WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Farael]

Well, let's take a look at the votes yesterDay

Nogrod 5 (Mac, Spm, Aganzir, Shastanis, Legate)
Nerwen 4 (Kath, Valier, Isabellkya, Eomer)
Shasta 4 (Farael, Rikae, Nerwen, Boromir)
Boro 2 (morm, Legate)
Rikae 1 (Nogrod)

There are two I've highlighted, I also underlined the Nogrod voters

Now, with two votes to go and Nogrod having a 5-3 lead over both Nerwen and Shasta, Eomer voted for Nerwen, pulling her up to 4 votes, with Boro still having his vote left.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Not happy about Nogrod being lynched. The way it happened looks odd to me.

Nerwen looks worse to me.

++NERWEN

It is a poorly explained vote, and it is almost admittedly trying to save Nogrod

Then Boromir votes for Shasta at the last moment. This is an interesting move and I'm not sure what he was trying to accomplish by it, but if he meant to save Nogrod he could've by voting for Nerwen (keep in mind that the LAST person to reach a tie is the one lynched)

Finally, I'd like to note that Mac voted first for Nogrod which would have been a safe wolf-on-wolf vote.

So what do I gather from here

Eomer is looking iffy for trying to save a wolf with no clear explanation (however, he does not say "hey, let's save Nogrod" he just says "Nerwen looks worse". If he had wanted to save Nogrod 'cos he felt Nogrod made sense I could've thought Eomer a misguided ordo... but the way he put it I'm not so sure that's the case)

Boromir is looking better, quite simply because if he wanted to save Nogrod he could've.

I'm not sure I'm ready to think that the Nogrod-Mac debate is wolf-on-wolf, but I do note that Mac had a safe vote.

Edit: Fixed a mistake with the voting record

[Valier]

Hmmm I also have given a thought to the Nogrod/Mac thing yesterday. I do admit that it is a little bold for 2 wolves on day one to argue so much, drawing attention to one another, then one gets killed. But I also had the thought....what if they did this on purpose? remember the wolves can pm during the day. Both Nogrod and Mac are bold players and I wouldn't put this bold move past them. Nogrod garnered suspicion so early on and it makes me think they planned it that way hoping us villagers would think that after all that Mac is innocent. Thus letting him slip through our fingers for the rest of the game.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Valier

Hmmm I also have given a thought to the Nogrod/Mac thing yesterday. I do admit that it is a little bold for 2 wolves on day one to argue so much, drawing attention to one another, then one gets killed. But I also had the thought....what if they did this on purpose? remember the wolves can pm during the day. Both Nogrod and Mac are bold players and I wouldn't put this bold move past them. Nogrod garnered suspicion so early on and it makes me think they planned it that way hoping us villagers would think that after all that Mac is innocent. Thus letting him slip through our fingers for the rest of the game.

I wouldn't put it past either Nogwolf nor Mac. However, I'm still not sure about it. If you look at Mac's last post, it looks genuine to me.

Honestly, I'd hate to lynch Mac toDay and find him an ordo... what a payback for the most vocal advocant of lynching Nogwolf.

Also, looking back at Nogrod's posts there's his half-defense of Legate which would seem to implicate him as a wolf... but Legate cast the last vote for Nogrod so that's making him look rather good right now.

Edit: Grammar mistake

[Isabellkya]

I must echo. Shasta as the choice amongst the wolves is quite odd to me. He had been considered an easy lynch to some; and quite a few had voted for him. Which it would be a good thing for the wolves; to have that fodder in front of them. Unless of course their aim was to have us focus on that, rather than other things.

Eomer's vote and comment; don't strike me as that worrying. The sparseness, almost seemed to be a pre-emptive covering of Eomer's own behind, if Nogrod had turned out to be innocent. Yet the phrasing of the first sentence is all wrong to me.


X'd with Farael.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, the count after first Day obviously is not that bad, though it looks more like pure luck than anything else. Nevertheless, a good luck. Now we stand in front of analysing what yesterDay and this Night's kill can tell us.

