Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[Gil-Galad]

I still can not shrug off my suspicion of Mithalwen...

Brinniel and Gil are definitely misguided and one of them may well be a wolf.

i don't like this, she "suspected" me and Brinniel of being a wolf, and with Brinniel dead, that leaves me, i think that perhaps Mithalwen is trying to direct the attention to me as being a wolf, and if she is the wolf, then she will shrug it off of herself...

don't like it one bit... plus the "i don't care" defenses she has been giving...

[The Sixth Wizard]

Do we have a hunter in the group? Was the Night 2 no-kill because of this or did the wolves just not post a name? Are we allowed to know, mister Menel?

Perhaps the wolves didn't go for me on Night 3 because they thought it would be too obvious. If the hunter really did stop the wolves Night 2 the wolves would have to be more wary, going for someone possibly valuable but not quite innocent in the public eye.

I'll start the rather tedious going over of people's posts soon, in the meantime, my old suspicions stand.

[Macalaure]

tgwbs dead, Brinn dead.

I'm not really surprised they went for Brinniel. Because of these stupid meta-reasons she and Six look(ed) very innocent. Probably the wolves thought Brinn more of a threat than Six. Her opinions are worthy of a second look. Hopefully she was more than just the greater potential threat.

tgwbs looks like an awfully obvious cobbler, in hindsight. I doubt we can read much from his posts. His knowledge was as incomplete as everyone's, and then he even had to twist what he thought he knew in whatever way. I'll try anyway.

Going to be back later.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Roa

I wasn't acting surprised; I was surprised. To be perfectly honest, I had given virtually no thought to Brin whatsoever. Seeing as Sixth's voting record had/ has almost the entire village convinced he's innocent, I was fully expecting the wolves to take him out.

Seconded. Even if Roa is lying at that moment to save her neck, this makes perfect sense.

Originally Posted by Roa

Something interesting- Day 1, Glirdan and TGWBS both had the same three suspects. [Roa, Six, Lommy]

Interesting. If I now based my accusations mainly on what Glirdy and TGWBS did, it would cast rather positive light on Lommy - or if Lommy was a wolf, this would be the meanest trick I've ever seen from both the Cobbler and Glirdan.
But what Roa said about the same suspect does not necessarily prove anything - the common suspects were the three persons who were the most in the spotlight at that time, and it's only logical for the wolves (and their allies) to join accusing bandwaggons, at least a little bit.

Originally Posted by Roa

As for Brin, she was highly suspected Day 1, and had enough suspicion on Day 2 that she doesn't seem that obvious of a wolf kill. It leads me to wonder why her and not Sixth, who was trusted by almost everyone?

Well, sorry, but this is extremely wolvish. "Hello folks. This and this happened. But wait - this looks strange. WHAT DO YOU THINK...?" Provoking a nowhere leading discussion, which could be as well the reason to kill Brinniel. (One wolf to another: Heya, let's kill Brinn, they'll spend half time debating about why the heck we killed her and not Sixth! - Yeah, yeah, pal, that's a good idea!) So unless anyone has any positive conclusion from why Brinn was killed, I suggest leave it and not post questions which raise debate. The only logical conclusion from someone posting a question to which he himself does not have an answer is that he is hoping someone else to look at it - and post an answer. But why not look at it myself´? You cannot trust the others' answers on that, unless you know they are innocent. So why even bring it up, unless it is a vital question, worthy very much to the village? I don't think this is the case - there are no direct evidencies like Brinniel being a powerful person capable of starting a bandwaggon against one of the wolves, so that the wolves had to kill her. Unless someone has any real evidence, I'd leave this matter.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm not really surprised they went for Brinniel. Because of these stupid meta-reasons she and Six look(ed) very innocent. Probably the wolves thought Brinn more of a threat than Six. Her opinions are worthy of a second look. Hopefully she was more than just the greater potential threat.

Yes, or this is another possibility of what the wolves might have thought. I doubt we can read something significant from this one. After all, wolves are wolves and do NOT want to be found.

To the whole TGWBS-Roa-whoeverelsewasthereatthestart issue, we should bear in mind that it was logical for TGWBS to "test water" for who the wolves might be (e.g. as I said earlier, "There is probably at least one wolf in the Roa-Glirdan-Rikae triangle" - TGWBS might have thought similar way). Just to bear this one in mind.

I'll be back! Said Arnie the Senator.

[Nogrod]

Just a piece of unuseful information...

I thought of making a print of the stuff at school so that I could read it in all ease somewhere f.ex. outside after the school as it's a fine spring day and one wouldn't like to just sit at home by the computer.

But I came to other thoughts as I saw the number of pages this game would take in print. 103, to be exact.

[Mithalwen]

I am just checking in but won't have time to do much.... and I still don't know what Gil is on about.... think I need to read day one.....

[Thinlómien]

This is quite downright ridiculous and unfortunate enough to be funny, but I managed to catch a flu during the easter holiday and should be recovering home... And as I - as most of you probably already know - don't have a net access home, this short library visit is all I can do toDay. I'll post something more related soon...

