Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

And then there's a "small" correction about a point which is absolutely uninteresting. A debate about whether Brinn's points are useful or not is pointless (in the truest sense of the word), and bringing it up / keeping it in the spotlight - wolvish! If somebody picks something good up from her, excellent, but this is silly.

Funny you didn't point at Roa with that - who actually brought this issue back and used it to lay suspicion on me and Legate...

And I do disagree with you a bit. When something like that is used as a suspicion-caster there are all the reasons to counter them - at least when they are clearly fabricated... The bit I agree with you is that debating whether there is something in Brinn's posts without actually pointing to some is futile.

Why do you suddenly start to speculate about werebears and lovers?

Because I started to get a feeling I was looking at a pair of lovers staring me from these pages we play...

EDIT: X'd with Macalaure

[Mithalwen]

I am here .... just ponderingand possibly sulking

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Funny you didn't point at Roa with that - who actually brought this issue back and used it to lay suspicion on me and Legate...

And I do disagree with you a bit. When something like that is used as a suspicion-caster there are all the reasons to counter them - at least when they are clearly fabricated...

Clearly fabricated? If you say so...

Actually, it's not so much that you brought that thing up again: it's the length of it (esp. after having said: "And with that I'll shut my mouth with that discussion."). Even worse: you claim that it's a small correction. It's a whole paragraph!

Just like with the comment about lovers (adding: "it's probably insensible to go on speculating about those too much." to it), this looks like a wolf throwing out even two lures for people to discuss things that are irrelevant.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Noggie, you're not helping your own cause.

Originally Posted by Mac

The alarming thing: everytime I played against an evil Nogrod, I felt about him this way!

Mac, you're not helping your own cause.

Jokes aside. You are kind of doing the things a baddie would do.

First of all you shield the point made by saying that making of the point makes the maker look bad. So you haven't an answer, right? No one had suspected this so far and you were caught unarmed?

Secondly. I don't know how you have felt playing with me in the previous games (and whether you lie or beautify the truth in some way or not), but I happen to know you're wrong. So either your feelings are not much to be relied on or then you try purposefully to lead people astray. I know you others only have my word for it, but to me it's true enough to raise my eyebrows with Mac once again.

Thirdly. You seem to neatly downplay all the suggestions that Roa might not be a goodie. You've done that consistently since the dawn of Day1. Sorry, I've read the whole thread with my eye on that one thing as well. And you continue with it. Were you an innocent, you would not be that sure of it. You didn't say that Mith could deceive you either. Sure. And not of many others... But of all the people you leave Roa outside all doubt and f.ex. doubt Legate whom you know very well not to be a wolf! That is downright suspicious I say.

I was slightly thinking whether Mac and Roa were the lovers. Now I must say that Mac's reactions have strengthened my suspicions of that. They might be wolves too. Sure. But there is something wrong in there I say. What is it in the end I'm not sure (Menel might have surprises as he promised).

But seeing as I am that I'm suspecting two major forces in here I need to make a reservation for the common good. At least I will have to think this through once more. So please, don't you anyone make the nasty move Xyzzy made as he jumped on the first one he saw there was something up in the air against. Even though I suspect Roa somewhat, I really distaste the way Xyzzy voted for her.

If we have nothing better to go on this evening I might be again ready to vote for him as well. If he takes part as much he's done this far and if he behaves like he has behaved (jumped with the closest suspicion and disappeared with it), he will be a real threat - or at least too much of a gamble - to the village later on.

EDIT:

Originally Posted by Mac

Even worse: you claim that it's a small correction. It's a whole paragraph!

C'mon my friend... Losing with actual arguments now are we?

[Rikae]

It seems to me our best bet is still analyzing Glirdan's interactions with the other players. Of the dead, he's the only one that actually knew anything, and the other wolves knew him, unlike TGWBS.

So, a bit of Day 1 analysis:




In his first post, he mentioned Brinniel and “those wizard type people” - Sixth and Mac, while in his second he mentions Brinniel again, Mith and Gil before using my post as a reason to suspect Roa, who turns around and immediately suspects him. While I wouldn't put sacrificing a fellow wolf beyond Roa (she's said she would do it in this game alone), I somehow doubt wolf-Gil would leap on the first hint of a suspicion like that if it was for a fellow wolf. He could just as easily have ignored it.

Sixth's comment “unlike Glirdan, who could well be a bad guy.” looked very suspicious at the time, probably too suspicious after the fact to actually be wolfish.

