Tol-In-Gaurhoth XXXVIII - E.T.T.T.S.O.W.I.

[Nogrod]

Brother Mac is loose again I see. And at the same time he's rising the alarm-levels even higher. This time with some semi-seriousness if you allow me.

Follow the steps if you could, please.

Mac has the one track-mind of pursuing the "easiest" first Day lynch ie. the ideological enemy. Why is that suspicious you may ask? I'll tell you.

There are nine people on this island - three of them are baddies. Now of the nine six are easily bagged into a kind of sympathic union together being this or that way communist-liberal-hippie-activist-conspiracy teorist and what not. So the probability for at least two baddies lurking among these six is a high one. In case two (or three) are there it would be logical, safe and neat to try to call for an "ideological vote" on Day1 that would pick someone from the remaining three.

It would keep the real baddies out of the harms way and the baddies taking part in that vote (or calling for it) could always explain afterwards that they were just having a Day1 in-role mode on.

What strikes me as even more suspicious is Mac's quick appreciation and continuation of Brinn's idea about myself trying to do the thing I'm suspecting someone else on. The problem is that as the only true conservative around I can't hope to attract "the masses" here to vote on partylines - voting along the partylines would always end up with myself losing in the first place. But Mac (or Brinn for that matter) could do it as there might be five others who could be lured into this scheme.

And that's always the path of the bad ones: use any suspicion someone else has thrown in and ride with it. Safe and sound = you can always say it was someone else's idea and you're not the only one to blame & makes you look like one who has an actual reason for your vote (and thence not a baddie who has to fabricate the reasons).

That said, I'm not quite ready to vote Mac toDay as he seems to be one of the few who actually takes an interest in the well-being of us here in this island. I have a bad feeling that he is faking his interest but after all it's better to have someone to talk to than to just guess day after day.

So - believe it or not - I might take the advice of that flower-girl. That would mean voting for an enigma toDay. If that has to be done it should be sooner rather than later.

Fortunately we still have an hour. I'll need to think.

EDIT: X'd with Mac. That post relaxed me a bit - not so much because he said he wasn't going to vote for me toDay but because of the general calmness and reasonableness of the post.

[Brinniel]

Am I taking things between Mac and Nogrod too seriously? I don't think so. Maybe some of it is banter, but they still seem to be at each other's throats. It's quite possible there's a henchman among them, but right now it's too early to tell.

It's difficult to make any real judgements at this point. With our group being such a small voice, I'd rather not vote for the vocal ones toDay as later on it will be even harder to sort out who's good and evil among the quiet. I do agree voting for an enigma may be the best choice at this point. I'm not sure about xyzzy since he has not even spoken yet...though I won't eliminate the possibility. Perhaps Shasta would be a good choice; he has spoken, but contributed very little.

Less than an hour to vote...so where is everyone?

[Nogrod]

I'm not happy to vote for Mac, Lommy or Legate on Day1 as they seem to be involved. With this quiet village we need every talker indeed.

Of the others I have the following impressions.

Menel sounds innocentish, especially his last

whenever I do post a vague thought of mine just to have something to talk about, everybody reads more into it than is actually there

sounds quite innocent to my ears. I don't think Menel-wolf would think of writing that.

Sister Susie I'm pretty confused about. Ranting on someone talking too much in this silent island... He should probably be lynched just because of that counterproductive thinking.

Xyzzy we haven't seen or heard yet. Should we or should we not try lynching him?

Shasta I find a bit suspicious. His query on Lommy's motives was a bit weird as Lommy had actually quite clearly stated her reasons (she has been fooled by those he knows in RL lately in WW). A baddie saying for the sake of appearing?

Brinn I need to think one more time... back soon.

[Nogrod]

Okay. After a second look Brinn looks better to me even though I can't shake that odd feeling about her first post away. Somehow it just feels wrong and foul. I'm just unable to say why. Anyway she seems to be involved and reasonable as well so I wouldn't like to see her gone.

That leaves Xyzzy and Shasta as my choices - unless something remarkable happens in half an hour's time.

Xyzzy for being the enigma which should be removed now if we are to do it. For after the next Night we will all start forming theories and think it's too tight a place to try for the blind lynch any more (and then we'll just hold our thumbs and pray for luck that he isn't a baddie).

