WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Legate:

Day 1

#33: Finds Rikae strange, but says she's always that way. Menel isn't suspicious and Brinn's genuine. Green's posts are bit too structured. Kuru is strange.

#34: Lommy's post is most calming and helpful, Brinn's is also good. Valier seems contradicting.

#45: Thinks Nerwen is too self-critical. Makes a comment about the possiblity of Green and Valier as wolves.

#83: Thinks Might is fishy. Lommy doesn't seem wolfish; is more convinced that Nerwen is. Worried about morm, though his posts are so far reasonable.

#87: Nerwen's defensive nature is suspicious. Doesn't like Kuru's one-liners.

#115: Votes Nerwen.

I agree with a lot of what he has to say, and don't see anything suspicious here.

Day 2

#153: Says Agan has weak points- no one would kill Valier for only her hunches thought dangerous. Thinks it's more probable morm was framed, though it could be a double bluff. Thinks Lommy's post looks confused and innocentish.

#162: Finds morm's reply wolfish.

Conclusion: Day 2, and I still think Legate is talking sense. Going all the way back to his first game, I know how dangerous a furry Legate can be, so I will be wary...but still, I think it's more likely he's innocent for now at least.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Aganzir:

Day 1

#48: Agreeing with Lommy, states it's possible to catch the quiets by seeing how other wolves treat them. Legate, Menel, and Volo are genuine, and Nerwen is reasonable. Agrees with Rikae. Finds nothing wolfish about Lommy.

#99: Thinks Lommy is protecting Green. Is neutral about Valier and wary of Nerwen. Doesn't think Might is a wolf.

#108: Considers voting for Nerwen for attempting to divert suspicion from her.

#120: Votes Nerwen.

No red flags here.

#141: Agrees that Valier could've been mistaken for seer. Or her hunches were too dangerous or a quiet wolf was worried about her first comment.

#186: Doesn't like how Lommy points Valier's death to seer hints. Thinks Menel comments too much about how he's surprised to be alive. Is wary of Brinn, Fea, and Volo for only speculating about morm and Valier.

About the first comment: I find it strange she accuses Lommy for this reason, when she happened to agree with her earlier.

Conclusion: While she seems a bit more contradictory toDay, nothing immediately alarms me.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Farael

Day 2

#155: Mentions that Rikae accuses Nerwen then shifts it to Lommy. Thinks Rikae is too aggressive and finds her wolfish.

#161: Still doesn't like Rikae. Finds Lommy flip-flopping.

#176: Finds Rikae's behaviour suspicious and vote her. If Rikae's a wolf, look at Brinn.

Doesn't realise Rikae has already withdrawn.

Conclusion: While I tend to agree with his thoughts on Rikae, I don't know enough about him to form any sort of opinion yet.

Yay, I'm done analysing. My back hurts from sitting at the computer so long. I don't think I'll ever be this analytical on Day 2 again, not with this many people.

[Brinniel]

Okay, since I starting analysing, my opinions haven't really changed that much.

So, to put all the conclusions from my posts into one big list:

Leaning Innocent:
Mac
Might
Legate

Neutral:
Sally
Fea
Kuru
Kath
Aganzir
Farael

Slightly Suspicious:
Menel
Shasta
Lommy
Morm

Suspicious:
Green
Volo

Okay, I'm going to go sleep for awhile because I just spent the entire night doing WW. I'll be back before deadline, but no more flood posts from me toDay. *phew*

[Thinlómien]

I don't really know what to think of this sudden outpour of Brinniel's, so maybe I try not to think about it all...

Somehow, I don't like the fact that Legate is so sure of my innocence. It makes me feel like he had realised I tend to trust those who trust me and is using it to achieve his own ends. Or something like that. The point is, it makes him feel slightly suspicious to me.

This might be a bit ridiculous point, but I think Little G's way of using the -smiley is very wolvish. I really can't explain it, but somehow it always makes me shiver when she uses it. I think she uses it in a slightly apologetic way or to emphasise she's no threat to anyone.

Originally Posted by Greenie

You see, Lommy, as it happens I have no idea of what wolves "usually" do. Your comment seems somewhat sensible, though.

