WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[The Saucepan Man]

Day 2 votes:

Valier: ++Aganzir (Aganzir 1)
Legate: ++Valier (Aganzir 1, Valier 1)
Boro: ++morm (Aganzir 1, Valier 1, morm 1)
Valier: --Aganzir, ++Nerwen (Valier 1, morm 1, Nerwen 1)
The Might: ++Eomer (Valier 1, morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Nerwen: ++Valier (Valier 2, morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Rikae: ++Valier (Valier 3, morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
SpM: ++Valier (Valier 4, morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Mac: ++morm (Valier 4, morm 2, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Morm: ++Nerwen (Valier 4, morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1)
Aganzir: ++Mac (Valier 4, morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Farael: ++Valier (Valier 5, morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Isabellkya: ++Nerwen (Valier 5, morm 2, Nerwen 3, Eomer 1, Mac 1)
Eomer: ++Nerwen (Valier 5, morm 2, Nerwen 4, Eomer 1, Mac 1)

Did not vote: Kath, Azaelia

Originally Posted by Farael

Hurray for the ranger! If I read the happenings of the night properly, he has defended one of our people successfuly.

That looks to be what happened, and I hope that you are right, but the phanto-mod is a tricksy one, and the Night's events might be interpreted differently. Unlikely, I admit, but we cannot be absolutely certain.

I am afraid to say that I will not be around much toDay, for I have an appointment with my mind's eye to watch a musical enactment of events many years hence on a stage in a strange place called London. I hope, however, to be back before the deadline and I will be around now for a while yet.

[The Saucepan Man]

A few things that I noticed from the back end of yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Mac

You know, Sauce, until now you were the one I considered to look most innocent. And now you put me on the top of your suspect list (even though you voted Valier) based on that - a possibility? You can't be serious...

Yes, indeed, it was a possibility. But, to my mind, there are no probabilities just yet, only possibilities. And it seemed the most likely to me out of a range of possibilities. As I explained at the time, I voted for Valier because I didn't see much prospect of my top suspect (you) being lynched and I wanted my vote to count. Hmm, who else didn't vote for their top suspect? Ah yes, it was you, wasn't it?

Originally Posted by Mac

It's funny that all the people who keep on suspecting me don't dare to put their money where their mouths are.

The way that I am thinking at the moment, I might just take you up on that dare toDay.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Would anyone consider switching to Valier now, in case Kath jumps in and finishes me off?

What are we to make of Nerwen's plea here, just after the deadline? Is it indicative of guilt, innocence, or neither? It sounds genuine to me, but it may well have been a bluff. The problem is, Nerwen has been right there in the thick of things in both Day's voting. I think that it was morm who said yesterDay that Nerwen's death might help to make things clearer. It may sound callous, but that is even more the case now, whether she be Wolfish or not.

[Boromir88]

I say we lynch either morm or Isabell today...either one I'd be happy with. If it was up to Me, that is, Another choice may prove to be Catastrophic...

[Isabellkya]

Aren't we a little quick to be attempting a bath in blood so soon after our piece of good fortune Boro? Though I caught what you've done.. and it is a bit strange I must say.

[Boromir88]

I just like getting to business Isabell. Now, if you be innocent I'm sure you will put it to good use and I will assure you I won't call for your lynching. If not, that's a different story...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Boro

I say we lynch either morm or Isabell today...either one I'd be happy with.

Care to explain why Boro? I could go either way on both of them, but I have stronger suspects at present.

Originally Posted by Mac

Yes, I was your top suspect before, but at the time you voted, you claimed Valier and I were even.

Actually, as your helpful quote indicates, I said it was a toss up between you. You because you were (are) my top suspect, Valier because she was my second suspect and my vote for her was more likely to count.

Originally Posted by Mac

Also, at the time you voted there were still enough people who were suspicious of me left to vote. Had I really been your top suspect, then a vote for me wouldn't have been in vain. Why are you twisting the facts?

I knew that Aganzir would probably vote for you. But, of those left to vote, it looked to me unlikely that anyone else would. I looked in for the last few minutes up to the deadline and would most likely have switched my vote to you had there been any possibility of lynching you.

