WWXXXV: Werewolves among the Wolf-men

[Nogrod]

"Oh, I do apologise for one thing guy. It is this Androg-thing. I thought you were saying I would use that Androg-stuff to ground my vote-to-come on you toDay, not that I would use it to explain my earlier vote... Sorry. That was a misunderstanding. But then again I see no reason why I should come up with multiple different versions of my reasons to explain my vote on you on Day1 as I had already given my reason. For honest people the actual reason is enough. If it's not understood one may have to explain it a few times but that normally suffices - as I thought it had done in the end. So that kind of interpretation of your point didn't even cross my mind.

But for the subject you raised I see no reason to make apologies for. I still think you were up to no good when you suddenly - and quite heavily jumped on me with phrases like:

I feel quite certain of your wolvery, and:
so I must conclude that you are a wolf, trying to mislead and gain trust as early as possible

Not to mention that the first of these "conclusions" was based on:

I do not know why you are so sure that there is a wolf among those who contribute so little, Nogrod. However, what you say is true: if these people are wolves, their silence means they will likely live a long time, avoiding suspicion.

Which I find especially curious because in the end of that speech you deducted that:

this would lead me to believe that the quiet trio are in fact innocents

And before and after that you have been possibly even louder in calling the lynching of the quiets and also voted for a quiet member both Days... So you used them just as a tool for your argument at that spot when you tried to get me lynched? And as no one took your bait you fell back to the "lynch the quiets" tactics - from which you're coming back to me again, right?


If you would be innocent, why would you tie these two things together? Either I'm innocent and the quiets are not or then vice versa? It sounds very much like a wolf who knows we all are innocents! And that should make me think all this again myself...

So maybe you've read my concerns (or thought about them open yourself) that Turín maybe a quiet one and thence lynching any quiets is good for you, and as you know my innocence I should be dealt with as well as I'm on your trail?

Not the worst theory I've had these past Days.


Oh and the second "I must conclude"... It was based on this discussion whether we should lynch someone who will die anyway by the higher forces if we don't have any good suspicions on anyone else:

The same could be achieved if everybody abstained from voting, so nobody was lynched at all. Village numbers could stay high for as long as possible, but in the end the Wolves would consume us all

And that surely is your own fabrication. Not lynching anyone is stupid - see what happened to Xyzzy when he tried that idea... but still you actually came back to it later and accused me of speaking such nonsense.

Now why, comes the question?

Your stuff on my "self-preservation vs. common good" was just plain ridiculous, your trial - that has succeeded very well indeed, hats off to you for that - to engage my time to solely answering your farfetched and self-fabricated points of "mine" and all these twisted arguments you've used to achieve it... Now why?


I know you're an intelligent person and that bothers me. Were you a wolf you wouldn't probably be this bold or this one-track minded... Trying to focus on actively lynching either me or Turín from amongst the quiet might be a good tactics for one wolf if the other one has slipped under everyone's radar. Or maybe my first idea of Androg was right after all and in that case you should not be lynched - if I'm guessing right the function of that role.

This is a hard one. I can't say I trust you to be a wolf but there is something that is wrong and twisted with your speeches and most probably also behind it. It would be quite fun indeed if almost in a row my family's member would catch a wolf of your family. Almost too good to be true?

But let this be the last from me to guy for a while as I need some sleep soon and to have some energy after I wake up to look at some other things as well. For that surely is the thing I'm going to do.

Even if guy is a wolf - which I really am undecided right now as fex. I think guy would not waste a kill during the Night so easily and thence the question of Gil and Izzy comes to haunt me again - there is anyway two wolves around and we should have some new ideas. Now this discussion has centered within a very small perimeter leaving many people outside any scrutiny.

Like Lhuna and some others said: we need to look at everyone. And at least under my radar there are more people right now as inside."

Nogrod nodded to those awake outside and went to his bed to have a sleep.

[Nogrod]

Nogrod tried to sleep but the sleep didn't come. His head was too full with differnt thoughts that criss-crossed his mind. Eventually he rose to sit and voiced his mind.

