WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[The Might]

Well, I am sure that there is little that I can say now to either make you trust me again, if you did trust me that is, or not lnych me. I know that I acted like a total fool, and I am sorry for that, also if necessary I am ready to support the consequences.
The problem is that I know I am innocent and that if I get killed today about that stupid decision yesterday and not a wolf the situation doesn't look good for the others.
I'm really sorry and there is not much that I can say.
Next time when there will be a double lynch possibilty I'll just keep my hands away from the keyboard.

I find those that voted for mormegil (ironic, myself too) quite suspicious right now.
All I want is for you to give me a chance to redeem myself. If you want proof that I am not a wolf, then I shall vote for whoever is considered to be a wolf by most.

Again, I am sorry for wasting the ranger, but now with our seer gone too we must stick together.

[Kuruharan]

Hmmm…welp…

The Might did willfully and with malice aforethought cause a double lynching even though at that point everybody else said they didn’t want one and were trying to work to prevent it. He’s been consistently distracting as well, bringing up various issues to get us arguing and neglecting the business of hunting wolves. Oh, and Kath voted against him on Day One.

He’s got some ‘splaining to do.

Meneltarmacil is beginning to look ever more suspicious. I’ve been hesitant in my suspicion of him because, lets face it, he’s always kind of suspicious. But now there is real reason to suspect him. He is wildly inconsistent and definitely has the appearance of going along with whatever the most popular theory at the time. He also seems leery of disagreeing with whoever it is he happens to be talking to at the time (ex. his arguing that morm was a wolf, then when morm appeared changing his mind, and then going back to arguing that morm was a wolf). Kath voted against him yesterday.

Thinlómien was one of my early suspects. I didn’t feel suspicious of her yesterday…mainly because she was saying things that I agreed with. Oops! So I’m suspicious of her again. I’m uncomfortable because she said she was willing to try a double lynch in post 339. However, she did try to avoid it at the end.

Shastanis Althreduin is very quiet. Not saying this is bad…just blends into the background and can be easily forgotten.

However, I don’t think all these people are wolves (obviously since there thankfully aren’t four wolves now).

These are the people who spoke favorably of a double lynching at some point yesterday…

The Might post 298 (caused one)
Menel post 301
Lommy post 339
Macalaure flip flopped on them initially saying in post 359 that he was against them, but then in post 366 seemed to downplay the risks of it.

[Volo]

My angst yesterDay after the bloodshed:
I wish I was dead. Or at least less influential, my old cobbler self to whom people didn't listen... (Cruel that I was a Cobbler last game.)
YesterDay was surely something I didn't await for and now I'm completely lost. Oh, morm, why didn't you tell us...
Now we should resolve that we won't double lynch ever unless the Seer tells us to.
I trust noone, myself the least...
Most suspicious: Menel, Might, Lommy, Brinn.

Ok, that was history and little attention should be given it.

I'd like to say a few words about Rangers:
Morm should have told us his role yesterDay. A lynched Ranger is one of the worst possible scenarios (only the lynching the Seer being worse).
I wouldn't have voted a person who declared himself the Ranger:
1. The person will probably be killed next Night (but that's better than lynching him).
2. The isn't killed during the Night, because the Wolves want to bluff and make us think that the person isn't the Ranger or the person wants to bluff and isn't the Ranger. I don't see any harm done this way. We don't lynch "the Ranger" unless another Ranger comes to claim the role or the real Ranger dies (or is Dreamed of). If a compeditor appeared we'd know that one of them is a Wolf - then we have to decide.


A few words about our Seer:
Read post #317. It gives the feel that her Day3 dream was morm.
The other dreams can be Brinn, Might and/or Menel. I'm not decided which they could be.


I'm in the middle of a post-to-post analysis of Day3, but I'll tell a few things I have found:
I get a feeling that Kuru is trying to steer the discussiong away (using the talk-effect or whatever it was called) both in #297 and #300. What do you think?

Another - and the more important - is:

Originally Posted by Mac

Lily and Menel

"I found Menel's continuous joking about not being eaten disturbing.
my vote today will most probably be Menel."