Did I say you should have?

Originally Posted by Greenie

Lommy, what made you suddenly think morm's manner as suspicious?

Rereading.

Originally Posted by Volo

Sally: Now she sure hunts morm! She constantly flirts with the idea of being a Wolf, which seems like something a Wolf wouldn't do, but it's driving me crazy. I'm capable of imagining a Wolf who does that, even a newbie Wolf - no, especially a newbie Wolf. Sally appologised that she wouldn't be productive, and truly, she hasn't been productive. I'm thinking of she might be a Wolf who thinks of being very far from being lynched - there's not enough try there, as if her appologisive tone is an excuse for just being around.
The more I read her posts, the more I feel that that's our Wolf.

Now, that's well phrased. I was thinking along the same lines, but I couldn't have pinpointed it all like that. I agree with practically everything Volo says here.

Speaking of him, I find the beginning of his post #193 somewhat suspicious. I can't put my finger on it, but the way he speculates sounds somewhat wrong to me. If morm proves to be a wolf, I'd have a second look at Volo.

Anyway, I also agree with what Volo says about Green and morm. They do look like wolf partners, to some extent at least.

Originally Posted by Volo

Because Legate and Lommy agree with me, I don't think that they are Wolves. If we are wrong, I'll look at them more closely.

Agree about what?

Originally Posted by Brinn

He doesn't explain why he votes Volo and that frustrates me.

Yes, Shasta, could you please explain this the next time you're around?

Originally Posted by TM

Anways, thanks Brinn for the analyses of the others, as I said before as a newbie I'll be more or less dependent on this stuff, as I don't know how different players act in certain situations.

I'm really a bit worried about how much you trust or claim to trust other people.

Originally Posted by TM

I don't like how she considers Legate's posts so relaxed and calm. I am sure sure that a smart guy like Legate could well manage to post innocentishly even as a wolf.

I think he would well be able to do that. But his calmness and relaxedness seems mostly more of the innocent sort - I think calm and relaxed wolves tend to be more distant than relaxed and calm innocents. I really can't explain it very well, so maybe I just should say his manner seems innocentish.

Originally Posted by Fea

My question about Lommy: when you jumped in to post that Valier's death looks like morm's guilt, did you believe it, or were you just being the first one to publicly admit to the possibility?

I wanted to admit the possibility (admit? now I'm not sure if that's a good word because it sounds like I and morm had a furry alliance...) but I also thought the most probable reason for Valier's death. So I could say I believed in morm's guilt, but that might be a bit exaggerated as I really wasn't sure (and am even more unsure now since there have been credible arguments for morm's innocence being a 50-50 possibility at least).

Originally Posted by Brinn

Through all this analysis, I find it strange she didn't even think of the possibilty that morm was framed.

Isn't analysis something well-ordered that makes sense? Anyway, what about this comment:

Originally Posted by me, bolding added later

If I try to imagine her as the seer, it sounds more like she had dreamt of morm than that she hadn't, but on the other hand, why would she as the seer suspected morm-wolf that loudly? So her being killed as the seer doesn't necessarily point at morm being a wolf. I mean, the wolves might have killed her even if morm was an innocent. Certainly the wolves knew, though, that Valier's death would point at morm.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Why would you bring in another candidate if you're worried about double lynching?

Simply because I knew I'm not guilty and morm and TM didn't seem particularly suspicious to me. I didn't think bringing in a fourth candidate would greatly increase the risk of a double-lynch and I'd rather vote someone suspicious even if it increases the minimalistic risk of a double lynch a little than vote for someone I don't suspect at all just to be 99,9% sure there will be no double-lynch.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Because morm was highly suspected yesterDay, therefore more lynchable.

True, but he was not the only one who would have been easy to frame, if you ask me.

Originally Posted by Menel

Of the four wolves, I'd say two voted for Nerwen, one voted morm, and the last one could be anywhere, though I think Valier would be the best "wolf-bait" among the remaining candidates.

Is there any actual reason for you to think that way? Making that kind of assumptions on futile grounds is more than dangerous.