"I think we have an easy solution and a hard one to choose from toDay.

The easy one is that Gil and Izzy are the wolves and Turín indeed is no sleeper as we say but the seer who had been thence "sleeping" ie. seeing dreams. So when we were told that Beleg woke Turín up it only meant to hint that he was a seer - as that same story revealed to us that Beleg is a ranger to guard us. I mean we were never told what their roles were but to help us and revealing both roles would be logical. Revealing one role and just hinting at the laziness of another would sound more improbable...

The hard one is that the hint of Turín's sleepiness actually refers to him being not at the level of his duties and that he's failing us, but that neither of the wolves is Gil or Izzy. That would be something cunning wolves could use to their favour, taking even such drastic measures as to intentionally failing a kill as to make us kill a quiet one eg. lynch Turín and possibly with him Nienor. But that would also mean that our wolves - or at least another one of them would feel her/himself quite secure right now. And that would need setting our minds totally a new.

The hard solution would not be too foolhardy for the wolves. That means they could have thought of this and thence this scenario is possible as well.

If Turín and Nienor die as a pair as I think is probable on the grounds of the hints given to us, the wolves have 50% chance of a jackpot of two innocents killed toDay - one of them possibly the seer - if we lynch a quiet one.

And even if we managed to choose the "non-Turín" quiet toDay, the chance the next Day is pretty favourable to them as it would be 2 against 5 or 4, and with two votes they could do a lot in voting as most of us seem to have different views about the possible culprits. And they would have the chance of either lynching by Day or killing by Night two of us if Nienor or Turín is hit with those four trials (toDay, toNight, nextDay, nextNight - so a host of possibilities to hit them and lesser chances of not hitting them).

On the next Day we would probably be lost - if we weren't lost already by then. They could capitulate together any bad vote. One innocent voting another innocent would basically lead to the two wolves securing their win.

So not a bad plan indeed. Why do you guy say the wolves wouldn't skip a kill? In this situation it seems like a very good move.

If the harder solution is right I just hope the wolves have counted this far that Turín is a quiet one and that he actually isn't, as the story we were told on the first Night here could indicate also that he's just a seer dreaming his dream... and not a sleepy-gifted.

And happily even this at least to me newly discovered uncertainty - if the wolves haven't thought of this already - might make also them a bit more worried and tense about their situation.

It's coming more and more down to Turín and Beleg now. Depending on their feeling of security, their knowledge and the direness of our lynching-situation toDay from their perspective they should be really thoughtful as to when to reveal their knowledge. Hopefully not toDay but toMorrow is the last Day for it.

And let's hope Turín's sleep meant he is a seer and not that he is failing us. Indeed I feel more comfortable with this interpretation right now.

But the hard choice is selecting which of these solutions is the right one - or is there a third one...

I'll now try to sleep on it at last."

[Isabellkya]

Izzy opened her eyes and rubbed them to expel the last remnants of her slumber. She headed towards the others and took a seat. She reflected on the events of yesterDay and yesterNight. She shook her head at the ruthless slaughter of the innocent outlaw Xyzzy, as well as thanked good fortune for bringing yet another kill-free evening. She turned her gaze towards the elderly woman and found her sleeping; so she spoke to the air.

'Rikae, it is a bit suspicious that you would want to put my head on the chopping block for my ancestors; however you fail to do the same for the others who have similar ancestors. Whether that is because your eye sight is failing, or you are a fellow wolf and would rather not call attention to them; I have not yet decided. I also find your almost last minute vote switch a bit eyebrow raising. When it comes to the wolves, they typically don't care who gets the chop, as long as it is not one of their own. I find that those with purer hearts than this group of outlaws; tend to stick with their original decisions. I question why you changed, when you had thought me so suspicious and wolfish.
Some of the outlaws in this place are so filled with wind, by the time a person has collected her thoughts; the day is already done''

Izzy turned her gaze towards the old man.

