Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[Roa_Aoife]

Brinniel, eh? That's surprising. I was expecting Sixth.....

I'm going to go back through Brinniel's posts to see if I can pinpoint why she was killed. I'm also going to look through TGWBS's posts. I don't expect much- he's as tricksy as I am. More importantly, I'm going to look at people's reactions to him. I expect to find more there.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Brinniel, eh? That's surprising. I was expecting Sixth.....

Either one of them... both being the most reasonable candidates. I can't see a surprise here.

I'm going to go back through Brinniel's posts to see if I can pinpoint why she was killed.

Brinniel might have had points and any help we can get is good for us, but you won't get any traditional ww-evidence out of her (she being killed because of something she said).The reason why she was killed was most probably based on the "meta-reasons" - as you called them.

And with that I'll shut my mouth with that discussion.

I'll try to have a look around too before I need to go to sleep...

[Gil-Galad]

wow... i almost forgot about what happened last day so i have nothing to add right now... hopefully in a bit

[The Sixth Wizard]

G'day other Were-wolverinos! It has been a while since we were last on...

Brinniel, eh? That's surprising. I was expecting Sixth.....

It appears through my lack of experience I am being too open and getting myself killed. No matter!

So... TGWBS was a cobbler, Brinniel was just a normal villager (a win for us, as she wasn't gifted?) and Glirdan was a wolf. Seems so far my suspicions may be correct.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

a. Hunker down (play most normally) and try to stay alive (not charging anyone too openly) until you have better ideas of who is who and start to meddle only after that.
b. Go on openly chasing some random people and relieve others in a way that you can secretly try to inform the wolves about your identity. Then just hope the wolves will not get you during the Night.
c. If you have a hunch of the wolves identities, attack one of them with some hidden notes to them / relieve players you think bad for the wolves with the same fashion. Again: just hope the wolves will not get you during the Night.

You forgot D. Confuse/ mis-direct discussion, and throw suspicion in as many directions as possible so as to create havoc in the village

Also, E. Play suspiciously so as to get yourself lynched in place of a wolf

And finally, F. Try to draw suspicion away from someone you believe is a wolf by creating suspicion against someone else, potentially someone bad for the wolves.

With that, option A was clearly not what TGWBS was doing, given his agressive suspicion of Lommy and myself. B is more of a possibility (one reason I'm looking into people's reactions to him). C would be far too straightforward for TGWBS. (He's more the type to double bluff us with that.) D, he clearly did with his continued discussion of potential gifted rooles and what we should do if someone claims to be a gifted. E is something I would suspect of a less experienced player, not TGWBS. F is as possible as B, especially since he tried to keep discussion away from Glirdan, whom we now know is a wolf. Of course, he didn't know that, but he could have suspected it, as others did.

In summary, A= no; B= maybe; C=probably not; D= yes; E= no; and F= maybe.

EDIT: Crossed with Nogrod

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

You forgot D. Confuse/ mis-direct discussion, and throw suspicion in as many directions as possible so as to create havoc in the village

Also, E. Play suspiciously so as to get yourself lynched in place of a wolf

And finally, F. Try to draw suspicion away from someone you believe is a wolf by creating suspicion against someone else, potentially someone bad for the wolves.

You sure are right with these... although I did leave your cases E and F out as they only go for certain particular situations. But case D I totally forgot. My bad... as I myself did just that for the first couple of Days as I was a cobbler a long time ago. That surely is one of the most important ways a cobbler could work...

Good night again...

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Brinniel might have had points and any help we can get is good for us, but you won't get any traditional ww-evidence out of her (she being killed because of something she said).The reason why she was killed was most probably based on the "meta-reasons" - as you called them.

You're probably right, but I want to take a look anyways. I'm more interested in how other people were reacting to her than her to them, if that makes any sense. Same with TGWBS.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa

I'm also going to look through TGWBS's posts. I don't expect much- he's as tricksy as I am.

A good piece of advice. We should take everythnig tgwbs said with the famous pinch of salt...

I have experience of being a cobbler myself from earlier games. It's one of the most enjoyable roles there is - and also one of the most nerve-wrecking.