Lommy drew more attention to Glirdan when only Roa had already suspected him, even to the point of calling his post an “example from the classic spot-a-wolf book”.

Mac expressed a milder sort of suspicion toward Glirdan, saying he “raises one of my eyebrows” and “looks a bit bad”. This doesn't reflect favorably on Mac, as far as I'm concerned; he could hardly ignore a fellow wolf looking so suspicious, but he downplays the level of it while cautiously tossing a bit of suspicion in another direction with “Beware of those who try to discreetly encourage such discussions without taking active parts in them!”

Lommy votes for Glirdan with the disclaimer “it's never wise to judge on the basis of a few posts”.

Sixth votes for Glirdan “Death to you!”

Glirdan defends himself suspecting Lommy and Sixth, but chooses to vote for Sixth.


The Cobbler who be short weighs in , suspecting Lommy and Sixth, and defending Glirdan.

Legate, in his first post late in the day, includes gratuitous in-character stuff, suspects Sixth...for his comment on Glirdan, no less – and mentions Glir-wolf in one breath with Roa (who I'm inclined to think is innocent at this point) and yours truly (innocent) with the suggestion there's wolves involved in this “three way debate”, or specifically; “one wolfy sluggard could no problem hide in there”. A very suspicious comment, in my opinion, especially since Legate doesn't address the Glirdan issue directly.

Gil suspects Thin and Lommy. No mention of Glirdan.

Nogrod's comment on Glirdan is “Glirdy, then? He looks so bad again... but I would actually hesitate with lynching him once again on Day 1 because he looks suspicious.” Wolf handbook material right there; I may have been wrong to trust Nogrod.

Roa, in spite of her initial suspicion of Glirdan, votes for TGWBS. Slightly suspicious, though she gives several reasons.

Nogrod posts some he-looks-odd near suspicions of TGWBS, Legate, Sixth, and an even weaker parenthetical half-accusation of Glirdan.

Legate says he thinks TGWBS and Roa both innocent. (Not Glirdan related, but I always find these “two innocents” statements somewhat wolfish.)

Mith defends Roa, Glirdan seems “off, but sometimes people genuinely get the wrong head of the stick”, suggests lynching Xyzzy.

Legate gives a random seeming list of me, Lommy, and the wizards, Sixth and Mac...then some mild suspicion of Nogrod and Brinniel. No mention of Glirdan.

Nogrod states he feels “pretty uncomfortable with lynching Glirdy”

Mac suspects TGWBS, the “only other person to wave a flag is Glirdan, but I'd rather hear of him tomorrow.”

Nogrod groups Gil with Glirdan, says it's “like flipping a coin”. This is at the top of his list, then he says “I'm quite sure that at least one wolf dwells at the top of my list, most probably two.” A very bold statement indeed, if he's a wolf, and then he considers voting for one.

Legate again posts a long post with no mention of Glirdan...considering voting for Xyzzy, agreeing with Gil, suspecting Lommy and Nogrod.

Mac suspects Glirdan, but votes TGWBS.







My conclusions: Legate looks the worst to me, and I will probably vote for him; Nogrod is somewhat suspicious, as well.

[Macalaure]

Nogrod, why do you respond to the same post twice? First spontaneous, and now in this elaborate and sweetly ironic way?

So either your feelings are not much to be relied on or then you try purposefully to lead people astray.

Whether I try to lead people astray we will only know after the game is over - or I'm dead. I'm not sure of the reliability of my feelings, but I remember being called the one 'who is always right', by... you. I can't believe to read this mild irony above from the typing hands of an innocent Nogrod.

You seem to neatly downplay all the suggestions that Roa might not be a goodie. You've done that consistently since the dawn of Day1.

Let's see. On Day One I indeed defended her - from Glirdan and tgwbs, known baddies. The rest of the time, I kept saying I find her innocent - which is simply what I do - without defending or downplaying anything at all.

But seeing as I am that I'm suspecting two major forces in here I need to make a reservation for the common good. At least I will have to think this through once more. So please, don't you anyone make the nasty move Xyzzy made as he jumped on the first one he saw there was something up in the air against. Even though I suspect Roa somewhat, I really distaste the way Xyzzy voted for her.

If we have nothing better to go on this evening I might be again ready to vote for him as well.

