Werewolf XXXII: The Lost Age

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Check #437 if you already haven't. There's the basic line now...

But according to that, both SPM and Legate are equally good.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

But according to that, both SPM and Legate are equally good.

Yes indeed... I thought if you weren't up to date to see the reason for our choices in the first place...

Rikae: Let's hope the shade knows what to do...

[Nogrod]

... and hopefully everyone has also voted... not just declared a vote here...

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Yes indeed... I thought if you weren't up to date to see the reason for our choices in the first place...

I was semi-up-to-date.

[Volo]

Night 4 began.

Now stop chatting and start doing your hidden stuff.

[Kitanna]

With one vampire down and two to go I figure this is as good a time as any to say this:
I dreamt of Eomer with my first Shade dream. He's a vampire.

[The Saucepan Man]

Kitanna - If you are the Shade, why are you revealing? I mean, if you are, it's all very helpful of you and thank you and all that - but surely it puts you at risk of losing the game?

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Kitanna - If you are the Shade, why are you revealing? I mean, if you are, it's all very helpful of you and thank you and all that - but surely it puts you at risk of losing the game?

It does and I know this, but I may end up following the route of Glirdan soon due to class overload and I'd rather reveal what I know before that happens. I am well aware of the danger I put myself in, but if you trust me you can grab another vampire with the lynch today and I still have at least one night to live and I can try to take down the third vampire tonight.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I hope you all have painful deaths.

I thought it was funny watching you speaking about how difficult things were for you, when you have two guardians and about a million known innocents.

This just seems so familiar...

(And yes, I have given up hope.)

[Boromir88]

Funny how the day I don't vote for Legate he is the one that ends up dying...and I was right all a long.

As luck would have it us villagers have been amazingly fortunate as I was the lynch seer yesterday. I thought it was going to be Esspiem, but the riddle didn't make sense for him and figured out it was Legate, but I wasn't going to give him a license to kill either. So the riddle was:

”Twice lost, but well alive. One of the members of the Fellowship, though not the one with the cross.”

And Legate received 5 votes, which means either Eomer or Glirdan voted for Legate, or someone lied. Plus this means that at least one of the 6 who voted for Esspiem is a vampire...or the shade maybe?

I have too much work today this day, so I can't be around a lot and can't really be on until late tonight. I just wanted to share this information for everyone to mull over. I would be bragging right now that I knew Legate was a vampire, but I can't really because I didn't vote for him on the day he ended up getting lynched!

[Boromir88]

Well I guess the shade couldn't have lied, because the shade (Kitanna) didn't vote for Esspiem. I see no reason to doubt Kitanna's claim and I say we go after Eomer today...which means based on the voting tally someone who voted for Esspiem has to be a wolf:

Rikae
Boro
Thinlomien
Aganzir
Macalaure
Nogrod

I'm innocent, I still trust Mac and Rikae to be known innocents. Which starts putting some doubt in my head about Nogrod's 'hunter' revelation, or leaves Thinlo and Aganzir as our final vampire. (If Kitanna is the shade...which I'm going to say she is).

[The Saucepan Man]

I am sure that there are answers to be found in the Day 1 voting. I messed up yesterDay in my musings in this regard because I somehow got it into my head that Nogrod had said that he had voted for Celuien and not Rikae.

So, bear with me while I go through it again ...

Stated votes for Rikae: Menel, Gil, Brinniel.

Of those, we know that Menel and Brinniel were innocent. Nogrod said yesterDay that he did not vote for Legate (as stated on Day 1) but instead voted for Rikae.

So we have three known votes for Rikae, possibly four (if Gil is innocent).

Stated votes for Legate: Boro, Mac and Nogrod.

As noted, Nogrod did not vote for Legate. So that’s two known votes for Legate.

Stated votes for Celuien: Lomiella, Eomer, Roa and Aganzir.

That’s one known vote for Celuien. But she must have received at least three to have been lynched instead of Rikae. Eomer, as Lynch Seer, claimed that Celuien had received five votes.

Possibility 1: Eomer is innocent and stated the votes correctly. It follows, in these circumstances, that Lomiella and Aganzir are most likely innocent and that at least one other innocent (probably two, as it is unlikely that Glirdy voted) stated a vote for someone else, but in fact voted for Celuien.

Possibility 2: Eomer is lying. But we know that Celuien must have received at least three votes. One of those was Roa’s Even if Eomer is lying, Lomiella and Aganzir are most likely innocent, since their two votes are the most likely explanation for Celuioen, rather than Rikae, being lynched.

