Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

And who will be looking at Legate?

Oh, no. I thought I'd come out easy

Originally Posted by Mac

Right now, I fear it doesn't look very well for him. Usually, an analysis is used to determine whether a person is a wolf or not, especially when one claims to not really have looked at the person for a long time. Legate's analysis of Six, on the other hand, seems mainly directed at proving to everybody that Six is guilty. It's very one-sided and biased, not inquiring, but polemic.
No offense, of course.

Well, just read Six's post for yourself. It was not meant to be condemning, I was actually expecting nothing when starting to read it, I had neutral intention, but what I saw was really as if someone beat me over head with something. And I wrote it "on walk", so I just wrote with the impression still bubbling in me. "This is as obvious as a Chinese crawler tractor on a Liverpool horse-race! How could you have not seen that?" Really, read it for yourself. Just the first post really got me.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well, just read Six's post for yourself. It was not meant to be condemning, I was actually expecting nothing when starting to read it, I had neutral intention, but what I saw was really as if someone beat me over head with something. And I wrote it "on walk", so I just wrote with the impression still bubbling in me.

Originally Posted by me

But let's just remember that as it's the late Days of the game already we should also be careful. Lots of what you say makes sense and The Sixth looks very bad indeed - as lots of what I said about Mac made sense and still were not true (possibly... hopefully...). Making a crushing analysis of someone oftentimes makes one himself the most convinced about the rightness of one's cause. I admit I partly fell into that trap yesterDay.

Just remember this.

I thought of asking you Mac to do something on Legate. Good to see you took it voluntarily...

I'm finished with Rikae pretty soon. It has been a hell of a job as I have tried to be balanced and also look at what Roa has said about her (which seems to be proving the best case so far in favour of Rikae).

[Mithalwen]

Hi I am here - see admin life for RL explanation.

I am neither lover or mythomaniac. I hardly think wolf lommy would have made such an effort to get me lynched. She really pulled the wool over my eyes though .. her Glirdan vote seemed reasonable to me but I seee that Anguirel had an apt pupil.....

Well done Roa but it has made what I had expected to be an easy day more difficult.

I need to read and catch up but I do think the "no kill is significant". I am sorry to bang on but we do need to think about Xyzzy ....

[Nogrod]

The waffling Rikae-analysis (looking at her as a wolf / ranger)


D1
#4 Second post of the game, following the pure nonsense style of Glirdan’s first post.

#7 Starts up the famous row with Roa’s first post discussing the gifteds and their revealments.

I'm not sure I like the way Roa advocates mistrust toward revealed gifteds with one breath, and points out that claiming giftedness would be a risky strategy for wolves with the next.

The quoted part at least sounds a bit too odd as an opening move between the hunter and the ranger. I know they should create an air of not be seen as “friends” but still this is an open accusation that could be picked up by others – as it indeed was. Were Rikae a wolf she would know that Roa is not one and thence this kind of spreading “substantial” suspicion on a mighty player would be the thing she should go for.

#33 Decides to reserve her judgement on Glirdy so far with a lot “waffling”. Suspects tgwbs for his suspicions on Roa ("trying to sound helpful without being helpful") and because he suspected Lommy for early voting. Wonders why tgwbs doesn’t wish a hunter to reveal as it would be better for the wolves s/he didn’t.

Now this is a hard one. She manages to defend two known wolves in a same post but what she says about Roa and tgwbs looks like she is in a way defending Roa and she makes a decent point about hunter’s not revealing being better for the wolves (so tgwbs who called for the hunter not to reveal was aiding the wolves’ cause) – although that decency depends on the interpretation of the way the hunter works as there is lots of variation there between the games.

#93 Comes in four minutes before the deadline (saying she had a wrong time in mind) and votes for Glirdan for reasons “mentioned earlier”.

No problem with getting the time wrong... Voting Glirdan and bringing him back to the game (making Glirdy even with Lommy) looks good for Rikae. Although a wolf Rikae would know the value of that kind of track-record too. She could have voted for her seeming top-suspect from earlier tgwbs with some real chances of getting him lynched too.

D2
#117

Since we have no kill today, I'm assuming the wolves' intended victim was protected? Kudos to our ranger - nice work!

Still suspects tgwbs as he voted for Lommy(wolf) with wolf-Glirdy. Finds Brinn even more suspicious because she thought tgwbs “as innocent as” Lommy and had promised not to vote for Glirdy. Thinks The Sixth and myself to be innocent because of our voting.