Originally Posted by Fea

I did make that post. In 140/165 when I hit edit instead of quote and ended up replacing my list of Val-posts:

Oh, sorry, I really seem to be quite stupid or confused for I did read that post... I think you seem a bit more innocent than guilty, but I'm definitely not sure, you tend to be such an enigma...

As to who I might vote toDay, I would feel the safest with voting Green. I suspect her quite a lot. I could vote morm too but this morm-Valier -thing seems to be all too complicated and messy and I really should think more about it before voting morm. If I don't have time to think more about it, I don't think I will vote him, unless I should choose between him and someone I consider far more innocentish. I could vote Sally or TM too, but I'd prefer voting Greenie (or morm, if I reach the conclusion he does seem guilty).

EDIT: xed with morm and Miggy

[The Might]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Somehow, I don't like the fact that Legate is so sure of my innocence. It makes me feel like he had realised I tend to trust those who trust me and is using it to achieve his own ends. Or something like that. The point is, it makes him feel slightly suspicious to me.

Hmmm, now this seems to be an explanation of why you both trust each other. Question is why you felt then need to explain this, is there something that must be hidden, or do you really suspect him?

He said he trusts you in #153, and yet in #187 when you made the list of people you see him as one of the innocents. Why is it that he trusting became suspicious now and not earlier? Does it have anything to do with me feeling bad about both of you?

Now, I'm not sure, but after this post my suspicion of you seems to make more sense.

[Meneltarmacil]

Following recent comments (and a couple of votes), I've gone to look at everything Volo has said and now return to present my conclusions.

Volo mentions suspicion of two people: Legate and Valier. Legate just seems thrown in there with little reason other than "he's too friendly," and mild suspicion of him is discussed. His reasons for Valier-voting are mainly simple agreement with what has been said, which does sound strange.

Now, his behavior on Day 2 is very odd. He rapidly changes his position on Valier's death, but leaves the focus on what the implications for morm might be. However, he seems to leave out the fact that he may also be implicated in her death.

We may have a wolf here, but with the emphasis on "may." If morm is a wolf, Volo probably isn't, as two wolves voting for Valier would be unlikely given last night's events. For the moment I'll just be watching Volo carefully.

[A Little Green]

First of all, I'm still unfomfortable with Lommy. I can't quite put a finger on it. There's something about her overly cheerful and helpful manner I find suspicious.

Secondly, after reading carefully through the entire thread, I found Menel's continuous joking about not being eaten disturbing. Also, it seems to me that he's been overly careful in voicing his opinions. I find him quite suspicious.

Volo is troubling me greatly at the moment. Though his latest post explained a little, there is definitely something there I don't like. Just a gut-feeling, probably.

So. Votes this far (if I'm not mistaken):
morm - 1
Volo - 2
Greenie - 1

morm, like I've said before, strikes me as innocent. Volo is suspicious, but I'd be reluctant to vote for him because I don't have valid arguments against him.

Therefore, my vote today will most probably be Menel. (Or Lommy, if she convinces me of her guilt before the deadline.) I'm ready to go for Volo as well if there is a great possibility of a double-lynch that my voting for Volo would prevent.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Volo

Because Legate and Lommy agree with me, I don't think that they are Wolves. If we are wrong, I'll look at them more closely.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Agree about what?

About who are suspicious.

Originally Posted by Sally

you left me off your list love.

Yes, dear, I reserved a special place above the list for you, a place called "suspicious".

Originally Posted by Sally

Because A: why the heck would I vote him both days so vigorously, unless I am either incredibly stupid or incredibly clever, B: the same for Morm's actions today in a way, voting someone who finds me suspicious is either ballsy or idiotic, C: okay I can't think of a C right now but that's alright I'm sure someone else will analyze this post in a bit anyway.

I like the "incredibly clever" part. The only thing here than makes me suspect you less is than you're a newbie, but Wolves frequently vote eachother, otherwise finding them would be much easier as we would know outright who can't be a Wolf after we find who was a Wolf. Since morm was in no real danger of being lynched, it was safe to vote him to cover tracks. And if he is in real danger of being lynched, it's easy to hide among the votes as your vote can't save him anyway. (Umm... Why am I explaining these things anyway... I find you suspicious and if you're a Wolf you probably understand it anyway.)