'Nogrod; I get the feeling of jumpiness with you. I can't put my finger on it, but it just seems to me that you jump about in your posts and reasonings for things. I as well raise my eyebrow in your direction for theses tangents which you seem to get wrapped up in frequently. The downside of focusing on the silent ones for the chopping block, is that you forget about the vocal ones who will manipulate you in your decisions. I as well agree with Guy; in that the wolves wasting a kill to trick our group would just be a waste of a kill; and take them longer to try and make lunch meat out of us all'

She continued her circling gaze and came upon Lhuna who was sleeping, and thus spoke to the air once more.

'I agree with your thoughts on the behaviors of wolves. It would be too obvious of a strategy for a wolf to hide amongst the quiet. I think in this particular group, the wolves would be forced to contribute, as it has become a habit to look upon the silent ones, or sleepers first and fore most. I think the wolves would risk too much by trying to hide and be silent.'

'Macalaure, unless I have been mistaken, are you not yourself on the borderline of the 'silent' ones? You have either said very little, or your speeches have been of little substance.'

'Guy, you worry me a bit. Your sudden jump from a heated debate with Nogrod, to being almost chummy with him, it worries me.'


Izzy rose from the rock and stretched. She turned and headed towards the pond.

[Lhunardawen]

Tickled by the straw caught up in her once again tangled hair - it couldn't seem to stay untangled for a long time - Lhuna stirred, but kept her eyes closed and remained lying down. She was quite afraid to find out that another Outlaw had died the Night before, and wanted to delay that knowledge for as long as possible. But she caught from snippets of conversation around her that no one had been killed. No one! She couldn't quite believe it. She decided that she was probably dreaming, and fell promptly back to sleep.

Later she got up, brushed the straw from her hair with her fingers, and looked around. It wasn't a dream! She mused aloud: "But how can this be? Can't the wolves feel frightened that the odds are against them so far as numbers are concerned? There is sense in the theory that this is a strategy to get the quiets lynched...but no one would be this foolhardy a few Days into this situation! Surely the wolves would find their strength in dwindling numbers of foes, although it risks their being exposed more easily...

Think about it. Their choice of kills could be manipulated to pin the blame on the quiets if they are so cunning. It would be a waste of opportunity not to kill someone when they have the chance! That leads me to wonder if we really have inexperienced wolves among us...or something happened last Night that they did not expect, and so prevented them from making a kill."

She sat down, overwhelmed with gratefulness that no one had died, and disbelief for the same reason. She stayed quiet as she let her thoughts organise themselves into words.

[Brinniel]

Brinn listened carefully on what the others had to say. She shivered and wrapped her cloak tightly around her arms, for today was cloudy and chilly.

"We cannot say for sure what the events (or lack of) really mean. It could be a tricksy strategy of some cunning wolves, or it could simply be a mistake on their part...it is difficult to say. But if there is a quiet wolf, I have my doubts that there is more than one. tgwbs says the chances the wolves would strategically do a no-kill is unlikely, but I disagree. Yes, it would be a risky move on their part, but I think some of the reasoning Nogrod has behind this makes sense. We cannot completely eliminate the possibility.

"And guy, I do not think you started a bandwagon with your vote...that came much later after xyzzy made his odd statement. Though, that doesn't make you not suspicious. If anything, as a wolf, you could've voted him thinking he wouldn't be lynched, and try to get away with it using the simple reasoning that he is too silent and under the radar. And while I don't feel nearly as confident of your wolfishness as I did yesterDay, something about what you say makes me uneasy....call it a gut feeling if you may.

"Of Nogrod, I'm not sure what to think. For some time, he's been coming up with so many different theories and solutions. Either he is an innocent who is honestly trying to do what he can to help, or he is wolf attempting to confuse us all..."

Brinn paused to stretch and rub her neck, which remained stiff from the previous night's sleep. After a moment, she continued:

"I know we're thinking of the possibility that a wolf could be among the silent ones, but if we choose to lynch one of them, I will not support the lynching of Gil-Galad. This is the second Day he has been gone, and currently I do not see enough evidence pointing to his guilt. If we were to lynch him, we would find little clues, as he has said so little.