I am not twisting the facts. Merely explaining my own thought processes. Why are you so eager to (mis)interpret them? Actually, I should say reinterpret them, as you clearly thought yetserDay that you were top of my suspect list and, on the basis of it, commented on me having voted for Valier instead of you!

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by SPM

As I explained at the time, I voted for Valier because I didn't see much prospect of my top suspect (you) being lynched and I wanted my vote to count. Hmm, who else didn't vote for their top suspect? Ah yes, it was you, wasn't it?

Hang on, that doesn't coincide with what you said before you voted.

Originally Posted by SPM

Currently, it’s a toss up for me between Mac and Valier.

Yes, I was your top suspect before, but at the time you voted, you claimed Valier and I were even. You gave Valier the nod because of her number of votes, but you suspected her the same as me. Also, at the time you voted there were still enough people who were suspicious of me left to vote. Had I really been your top suspect, then a vote for me wouldn't have been in vain. Why are you twisting the facts?

[Macalaure]

A quick look at the votes

Legate for Valier - an early vote which appears rather confused, but ordo-ishly confused.
Boro for morm - innocentish, I would say.
TM for Eomer- again a confused-looking vote, but in his case I'm not so sure whether innocently or not.
Nerwen - there's not really have the best reasoning behind her vote. But it doesn't look as confused as Legate, so the vote doesn't look exactly good.
Rikae for Valier - the vote which got the waggon up and rolling. Third votes for innocents look bad by default, but would Wolf-Rikae put herself into such a situation? Among morm, Nerwen, and Eomer there must've been another innocent to vote for which would have looked less bad. I'm not sure about Rikae. She bears watching.
SpM for Valier - same as above, a Saucepan Wolf could have easily found someone better to vote for. Still worth watching, though.
morm for Nerwen - Valier's innocence makes morm look better, I think. Another vote for Valier, easy to justify, would have saved him (4-2 at the time). Of course he'd easily be gutsy enough to risk it and not get his hands dirty.
Aganzir for Mac - yes, she goes along with her suspicion, but what she ultimately does is to throw her vote away.
Farael for Valier - if morm or Nerwen are wolves, then Farael likely is one, too. Otherwise, it's just a safe vote. A little suspicious.
Isabell and Eomer for Nerwen - if we only knew Nerwen's role.

No vote that screams wolf, but a lot that are worthy of watching based on them, I think.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by SPM

Actually, as your helpful quote indicates, I said it was a toss up between you. You because you were (are) my top suspect, Valier because she was my second suspect and my vote for her was more likely to count.

I knew that Aganzir would probably vote for you. But, of those left to vote, it looked to me unlikely that anyone else would. I looked in for the last few minutes up to the deadline and would most likely have switched my vote to you had there been any possibility of lynching you.

I am not twisting the facts. Merely explaining my own thought processes. Why are you so eager to (mis)interpret them? Actually, I should say reinterpret them, as you clearly thought yetserDay that you were top of my suspect list and, on the basis of it, commented on me having voted for Valier instead of you!

I just reread your vote post to make sure I didn't get it wrong, but I don't think I did. It might well be that this was your thought process, but that doesn't get clear to me from your post alone, and that is all I can interpret. As for my comment yesterday, I was wondering why two people who suspected me in a row suddenly put other people at the top of their lists just before they voted. I was also joking a little (note smiley).

[The Saucepan Man]

Actually, troubling though you are to me Mac, I pretty much agree with your list. Except that I would not be too quick to dismiss Legate’s vote as ordo-ish. He was the first to raise suspicion of Valier, based on her lack of reasoning for her accusations (an easy argument for a Wolf to make) and the first to get the ball rolling against her.

Of all the votes cast, the Might’s vote is the most redolent of a ‘throw-away’ vote. I can’t recall many, if any, expressing much strong suspicion of Eomer yesterDay. Aganzir’s vote less so, since Mac had attracted a fair amount of comment and she had made clear her distrust of him. However, as I said, my own feeling was that few would vote for him, so it does have a ‘throw-away’ air about it. One thing I am fairly sure of, though. It is a very unlikely Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Originally Posted by Mac

I just reread your vote post to make sure I didn't get it wrong, but I don't think I did. It might well be that this was your thought process, but that doesn't get clear to me from your post alone, and that is all I can interpret.

