WWXXXV: Werewolves among the Wolf-men

[Nogrod]

Nogrod opened his eyes at last and yawned.

"I've been doing some thinking myself too and would like to share some of my latest thoughts.

Yes, I was pretty convinced in the morning that the wolves had just made a total blunder and therefore considered them to be somewhat short-sighted. Although dear Lhuna it's not a bold assumption from someone of my family to expect to be killed in the first Night though. I'm quite used to been dreamt or killed pretty early so I kind of take it for granted and basically try to fight against that destiny by being controversial enough if I'm innocent or smooth enough if I'm a baddie.

I might add that if my memory serves me right there was basically no suspicions on me on Day1 and and I admittedly was the loudest and all around. So someone whom the wolves would like to get rid of sooner than later. Adding these two things (my family's past exeriences + the Day1 non-suspicion) together made me think I was an obvious choice for both Beleg and the wolves.

But then I started to think back on other possibilities as well as I was getting afraid that I had been too hasty. And sure: if Lhuna or Rikae are both innocents - but neither is Beleg or Turín - then they might have been the choices of the last Night as well. That being the case there was some luck in last Night's protection and consequently our wolves - or at least another one of them is much more cunning I have allowed her/him to be so far.

Yes. I think it is important to see all the possibilities. Although here I think these three people are the ones between whom the choices were made last Night. The wolves have no reason to kill the silents and Beleg has no reason to protect one either - unless he protects a silent Turín but that surely was not last Night. Mac and tgwbs were suspected enough for the wolves to be happy to wait and see whether they could be lynched later.

Beleg knows the answer but he should obviously remain silent about it for the time being. I hope he himself will make the most out of his information."

Nogrod rose up and took a little walk to the pond.

"I'll just have a drink and will be back soon enough."

[Lhunardawen]

Lhuna lightly chuckled. "Maybe you shouldn't have told us your survival strategy...your descendants will not be helped by that.

Just loud enough for Nogrod to hear, she added: "I think the wolves won't necessarily want to kill the loudest first, as they're ones who could quite easily get into trouble. And you still do not comfort me."

[Mithalwen]

"I do not believe that our survival to this day is based on fluke. I believe that our foes are cunning and our protectors astute. I fear that they may be prevented from protecting the same person twice running so that the life saved is but for another day. Given that our ordeal is likely to be of short duration, I think it is likely that the wolves decided to forgo a tactical assault and went for an obvious target. If the fate of the siblings is linked as Nogrod suggests - the possibility of a killing two bird withone stone may have counterbalanced the desire for a certain kill.

Also, if, as I suspect, there is at least one wolf who is an active participant in our discussions it may well suit them to pursue the quiet by day and the vocal by night. This makes sense to me know but despite the sleep I have had the care of our situation has fuddled my mind. While we will learn more by keeping alive the speakers, I think there is a wolf among them but which?

While it would be unjust to attack someone who is absent seeking for food as I did yesterday, the uncommon loquacity of Master Gil disturbs me"

Mithalwen sat back to ponder anew.

[xyzzy]

Now it would seem none of you know anything of basic statistics!

One of the most remarkable truths about our situation is that we have a much greater chance of winning each day if at the start of the day there are an even number of us alive. Plus, since the moment the wolves overtake us in numbers we've lost, the longer it takes us to reach that point, the better off we are.

I'm going to support not lynching anyone.

[Lhunardawen]

With a big yawn, Lhuna walked over to her corner, wrapped herself in a blanket, and shut her eyes. She was immediately poked by someone.

"What? Oh, I forgot:

++NOGROD

Now let me sleep in peace."

[Macalaure]

"The day is nearing its end and soon the time to cast a vote has come.

His last speech has me feeling better about Nogrod, for the moment. I will therefore not vote for him.

Neither will I vote for Lhuna, who I think is innocent.

I'm not that sure yet of the innocence of Rikae, Brinn and the Guy, but I'm not suspicious of one of these either.

Gil was not able to speak today, otherwise Mîm would have been left unguarded, and Mith is still catching up.