Menel finds her suspicious but chooses morm over her for reasons I think are understandable.

This has been mentioned before, but I find Menel's post #238 leaning suspicious.

Ah, I'll try to get my thoughts more organised now, get the whole post-to-post analysis over and look at Kath's posts.

The feeling before Kath's death, Aganzir being least suspicious and Menel being the most suspicious.
Aganzir
Thinlómien
Farael
Shastanis Althreduin
Macalaure
Feanor of the Peredhil
Kuruharan
Brinniel
The Might
Meneltarmacil

Xd with everything since #435.

[The Might]

Typical of a wolf to blame innocents when they are vulnerable, isn't that right Mac?
I've said it before and I repeat it again, if you need a proof, I shall vote for whoever you, the others will consider most suspicious.
Do you really want to weaken the village by lynching another, even if not so skilled, ordo?
Well, I am not sure what I should do to prove my innocence and I feel sorry that probably because of me we'll lose this game.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Volo, underlinings mine

I trust noone, myself the least...
Most suspicious: Menel, Might, Lommy, Brinn.

--

The feeling before Kath's death, Aganzir being least suspicious and Menel being the most suspicious.
Aganzir
Thinlómien
Farael
Shastanis Althreduin
Macalaure
Feanor of the Peredhil
Kuruharan
Brinniel
The Might
Meneltarmacil

What??

I don't understand why Volo rambles about rangers. It's a bit weird, and not in a positive way. On the other hand, his first angst seems quite unfeigned and kind of familiar...

A few words about our Seer:
Read post #317. It gives the feel that her Day3 dream was morm.
The other dreams can be Brinn, Might and/or Menel. I'm not decided which they could be.

I find it funny how differently we read her posts. I think other people should look at her posts as well and say what they think. Comparing the results would be interesting.

EDIT: xed with Miggy and Aggy

[The Might]

If I am a wolf, I promise to post a pic of me eating my socks after this is done.

No, but really now, I don't want to lose the game. By killing me you would waist the opportunity to kill a wolf.
I hope you will believe me, if not, then I guess I've earned it anyway because I was too newbish to listen...

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, after what happened with morm I think I'll join in on that clothes-eating party mentioned yesterday.

*proceeds to eat his coat, scarf, shoes, and haalf of his whole wardrobe*

OK, one more time, I never said that mormegil was innocent. The one comment I made about being unsure also contained a statement that I would go analyze his posts and report my findings. I did the analysis because I wanted to make sure of what he was before deciding on a vote. Later, I posted my analysis showing him to be wolfish. I hope that makes sense.

However, I'm out of leads right now. Maybe some of morm's suspicions about Lommy were correct, maybe not, but I really am out of ideas right now.

Finally, I am not a werewolf, but I don't think there's anything I can do now to shake off suspicion, so if you really want to lynch me, go right ahead. It's not going to accomplish anything, since I am not a werewolf, though.

[Aganzir]

To me it seems that Kath had dreamt of Lommy and morm and found both innocent.

Originally Posted by Kath

The fact that Lommy and morm had the same thing going yesterDay has me thinking they're both innocent, as the back and forth posts felt much as Rikae and Nerwen's did.

Because this looks such a fabricated reason to claim them both innocent.

About the third dream I have no idea. However, I doubt Kath would've specificly said she's not sure (like she said about Menel) if she was speaking of a dreamt wolf.

At the moment I think Brinn's much more probably a wolf than Menel.

Originally Posted by Lommy

And Aganzir could be lynched just for being so nasty.

Now I don't think that's a proper reason.

Off to sleep now.

[Farael]

First of all

*Grabs ketchup, eats hat*

Sally what were you thinking? Even though you were speaking sense yesterDay, your previous behaviour made it sound as if you were a wolf afraid that they'd call your bluff and trying to back down... It's a shame that you were an ordo, but I stand by my vote... you really did seem wolfish.

And while we are questioning other people's thoughts [B}The Might[/B] what were you thinking?