You think Roa and I are lovers? What better thing do you need then? Vote one of us! You did the exact same thing you're doing now with your suspicion on tgwbs on Day One. xyzzy will be dealt with before the end, I'm convinced (and willing to take care of).

Btw: the votes are pretty spread already, so I would rather disencourage people to vote for xyzzy today.

C'mon my friend... Losing with actual arguments now are we?

Not at all. You made a nice and pretty side discussion and tried to downplay it by saying it's small. It would have downplayed your own involvement in it if the debate really came to being, and that is a suspicious way, to me.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

One sideway (or maybe not?) thing at the beginning. As the lovers&co were mentioned here, I must say that more and more I get the feeling that there are not only some Lovers, but most likely we are a village of five Wolves, three Seers, four Lovers, one Mythomaniac and one Cultist. And maybe one Ranger as a bonus.

As I said earlier, I am probably not going after Lommy today, which brings me back to the suspects I had before, there was nothing which would sway my opinions in some drastic ways. Except for one person who moved to the "red line" for me.
I was waiting all the afternoon for Gil-Galad to post and now I am seriously considering to vote for him. Because something smells here. And please give me a confirmation that you see it as well and are just intentionally not posting about it, and tell me that I am "stupid newbie to even start about it, because this is a thing which is not to be debated publicly". Because otherwise I'd have to think you all overlooked it, or that I am just making up things (well, maybe I am).

Rikae, only to your thoughts of me not posting about Glirdan I can add that I mentioned him as much as Roa and you, because you all were in that "starting triangle" and it was quite probable there is at least one wolf among you, however, I could not tell who of you. I do not meddle in "mainstream discussions", because there are many people involved in them and I generally do not want to meddle in their debate unless I have any concern of supporting either of them. I generally rather watch from the outside and wait if someone of them slips or something like that. Because if I focused on that dispute mainly, it would deepen the concentration on this particular problem, which would help to make the village's view quite narrow. And this is not what we need.

[Macalaure]

Gil-Galad


#5 nothing

#31
Makes a good point about Lommy (a redundant statement from her)
Ties Lommy with Roa because of Lommy's defense of her (tied in good or evil)
I see his point on Lommy, though tying her with Roa is a stretch, I think. The comment on giftedness could be a slip - or not.

#38
Needs to vote: Lommy

#62
Returns to say if Lommy's a wolf then Roa and Six might be, too, or they're just confused and if she's innocent the other two also look that way.
This is a very vague statement, to be polite. But it's "If A is innocent, then B probably is, too" and not the trademark wolvish "If A is innocent, then B probably isn't"

----

#120 - his longest post ever
In the first part, he makes some fair points analysing the votes
Then it's not too clear to me how he comes from this to his suspect classification
His point on Six is bogus

What do you do with this. it starts really good and ends desastrous. However, I'm not sure whether it has been written with evil intent.

#122
He attacks Roa because she didn't like his point about Six. This really does look bad

#150
He still sees a connection between Roa and Lommy
tgwbs seems innocent to him (if no co-wolf is in danger, then a wolf might want to save a villager who causes distraction, or use him to get a defendable vote. But then, Gil usually isn't too eager about defendable votes. I (innocent) thought tgwbs innocent, too, at that time)
Votes Mith with reasons I don't share, but which I can understand somewhat

#156
He defends himself from Roa, quite offensely
Roa's accuse isn't that good in the first place, and though Gil's defense looks very weird, it seems genuine to me

#210
Says the votes are too spread and if tgwbs is a wolf, we will have to use ww-math

Huh?

----

#221 nothing

#233
Still suspicious of Mith. His reasons for it make no sense to me whatsoever

#254
He defends himself from Sixth, with fair points
Votes Mith because she bugs him
Will look at Roa and me if he survives (I'm not sure why he thinks he might be killed)


What can I say. Usually, this would have been enough to make me suspicious, but one has to use different measures when it comes to Gil (no offense ). There are some suspicious things, but also a lot which is very typical for Gil. He remains watchworthy for me, but isn't one of my, now two, top suspects.

PS: Whatever it is you saw, Legate, I must've missed it.

[Macalaure]

A quick look at the votes:

xyzzy -> Roa
Six -> Gil (Roa 1, Gil 1)
Roa -> Nogrod (Roa 1, Gil 1, Nogrod 1)
Gil -> Mith (Roa 1, Gil 1, Nogrod 1, Mith 1)


In a village of 10, 4 is enough I would say.