Fine, but it seems to me to be a strange basis upon which to go accusing someone of twisting the facts.

[Macalaure]

Alright, Aganzir and Rikae wanted to see my reasons to be suspicious of Aganzir again. Let's get over with it already:


Aganzir

- she suspects each of the people that suspected Nogrod, throwing wolf-on-wolves everywhere - a very smart way make people back away from Noggie without appearing like defending him (126, 131)

- then she decides to give a crucial vote to Nogrod - her top suspect's (me) top suspect. Usually, an innocent wouldn't like to do that, but the wolf-on-wolf comes in handy. About the Shasta-thing, I bought her explanation, so I'm not going to repeat that part.

- recall the voting for Nogrod. Me and Saucepan gave him early votes, Shasta and Legate later retractions. Aganzir's vote was the only one which came during the "general" voting. If there was a wolvish vote for Nogrod, and I'm sure there was, then it was Aganzir's.

That was all I had yesterday. Yes, it's not much, I know. However, we're talking about Aganzir here. As she confidently pointed out herself, she hasn't ever gotten a vote before - but she has been a wolf twice already!

-

because you'd rather I spent my time defending myself than going on suspecting you.
....
Trying to make me use my energy on defending myself rather than suspecting him.

No need to repeat it, everybody heard you. It doesn't make more sense by repetition. But talking of suspecting me, may I in turn ask you what your case against me was made of again?
All I remember is the possibility of Nog and me being wolves and a few far-fetched interpretations.

- her reaction to Isabell is very interesting. She seemed to be rather cool, though determined, about my case. But then she tries to drive away Izzy from suspecting her quite aggressively. It seems to me like she thought she got away from being suspected by more than one person, and was annoyed that there actually turned out to be more.

I would also like to remind everybody that Aganzir was Valier's first hunch of the last day.

Originally Posted by SPM

Fine, but it seems to me to be a strange basis upon which to go accusing someone of twisting the facts.

Maybe twisting the facts was too strong. But the way I saw it, you tried to change the reasoning behind your vote - which is not an unsuspicious vote, after all.

[The Might]

SPM, you must of course also acknowledge that my vote for Eomer came at a very early point as I was unsure that I would be able to go online till the deadline, which as seen I was not.
And I was actually hoping that others might agree, but as seen none did.
So please don't try to twist things as you want them to sound like.

I do feel a bit better about him after reading the last post. It's good that he gave us his thoughts for a change.

I guess we won't find out who was the wolves' target...that would be interesting.

To SPM, I thought that way because Kath defended Shasta after Nerwen's attack. So it kind of figured that if Shasta, who I did suspect at that time was a wolf, so would be Kath.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

What are we to make of Nerwen's plea here, just after the deadline? Is it indicative of guilt, innocence, or neither? It sounds genuine to me, but it may well have been a bluff. The problem is, Nerwen has been right there in the thick of things in both Day's voting. I think that it was morm who said yesterDay that Nerwen's death might help to make things clearer. It may sound callous, but that is even more the case now, whether she be Wolfish or not.

Saucie, the way I took it is genuine too, but genuine for a desperate wolf.

Originally Posted by Boro

I say we lynch either morm or Isabell today...either one I'd be happy with. If it was up to Me, that is, Another choice may prove to be Catastrophic...

I don't remember you bringing up Isabell yesterday...I haven't had a look back though but I think you are on a dangerous course Boromir. You seem to be focusing solely on one person. Of course, that happens to be me which doesn't bother me in that regard but rather it bothers me because you seem unwilling to even entertain the notion that others might be suspicious. I fully believe you are not the seer as if you were you would have dreamt of me and left me alone. As it stands I think you are a crazy innocent on a mission that will prove catastrophic if you continue to persue it because, like I said you are innocent, I believe, too so if you kill me it will increase the suspicion around you and only lead to your ultimate demise.

On that note Boro, I don't feel you've given any real substantive answer as to why you suspect me.