Shasta not only for only merely appearing - that could be said of Menel and Susie as well - but for appearing in a somewhat suspicious way.


The votes so far:
Legate -> Shasta
Lommy -> Xyzzy (Shasta1, Xyzzy1)

[Macalaure]

I've got a strange feeling about Brinn and I will take a close look at here tomorrow with a lynch and a kill to deduce from. My strange feeling about Lommy is more concrete, but she's too active to be lynched on Day One in such a small village. However, nobody is too active to be lynched from Day Two on.

Shasta is little-seen and more suspicious compared with Menel and Susie. And then there's xyzzy.

Unless something unexpected happens, I will vote one of the two (although this is an invitation for the henchmen to not do anything unexpected now... ah, well)

Let's have another look at Shasta's posts.

[Brinniel]

This is a tough choice. I don't feel ready to vote xyzzy just because he hasn't said anything yet. Perhaps he will speak up tomorrow? I'd like to give him one more chance before eliminating him.

Shasta has said very little to contribute and he seems to hide within his roleplaying. It's not much to go on, but I do sense there's something fishy about him...

++Shasta

*I will second with Lommy on voting to lock up, not lynch. Guilty or innocent, no one deserves to die!

EDIT: X-ed with Mac and Volo

[Macalaure]

I could vote both, Shasta and xyzzy. I know it's bad reasoning, but because I suspect Lommy a little, I would rather not follow her vote. I have a bad feeling there. So...

++Shastanis Althreduin

[Volo]

I have a high mighty feeling that Shasta is innocent and not worth a lynch. Something feels very wrong there in the way he's voted out. I'd rather back up Lommy with lynching Xyzzy (I know what I said a post ago and I still think so, but on the other hand Lommy's reaction is pretty understandable.)

[Volo]

Xd with Nogrod and Mac.

++Xyzzy

++Herding, not killing.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

This is a tough choice. I don't feel ready to vote xyzzy just because he hasn't said anything yet. Perhaps he will speak up tomorrow? I'd like to give him one more chance before eliminating him.

I do find this reasoning either a bit too hopeful or then foul... Trust me Xyzzy rarely comes in and rarely contributes more than one-liners (prove me wrong Xyzzy!) and we will probably not make a blind lynch toMorrow anymore so if he stays alive toDay he will stay alive to the end and then we just need to hope that he's no baddie. That's the choice here.

[Nogrod]

If we had better numbers I'd be ready for a double lynch indeed but in this situation I'd rather not have it.

Anyone else around to try for Xyzzy or do we just trust our luck?

[Nogrod]

Here we go then...

++ Shasta

[Volo]

In character-meter, the higher the more useless talk compared to useful talk:

Shasta: 9/10
Only one half-seriously sentence regarding the game.

Nogrod: 7/10
Lots of talk, long posts, some political fuss, the obvious.
He actually makes me feel safer about him in his last post (#26) (meter 8->7).
Just talk with less words, ok? If you want cheese, say cheese and be done with it.

Brinniel: 6/10
She adds little new, but feels rather innocent the way she says it.

Legate: 7/10
Lots of talk. All I see him do is say something rather contradictory about Lommy and go for Shasta.

Lommy: 7/10
Well, too many mushrooms but she has been rather helpful in pointing out the seriousness level of the politicians. Seems genuine, except for her vote... I always feel that she always votes Xyzzy when he's around, don't dare turn it into a joke you can use as an excuse!

Mac: 7/10
A flood of banter in first two posts and then some better points.

Menel: 9/10
Nothing much, but I'm ready to grant him his wish and not vote for him.

Volo: 10/10
:S I've made the least sense of all in my previous post. Well, I hope to mend that now.

Xd with Mac

[Nogrod]

The thing I find suspicious with Shasta is that it looks like he tries to appear as someone who makes a valid point / tries to be helpful by pointing out something while the thing he asks has already been answered ie. Lommy did explain her reason already in the post where Shasta refers to.

So it looks quite artifical, something a baddie could be inclined to do to appear involved.

It's not much though but enough to make me waver between him and Xyzzy.

Any ideas?