WWXXXV: Werewolves among the Wolf-men

[Macalaure]

"Oh, what woes did this night bring with it. Three of us lie dead, but at least one of them in death now is revealed as one of our enemies.

But, o gruesome fate, here now lies Túrin, son of Húrin, mastered by grief over his sister. Túrin, dear, like a son you were to me and like a brother also."

With these words, Macalaure cast away his cloak and stood before the outlaws revealed in his true shape. But no longer was it Macalaure the outlaw, but Beleg Strongbow, once Captain of the Marchwardens of Doriath, now Captain of Dor Cúarthol, wise, strong and beautiful, but also aweful to behold in this hour of his grief and wrath.

"One of these foul creatures still is among us and we shall lynch it today or we shall likely meet our doom as well."

He looked deep into the eyes of everybody, but only one was able to return his sharp glance.

"Of this elderly lady alone I know that she truly is on our side, for I protected her in the same night that some Andróg wickedly stole my bow. Stand up, Rikae, and let us judge what is to be done. The Guy who be short and Gil-Galad will now surely vote for each other, unless they be foolish and cannot tell apart an Elf from a Wolf. But we now must counsel each other and exchange wise words to uncover the truth about these two outlaws, for one of them is not what he claims he is.

Unfortunately, even the Fair Folk is restrained by the need for sleep and Lórien's gardens now call for me to wander within them in my dreams."

[Rikae]

Rikae stood up, and the others noticed that she seemed no longer bent with age; in fact, she appeared surprisingly tall for an old woman. She answered the elf in a husky voice.
"Phfff!
I know who you are, Beleg, though I don't know what you are doing awake so early! But I suppose it's easier to get a good night's rest when you're not busy fending off wolves -"
at these words, Rikae pulled Beleg's bow from under her cloak. The androgenously attired Androg gave a hearty laugh. He contined...
"the way I see it, we have a 75% probability of survival now. We must choose to lynch either Gil or Guy, of course - I suggest Gil, because I can't stand the thought of being defeated by someone who acted so blatently wolfish - but if we choose wrong, we still have a chance. I can protect either of us tonght - I'll flip a coin to decide - and if the remaining wolf misses the kill...again...we can lynch him tomorrow."

Androg rubbed his hands together in wicked glee.

"What do you think of those odds, Guy?"

[the guy who be short]

Guy awoke and looked around. He was at first depressed by the bloodshed, but this quickly changed into happiness when he realised that not only was one wolf dead; but two innocents had also revealed themselves.

"Well, I think the Night brings more good news than bad; with two gifteds and one wolf I think the odds are, in fact, brilliant. You're right, Rikae, there's a 75% chance of victory now, from an objective point of view. It's 100% from mine.

However, as one of the two suspects, I think it would hardly be fitting for me to analyse everything Lhuna, Gil-Galad and I have said. I leave this to Mac, who enjoys that kinda thing, and wonder why I have woken up so early this morning."

He yawned.

"Obviously, as you say, I shall vote for Gil-Galad, who was my second suspect last night and whose behaviour I find very odd and befitting a wolf.

++GIL-GALAD

And the village is now in your hands, Mac & Rikae. Vote well."

He bowed and lay down to have a nap.

[Macalaure]

"Turin spent the night rather productive before he was taken from us, for which I am glad. It eases my work today greatly. Our main suspects were Lhuna and the Guy. We picked Lhuna over the Guy because we thought he might be Nienor. Guy was also Turin's hunt on the first two nights.

The two never seriously suspected the other, except when Lhuna said she thought one wolf among Guy and Nogrod, but that might have been just to justify her vote for Noggie.

But how could Guy and Lhuna miss that one kill? I don't know. You could as well ask how Lhuna could miss the kill on her own (with Gil being absent). They shall tell us once they're dead.

It speaks against Lhuna and Gil that Lhuna was slightly trying to further the lynching of Gil on Day Two, while her "I advise you not to be too jumpy, though, or I for one might forgo my previous assumption and contemplate on having you lynched." yesterday speaks for it.

And that is really all that can be said about the two.

Rikae, you said:
"I suggest Gil, because I can't stand the thought of being defeated by someone who acted so blatently wolfish"
I do not see him soo blatantly wolvish. In fact, I couldn't stand the idea of being defeated by the Wolf who be short just because of Gil's little participation (no offense, Gil. I know it's not entirely your fault).

Just why do I not get the impression that Guy's happiness of late is honest? Indeed, it would be 100% from your point of view - unless Rikae and I do something stupid and lynch you! Did you not wish to say something to avert that? Did you not wish to tell us why Gil is far more wolvish than you are and more likely to be a couple with Lhuna?

Vote well? I'm inclined not to - from your point of view."

[the guy who be short]

Guy awoke as Mac asked him questions and poked him with Rikae's stick.

"I'm awake, I'm awake...

You want to know why I think Gil is wolvish. This has already been said several times, and so I will simply reiterate the points.

1) The uncommon talkativeness which seems to imply an extra effort to stay alive.

2) The no-kill on Night 3 fits Gil's profile as he was away.

3) The odd behaviour with Brinniel yesterday.

You say I never seriously suspected Lhuna, but the same can be said of my attitude towards Brinn, Rikae, and you (Mac). I think this is hardly suspicious when I had what I felt were much more suspicious targets around and limited time.

I also don't get your maths. Knowing I'm innocent, I know 100% that Gil is a wolf. If I were a wolf and you voted for Gil, though, I would only have a 50% chance of success as Rikae would protect one of you.