Possibility 2 seems the most likely to me. If so, why would Eomer lie about the number of votes cast for Celuien unless he is a Vampire? In which case, Kitanna is telling the truth and is the Shade. On the other hand, in the unlikely event that Eomer is not a Vampire, Kitanna almost certainly is one.

So, it would seem sensible to lynch either Kitanna or Eomer toDay. My strong inclination is to go with the latter.

Unless I have messed up in my reasoning again - in which case, I should be grateful to have it pointed out.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Boro

...which means based on the voting tally someone who voted for Esspiem has to be a wolf

Not necessarily, Boro. As I see it, there may have been tactical reasons for an innocent to state a vote for me, but instead to actually vote for someone else.

Quite possibly, an innocent pretended to vote for me, but in fact voted for Legate, tying him with me on 5 votes. I am not sure that we know how ties are resolved (I will check), but it may have been on the flip of a coin.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Mac

That's Lommy and Aganzir again!

Mac, I should be very grateful to hear your thoughts on my Day 1 vote reasoning, because they are looking rather innocent to me on the basis of it.

OK, we need to know for sure whether (other than the one instance which Nogrod has identified) any innocents have, at any point, stated a vote for one person, but instead actually voted for another.

I have not.

Subject to that, and assuming that Kitanna is to be believed, the following look likely to be our remaining Vampires:

Rune
Eomer

It would also, of course, be useful to hear from Rikae (although I doubt somehow that she dreamed of me ... ).

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Possibility 2: Eomer is lying. But we know that Celuien must have received at least three votes. One of those was Roa’s Even if Eomer is lying, Lomiella and Aganzir are most likely innocent, since their two votes are the most likely explanation for Celuioen, rather than Rikae, being lynched.

We have Roa's vote, the votes of Lommy and Aganzir, and Eomer's non-vote. In this case Lommy and Aganzir look good because Celuien needed three votes to get lynched.
But there might still be that fifth (or better: fourth) mystery vote. In that case Lommy or Aganzir might very well be our third vampire next to Eomer!

edit: x-ed

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Mac

But there might still be that fifth (or better: fourth) mystery vote. In that case Lommy or Aganzir might very well be our third vampire next to Eomer!

But risky for two Vampires to claim to vote for the same person on the off-chance that one of them would be the Lynch Seer, surely?

As for Rune, it occurs to me that he claimed yesterDay to vote for Legate - which means, if he is a Vampire, that two of those who claimed to vote for me would have had to have been lying.

[Boromir88]

Not necessarily, Boro. As I see it, there may have been tactical reasons for an innocent to state a vote for me, but instead to actually vote for someone else.~Esspiem

That's true, perhaps one of the 6 voters for you really voted for Legate tying it at 5. In which case, I'm pretty sure it is the person who receives the first vote is the one that gets lynched. I remember reading that somewhere but can't find it and I must be off soon.

As far as Rune being the last vampire, Esspiem, I don't think that's very likely. Rune voted for Legate, which means that there would have to be 2 innocents who lied about who they voted for (or just didn't tell us)...that makes it a bit more unlikely. I think there are much better people to go after than Rune, based on the info we have of Rune stating his vote for Legate.

Edit: x-ed with Mac and SpM's last posts.

[Macalaure]

Day Two

Menel voters (7, really 5):
Rune
Lommy
Aganzir
Mac
Espiem
Legate
Nogrod

1 is guilty and dead
1 is a known innocent
1 is very probably an innocent
4 are question marks

So one of the following four is either a wolf or a lying innocent.

Rune (early vote, one could argue a throwaway)
Lommy (Celuien voter on Day One*, even though her vote started the waggon against Menel, it does also look a little like an attempt to spread the votes further. But why should Vamplómien spread the vote when Legate was in danger?)
Aganzir (Celuien voter on Day One*, she got the waggon against Menel going)
Saucepan Man (shameless bandwaggoner, but if he was evil, he could have also thrown his vote away and saved himself from the heat)


*Keeping Eomer's very probable (unless Kitanna lies) guilt in mind, being a Celuien voter is no longer a thing that one would like to be.


Day Three

Unless some innocent filthily lied about his vote, there is at least one wolf among the SPM-voters, maybe even both (we will know more once we know how many votes Legate really received)

SPM-voters: Rikae (seer), Boro (ordo), Lommy, Aganzir, me (ordo), Nogrod (hunter)

That's Lommy and Aganzir again!