If we were at an earlier stage of the game, I'd say we have to lynch him to clear the air... I mean, that double-lynch went against what most of the village wanted, at the least it was a selfish move. Right now, we can't afford to lose another ordo, and I still get the feeling he's just a confused ordo.

I wouldn't blame him, the wolves have been playing us like a fiddle.

Now on to the accusations.

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Finally, I am not a werewolf, but I don't think there's anything I can do now to shake off suspicion, so if you really want to lynch me, go right ahead. It's not going to accomplish anything, since I am not a werewolf, though.

That right there reeks of wolfishness. I don't think there have been many strong accusations levelled at Menel yet, and even though they are sure to come, I think he started with this defence a bit too fast.

Originally Posted by Volo

Morm should have told us his role yesterDay. A lynched Ranger is one of the worst possible scenarios (only the lynching the Seer being worse).
I wouldn't have voted a person who declared himself the Ranger:
1. The person will probably be killed next Night (but that's better than lynching him).
2. The isn't killed during the Night, because the Wolves want to bluff and make us think that the person isn't the Ranger or the person wants to bluff and isn't the Ranger. I don't see any harm done this way. We don't lynch "the Ranger" unless another Ranger comes to claim the role or the real Ranger dies (or is Dreamed of). If a compeditor appeared we'd know that one of them is a Wolf - then we have to decide.

Well, first of all this train of thought is a waste of time... a) Morm's dead and b) he was most likely not around when the last votes were coming in. Keep in mind that he probably did not want to say his role unless it was completely necessary to.

That's another thing that concerns me about The Might... he came in right at the last minute and BAM! double-lynch. No good explanations other than "I feel I need to do this". The more I think of it, the more suspicious it seems, and yet it's amost "too easy".

And here's an interesting thought... with five votes to go, Morm was up by 2 (4-2) votes over Sally

Then:

Loomy votes for Sally, in agreement with Kuru who thought it was best to kill Sally than Morm

Brinniel votes for Menel. I don't think it was a good idea, as there was a clear risk of a double lynch... she should've voted either for Morm and try to put him out of reach, or [B}Sally[/B] and help those who wanted to get rid of her isntead. However, at that point there were still enough votes left to lynch Menel instead of the other two, so I don't think it was a wolfish move.


Aganzir votes for Sally and remarks it's a tie, asking others to vote.

Kuruharan votes for Sally

The Mgiht seals their fate with a double-lynch. He also starts apologising right away... that right there is making me lean towards Might being a wolf... if you believe that a double-lynch is a good idea (and you clearly do, since you caused it) why apologise profusely from the get-go? after all, should you be right, you could very well be the hero!

Looking at these last votes, I'd say that Loomy and Kuru seem honest... they were acting to lynch Sally instead of [B]Morm[/B}. Brinniel seems innocent too, but with an ill-fated vote for a third party. However, it wasn't a "throw away" vote, Menel had a chance of getting lynched. Immediately after that vote, Aganzir votes for Sally, setting up the double-lynch scenario. Kuru breaks the tie but Might ties it up again.

So I'd say that from there Might is possibly a wolf, Aganzir may be too, and trying to act to protect Menel by forcing the remaning voters to ignore Menel as an option or have a triple lynch.

I will probably be around on and off, but it's not guaranteed so I will cast my vote now to make sure I get it in.

While Menel looks worse by the minute, I just find Might's actions impossible to ignore, specially the fact that he started apologising as soon as he voted. He never once considered the possibility that he might nail down two wolves, which was likely since Sally and Morm had been under heavy fire for quite a while. That makes me think he knew that double lynch would be disastrous, and the only way he could've known is by being a wolf

++The Might

As a parting-shot, I'd like to hear some more from Fea

[Meneltarmacil]

I look more suspicious to you lately, Volo? Don't forget that you were right behind me when it came to suspecting mormegil.

[Brinniel]

Well, so far I have yet to eat clothes because for once I was right. Urgh...I'm still so angry over the events over yesterDay. Not only was morm innocent, but he was the ranger! And now we've lost the seer too...

