WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

PS: The first one to give out a Mac-Nogrod-wolf-on-wolf-theory backed with at least a little reason wins a prize, all others who come up with it win a prominent place behind Aganzir on my list of suspects.

Okay, now I'm really getting worried about you. That's just creepy.

Originally Posted by Rikae

As for the wolf kill of Shasta, do you think they may have considered his jumpy behavior an indication of giftedness?

Probably. The same things that made him look wolfish would have been interpreted differently by the actual wolves. I suppose we should look through his posts for anything that might have pointed to him as the Seer, though as I recall he mostly just agreed with other people.

Now, about Nogrod– if there was a wolf-on-wolf thing involved, what happened? Did they intend to sacrifice him all along, or was it a strategy that backfired?

I think his teammates could have saved him at the last minute– why didn't they? Deliberate decision, or just a communication breakdown? We do need to allow for this having happened over Christmas.

EDIT: X'd with SpM.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, so what about this Mac-Noggie fratricide theory? It would certainly explain why Nogrod did so little to prevent his demise. But there are a few problems with it. If NoggieWolf and MacWolf agreed to have a little spat to distance themselves, then it got rather out of hand. Surely Mac would have backed off rather than voting for Nogrod as he did and then forcefully pressing for his death. I doubt that they would have agreed for the outset that Noggie should die and be proven a Wolf to make Mac look better. Of course, given that Wolves may converse during the Day, its possible that they hatched the plan ‘on the hoof’ as it were, as the votes against Noggie stacked up.

On the other hand, it’s possible that there is merit in Mac’s theory that, having racked up a fair few votes, Nogrod subsequently hatched a plan with his fellow Wolves that one or more of them would pile in and seek to help themselves by helping him to his death. That would support Mac’s theory about Aganzir, and her sudden switch to pressing for Noggie’s death does look strange, and it might possibly point towards Legate too.

Then there are the last minute votes from Eomer and Boro. It seems pretty clear to me, given the timing, that their votes crossed. Accordingly, it’s doubtful that they are both Wolves, as they would have been able to coordinate their votes to save Nog, if that’s what they wanted to do. But, surely, if one of them if is a Wolf and did make an effort to save Nog, then he would have been able to coordinate a last minute rescue with Nog himself.

Much to ponder toDay. But, since it’s late where I am and I seem to be having one of my intermittent episodes, I shall take my leave for now. Back later toDay, hopefully.

[The Might]

Ok, let me begin by apologizing for not voting yesterday, I got confused about the longer 1st Day and thought the deadline was 10 PM not AM. Anyway, I'll surely vote toDay. Well, Boro somehow seems rather innocent now, as he could have voted for Nerwen, in which case she would have been lynched as the last to get 5 votes. Or is this some strange WW tactic? Actually, Nogrod could have saved himself by -- Rikae and voting for Nerwen. but he didn't, although he was there till the deadline...I believe I am right about this. Does this not seem strange. It is true that Eomer's and Boro's votes also came in the last minute, but shouldn't Nogrod at least have tried to -- Rikae who clearly would not have been lynched and vote Nerwen? Unless of course this was planned...Nogrod taking one for the team as a plan? Crazy, but maybe true...

[Valier]

This really does get confusing when the Wolves can pm each other. They could have orchestrated a whole mess of different plans, It is hard to be sure which if any they decided to use. Now I do think the voting may help us a bit in coming up with some theories as to who may be a wolf. For me the most suspicious looking today are. Mac, Eomer, Aganzir, The Might

Mac because I still have a feeling he may be a cunning wolf. But he is the lowest for now on my list.
Eomer, because his vote placement and way of explaining his vote seemed odd.
Aganzir, for the same reasons SPM and Mac have pointed out. He has seemed a little too planned in his actions.
The Might...Well his last post is odd and gives me a weird feeling.

[The Saucepan Man]

Before I go for the night, I have been pondering this theory of Mac’s about Aganzir, and I‘m not so sure about it. At the time Aganzir voted, Nogrod had 2 votes, Nerwen had 4 and Shasta had 3. So why hatch a plan to kill Nogrod when it was far from likely that he would be the one to die? Although, at that point, Shasta was threatening to switch his vote to Noggie, there was no indication that Legate would vote for him. Surely a Wolfish Aganzir would simply have voted either for Shasta or Nerwen, particularly as she had already expressed suspicion for Shasta, rather than voting for someone she had previously thought of as likely innocent - a risky vote for a Wolf.

Mac, on the other hand, really started pressing for Noggie’s death following Aganzir’s vote and at a time when it looked like Shasta might well switch (as he indeed did). And he also immediately picked up on Noggie’s seemingly contrived reason for voting for Rikae. Now that could certainly have been planned between them. Nogrod, seeing that he might well be lynched, votes for Rikae with poor reasoning and Mac seizes on this to encourage further votes, having voted for him earlier. A MacWolf stood to gain from Noggie’s downfall far more than an AganWolf, surely. He could have switched votes to save Noggie, I suppose, but that would have looked awfully strange, and would therefore have risked spelling the doom of both, rather than just one, of them.