"As for Izzy (who does not seem quite so silent of late), she no longer seems nearly as innocent to me as she did yesterDay. I do not like her defensive jump on Rikae. Plus, she claims Mac is on the borderline of silent when he has spoken twelve times against her five, most of which have more content (and votes) than what she has given."

Then Brinn stopped talking and began to draw in the dirt, this time with her finger. After a few minutes, she looked up.

"Here...I have made up another record of yesterDay's votes. I don't know how much help it will be, but hopefully we can make something out of it...we have little else to go off of:

Rikae: ++Izzy (Izzy: 1)
tgwbs: ++xyzzy (Izzy: 1, xyzzy: 1)
Lhuna: ++Nogrod (Izzy: 1, xyzzy: 1, Nogrod: 1)
Rikae: --Izzy (xyzzy: 1, Nogrod: 1)
Rikae: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 2, Nogrod: 1)
Mac: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 3, Nogrod: 1)
Brinn: ++tgwbs (xyzzy: 3, Nogrod: 1, tgwbs: 1)
Nogrod: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 4, Nogrod: 1, tgwbs: 1)
Mithalwen: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 5, Nogrod: 1, tgwbs: 1)

Didn't vote: xyzzy, Izzy, Gil-Galad

"Based on votes alone, I would say Nogrod and Mithalwen are most suspicious for safely jumping on the bandwagon at the last minute..."

EDIT: X-ed with Lhuna

[Lhunardawen]

Lhuna read the writings of the newly revealed girl, Brinn, as they came.

"You make a good point," she finally said when the latter was done, "about Nogrod and Mith. This makes Nogrod all the more suspicious to me than he already is. As for Mith...we have to consider that she could not fully participate in our discussions, thus her rather hasty vote. But that does not rid her of its possible consequences."

She stood up and stretched, and, as she was wont to do, started walking around.

"It's been a couple of Days, and Gil's absence is now making me uneasy. I know he has valid reasons for leaving, but all the same...we need him here. Not just to help us discover who the wolves are, but also to scrutinise him and learn if he is or is not one of them. His prolonged absence casts doubt on the possibility that he is a wolf, but he needs not be here if his partner is. I curse him to a swift and dreadful death if he actually is a lycanthrope.

"Another thing that worries me is this spectacle between Nogrod and tgwbs. I am now almost certain that one of them is a wolf - or both of them, I certainly wouldn't put it past them. I had been uneasy of Nogrod yesterDay, and I remain so, and it is strange behaviour that tgwbs should also place himself in the limelight..."

Lhuna scratched her head and frowned.

"It's confusing. They're both being hasty, Nogrod feels furry, but he makes a good point about tgwbs's inconsistency. I can't make a conclusion now, but they're both high on my list, and I'll need to see the rest of this, as well as the others.

"Brinn's now no longer as suspicious to me as before, having heard more from her - in my dreams, it seems - after I fell asleep last Night. As for the rest, not much has changed since yesterDay, but that's probably because I haven't spent enough time recalling their statements. I particularly wish to hear more from Mith toDay."

She strolled again towards the pool outside to be alone with her thoughts, but all the same trying to keep a keen ear on the voices inside the house.

[Macalaure]

Macalaure was puzzled to see everybody alive when he woke up. Has some brave man stopped the wolves another time? he wondered, but then it came to his mind that nobody saw or heard anything and it seemed clear that the wolves have been idle this night. For what reason?, he asked himself.

"It's possible that the wolves forwent their kill out of sleepiness, which would point towards Isabellkya and Gil. However, I cannot imagine that these two are exactly our two wolves. The most probable scenario would, to me, be, that one of the wolves is one of these two and the other is somebody else, whom forces from outside the circles of this world kept from pursuing his gruesome goal.

It's possible that the wolves forwent their kill due to some wicked plan. Who would be so reckless as to solely rely on his ability to mislead everybody into thinking him innocent with no real solid evidence present? This could only be an outlaw who trusts himself to twist everybody else's mind, for which he would have to be a quite vocal and confident one and one who is listened to by most."