I've been kicking myself over my vote yesterDay...I thought there were less people left to vote and for some reason I hoped that with a vote for Menel, people would less likely to want to risk a double-lynch in the chance it could turn into a triple-lynch. I don't know why I thought that...I was stupid and running late to class. But I also realise even if I did vote for one of the two lynchees, someone still could've turned it into a double lynch. So perhaps it wouldn't have made a difference. *sigh*

Moral of the Story: Double-lynches always turn into disaster. What did I tell you?

The Might is looking awfully bad I must say particularly with his vote.

If you want proof that I am not a wolf, then I shall vote for whoever is considered to be a wolf by most.

That doesn't really help much; it's just an excuse for a possible wolf to hide among a large group. But say, would you vote for yourself again if most consider you the wolf, Might?

While I'm still pretty upset with Might causing this double-lynch, I still can't be sure he's a wolf. Could just as easily be a poor misguided soul. And if he is, I'm sure the wolves are taking advantage of it.

I still won't change my mind since Day 2. Menel and Volo still look furriest to me. And the fact that morm agreed with me and so did Kath on Menel makes me feel even better about my suspicions.

I think Aganzir could possibly be our third wolf. Remember she caused a 3-3 tie in the votes before Kuru broke it.

I admit I haven't read everyone's posts toDay thoroughly, but I have to run to dinner before the cafe closes. There's still a lot I want to say, so I'll be back later.

[Volo]

Volo suddenly goes very defencive... of Might.

Originally Posted by Farael

The Mgiht seals their fate with a double-lynch. He also starts apologising right away... that right there is making me lean towards Might being a wolf... if you believe that a double-lynch is a good idea (and you clearly do, since you caused it) why apologise profusely from the get-go? after all, should you be right, you could very well be the hero!

Innocents appologise just as often as the Wolves do, if not even more often.
I thought about what the Wolves win by causing a double-lynch like that and putting one of their own into such a position. They couldn't know morm was the Ranger, so I think that the deal would not be a good one for the Wolves.

Originally Posted by Might

Anyways, looking at those quotes I think I might be onto something. It's funny how Might was viewed as so suspicious on Day 1 and after that, everyone seemed to forget about him (except for our dear seer). I must say Might has made many mistakes in this game (voting for himself, his safe vote for Green, causing a double-lynching, his seemingly heavy reliance on other people's posts). So far a lot of us overlooked it saying, "Oh, he's probably just a confused innocent and his mistakes are newbieish behaviour." I admit I've done it myself. But it's just as likely he's a newbie wolf making several mistakes despite the advice of his fellow mates.

Now it looks like Sally's actions, and since I was so wrong with those, I wouldn't want to lynch another Innocent newbie for the same reasons.
The part about fellow mates giving advice seems to be a key point. Might's style of play didn't change a little bit from yesterDay to toDay, and I'm sure that if there was discussion between him and fellow Wolves, then he'd change his style and inevitably play "better".


Now I think that Kath Dreamed of Innocent Lommy and morm, as Aganzir mentioned in #449.
And Wolf Menel, like I mentioned in post #450.


I find one thing Mac said very disturbing:

Originally Posted by Mac, underlined by me

Volo, on the other hand, seems to be more serious with his suspicions against Lily. He didn't mention her on day one and then pursued her on day two. He gives her the almost deciding 4th vote. If a wolf tried to actively kill Lily, then Volo fits the description.

At first I thought that Brinn said that comment - and I'd have regarded it a reason to lynch her outright. Now in Mac's case I can't find an explanation to this being suspicious as Mac hasn't had Wolves as his main suspects (if Might isn't one). But to say something like that makes me feel that the Wolves discussed about at least one of them attacking the fellow Wolves strongly - if Mac is a Wolf, and he could be a flying-over-the-radar Wolf (which is wierd as it's Mac we're talking about). Do you think this is too far-fetched?


I have another question, about our wandering Dwarf friend Kuru. Anybody who's played with him before: Is he always so undecided? He seems like being aware of all the stuff happening here, but there is barely a post in which he's sure of what he's talking. I mean he talks a lot and gives his opinion about most things going around, but he nearly always puts a "but...", "on the other hand...", "looks too easy..." after his point and dissolves it by saying the very opposite. One can't be sure whom he suspects, and one can't even see what he thinks about people. Mostly he follows other people's trails and sweeps them around.