[Macalaure]

I tried to come up with something interesting, but failed. So here's an overview of my suspicions right now, just to appear helpful.


Gil-Galad ~ *shrug*

Legate of Amon Lanc ~ fairly unsuspicious. He defends tgwbs even as he was already clearly going down. A wolf might do that, to say "I told you he was innocent" afterwards, but a wolf would have done that differently in some way, I think.

Mithalwen ~ she is somewhat strange, but I get an innocent feel from her

Nogrod ~ even though I still could imagine him being evil, I doubt it. Nogrod is a Sportswolf, and he wouldn't have gone the way to pursue a lynching of xyzzy. I rather guess an innocent Nogrod who doesn't know what else to do would have.

Rikae ~ I looked over her posts again and found nothing suspicious. I'm unfamiliar with a totally unsuspicious Rikae, and therefore wary.

Roa_Aoife ~ I more and more find myself thinking: If Roa is evil, she deserves to win. I really find nothing suspicious about her.

The Sixth Wizard ~ unsuspicious

Thinlómien ~ The cobbler tries to lynch her and innocent Brinn thought her "more innocent than anything". I'm sorry, but I still suspect her like I did yesterDay.

xyzzy ~ ?


Two wolves are probably left and I find everybody but Lommy innocent. Gil? Are Legate or Rikae fooling me marvelously? Or is it really Nogrod in the end? This is frustrating.

[The Sixth Wizard]

Ok people, 10:00 pm (!) or so where I live so I must conduct a finale to my Day.

Gil-Galad ~ Keeps saying we are spread out in our suspicions, that he doesn't like what we are doing (and we have generally been on target so far) generally deterring us from things, doubtful of TGWBS's treachery, regularly suspicious vs. Mith and no-one else, which I think may be a way to keep us off track...

Legate of Amon Lanc ~ Really suspects everyone. He is very smart, I percieve. Blah blah blah... He seems too neutral for me to throw a vote away with him.

Macalaure ~ Same as above. Analyses a couple of people. Doesn't feel guilty overall, votes Lommy for discernable reasons.

Mithalwen ~ Pretty boring really. She doesn't say much in her (short) posts, though she insists quite overactively that she is innocent. Quite open, actually, openly suspects TGWBS as a gifted, and says :

You are .... you are.....

Nogrod ~ Garr, it's as if he's trying to put us off with LONG, I must admit, waffling posts. So let's decide from his votes. YesterDay: TGWBS. First Day: Glirdan. Two hits. So he is too innocent in his voting to be a wolf in my opinion, at least not yet. Plus he posts near the end of the Day, where the votes are decisive.

Rikae ~ Doesn't say much. I believe in the phrase 'innocent until proven guilty'. Perhaps people will exploit that of me in more Werewolf games.

Roa_Aoife ~ Another long poster like Nogrod. Her votes: YesterDay: Gil-Galad. First Day: TGWBS. Not too much to be discerned and I can't be bothered reading over hers in general.

The Sixth Wizard ~ The one and only!

Thinlómien ~ I'm thinking you'd have to be a suicidal wolf to vote and act the way Lommy has been. I find suspicions about her reasonable, but not truths. I don't, however condemn those who suspect her. Hey, I've been right thus far with voting the same as Lommy, why change now...

xyzzy ~ Innocent until proven guilty.

So my final decision... !

++Gil-Galad !

Good Night Everyone and don't let the Werewolves bite!

[Meneltarmacil]

*re-animates*

I've already explained why there was no kill on Night 2 on the admin thread.

*crawls back into grave*

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, sorry, but this is extremely wolvish. "Hello folks. This and this happened. But wait - this looks strange. WHAT DO YOU THINK...?" Provoking a nowhere leading discussion, which could be as well the reason to kill Brinniel.

I don't see it as a discussion leading nowhere. There is a reason she was killed, whether it is the reasoning that she looked too innocent to leave alive, or if it was to draw suspicion away from/to the people she thought innocent or guilty. Or perhaps even because they suspected her of being gifted. I want to know that reason, because it will give huge insight into the wolves. Again, from "Werewolf 101" is lesson 42 "Always try to understand why a person was killed by the wolves." (Specifically Derived from the book "Advice on Hunting Wolves-- by Roa Johnson.")

I find the people more eager to dismiss such discussion as wolvish, not those who would encourage it. *imagines Brinniel screaming at her screen because everyone is dismissing her death as uninformative*

For example, Brinniel dismissed Lommy as a wolf, which looks very good for Lommy. However, Brinniel also promised to look more closely into Lommy and why she was being suspected toDay, had she been alive. This could A. be bad for Lommy, or B. be bad for the people who suspected Lommy. So they killed her to avoid this.

I think people she exonerated should be analyzed, as well as people she didn't. I just don't have the time for it this game, so unless someone really worries me, I'm not going to bother. But I am not the only villager here.

Right now, Legate and Nogrod are not looking to good because they insist on dismissing the possibilities. Wolves wanting to hide their true reasoning would do that.