Originally Posted by Lommy

Somehow, I don't like the fact that Legate is so sure of my innocence. It makes me feel like he had realised I tend to trust those who trust me and is using it to achieve his own ends. Or something like that. The point is, it makes him feel slightly suspicious to me.

I find it funny that you would say something like this as you have pretty much trusted me the whole game and agreed with nearly everything I have said, or at least told me as much. And why doesn't my trust for you and Legate turn on such alarms? The thought that you have noticed that I trust people who agree with me (Heck, I even said so myself in the preveous post.) and used it against us comes into my mind.
But I am not going to vote you or Legate toDay. I'm very sure that tomorrow will make these things much clearer.

And another note about Lommy & Legate: Even if I'm wrong in trusting them, I find it extremely improbable that both of them are Wolves, there is too much agreement between them, even if their lists aren't completely alike. And since there is no Cobbler in this game, I'm sure than at least one of them does deserve our trust.


I'll leave this at this and move to look into Kath's, Brinniel's and Mac's (Since you asked for it... ) souls or something like that.

[Kath]

My apologies, but it's going to have to be an early vote again. My suspicions remain the same as they did earlier, and for the same reasons, but I do want to mention that my suspicion of Brinniel has increased after the deluge of posts she made earlier. It's reminiscent of a wolvish tactic I once used so it worries me. However, my main suspicion remains with:

++A LITTLE GREEN

[Macalaure]

I finished reading properly until my first post today. Here's what I found so far.

This still seems staged for me:
Lommy carefully accuses morm to have killed Valier, then he mocks it. Then Lommy continues along the lines of a frame. Then both slowly back down from their mutual suspicion. If Lommy and morm are wolves, this would make sense to me. They feared Valier was the seer, and now they try to keep people away from going after morm by making it clear, by a weak case and ridicule, that morm is no wolf and is being framed by them. I might be over-interpreting, but this is how it appears to me.

By the way, if morm is evil, it's not a double-bluff: it's a semi-double-bluff, because in the first place he would have expected to sacrifice himself over a killed seer who dreamt of him, and is now using plan B.

Aganzir and Lily (*is inspired by Fea's Lil*) talk about the loud/silent arguments of Valier in the beginning. I find this suspicious as it's too obvious this had nothing to do with her death.

Farael is a little too aggressive for my liking, but that's him. He feels genuine, though. A lot of people quickly took up his suspicion of Rikae. These reactions are worth examining tomorrow, when we know her role.

Originally Posted by Volo

Looking at yesterDay, I'm quite sure that Lommy has been Seered upon.

explain?

[Thinlómien]

Sally's post #218 is something all too wolvish. I mean, if she knew she herself was innocent, she wouldn't surely speculate that way.

Originally Posted by TM

Hmmm, now this seems to be an explanation of why you both trust each other. Question is why you felt then need to explain this, is there something that must be hidden, or do you really suspect him?

He said he trusts you in #153, and yet in #187 when you made the list of people you see him as one of the innocents. Why is it that he trusting became suspicious now and not earlier? Does it have anything to do with me feeling bad about both of you?

Now, I'm not sure, but after this post my suspicion of you seems to make more sense.

There's nothing that must be hidden, from my part at least. I don't actually suspect him, since he seems mostly innocent to me, but that is just a suspicious streak in his behaviour I thought I'd like to mention. As to why it became suspicious only now, well, it only started to feel a bit odd after he had made that zone-post of his and named me and some other people as probably innocent with no further explanations. So, it doesn't have anything to do with your suspicions, sorry.

Originally Posted by Volo

I find it funny that you would say something like this as you have pretty much trusted me the whole game and agreed with nearly everything I have said, or at least told me as much. And why doesn't my trust for you and Legate turn on such alarms? The thought that you have noticed that I trust people who agree with me (Heck, I even said so myself in the preveous post.) and used it against us comes into my mind.