After having said this, he gave Nogrod and Guy a suspicious look.

"Theories, theories, theories. Too much of them." he said, while looking at Nogrod, and he sighed audibly.

"This talk of Andróg and Saeros is interesting, though. As we know, Beleg's bow was taken yesterday. Might that thief be Andróg? Was it Saeros' task to steal Túrin's sword (I don't see Túrin as a seer, but very clearly as a hunter)? Might there even be Nellas among us, silently spying on us at night, when we are unaware? And if Andróg owns the mighty Belthronding now, does he know how to put it to a proper use?

(ooc, due to lack of metaphorical skill: )Concerning sleepy Túrin, I think that was purely for narrational purpose. If indeed he had been idle the Gods would not have mentioned it, because it obviously took no effect. I fail to see why the character of Túrin should be a seer."

[Nogrod]

Nogrod was getting back to his senses. Even if he had slept clearly to the afternoon only a few people had spoken. Now this is never going to work if you people imitate Gil this passionately...

"I have a few short comments, then I have to take some more sleep... but after that I'm going to make a real effort with you others.

Some people here have voiced somewhat astonishing ideas about people's voting that I just can't bear listening anymore. And the danger is that if no one corrects those thoughts someone might actually base one's vote on that kind of obviously faulty speculation.

So Izzy, you suspected Rikae because she changed her vote and said:

When it comes to the wolves, they typically don't care who gets the chop, as long as it is not one of their own. I find that those with purer hearts than this group of outlaws; tend to stick with their original decisions.

The first sentence is absolutely right but how can you then deduce the second one from it as it should be the opposite? The wolves can look consistent and stick with their decisions as they know what they're doing unlike us. It is a mark of an innocent villager thinking for the common good to be able to change one's mind when one realises that one is possibly doing a mistake. An innocent should think first and foremost who is s/he helping to lynch in concrete terms and whether it is a good decision or not - not about showing a consistent record of sticking to whatever original decision which may have been done without some knowledge s/he has gained later or which has turned out to look bad after some additional thinking."

Then Nogrod turned to Lhuna and looked at her for a while just wondering about her and what she might be up to. Finally he addressed her.

"No Lhuna, Brinn's last one was not a good point. Indeed she didn't even offer it as a point in a way I interpret you are trying to twist it... and if my memory serves me right this was not the first time you're happy to jump on repeating quite bad points if they further your personal goals, right? I don't know but I will sure check this out later toDay.

Tell me Lhuna, were you an honourable person who would not be sleeping around the deadline, wouldn't you like to hear all before you make your vote? Wouldn't it be your duty to not vote hastily but to see what is going on and try to help things turn out the good way? How would you as innocent have voted during those last minutes yourself? If you had voted for someone else than Xyzzy who was already dead at that point I'm sure there would be a throng of voices to ask you now "why you did you make such a throw-away vote, aren't you lupine then?" Trust me, I got quite enough of that yesterDay... But had you then decided to just join the waggon, there would be your kind of people asking now whether that deepens their suspicions of you because you voted so safe?

So what kind of vote in the end of yesterDay would not be suspicious to your eyes?

Aren't you using double-standards here by first stating myself to be suspicious because I didn't vote for someone who was about to be lynched (Day1 voting) and now (Day2 voting) because I did vote for the one who was getting lynched?"

Before withdrawing to his blanket he glanced at Macalaure and smiled.

"Oh Mac, you can't be serious with that proposal... Just look at me and my old bones and listen to this discussion around us. So you say I might be one who is feeling confident to twist everyone's mind into my favour while in reality everything I say seem to get half the people suspecting me.

Hah..."

Nogrod turned around under his blanket.

"This lack of arguments is killing us..." he mumbled half-sleeping.

[Rikae]

Rikae finally was awakend by the voices of the others. She tended to sleep longer, almost as if some part of her was in a place where morning came later...

