WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Nogrod]

Those twists better help us as otherwise it looks grim indeed. Just look at the villager - wolf -ratio and add to it the cursed one who could be our toughest enemy later in the game... as even the word of the seer can't be trusted 100% in the end.

Originally Posted by Farael

Once it does, however, i'll be able to create a custom-made conspiracy theory for this village.

Ahh, we all can you know. So let's hear some talkin'.

Meanwhile I'm off to hew down a few birches as that's the trade I know...

[Nerwen]

*shakes head sadly* Terrible times, terrible times.

Hmmn. I do think some of us could have chosen more useful careers. I mean hats... hats are very nice and all that, but it's a pity we're the only village in Beleriand with no warriors and no-one to make weapons for them anyway. Perhaps the Tinker and the Carpenter could try their hands at it?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Those twists better help us as otherwise it looks grim indeed. Just look at the villager - wolf -ratio and add to it the cursed one who could be our toughest enemy later in the game... as even the word of the seer can't be trusted 100% in the end.

Ahh, we all can you know. So let's hear some talkin'.

Meanwhile I'm off to hew down a few birches as that's the trade I know...

Hey, come back! Are you saying the Seer could BE the cursed?

EDIT: X'd with Legate, Farael and Nogrod.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hey, come back! Are you saying the Seer could BE the cursed?

I believe he meant the Seer can See an innocent person one Night and the next Night the person is infected and the "known innocent" becomes a werewolf. That is a thing one has to bear in mind, really.

The funny thing is that I guess we are not even going to learn, if there is no Night kill, whether it was luck (Ranger protection) or a big problem for us (somebody turned to a wolf instead of being killed).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Farael

Besides, he said that he did not PM the roles up until he had a full complement of players

Where does he say that, though? I can't find it.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The funny thing is that I guess we are not even going to learn, if there is no Night kill, whether it was luck (Ranger protection) or a big problem for us (somebody turned to a wolf instead of being killed).

Yes, I'd thought of that.

All I can say is this: if there's a "no-kill" Night before we've got any wolves, really watch out for bandwagons the next Day. I mean– if there's five wolves, I should think they could lynch at will.

Edit: X'd with Legate, Farael and Nogrod.

[Valier]

Ok well it's day one....uggg not much to say I guess just yet, seems everyone is discussing the rules of the game. I tend to like to go with the flow, I am sure Phantom has some plans up his sleeve (which by I mean his "twists")

I don't think lingering too long on the semantics of the game will be of much help at this time. I am sure this is going to be a sort of live in the moment game, because you never know when something drastic may happen. I don't see the point of worrying about the cursed villager now, it may never happen, the cursed may do a good job and not get killed. Remember they are just an Ordo to begin with. It is something to keep in mind, but why dwell on it.
Still it does give something to talk about on dull Day ones. I guess taking into effect what people have to say about the "rules" and such and the way they say it could always be useful.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Valier

Still it does give something to talk about on dull Day ones. I guess taking into effect what people have to say about the "rules" and such and the way they say it could always be useful.

I think these unknown twists are making us all jumpy– and as you say, they give us something to talk about.

We can talk about something else, of course:

Such foggy weather we're having! Oh, and how's the basket-weaving going, Valier?

[Macalaure]

Well, well... Day One... not much to say yet. At the moment, only Noggie rubs me slightly the wrong way.

Originally Posted by Nog

Those twists better help us as otherwise it looks grim indeed.

I daresay that some will and some won't. We'll just have to wait and see. There's little point in discussing them now. I know we yet don't have a lot else to talk about, but still.

Anyway, why so pessimistic so early on, Nogrod?

Originally Posted by Nog

I'd say no. That was quite the normal procedure earlier if my memory serves me right. A kind of old-school warm up. But if you have reasons to believe it to be otherwise I'm listening.

You raise my eyebrow there. I don't mean to become too formulaic in my approach to looking for wolves, but this really fits the "passively encouraging the village to discuss nonsense while appearing to be no part of that discussion"-cliché.

(edit: crossed with Rikae)

[mormegil]

I agree with what Farael said about the seer not being the cursed because it was stated that the seer, if he/she dreamt of the cursed they would appear innocent. It definately implies that the seer wouldn't be it but I wouldn't put it past the phantom to do that either. My guess is that the seer is not the cursed but either way there isn't much we can do about it.

Nogrod, I can't figure out why you brought this up though. It seems rather odd. Right now, Farael seems the most, in your face, vocal person which always makes me wonder, but to be fair it seems fairly standard for him and I do tend to be a bit suspicious of him but if I were to pick a suspect now it would be him. Granted, there are MANY we haven't heard from yet so my suspicion is weak at best, but it's helpful to get some suspicion out on the table.