Originally Posted by mormegil

Shata? An odd choice indeed. Of course, being a suspect with many people it is a good choice for the wolves in that it causes many of us to wonder as I am now.

Obviously. Could there have been some other reason? After all, there was also the chance of getting Shasta lynched still. The wolves could have picked someone else from the "background". Yet, Shasta indeed leaves a few tracks. I guess this would deserve looking through; it is late here now, but I will surely do that soon.

Now:

What you say, Farael, about Eomer's and Boro's votes would make sense. Especially in the latter case, indeed, had Boro been a wolf, he could have saved his packmate with no problem. That makes me indeed feel better about him. Eomer, on the other hand, could have attempted a "savior strike" with hope for someone to retract... the thing is, he really appeared out of nowhere so we don't know whether he was waiting in shadows for the right moments to cast his vote or whether he just came as a simple villager to do his job.

Mac then... looking at his exchanges with Nogrod, I don't necessarily think it was a wolf on wolf debate, yet I am not also ready to drop this possibility from sight. I only skimmed through their yesterDay's posts, I would need more time to look at them deeper. But basically from I saw, I get the feeling of genuine accusations (from Mac at least).

It is terribly late here and I will be back tomorrow (RL, I mean). Till later.

EDIT: x-ed since Farael

[Rikae]

I've never seen a wolf be lynched because of his failure to recognise a christmas song before - and I was just trying to be 'in the holiday spirit', after all!
Now, something strange is going on today, and I think it's probably best to get all my thoughts out in the open here and see if anything can be made of them. Morm starts off by suggesting that Mac's attack on Nogrod was wolf-on-wolf, but makes no mention of anyone else involved in attacking Nogrod - his reasons for focusing on Mac aren't clear.
However, (although I hate to say it) Macalaure's post indeed looks sinister to me. I don't see how his arguments against Aganzir for turning so suddenly and viciously against Nogrod don't apply to Mac himself just as well, for although he opposed Nogrod from the beginning, he had little to back it up at first - it came out of the blue in what was quite possibly a preplanned way. Furthermore, his final "PS" sends chills up my spine. There is the same taunting, gloating quality there I saw Macwolf demonstrate in the last game.
Eomer & Boro's final votes look very different indeed, depending on whether or not they were crossed. I'd like to hear what they have to say about them toDay.
As for the wolf kill of Shasta, do you think they may have considered his jumpy behavior an indication of giftedness?

[The Saucepan Man]

Once again, apologies for my relative inactivity yesterDay, but my grip on events in this village was intermittent throughout the Day. I fear that age may be taking its toll on this world-weary traveller. I am still blacking out every so often, but I shall do what I can.

Hmm, why Shasta indeed? I can’t see any reason why the Wolves might have thought him a gifted and I would have thought that they would want to keep around anyone who had garnered as much suspicion as him. As I said yesterDay, he looked like a typical Day 1 scapegoat, and it seems likely that he would have been in the mix toDay, had he survived the Night. It’s not even as if his death doesn’t leave any trail. While his own accusations were pretty random and his votes more calculated to save his neck from the noose than anything else, he attracted a fair number of votes. Given that he was veering towards being s scapegoat, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there wasn’t at least one Wolf in his bandwaggon.

And as to the voting, like all of us here, I have encountered Werewolves before in my meanderings across Middle-earth, and I always like to look at the voting record in its entirety, including the timing of each vote. So, as is my wont, here it is:

Boro: ++Kath (Kath 1)
Mac: ++Nogrod (Kath 1, Nogrod 1)
SpM: ++Nogrod (Kath 1, Nogrod 2)
Kath: ++Nerwen (Kath 1, Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1)
Farael: ++Shasta (Kath 1, Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1, Shasta 1)
Boro: --Kath (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1, Shasta 1)
Valier: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 2, Shasta 1)
Rikae: ++Shasta (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 2, Shasta 2)
Shasta: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 2)
Morm: ++Boro (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 2, Boro 1)
Nerwen: ++Shasta (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Isabellkya: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Aganzir: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Nogrod: ++Rikae (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Legate: ++Boro (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 2, Rikae 1)
Shasta: --Nerwen, ++Nogrod (Nogrod 4, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Legate: --Boro, ++Nogrod (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Eomer: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Boro: ++Shasta (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 4, Shasta 4, Boro 1, Rikae 1)