I'm late for a meeting, again. :/

[Kuruharan]

I’m not finding either The Might or Menel very convincing right now at all.

The Might seems more interested in saving his own skin than in finding other wolves.

Menel…well…he says this…

I look more suspicious to you lately, Volo? Don't forget that you were right behind me when it came to suspecting mormegil.

…that’s a bit tacky. It doesn’t sit well with me at all.

Since Kath spoke about Lommy in a favorable light a few times, I’ll take her word for it at least for awhile.

[Meneltarmacil]

Why are all the major "let's lynch morm" people from yesterDay suddenly going after me? Kuru, I'm especially surprised that you're attacking me just because I wanted to take a second look at mormegil, given that you seemed to rush headlong into suspecting morm. I'll admit I was worried about everyone going after me toDay, but why the former anti-morm crowd?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I always feel so overshadowed and I can never think of anything to say that someone else hasn't already said better.

The ones I am most suspicious of now (though, I was completely, totally wrong about morm):

Volo, for... well, I don't believe I ever explicitly stated a reason, and right now it's midnight and I don't have time to go back and look for it. I'll do it tomorrow, promise. I do believe I have something solid on him.

Brinn and Menel have already been talked about today. To be honest, they strike me as odd as well, but I can't find a single concrete thing about them. I don't know if both of them are wolves, though.

[Brinniel]

I wonder if the wolves actually killed Kath because they thought she was the seer. I honestly didn't see anything seerish about her before...and there were others who looked more seerish than her. She wasn't generally suspected, so that could be a reason why they chose her...

Who she could've dreamt of:

Night 1
My best guess is Lommy. She found her innocent all three Days and as a louder player, Lommy would be a good Night 1 choice.

Night 2
This is the one I'm struggling on; I think she either dreamt of Might or Green.

Might would seem like the obvious choice. After all, she voted for him the previous Day. And why not vote for your top suspect? If she did dream of him, then Might would be guilty because she never did drop her suspicions. But then, why did she not pursue him? Was she worried her seerishness would be too obvious to the wolves? Was it because Might wasn't heavily suspected the next two Days?

It's also possible she dreamt of Green since from the first post, she began suspecting her. Still, I'm not sure. Why would she dream of Green? Why would she keep Might on her most suspicious list for three Days and not dream him?

Night 3
I'm quite sure she dreamt of morm. Her thoughts on him changed overnight even when he was still a top suspect.

My guess is that she dreamt of Menel last Night. Too bad we won't ever know. Here's another thought: Why did she suspect Menel in the first place? Might was still higher on her suspicious list when she started to suspect Menel. She was the first to vote Menel; my guess is that she chose him because he was more likely to receive votes, and she knew how important it was to save morm.

I still would like to consider it a possibility Kath dreamt of Might. I think perhaps we should look at the connections between Green and Might, Green and Menel, and Might and Menel.

It's a shame both of our gifteds had to leave so early before deadline. I'm sure if morm knew for sure he couldn't be saved, he would've revealed. And if Kath were around, she probably would've revealed him too if she indeed dreamt of him.

[Aganzir]

This situation is slightly annoying me. We do half of the work for the wolves.

Originally Posted by The Might

If you want proof that I am not a wolf, then I shall vote for whoever is considered to be a wolf by most.

But that's not a proof that you're not a wolf. That's a proof that you want to remain alive, cost what it will.

It's 8-3 now. Could we possibly decide to avoid double-lynches from now on?

I don't know what to think about The Might. First he says he would vote for sally, then he counts the votes and votes morm, causing a double lynch. To me this looks extremely suspicious.

I think Might and Brinniel are likely to be fellow wolves. I'll explain it better when I have more time (this night or tomorrow, rl).

Originally Posted by Lommy

but right now I feel that Menel and Aganzir might be furry

The same thing happened with your mammoth-theory: at least half was wrong.

Originally Posted by Might

Volo's post right before my vote seems quite wolvish as well.

To me it seems rather quite voloish.