[Aganzir]

First of all, I won't be able to participate as much as I'd like today. Christmas celebration takes place mainly on Christmas Eve here, and there's a bunch of lovely relatives downstairs... And of course they need a hangwoman among them... He-he..

**

Another thing why the seer can be wrong: the twists. We don't know if there's a false seer, a mytho or something. And is the seer told if s/he dreams of a player with a twist?
I won't waste my time speculating what the twists tp spoke of might be, as it's really rather useless, but I thought this would be good for everyone to keep in mind.

As for irrelevant matters, I don't like how Legate tries to divert attention from finding the wolves in his very first post. It wouldn't be that bad, but his request not to discuss too much about the thing he mentioned makes my alarm ring. That would have made it quite easy for him to lead the discussion in the direction he wants and then back out quickly if someone starts suspecting him.

Has no one really considered the possibility that Boro was merely trying us with his vote? At least to me it seems quite possible.

At the moment I'm inclined to consider Farael, Rikae, morm, Noggie, Boro and Might innocent. Of the others I don't know, except for Legate and Shasta whom I suspect slightly.

**

I'm really sorry, I have to go now. I'll try to be online as much as I can, but it'll be me who ends up being hanged if I spend the whole evening here.

[Aganzir]

Ok, this hasn't much to do with the subject, but I found it funny. Could it be another reason why the wolves decided to kill Shasta?

Originally Posted by Shasta's first post

Hmm, Nerwen seems to be anxious to turn the subject onto something harmless. Basket Weaving? The weather? How is this going to help us catch wolves and turn their pelts into fur coats? I've got my eye on you, Nerwen...

**

Rikae, Day 2:

Originally Posted by Rikae

However, (although I hate to say it) Macalaure's post indeed looks sinister to me. I don't see how his arguments against Aganzir for turning so suddenly and viciously against Nogrod don't apply to Mac himself just as well, for although he opposed Nogrod from the beginning, he had little to back it up at first - it came out of the blue in what was quite possibly a preplanned way. Furthermore, his final "PS" sends chills up my spine. There is the same taunting, gloating quality there I saw Macwolf demonstrate in the last game.

Originally Posted by Rikae

At this point, my vote is likely to go to Macalaure, whose suspicions toward Aganzir simply have too little to back them up (why Aganzir? He seems to be just trying to convince us it's possible for her to be a wolf, without telling us why it's likely), or to Valier ...

Rikae, Day 3:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm glad Mac clarified his suspicions of Aganzir. It actually does put my mind at ease, to some degree, about him, although I'm not quite convinced of Aganzir's guilt, either. One thing that does worry me about Aganzir is the whole "he's accusing me so I won't accuse him" thing. It sort of came out of nowhere, seemingly. I think it might be useful to test Mac's "hunch“ on Aganzir – he was, after all, right on Nogrod, and he actually is a highly skilled wolf-hunter. If he's mislead us, we have time to deal with him later.

Based on this quick change, I guess it's safe to say that if either Rikae or Nerwen was the cursed, it was Rikae. On Day 2 she had been suspecting Macalaure to the extent of almost voting him, on Day 3 she was completely on his side. This indicates that she's either the cursed or that she's the seer who dreamt of innocent Mac. It's not hard to decide which one sounds more probable.

I must run now. Back later.

[Rikae]

Well, well. I must say, it's difficult not to suspect Nogrod for not only failing to advocate lynching the quiet ones, but actually being rather quiet himself. I take it this is the new style?
I suppose somebody should provide the usual quiet/loud discussion, then. I suggest that we get rid of anyone who isn't pulling his or her weight in this villiage early on, rather than leave them to the last as unknown quantities when we can't afford to lose them.
No, Rikae, actually, it's better to keep them around, because it's better to have even a few short posts to go on than none at all.
Yes, but you don't understand. We can force them out of the shadows by threatening them with lynching!
Well, not so much now, can we, Rikae?

Yes, I know the above is pointless, but no more so than attempts to figure out TP's twists. Honestly, it could be anything at all, and throwing random ideas out isn't going to accomplish anything.

Instead, I suggest tossing around some accusations. For instance: I dislike the way Legate brings up the topic of the pre-game discussions while telling others - twice - not to discuss it. It shows a certain overcautiousness, if you know what I mean.

[Nerwen]

Calm down. What are you so jumpy about? I'm not accusing you. I'm just asking people to consider how incredibly easy the set-up makes it for the wolves to orchestrate a lynch. It's really worrying me.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Yes, I know the above is pointless, but no more so than attempts to figure out TP's twists. Honestly, it could be anything at all, and throwing random ideas out isn't going to accomplish anything.

I don't know about that– I think it might be worth discussing possibilities.

