolves got rid of the Ranger so they could get to me without risking a ranger save if Boro had bluffed yesterDay about protecting me the night before?

I skimmed the narration and was puzzled by this

"It is not right that you have interfered thus. Such things are not to be done in these villages. You have twisted the rules."

"You, of all beings, should not speak so on the matter of twisting," answered the fog.

Farael, if you dream of a player with a twist, will you know it? I just can't believe Legate is an ordo.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Farael, if you dream of a player with a twist, will you know it? I just can't believe Legate is an ordo.

Grasping for straws here? the "bad" fog twisted the rules by killing the Ranger which is not allowed as they should not actively interfere

The "good" fog did the "twist" which methinks is a pair of lovers among the wolves.

I could be wrong, but I'm sure not liking your logic here.

Worst case scenario, Legate is a cobbler-like figure... doesn't matter, as long as he's not a werewolf (and I would've seen him thus if he were) he counts as an ordo and should NOT be lynched. Simple as that

You are digging your own grave!!

[The Saucepan Man]

I suppose that it's understandable that it has been quite quiet toDay, given that our choice of lynch victim is obvious. Still, it would have been nice to hear a bit more from everyone, particularly as we are most unlikely to have a trusted Farael to bounce ideas off toMorrow. It's a shame that more have not ventured an opinion on whether the last Wolf is an original or the Cursed since, outlining our thoughts in this regard could well help us to find him or her.

Some thoughts on what has been said toDay.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Because I wasn't sure if I manage to post later and suspect Legate. That simple.

Well, coming up with such a detailed analysis so early on did look rather sinister, but I can see merit in your explanation. My main problem is that you paid scant attention to any other possibility. Rather than considering other possible Wolves, you concentrated on Legate almost exclusively. And, even since Farael revealed him to be no Wolf, you have not really offered any other thoughts, save to suggest that Legate might be a Cobbler. Even if you are right, there is (as both Farael and morm pointed out) little sense in us lynching someone who is not a Wolf, as he numbers among the innocents for the purposes of victory.

Originally Posted by The Might

Well, seems I was right about Mac.

You seem a little too eager there to claim your share of the credit for Mac's demise for my liking, young Might. And you seem rather reluctant to say much else toDay. It helps us little for you to merely sit by the sideline saying that you will look at what happens toDay and think about it toMorrow.

Originally Posted by The Might

I just said that I'm going to have to wait until I take a better look at the others and see what is posted toDay first.

That's all very well for you, but it hardly helps us assess you, does it? Save to draw conclusions as to your possible reason for remaining relatively quiet toDay. Which ain't doing you any favours, to my mind.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Nonchalant? What a non-reason. It worked out, didn't it?

Yes, and neither of the choices available to us yesterDay was ever going to be fatal. But that didn't stop most of us agonising over trying to make the right decision. The wrong one would have been a setback. Your nonchalance could be seen as an attempt to disguise a Wolfish annoyance over the revelation of your fellows.

Originally Posted by Eomer

I must agree with Farael here: Saucepan's reasoning for his vote looks bad. I would have expected such a common-sense and practical player such as he to vote for Macalaure, who was never going to be a Seer, over Farael.

I thought it likely that a Seerish Farael would be killed overNight, as, if Boro was the Ranger, he most probably had saved him the Night before (and the Wolves would have known that). I was, in any event, more focussed on trying to decide which was the Wolf, and I concluded that Farael looked the more Wolfish. Rightly or wrongly, I set a lot of store by the voting record, and Farael's voting record looked a lot worse than Mac's to me.

Given what has happened toDay, the Might is now nudging equal to Aganzir in my suspicions.