[Mithalwen]

I have read through all the posts and am inclined to think:

Least suspicious

sixth wizard
Lommy
Roa

less suspicious/unsure

Rikae
Nogrod
Macalaure
Much more suspicious

Legate
xyzzy
Gil-galad


Xyzzy has done nothing to suggest any real level of interest in this game. I am sorry to harp on but I think the no kill suggests at least one disengaged wolf - and maybe onewho is victim of force majeure or not confident/experiencedenough to act alone.

I really don't like Legate's hanging around waiting to see which way the wind goes before making up his mind. And he has come to some funny decisions. Seems to me he could be a flying under the radar wolf.

Gil.....is making no sense. How the Angbandhe has the cheek to say I am out of character I don't know but being somewhat teed off isnot necessarily the best basis for a vote... however

I would be really surprised if there were not at least one wolf among these three,

Another little thing about Gil ...Glirdan had an attack of mentionitis before he attacked Roa in his first (?) post. He mentioned me, Brinniel and Gil. I am innocent, Brinniel was innocent, so that leaves me to wonder if Glirdan slipped one of his cohort in there as a "non-reference"

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

PS: Whatever it is you saw, Legate, I must've missed it.

Okay, okay, maybe I am really making things up. Let's ignore that part, at least for now.

Nevertheless, concerning today's vote of mine:

I am not going for Six nor xyzzy - one looks innocent and the other is almost not posting (although as someone poined out, if we leave xyzzy around here like that, he can be a dangerous factor even if he's innocent, like a non-guarded dynamite patron).
I am not going for Rikae nor Mac.
I am not going for Roa though I could, but there is no evidence that I would call "solid".
Neither I am going for Mithalwen, last day she was more or less cleared for me.
And not Lommy, as I said, not today.
So this leaves me with Nogrod&Gil-Galad.

If Gil is a wolf, he'd be quite dangerous as "quiet wolf". His behavior seems strange (for Gil, as much as I know him, which is not much, but from what it seems to me...) and in some times, not logical. Sometimes not logical at all. I know it is typical for Gil to "chaotically pop up like jack-in-the-box", but sometimes...
His going after Mith is also quite ridiculous. For example this:

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

I've always tried to catch the whole "sneaking-under-the-radar" move for Wolfs... so hopefully i caught me one Lupine...

++Mithalwen

And also this:

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

my longest WW post...ever...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
time for my math to come in now...

Maybe this was meant as signal for the Mathematician Cobbler TGWBS? Only to ponder, perhaps my imagination is just too wild.

Nogrod then... Well, he says and does strange things still, nothing to dismiss my suspicions from start. I'll probably flip a coin, since I don't know if I could make anything sensible out of their (his&Gil's) posts.

[Macalaure]

Whatever you do, don't do it by flipping a coin.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Nogrod then... Well, he says and does strange things still, nothing to dismiss my suspicions from start. I'll probably flip a coin, since I don't know if I could make anything sensible out of their (his&Gil's) posts.

Don't flip a coin and be ready to open your eyes. If for nothing else, remember what Roa said. I would never miss a kill as a wolf.

Well, if you decide to lynch me toDay or if the wolves kill me the next Night, please remember this then. I mean it was a bit odd how ready Rikae seemed to be to jump on me as she saw that there were some actual suspicions on me that existed (before that she had defended me slightly as to make me feel good about her?). In similar vein I'm a bit astonished how Roa's lead has taken Mac and now Legate with her. Well, she surely seems to have power to move minds.

Funny thing is that she can say these kinds of things and still people think her a genious:

Originally Posted by Roa

For example, Brinniel dismissed Lommy as a wolf, which looks very good for Lommy. However, Brinniel also promised to look more closely into Lommy and why she was being suspected toDay, had she been alive. This could A. be bad for Lommy, or B. be bad for the people who suspected Lommy. So they killed her to avoid this.

Wow!

(Yes, I do think most highly of Roa as a ww-player but in this game she has been something of a disappointment - no flashing arguments, no heavenly analysis, no nothing arpousing real awe for her capabilities - or maybe she's forced to do something she doesn't like, f.ex. being tied to someone as a lover?)


Anyhow. This is beginning to look like a madhouse. Possibly Menel's surprises are beginning to bite at last? So I'm the only normal villager around, eh?

Some interesting stuff to come, anyhow. Wait a second.