[Nerwen]

Calm down. What are you so jumpy about? I'm not accusing you. I'm just asking people to consider how incredibly easy the set-up makes it for the wolves to orchestrate a lynch. It's really worrying me.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Yes, I know the above is pointless, but no more so than attempts to figure out TP's twists. Honestly, it could be anything at all, and throwing random ideas out isn't going to accomplish anything.

I don't know about that– I think it might be worth discussing possibilities.

EDIT: X'd with Isbellkya. (The "you" I'm adressing is Mormegil.)
EDIT #2: And somehow I just double posted. Sorry.

[The Saucepan Man]

Apologies for not being more vocal but I am unfortunately experiencing internet connection problems. Currently, my only way of accessing the net is via my BlackBerry, which is very cumbersome and not at all conducive to playing WW.

It should sort itself out, but I don,t know how long it will take. Possibly, I may not be able to do anything more toDay other than vote.

I have only really been able to skim read the conversation this far, but here are my current suspicions, for what they are worth.

I tend to find those who come across as cautious on Day 1 as suspicious, as I always think that is the best approach for a Wolf at the outset. The two who have come across as most cautious thus far are Nerwen and Legate. As I think Noggie mentioned, caution is Legate's normal modis operandi. Not sure about Nerwen, but I am uneasy about the way that she seems to be portraying herself as so helpful.

On the other hand, while he is coming across as anything but cautious, I tend to agree with what others have said about Shasta being unusually vocal and somewhat jumpy.

As I said, I doubt that I shall be able to do any more toDay than vote (my thumbs are aching already) and, unless there are any radical developments, I shall probably vote for either Nerwen or Shasta.

Toodlepip.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hey, come back! Are you saying the Seer could BE the cursed?

No that's not what I'm saying - even if anything might happen.

But the seer may dream of an innocent early in the game and that person may then turn into a werewolf later and as the seer would have "seen" her/him only as a villager and not as a cursed one we can't be sure if there is even one denied kill. Although if we have the order of the dreams at that time we can limit the possible unknowns to a minimum of course.

Okay. I'm not sure how fruitful this discussion is either... Back to the timberland.

EDIT: X'd with Legate

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, to end up optimistically, I just thought that maybe tp could mercifully show us in the narration whether there was a protect-kill or a cursed villager transformation, though we cannot rely on that. But it would be nice.

Probably Merry Christmas, fellow villagers, because I will show probably only not too long before the end of the Day. Bye.

EDIT: x-ed with Farael. Don't be silly, Farael. It is called a "preventive comment". You could have been really this pre-day 1 "twister" and laughed at me. But this is still the topic we decided to drop. You are returning to it now, I said it's finished and I don't want to speak about it and discourage anyone to speak about it. Nog said it is normal thing and that settles it. Let's cut it before it continues.

Bye, really, and Merry Christmas if I don't check back in till they happen at you.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hey, come back! Are you saying the Seer could BE the cursed?

I know it's day one and there's nothing really to go on, but aren't we in enough troubles without jumping into weird theories?

Wow, what's wrong with me? Well, I guess that as long as it's not a CONSPIRACY theory it's fine for me to speak against them

First of all, the Seer cannot be the cursed if we go by the game's rules (of course, it could be one of the misterious twists). There it says that there's a seer that's separate from the cursed villager (Further evidence is given by the fact that Phantom mentions that if the seer dreams of the cursed villager blah blah... which cannot happen if the Seer WAS the cursed villager)

Also, here's something that I strongly dislike

Originally Posted by Legate

Okay, I will take your word, Farael

Don't, I might be wrong, but that's not what concerns me the most

(unless you are the one who provided that thing, be it for our good or bad).

THERE.... I do understand that "you can't trust anyone on day one" (and only a very few people in very rare situations later on) but that's just pointless. If you really think I might be bluffing by all means go on with your line of thought and see what comes out of it. If not, why make that comment?

It's as if you are trying to "implant" a waste-of-time theory on the village... 'cos we all know that most senseless theories that prop up on Day 1 are discussed well into the game and usually turn out to be a waste of time. That's also the reason I'm actively speaking against what I consider nonsense.

Edit: X-ed with Legate and Nogrod

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Farael

I know it's day one and there's nothing really to go on, but aren't we in enough troubles without jumping into weird theories?

Ah, professional jealously, is it?

[Isabellkya]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Meanwhile I'm off to hew down a few birches as that's the trade I know...

I completely mis-read this sentence and nearly choked on the water I was drinking. haha.

Awwhh.. but the discussion on how many wolves there were, was always entertaining time-wasting.

I agree Nerwen; with the wolves being able to communicate at all times; it shall be easier for them to form a bandwagon/lynching party.