Originally Posted by The Might

Well, Boro somehow seems rather innocent now, as he could have voted for Nerwen, in which case she would have been lynched as the last to get 5 votes.

Unless, of course he and Nerwen are fellow Wolves. Which could explain why Nogrod didn’t vote for her. Although it doesn’t explain why he didn’t vote for Shasta.

Bah! My brain’s fading. Time to go.

[Nerwen]

I hadn't realized how close the voting was at the time of my last post. Indeed, there was nothing to stop Nogrod saving himself by switching his vote to either Shasta or me. (Yes, that's either of us, thankyou, Might.)

So– was his Rikae vote a suicide, or was it arranged for someone to cast another vote for one of the other candidates, and something went wrong? I don't know. Perhaps he simply lost track and didn't realize he could still save himself.

This makes it all the stranger that the wolves killed Shasta. You'd think they'd have every interest in keeping him alive.



OT: I'm sorry to hear you're not well, Saucepan Man.

[Boromir88]

Well, to be honest, I was trying to save Nogrod...as I indicated in my last post voting for Shasta. I never like last second bandwagons, they worry me and usually turn out bad. This one happened to be a pleasant surprise, but in the spur of the moment I figured Nogrod was innocent and didn't like the votes piling up against him.

Now, onto whether Mac and Nogrod conspired a lynching. I highly doubt it. For the moment, I think Mac's sharp instincts were on and he genuinely bagged a wolf in the beginning, it wouldn't be the first time. I would hate to lynch him today when I think there are far more devilish looking people (for example, morm who I was going to vote for yesterday, but doing so would have turned out to be a waste...and today he hasn't done any good for himself by jumping out early and trying to push the Mac-Nogrod thing...or I find those who hardly had any interaction with Nogrod - Isabell, The Might, Valier - far more wolfish looking than those who aggressively went after him yesterday).

Wolves enter into a village with a tremendous advantage, they know who's side everyone is on...we don't. Why would they wish to lessen their numbers right off the start, especially since Day 1 is a "lottery"? I've seen some clever wolves, like Fea and Kuru, throw out jests and jokes in the beginning with eachother, but a wolf sacrificing himself on day 1 from the start? That's something I've never seen. Now, maybe towards the end with the wolves ability to PM Nogrod told his pals he wanted to be lynched...but Mac was onto Nogrod from the very beginning. And I'm thinking Mac, being the instinctive innocent he is, noticed something wasn't right with Nogrod and justly went after him. There are far more wolvish looking things than some crackpot theory that Mac and Nogrod planned this from the beginning.

Let's not forget that yesterday, I believe the possibility that Mac was a wolf was started by Aganzir and there was considerable discussion about it. Is Aganzir a wolf? I don't know, as far as her I'm unsure. I'm simply pointing out that was discussed yesterday and it's possible the wolves would want to come out and try to push that view...which is why I think morm is another wolf.

Also, I'm suspicious of those who had very little interaction with Nogrod yesterday. Granted these individuals didn't post as much as others, but they could be quiet wolves trying to distance themselves. I'm more afraid of them than I am of the slight possibility that Mac and Nogrod planned all that yesterday. Those like Eomer, Isabell, Valier, and The Might...but the one I keep going back to is morm. I find it interesting that Nogrod had morm pegged on his "innocent list" yet I believe that is the only time Nogrod mentioned him, and I don't believe morm had much interaction with Nogrod either. Nogrod both had interactions with Rikae and Legate, but not morm.

edit: crossed with morm

[mormegil]

So in reading over what Macalaure has said about Nogrod is interesting. His sole focus from essentially the first post was Nogrod and Nogrod alone. There is one post in which he considers a few others but it's merely a cursory glance.

Rereading his arguments I find some lucidity in them, which for day 1 is rather surprising. I have been vacillating between him being innocent and guilty and have leaned both ways and frustratingly I'm no nearer to a conclusion. It's irritating too because I am trying to look at others but I really want some finality in my mind. I will continue to give it more thought. In the meantime I notice that SpM has given a response to The Might that is almost identical to what I would give.

Originally Posted by SpM

Unless, of course he and Nerwen are fellow Wolves. Which could explain why Nogrod didn’t vote for her. Although it doesn’t explain why he didn’t vote for Shasta.

It may not have mattered who he voted for at that point. For convinience I'm going to copy the voting list SpM already included.