Obviously I'd prefer you to vote for Gil and end everything today for certain. However, if you lynch me, you still have a 50% chance of success, so all is not completely lost. Therefore, if you do choose to do that, I'll grudgingly accept it.

Depending on how sedated I am afterwards, I think that's it from me. Goodbye."

[Rikae]

"Beleg, while being killed by Guy because of Gil's nonparticipation would be bad, wouldn't it be worse to let Gil win through nothing but jokes and defensiveness?
Guy, you'll note that Beleg is no longer a gifted; he's been downgraded"... Androg winked and held the bow aloft ... "yes, Beleg; if you had only spoken more cautiously that first day, I might not have seen through you.
You have been wrong in all your suspicions thus far; why should I listen now? I did before, for fear of lynching Turin, but now I will think for myself.

I think it would be wise to recall the things Lhuna said about each of these men, and they about her. Good thing I have a photographic memory...so, the first two days, then:

Lhuna on Gil:

-"But as of yet, there is nothing to scrutinise - unless we make a big deal out of Gil's glibness."

This seems odd to me, because it simutaneously sounds as though she is acknowledgning Gil's oddness, while making it appear insignificant.

-No mention in her second speech.

-"Gil - again, he's too glib to be in this serious situation we are now in. But a voice in my head says that this is how he normally is, and it would be foolish to kill him for this reason alone. He bears close watching in the next Days, though."

More excuses.

-"I need some time alone to think, but for now I leave you with this. Gil-galad," he looked towards the man, and just as she suspected he was fast asleep, "as he gave the first vote for Shasta, said this: 'rest in peace my lad, though for the first couple of days, many innocents will probably be lost.' Was this a slip that he knew he was innocent? I could have misunderstood him, but that's my interpretation of it."

This, however, looks like unnecessary and ill-founded scapegoating.

-(To me)"It is normal, I guess, that we understand the same statement differently, for we are two different people. For my part, I sensed an offhandedness in Gil's manner of speaking that I found unsettling. Each to her own. But I will not pay much heed to it for now, for there could be a lot more revealing words from Gil - or anyone, for that matter - later. I would that he consider our situation more seriously toDay."

Letting Gil off the hook, but then, she's been questioned.

-No mention in next two speeches.

Lhuna on Guy:

-No mention of him in her first speech.

-"I feel rather uncomfortable with tgwbs's vote - I would rather he chose one among those who have already spoken. Rather hasty, it seems to me, and safe, for in the event that xyzzy is killed and found innocent, he could hardly be blamed for playing a crucial role in it."

This looks to me like something a wolf would say about an innocent, considering that said vote was clearly not a searious one - Guy based it on Xyzzy's 'sleepiness'.

-No mention in third speech.

"And that's not the only thing: one of Nogrod's primary reasons for suspecting tgwbs, if I understand him right, was that he found the short guy overfriendly. But reminiscing on yesterDay's discussions brings no such thing to mind. The closest I found to an attempt of tgwbs to be friendly with Nogrod was that the former shared a glance with the latter - who had his eyes closed."
and
"It's a one-sided 'relationship,' this between Nogrod and the short guy, but all the same it makes me think if there's more to it than meets the eye. There are a few possibilities. One, they are Turin and Beleg, and this is their way of evading the wolves at Night, for their act casts perilous attention on them during the Day. Two, they are the wolves, and Nogrod seeks to have his comrade lynched, as though by sheer chance or cunning, so he can win us over into believing his innocence, or he can prove his worth. Or three, I am, which I am likely to do, reading too much into this."

-"My suspicion of tgwbs has now diminished, with his explanation for his early vote yesterDay, and the sensible observations he has given toDay. But that thing with all those numbers...it's distracting, whatever it is. I don't know what it is, but if I did, I'm quite sure I would be hating it."

-No mention in next speech.


Gil on Lhuna:

No mention in first three speeches.

Guy on Lhuna:

-No mention of her in his first four speeches.

-(to Nogrod) "Your fellow wolf must, I feel, be in the Rikae-Lhuna-Mith-Brinn group. Of these, Brinn seems unlikely as you voted together yesterday, so the first three are most likely to be your fellow, in my view."

Putting a wolf in a group of not only innocents, but gifteds...? The fact that all four had special roles actually makes this look more sincere, to me -gifteds give off a "strange" vibe similar to that of wolves.

-No mention in next three speeches.

-"However," he continued, "I agree with what you have said concerning the Lhunatic. It is never conducive to ponder the gifteds aloud, and you are right to say she should know better. This gives me reason to worry about her"

-Likewise, I do not trust Lhuna for her debating the gifteds.

These feel like very low-grade suspicion, more of a going-with-the-flow.




Now I need to catch my breath, but I'll be back shortly to finish this list."

[Macalaure]

"Unfortunately, sleep seems to have an unnatural hold over me today. I do not think I can keep myself awake any longer, nor that I will wake again before the night comes. I shall therefore give my vote right now.

Gil has not been awake today and there is little hope he will. Personally, I think the Guy is more suspicious than Gil. But, if I am wrong and Gil is indeed evil, there might be a chance that he, unlike the Guy, will also sleep all through the night, which gives us a slightly higher chance to survive.

Since I do not count on Gil waking up again today, I think I can vote the Guy without too much of a risk, and thus leave the final decision to you, Rikae, whom I trust.

++the guy who be short"