Now the quoted part really raises some questionmarks. So giving kudos to herself from the job she had not performed? Now this could be excellent rangership – making her look as totally messed up with the role she herself has. Great tactics, I’d say. Then again her suspicions on Brinniel look a bit weird as she accuses tgwbs for voting Lommy and then criticises Brinn for thinking Lommy innocent... Also clearing The Sixth and me just because of our votes looks suspiciously like a “friend-gaining” mission. Overall her relation to Lommy is a bit disconcerting: she defends her all the way but still (like here) likes to stress that we don’t know whether she is innocent.

#125 Tells that she had realised why there wasn’t a kill. Makes a point why a wolf-Nogrod would not have killed his fellow that early in the game (well he might have done, but the point is reasonable).

So not acting the puzzled-one anymore or actually getting to grips with things only now? The problem is that if the latter, then the idea of her “playing” the ignorant (while being the clever ranger) is not more looking less a possibility. Were she a wolf she might have wished to make me feel good not to start suspecting her – but no innocent would wish to jump on someone they honestly thought innocent either...

#190 Informs us (after I requested people to do it) being inclined to vote for tgwbs or Brinniel.

#207 Defends The Sixth against Legate and wants him to be watched more closely in the future. Votes tgwbs. The reason for the vote:

who I've suspected from the beginning, as I've said; there seems to be no better lead (though Roa makes a good point about Gil).

She brings Roa forwards. Now would a ranger bring the hunter forwards this way? Might do, as a way of not being able to resist the urge to kind of confirm the pack they have? I don’t know. I would like to throw a line or two to the other one I would be in cahoots with. Surely.

#216 Answers on overtime Legate’s post attacking Lommy. Says she hasn’t seen a plausible case against Lommy yet.

Edgy with it?

D3
#256 Makes an analysis on Glirdy’s interactions on Day1. Makes two points abvout Roa:

While I wouldn't put sacrificing a fellow wolf beyond Roa (she's said she would do it in this game alone), I somehow doubt wolf-Gil [Glirdan?] would leap on the first hint of a suspicion like that if it was for a fellow wolf. He could just as easily have ignored it.

and

Roa, in spite of her initial suspicion of Glirdan, votes for TGWBS. Slightly suspicious, though she gives several reasons.

Thinks Legate looks the most suspicious, then me.

Looks like she’s learning something from Roa eg. she has started to play the same subdued tactics? But she’s even more subdued with Lommy.

#295 Votes Gil-Galad.

Okay. This has been discussed somewhat already. So she didn’t trust Mac’s revealment. I can’t blame her as I doubted it to begin with also. And if she’s the ranger she had additional reasons to doubt Mac as he (quite wisely) didn’t say Roa is the hunter. So he might have just said she’s innocent (a wolf-Mac would know that) and ranger-Rikae would know there is something missing...


--------------------
Roa on Rikae

#9 Explains her point. Says:

Gifteds, if they are in this game, will just have to be more clever than that.

Pretty neutral. But the quoted thing kind of looks interesting. It’s a question we know no answer that whether the hunter and the ranger were able to PM each other or not. That has not been told to us. Knowledge of that might help us interpreting this one.

#118 Lists what people thought about Glirdan the Day before. Puts Rikae in the “unsure / thinks innocent” –section.

#119

Strictly by placement of the votes, Sixth looks most innocent (especially given Glirdan's reaction), followed by Rikae, then Lommy.

#124 Admits Brinn’s correction to her vote-count that it was Rikae who raised Glirdan even to the lead.

Probably just a mistake? Can’t see any significance here but it somewhat spoiled her point on me...

#126 Reminds Rikae that she should not be so sure about my innocence as backstabbing has happened before.

So the “mother-hunter” yet again correcting her apprentice the ranger? But in this case they would not have a right to PM each other.

#148 Attacking tgwbs she says:

Also, all this "Rikae must definately be innocent" worries me. Yes, she just happens to have the perfect vote placement, but she herself said that she hadn't read through the thread. Maybe she didn't know that a vote for Glirdan would tie him with Lommy. Or perhaps she made a mistake and miscounted the votes, like I did, and thought to do the safest thing (for herself) and vote to lynch Glirdan. (The point I used for Nogrod applies here as well.) I'm not saying she's definately guilty, but we really should know better than discount someone for a mere Day 1 vote. I've only seen her as a wolf once, but I know she's very good at avoiding suspcion.