I know why I've said I think you innocent and agree with you almost all the time, but I have no way of knowing why does Legate say he thinks me innocent. I mean, I know I say I think you innocent because I genuinely think so, but I can't know if Legate says he thinks me innocent because he really does so or because he tries to make me trust him or something else suspicious. As to your trust of me and Legate, well, it simply hasn't caught my eye the way Legate's trust for me did. Maybe you're just a subtler wolf than Legate is...

Lastly, a few words about Little Green. She seems like a class example of a newbie wolf. She goes along with the popular suspects and sticks to the one suspicion she's had during all the game. She also seems to pretend no one suspects her at all and doesn't react at all to the accusations against her. That's exactly what I did in my second game ever when I was evil. It is a very common wolvish mistake, one that especially inexperienced wolves tend to do. So (Aganzir, you may gasp now, since you've been waiting for this ), Little Green, I give you a piece of advice, if you're innocent, start defending yourself against the false accusations. You're one of my top suspects right now and I will most probably vote you. You're doing no good to my opinion of you by discounting all the accusations towards you. I give you a chance to make me change my opinion of you: defend yourself in a credible manner and if I'm convinced, I will refrain from voting you (at least toDay). A credible defense may change other people's views of you as well.

EDIT: xed with Mac

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Alright, some views on the current situation.

I see many people speak about Lilla Greenhand here as being suspicious. Well, for myself I can say she seemed more or less genuine to me at the beginning and that this image is beginning to dissolve slowly, as I said before. The opinions she holds in her #223 could make me suspect her more: given her overall behavior, she seems to follow certain long-time suspects, and she holds to them whatever the case. Also, she seems to defend morm, which, in the case he were a were a were a were wolf (sorry, that was the keyboard), could point to her as a pack-mate, and vice versa. But the main thing are the long-time suspects, as I said - bite and hold, maybe once the bit of flesh will fall off. That moves her to the orange zone for me.

However, what strikes me as terribly wolfish was Sally's post:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

P.S. I just realized that Morm voted Volo. So chain of events is Sally votes Morm, Volo finds Sally suspicious for picking on Morm, Morm votes Volo. Unless my logic is hugely flawed, that means that it is unlikely that both of us are wolves, Morm and I that is. Because A: why the heck would I vote him both days so vigorously, unless I am either incredibly stupid or incredibly clever, B: the same for Morm's actions today in a way, voting someone who finds me suspicious is either ballsy or idiotic, C: okay I can't think of a C right now but that's alright I'm sure someone else will analyze this post in a bit anyway.

And even the rest of it. I don't see that she would be as much attacked upon, but look what she does! "It is unlikely that both of US are wolves" - what is that supposed to mean? I would understand if she said that about someone else. I would understand if she said that at the point when, let's say, morm revealed a wolf and she were accused. But this? Why? How? What?
I simply don't get this comment. I said before what I thought about her posting, and I tried to be reserved because I had problems with not being suspicious on her because of her style even if she were innocent. But I cannot resist now and switch her into the red alert zone. Unless there appears another candidate in my red zone, or unless there is any voting crisis and threat upon someone whom I consider innocent, I'll probably vote her toDay.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy

[Volo]

So many players could be called under-the-radar flyers. Not that they aren't noticed, but they are not discussed. Probably that's good for now as this large number of players is taking a toll on me, I really wouldn't want to participate in the game I modded .

Kath leaves me completely baffled. And the problem is that she seemes to leave pretty much everybody else baffled as well, even Fea. Mac would appear the only one suspecting her. I don't remember an Innocent Kath doing that, at the very least she has been suspicious. Since it is the case, I hope to see more of her in the Days to come.


Brinniel:

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I find Valier's vote to be a bit odd. Mainly because I can't see what's so suspicious about morm.

Flashback to Lily's (Haha, funny, I'll use that, although it would help us to decide one name for each player, that would help using "search" a lot.) post. That's all.
Really - except for her analysis, which is obviously very unrational *joke* - she looks rational, useful - although I don't find much use in summaries like that, except when I write them myself, sorry Brin - and Innocent. As for Kath, I'd give her more time.

Originally Posted by Volo

Looking at yesterDay, I'm quite sure that Lommy has been Seered upon.

Originally Posted by Mac

explain?

Shalln't, I really hope that is forgotten as it is. But if you insist - please don't - I will explain.