Looking at this, I am quite puzzled as to why Nogrod didn’t do more to save himself. Why did he vote for Rikae when she wasn’t likely to be in the running for lynchification? And why didn’t he switch his vote at the last minute to either Shasta or Nerwen? My initial thought was that they too are Wolves and it would have done his pack little good, but Shasta’s proven innocence rather puts paid to that idea.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

PS: The first one to give out a Mac-Nogrod-wolf-on-wolf-theory backed with at least a little reason wins a prize, all others who come up with it win a prominent place behind Aganzir on my list of suspects.

Okay, now I'm really getting worried about you. That's just creepy.

Originally Posted by Rikae

As for the wolf kill of Shasta, do you think they may have considered his jumpy behavior an indication of giftedness?

Probably. The same things that made him look wolfish would have been interpreted differently by the actual wolves. I suppose we should look through his posts for anything that might have pointed to him as the Seer, though as I recall he mostly just agreed with other people.

Now, about Nogrod– if there was a wolf-on-wolf thing involved, what happened? Did they intend to sacrifice him all along, or was it a strategy that backfired?

I think his teammates could have saved him at the last minute– why didn't they? Deliberate decision, or just a communication breakdown? We do need to allow for this having happened over Christmas.

EDIT: X'd with SpM.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, so what about this Mac-Noggie fratricide theory? It would certainly explain why Nogrod did so little to prevent his demise. But there are a few problems with it. If NoggieWolf and MacWolf agreed to have a little spat to distance themselves, then it got rather out of hand. Surely Mac would have backed off rather than voting for Nogrod as he did and then forcefully pressing for his death. I doubt that they would have agreed for the outset that Noggie should die and be proven a Wolf to make Mac look better. Of course, given that Wolves may converse during the Day, its possible that they hatched the plan ‘on the hoof’ as it were, as the votes against Noggie stacked up.

On the other hand, it’s possible that there is merit in Mac’s theory that, having racked up a fair few votes, Nogrod subsequently hatched a plan with his fellow Wolves that one or more of them would pile in and seek to help themselves by helping him to his death. That would support Mac’s theory about Aganzir, and her sudden switch to pressing for Noggie’s death does look strange, and it might possibly point towards Legate too.

Then there are the last minute votes from Eomer and Boro. It seems pretty clear to me, given the timing, that their votes crossed. Accordingly, it’s doubtful that they are both Wolves, as they would have been able to coordinate their votes to save Nog, if that’s what they wanted to do. But, surely, if one of them if is a Wolf and did make an effort to save Nog, then he would have been able to coordinate a last minute rescue with Nog himself.

Much to ponder toDay. But, since it’s late where I am and I seem to be having one of my intermittent episodes, I shall take my leave for now. Back later toDay, hopefully.

[The Might]

Ok, let me begin by apologizing for not voting yesterday, I got confused about the longer 1st Day and thought the deadline was 10 PM not AM. Anyway, I'll surely vote toDay. Well, Boro somehow seems rather innocent now, as he could have voted for Nerwen, in which case she would have been lynched as the last to get 5 votes. Or is this some strange WW tactic? Actually, Nogrod could have saved himself by -- Rikae and voting for Nerwen. but he didn't, although he was there till the deadline...I believe I am right about this. Does this not seem strange. It is true that Eomer's and Boro's votes also came in the last minute, but shouldn't Nogrod at least have tried to -- Rikae who clearly would not have been lynched and vote Nerwen? Unless of course this was planned...Nogrod taking one for the team as a plan? Crazy, but maybe true...