This only leaves Isabellkya and Xyzzy, by the rule "if you're not suspicious of anyone, vote the one you're least unsuspicious of". I will now ponder in silence which of the two I will vote."

[Mithalwen]

"If I were going to vote on pique I would vote Isabellkya. I did not labour hard all day yesterday for people to get food faddy. " Mithalwen said, "it is possible that she is vegetarian not because she loves animals but because she hates plants, and as the Vala Yavanna said, they need protection more..."

[Macalaure]

"Isabellkya's suspicion of our valiant Helm and Bow is probably honest confusion, albeit eye-brow-raising. She was also suspicious of Nogrod for fairer reasons.

Xyzzy was suspicious of Guy and Mith, for retaliatory or non-existant reasons.

Neither of the two has voted so far and Xyzzy even says he would like us to lynch nobody, which is ridiculous.

I'm strongly leaning towards lynching Xyzzy now. What do the others think?"

[Nogrod]

"I'd give Gil the benefit of doubt as he's not here right now.

With the two others I do have a problem. Xyzzy plays less and his style of play annoys me a lot more - and were he a wolf his possible victory would be bad indeed but he looks somewhat sincerish. Isabell contributes a little more but with her I'm much more insecure with.

I'm not sure if I would vote for tgwbs again. That is a possibility. But he might just be Androg whose special mission is to get rid of Beleg - whom he mistook me earlier toDay and then backed off when he realised yhay no bandwaggong was starting. Then he would be counted as an innocent and thence we probably shouldn't kill him. Maybe Shasta wasn't a cobbler but a goodie who wished to kill Turín? That kind of roles could be possible - and looking at things around not totally unbelievable."

[Nogrod]

"I'm still all in for lynching those who seem to offer us little or no help as I don't have a better case against anyone more vocal. But of those people I would say just this if I'm not here toMorrow morning. Be careful of those who look good and nice. They're most often the fanged ones.

So Xyzzy, Isabell or Gil? I do indeed believe that this is not only a vote against non-contributors but also a wolf-hunt. We should just nail the right one.

I'm going to delve in my memories of their participation and will come back soon enough with my thoughts on them.

[Brinniel]

Brinn folded his arms, thinking carefully.

"Lynch no one? Well xyzzy, that is certainly an interesting strategy. But I would have to disagree. Even if we don't lynch anyone, the wolves will still take an innocent down each Night and it won't be long before they overcome us. The only way we can take down a wolf is by lynching them, and while there's always a risk that we may lynch an innocent, we must take our chances.

"With that said, xyzzy's weird new strategy he has come up with makes me think he might be a little more on the innocentish side. After all, if the wolves can get innocents lynched and kill them at Night, the faster they will win. Then again, perhaps xyzzy is a wolf and is afraid that either he or his comrade will be lynched toDay...

"Of everyone here, I find Rikae and Izzy to be likely Innocents, and tgwbs and Nogrod to be most suspicious. Of everyone else, I'm still not sure about.

"The sun sets in a half an hour. And I will be voting for either tgwbs or Nogrod."

EDIT: X-ed from Mac down

[Mithalwen]

"I would hold off on Nogrod, Brinn, TGWBS has set off my alarm bells ...." Mithalwen said casting in her memory .." yes his early attack on Xyzzy - seemed remarkable but why" . The tall woman in grey tried hard ot recall why this had stuck in her memory.

[Brinniel]

"Well Mithalwen, I am leaning more towards voting tgwbs. I've suspected him from the beginning with his vote for xyzzy. Then toDay he votes him again, which I think is a mistake. He bandwagons against Nogrod, and then suddenly changes his mind and says, 'I find Nogrod quite innocent now.' Something about his tone just doesn't seem right, plus his use of statistics only seemed to cause distraction.

"In comparison, Nogrod has at least seemed more reasonable in some points, and if he is actually innocent, he would be a great loss.

"The only thing I am worried about is that my vote may be a waste. After all, it seems that most are interested in voting someone else."

EDIT: X-ed with multiple posts