It might be the careful distancing between the two. It really could be. At least it seems Roa herself never got back to this even as she noted that Rikae is good in avoiding suspicions... But why would she say that to remind all of us of the fact?

#154

Also, if someone with more time could analyze Rikae- people getting ignored for for a vote is just waaay to convenient.

Saying this in earnest? Wishing people to do that indeed? Or making appearances towards the wolves that the two have nothing shared?

#243

And don't think I've forgotten Rikae. I still don't like how people are quick to discount her becuase of vote placement. If she's a wolf, we'll have played right into her hands.

#245 Makes an analysis on Rikae. It’s on the upper part of page7. I’ll only include the conclusion, but feel free to check it.

On the whole, she looks more innocent than guilty. However, there are a few things that irk me, and her reponse to my first post, which was used by a known wolf to attack me, makes me wonder. I can see her laughing evilly as a wolf because very few people suspect her, but I could also see her as a really good innocent. It's a tough call. I never like to exonerate anyone completely (that's how wolves slip by) but I don't think that justifies lynching her toDay. Tomorrow may be a another story.

This really looks like a friend keeping a distance. She made some points in the analysis but still ends up clearing her – with some “waffling”... (sorry Roa, I will be pointing to your waffling for some time to come after this game...)

A few short remarks to follow...

[Nogrod]

Post-analysis thoughts on Rikae.

So either Rikae is a clever Ranger who fumbled a little one or two times but learned quickly from her mate Roa the hunter - and she had terrible hunches, defending Glirdy and Lommy both to their ends.

Or she is a wolf who first tried to jump on Roa but after that hunkered down and started playing more safely and got forwards with the flow mainly: suspecting tgwbs, Brinn and then me (all non-wolves) at the times these three were generally suspected. She also helped her mates to the end - even risking the attention of not voting Lommy yesterDay.

With this I would be totally at lost with her.

Roa's posting kind of clears her though. The way she handled her looks like she was trying to keep a distance but still cover for her.

With this I would say let's not lynch Rikae - unless there will be someone claiming rangership as well. And even thence I might be compelled to start with the lynching of the contestant.

I have promised to visit my mom and the bus goes in a minute. I will be back at least about an hour or two before the deadline...

[Mithalwen]

I would point out that it is tactically better for a ranger not to be on the money in the game discussions. Their priority is different in that they need to stay alive as long as possible and need to tread a fine line between neither being too threatening to the wolves that they are a night kill priority nor being so suspicious that they get lynched.. of course this is why they can get mistaken for low-flying wolves....

[Macalaure]

The Legate of Amon Lanc


Legate is truly eloquent. You really have to read between the lines with him. My comments are the ones in brackets.

#23
goes after Six and, lesser so, at Lommy - sophisticated debates are useless this early (ewww..) - suspects Rikae, Roa, Glirdan a little - adds his opinion role-reveals

#40
thinks the quarrel between Roa and tgwbs speaks for their innocence (I disagree) - says Roa might have a "teacher syndrome" (attempt of downplaying a powerful innocent?)

#48
pessimistic about catching wolves on Day One (already said I didn't like this) - suspects Nogrod because of his summary, even though Nogrod said it will be followed by conclusions (this could indeed have been a mistake by Legate) - suspects Brinniel because of things which are due to her schedule (this whole post really doesn't look good at all)

#57
hesitant about lynching xyzzy (more than hesitant, he gives points for and against, keeping all the options)

#63
takes back suspicion towards Brinn - continues discussing xyzzy - defends tgwbs from a weak point of mine

#72
reads sense into Gil's post and ups his suspicion of Lommy, because he had pondered something similar before - continues on xyzzy

#79
keeps on talking about lynching xyzzy (without giving away any preference about it, he's really sneaky here in fact)

#87
puts his suspicion of Nogrod aside and votes Lommy (at Glirdan 2, Lommy 2, tgwbs 2; this looks extremely innocent, especially since there were only few votes left. However, Lommy voted Glirdan, too. It's possible that the wolves were planning it this way, though this probably takes it too far. Legate's suspicion against Lommy is awfully thin, though on Day One, that's excusable)

#101
Lommy voters (Gil & tgwbs) don't look like wolves to him (fair point. However, if anybody did look like a wolf to him (why emphasise the Lommy voters otherwise?), why didn't he vote that one?)