"As I see it, there are 3 possibilities:
1. The thief used the bow to protect the wolves' intended victim.
You all claim that this did not hoppen because there is no sign of struggle; but it could be that someone wants us to remain uncertain about the role of the thief..."
Rikae looked at the sky accusingly...
"In that case, the wolves are likely inexperienced, and/or Beleg and the thief quite astute.
2. The wolves killed no one for strategic reasons. If this is the case, it points very strongly toward Nogrod; it's just the sort of scheme he would devise, and, as Macalaure points out, he is probably confident in his ability to control us with words alone.
3. The wolves missed the kill by accident.
This is quite likely, especially considering this; I don't know about you others, but I awoke in the middle of the night to an unnatural silence; followed by a brief but terrible storm that left everything in disarray. It washed away my emerald necklace, that I thought was safe in my bag (it was a gift from my dearest friends, and I'm quite sad to lose it); perhaps this storm also prevented the wolves from making their kill?
Regarding our protectors, I don't know how much help Beleg is to us without his bow, but, at the very least, he knows the identities of Turin and the innocent he successfully protected. If we continue to have no leads, that information could be useful, especially if we still have a ranger of sorts and Turin is a hunter. Three known innocents will give us a 1/3 chance of lynching a wolf today.
In addition, I'd just like to say that something in Lhuna's words feels deceptive; but I will have to think about it further."

[the guy who be short]

"If it's arguments you want, old man," Guy said to Nogrod, "you shall certainly get them!

First and foremost, I find the idea that the wolves could intentionally forgo a kill absurd. You say the wolves may have done this to make us lynch a quiet person, and I find this ridiculous. If they really want to get a quiet person, they can kill them in the night! Your theory is convoluted and... weird, frankly.

Indeed, you seem to spew too many distracting theories - this idea of Turin being a seer, for example. To me, and many others it seems, they are not only distracting, but don't seem to make much sense.

I acknowledge the misunderstanding about your Day 1 vote. You say you have explained it once already, and this is true. To me, however, it still seems like a wolvish plan to make you seem innocent.

Again, you repeat the accusation that I was trying to create a bandwagon against you with my accusations of you, ignoring the fact that I changed my mind about you before anybody else (other than Rikae, who supported my suspicion of you!) had joined us, thus proving that it was not my intent to create a bandwagon.

You accuse me for changing my mind about you. There was nothing suspicious about this: I presented my points which I believed pointed to your guilt. You answered them satisfactorily. I therefore changed my view about you. You youself say "It is a mark of an innocent villager thinking for the common good to be able to change one's mind when one realises that one is possibly doing a mistake" - but apparently, not in my case, eh?

I believed the quiet to be wolvish "before and after" the period of accusing you (before toDay that is), but not during the time when I suspected you, because you tried to put pressure on the quiets. This is perfectly reasonable. I don't see why this would point to my guilt in any way.

You claim that I said that you suggested not to lynch anybody. Anybody going over what I have said will find that I made no such claim, which means that once more you are seeking to misrepresent me. And, it seems, you are trying to distract the whole village again by restarting the whole lynching-somebody-doomed-to-die-anyway debate when it has no relevance. I will say it once more: your view is wrong. It is a complete waste to lynch somebody who would die anyway, which, I said, is essentially the same as lynching nobody! The statistics prove that I am right."

Guy took a deep breath, realising he had been getting ever so slightly heated.

"I feel that last night, you and your ally - who may or may not be quiet - could not kill due to the disturbance you experienced in the spiritual world. Your outlandish claim that the wolves chose to forgo a kill is simply an attempt to confuse us.

You are, dear Nogrod, oh so wolvish, slippery, contradictory and distracting. And so, without further ado,

++NOGROD

And now I shall concentrate on trying to find our second wolf.

Oh, and Brinn, I fear you misunderstood what Nogrod accused me of. He claimed my suspicion of him was an attempt to start a bandwagon against him, Nogrod, and nothing to do with my vote for xyzzy. I have, however, shown this to be a product of his own wolvish mind."

Guy settled back into his seat and took a sip from his flask, satisfied.