I'm really low on time. Legate has been bugging me for a while, but I've been so sure of Nogrod and Gil that I had excluded the possibility. (That'd be four wolves, after all.) But I find myself less sure of Gil, now, and Legate's continued insistance that we don't know that we don't have a ranger who stopped the kill on Night two bugs me. We all know the reason. I wish I had time to do the analysis of him.

And don't think I've forgotten Rikae. I still don't like how people are quick to discount her becuase of vote placement. If she's a wolf, we'll have played right into her hands.

I'm going to look at the two as much as I can, but I'm low on time. (I'll look at Rikae first- she has a third of what Legate's posted. I'll analyze at Legate toNight, and post that Day 4 first thing, provided I am still alive.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I don't see it as a discussion leading nowhere. There is a reason she was killed, whether it is the reasoning that she looked too innocent to leave alive, or if it was to draw suspicion away from/to the people she thought innocent or guilty. Or perhaps even because they suspected her of being gifted. I want to know that reason, because it will give huge insight into the wolves.

But the point was not that looking for evidence why Brinn was killed is useless. The point was that starting a debate on it without actively posting anything is useless. Simply said: if you already started to dig into that case, I'd expect you to say in the next moment "and I looked into it and I think it happened like this". Otherwise it seems that you don't have any interest in the subject you - yourself - brought into spotlight.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

and Legate's continued insistance that we don't know that we don't have a ranger who stopped the kill on Night two bugs me. We all know the reason.

Continued? I said it once, if I remember correctly. And I said it because someone wasn't sure that the no-kill was really only because the wolves didn't send a kill, not because the Ranger saved it. And as you see, some didn't until now - look up before your post, where Six still had some doubts on it and poor Menel himself had to rise from his grave.

However, back to the topic:

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

For example, Brinniel dismissed Lommy as a wolf, which looks very good for Lommy. However, Brinniel also promised to look more closely into Lommy and why she was being suspected toDay, had she been alive. This could A. be bad for Lommy, or B. be bad for the people who suspected Lommy. So they killed her to avoid this.

I was about to point that if Lommy is among the wolves, it was a good move for the Wolves not to kill anyone from the Lommy-voters, otherwise, things might have become far more clear. So if you ask me, as I said earlier - and Mac said something similar - I think there are no "personal interests" in killing Brinniel.

I'm still waiting for more input from some other people, though... seems we are not hearing from Lommy today, so I might reconsider voting for her and wait till (if) she shows up.

[Roa_Aoife]

Rikae
Day 1
1st post - in character nonsense

2nd post - disagreement with Roa, would rather gifted come forward, slight suspicion

Interestingly, I was looking for people to debate my post. I figured the wolves (and apparently the cobbler) would try to carry on the debate about roles. Rikae was the first, and so seems to have fallen into the trap. I wonder though- she seems to take issue more with the way I argued rather than what I argued.

3rd post - Doesn't know what to make of Glirdan, will reserve judgement, Finds TGWBS off, primarily because of his accusations against Roa and Thin, points out that a hunter may not get to kill if lynched, doesn't like Legate's attitude

4th post - Says she hasn't had time to read through entirely, votes Glirdan.

This coupled with the last post bothers me slightly. She was so unsure of Glirdan, then suddenly pops in to vote for him. Admittedly, her vote tied Glirdan with Lommy, but she herself sad that she hadn't had time to finish the read through, so she may not have realized this was the case. She offers no further reasoning. It's very convenient for her that Glirdan was lynched and revealed to be evil- otherwise, she would have come under some fire for this.


Day 2
1st post - Thinks that the lack of kill means that a ranger protected the victim, finds TGWBS suspicious for tying Lommy with Glirdan, also Brinniel, for promising not to vote for a now known wolf, and for her last post of Day 1, thinks Nogrod and sixth are innocent

Knowing now that TGWBS was a cobbler, he makes a nice target for Rikae, who, if evil, could only have known that he was not a wolf. That is admitedly a big if, though.

2nd post - doesn't think Nogrod would sacrifice a fellow wolf so early, gives reasons why Nogrod could have saved Glirdan

Seeing as how I believe Nogrod is evil, I wonder if Rikae would defend him so. I somehow doubt it. Of course, if he's not (I can be wrong), and she is, this could be an attempt to "make friends" with a very powerful player. On the third hand, she could just be an innocent who really believes Nogrod is innocent.

3rd post - Defends Sixth to Legate, thinks Legate needs to be looked at more closely, Votes TGWBS, thinks Roa has a good point about Gil.

This looks very innocent, actually. Votes and leaves again.


Day 3
1st post - hasn't seen a plausible case for Lommy being a wolf



On the whole, she looks more innocent than guilty. However, there are a few things that irk me, and her reponse to my first post, which was used by a known wolf to attack me, makes me wonder. I can see her laughing evilly as a wolf because very few people suspect her, but I could also see her as a really good innocent. It's a tough call. I never like to exonerate anyone completely (that's how wolves slip by) but I don't think that justifies lynching her toDay. Tomorrow may be a another story.