----

#138
criticises my way of making Mith look innocent (good point, of course) - gives more points on Lommy (why now and not the Day before when they could've done harm to his seeming prime suspect?) - no longer wants to lynch Six because he's a newbie

#146
list of suspects (I'll just pick the interesting ones: ) - very uncertain about tgwbs - unsuspicious of Rikae - Mith seems innocent but watchworthy - will focus on Nogrod, Lommy and me

#159
keeps up suspicion on Lommy - sees connection between her and Six - drops me off his list - Nogrod is either a great wolf or a great innocent (don't say ) - will keep his vote for Lommy back (why does he emphasise this?) - realises the start of the Lommy-waggon

#167
misunderstood something I've said (though, if he's evil, it might have been an attempt to start a side discussion)

#181
confirms my explanation - dislikes meta-debate (I like it that he does, though, obviously, a wolf would think this way, too)

#193
states he has nothing to add (would a wolf dare to admit that?) - nobody said something to change his mind on Lommy (which is true, it went pretty slow during that time)

#201
won't vote for tgwbs because he doesn't seem like a wolf to him (knowing Lommy was evil, I thought so, too)

#209
votes Lommy when all is decided

#212
says even if he had voted earlier, it wouldn't have changed the vote

(it doesn't take a lot of imagination to think Legate held back his vote because he realised Lommy could indeed have been lynched. Though he clearly stated he will vote Lommy, he doesn't try to make others do so, too. He plays his suspicion suspiciously unaggressive. Then again, why didn't he just vote somebody else? Did he fear that after Lommy's death (somewhen later), people would have recognised this?)

----

#236
says what Roa says makes sense, even if she lied (huh?) - says Roa's points make Lommy look good, but doesn't put a lot of weight on them - thinks Roa suspicious because of her thoughts on Brinniel - "I doubt we can read something significant from this one. After all, wolves are wolves and do NOT want to be found." (there's that pessimism again)

#244
debates that debating Brinniel "without actively posting anything" is useless (indeed, indeed) - defends himself from Roa, again about Brinniel - doesn't like to vote Lommy when she can't show up

#258
Gil started to smell -

I do not meddle in "mainstream discussions", because there are many people involved in them and I generally do not want to meddle in their debate unless I have any concern of supporting either of them. I generally rather watch from the outside and wait if someone of them slips or something like that. Because if I focused on that dispute mainly, it would deepen the concentration on this particular problem, which would help to make the village's view quite narrow. And this is not what we need.

(can't believe he just said that, I must've overlooked it previously, otherwise it would've made me very suspicious. Compare to his comments on xyzzy!)

#261
says Gil might've tried to give tgwbs a wolf-hint - will flip a coin between Gil and Nogrod (a joke, though once more, he keeps up all his options)

#265
defends himself against Mith, who didn't like his vote-lingering

#269
quarrels with Mith again

#273
votes Gil - if Gil is innocent, look for Mith (I once vocally urged the lynching of Menelwolfmacil only because he said something like that)

#275
continues quarreling with Mith

#280
if Gil is innocent, Mith probably is a wolf (he said it again! *prepares stones*)

#282
suspected me of being seer before, trusts me therefore

#286
discusses with Nogrod and wants to know my dreams

#291
wants me to take away his comments on Mith (uhmm... no )

-----

#312
calls Nog and Mith 100% innocent (nah!) (he waffles a lot in this post)

#313
seconds Nogrod and likes the ranger to reveal

#314
wants to hear explanation from Rikae (has overlooked her short one)

#320
didn't expect Rikae to be the ranger - xyzzy and Six remain his only options

#322, #323. #326
tirade against Six (where is Legate and what have you done with him? No seriously, where's the eloquent and unagressive Legate gone? These posts look like he's trying to frame Six)

#327
clears xyzzy

#328
jokes - claims his intention was neutral when he started analysing - says he wrote "on walk" (he wrote on walk and was neutral in the beginning... why then does he condemn Six from his first sentence on? He contradicts himself on a very important point. Btw, he reacted on my comment exactly the way I thought he would if he was lupine)


Conclusion

Starts and urges many side discussions (xyzzy, Brinniel, Mith)
His behaviour towards Lommy could be interpreted evilly, but many things can. The important thing is, that it does not clear him of suspicion in any way.
His comment about Gil and Mith is straight out of the "Things wolves have to do if they want to be lynched by Mac"-manual.
His case against Six is far too condemning and one-sided to be innocent.

The chances are high that I will end up voting Legate toDay.


edit: If ever again I volunteer to make a long analysis, please, somebody beat some sense into me...