Boro: ++Kath (Kath 1)
Mac: ++Nogrod (Kath 1, Nogrod 1)
SpM: ++Nogrod (Kath 1, Nogrod 2)
Kath: ++Nerwen (Kath 1, Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1)
Farael: ++Shasta (Kath 1, Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1, Shasta 1)
Boro: --Kath (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1, Shasta 1)
Valier: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 2, Shasta 1)
Rikae: ++Shasta (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 2, Shasta 2)
Shasta: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 2)
Morm: ++Boro (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 2, Boro 1)
Nerwen: ++Shasta (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Isabellkya: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Aganzir: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Nogrod: ++Rikae (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Legate: ++Boro (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 2, Rikae 1)
Shasta: --Nerwen, ++Nogrod (Nogrod 4, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Legate: --Boro, ++Nogrod (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Eomer: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Boro: ++Shasta (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 4, Shasta 4, Boro 1, Rikae 1)

The legate switch vote is interesting as it essentially put away Nogrod and if Nerwen is a wolf it could be argued that Legate is also one and that his vote was to help prove innocence. If Boro or Eomer (not both) is a wolf that could explain why they didn't vote Nogrod but I think I'm off base and geting into unrealistic scenarios...however with that said Eomer and Boromir are perfect candidates to pull off the most unrealistic of scenarios.

Looking at earlier voting, there seems to be a lot of 'safe' votes honestly. It became very clear that there were only 3 legitimate candidates for day 1 and it would be very helpful to know what they were....we do know 2 of the 3 so in that regard the wolves helped us out a bit by killing Shasta. Knowing if Nerwen is a wolf would help tremendously in figuring out the voting pattern.

Speaking of Nerwen she still seems to be a top suspect, which I feel is good as she hasn't sat right with me but I haven't done much independent investigative work on her as I've been focused elsewhere. Honestly, I know this sounds callous, I suggest lynching Nerwen to figure out what she is and I suspect there is a good chance she is a wolf. A lot of questions would be answered. Of course, we shouldn't kill her unless there is sufficient suspicion which I feel there is a good deal of so far. I hope to be able to review her a bit more on my own soon. If I do, it will likely be much later in the day though. Can anybody help me out here?

Although now I'm looking at things a bit differently...Would the wolves, assuming Nerwen is a wolf, have all voted for one of their own? If not, it doesn't make sense to kill Shasta. ARGH! I feel I keep talking myself in circles...I'm really just typing as I think so sorry for my endless ramblings as I sit here and stare at the voting record trying to make some sense of it.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by mormegil

It may not have mattered who he voted for at that point. For convinience I'm going to copy the voting list SpM already included.

But it actually does matter, because in this game it's the last one to reach the total that gets it. So he could have got Shasta or me lynched quite easily, as long as he waited until there was no time left for anyone else to vote.

[Aganzir]

What an exciting feeling. I just received my first WW vote ever.

Is there any chance the wolves thought Shasta was the seer? Vague accusations against Nogrod in his very first post, and he backs off quickly when people ask if it was a joke. Someone mentioned he looked nervous. "And even if he isn't the seer", the wolves thought, "the village will wonder all the day why he was killed."

Originally Posted by Mac

Why does she put so much pressure on Shasta? If this is a campaign to get another vote for Nogrod, then why does she only address him?

I suspected Nogrod more than Shasta. Nerwen looked more innocent than either of them. I had said I'd switch to Shasta if it started to seem Nerwen would be lynched, and reminded Shasta of this. (By the way, it was Shasta, not me, who was the first one to notice you two were so suspicious of each other so early.)
I think you're not over-interpreting, Mac, but deliberately trying to find reasons to think I'm a wolf, and that is because you'd rather I spent my time defending myself than going on suspecting you.

Ok. Another thing. Nogrod's post #164 and Rikae. Why did Noggie start suspecting her then? It could be a last-minute case against a fellow wolf. It could be a last-minute case against an innocent that is supposed to look like a case against a fellow-wolf. A bluff, double-bluff, triple-bluff?
I thought this would be good to bring forward. I don't suspect Rikae at the moment, but it always means something if a wolf makes a case against someone when it's clearly too late to lynch him/her anymore.
For example, maybe the wolf wants us to think it was a case against a fellow so that we lynch a player who is dangerous for the pack...

edit: xed with Legate and Eomer

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

"Nogrod's first post was, strangely, shorter than mine. What does this say about him?

-Nogrod is hiding "off the radar". He's obviously a wolf.
-Nogrod is too busy to pay much attention to this game. A perfect cover for a wolf.
-Nogrod is letting us come to our own conclusions, without exerting too much influence. Waiting for the right moment to make an opportune push... much like a wolf might do.

I think we have our answer here, don't you?

The herbs have made me loopy, the herbs have made me loopy.... "

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I found out I have less time on my hands as I spent too much time writing the post above. No time. I would have needed some more time to sort things out, yet there is none.
Therefore, I vote

++Valier

for what I said above. I really hope I will be able to return before DL, though I cannot say that for sure nor even grant if I'd have time to read things properly even if I return. Good luck.