But some basics to interpret a cobblers posting should be shared...

He does not know the wolves identities (at least normally he doesn't - we don't know about it with this game to be sure). That makes the cobbler to adapt to one of the different strategies - others sure are possible.
a. Hunker down (play most normally) and try to stay alive (not charging anyone too openly) until you have better ideas of who is who and start to meddle only after that.
b. Go on openly chasing some random people and relieve others in a way that you can secretly try to inform the wolves about your identity. Then just hope the wolves will not get you during the Night.
c. If you have a hunch of the wolves identities, attack one of them with some hidden notes to them / relieve players you think bad for the wolves with the same fashion. Again: just hope the wolves will not get you during the Night.

But that's the starting position only.

A cobbler will adapt his game to the situation. In the case of tgwbs I strongly believe that at least after Day1 he knew he was close to the gallows (not the least because he had no chances to talk to himself at the deadline). So he would then adjust his posting accordingly. The only problem is, whether he was just double-bluffing us or whether he went further...

Originally Posted by Roa

I'm more interested in how other people were reacting to her than her to them, if that makes any sense. Same with TGWBS.

That sounds like a lot of sense to me.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Me in #173

In general I’ll leave the row between tgwbs and Roa be. I see no reason to dwell in it now. But this argument against Roa in #155 needs to be restated just for fun:

This remark I can see in a new light right now. Now why on earth did a cobbler say that? Trying to contact a wolf?

It indeed mirrors Roa's strategy in her last game as a cobbler and the rant she had with spm - and she also cleared me of all suspicion then as tgwbs did from Day2 onwards. Or was he trying to pose as a seer to my viewpoint at least? I remember Mith's concern about him being a gifted. I shared the same concern for a while after I read tgwbs's defence of myself and the way he set his suspicions / innocents lists on Day2. In the end I managed to get get myself over it and thought that were he a Seer he would not have acted that bluntly... happily so.

But I'm also a bit surprised of the way Roa decided to act as surprised with the death of Brinniel. That felt just like an undetached quasi-wonder to be made for the sake of saying something. But it's Roa and she rarely just fills in nonsense lines - and she was the one to first draw attention to these meta-reasons anyway... so she would have known?

I would also like to bring forwards the way Glirdy (known wolf) acted towards Roa on Day1. YesterDay I thought it talked in favour of her but now I'm not so sure anymore.

After Roa's initial discussion of the care we should take on any revealments Glirdy answered:

I'd have to agree with the actor person there, Rikae. There's something about that there....uhhh....let me check my hand for her name....uh....Brinnel..no....Mith...noooooo.....Gi l...nuhuh.....Glirdan....THAT'S ME! What am I going to have for breakfast??? OOO!! Butterfly....pretty.....

What?? OH!! Right....about Roa!! Ya, that's the one. There's something bout that one there that doesn't sit right at all. No it doesn't. Too inconsistent with her....her idea's? No...her thoughts!! Ya....I want sleep.....

I agree that at this point it would be risky for them there Gifteds to proclaim themsleves. But who in their right mind would do that at this point unless they were on the verge of being lynched? So why even bring up the idea that the Gifteds should remain hidden when we all know that they will and they already have that set in their minds? It's....ummm....confusing....and....umm....unnervi ng what she said. Ya, that's what it is....

And after Roa answered him he said:

Okay, roleplaying over for me for now.

And now I am clear. I was actually a litte befuddled by what you had posted which made me leery(sp?) of you. Sorry for jumping down your throat.

Now I am quite disturbed by Sixth's and Lommy's votes for me.

Funny that Roa was this lenient to answer Glirdy just by way of saying that "I think you've misunderstood me entirely, or else you are intentionally misrepresenting my post". It's the nicest way I have ever seen Roa talk of any other person in this game who doubted her - unless she has had something to hide... But see also the way Glirdy gets back into line after Roa's point...

Okay. I don't know. It's too late for me to continue to see if this case has anything of merit in it. I do normally suspect Roa (and she does suspect me). In that way we're even. I know I have now laid some points for suspecting her as I'm going to retire for the night (rl) and I can only guess what kind of full-scaled attacks she could launch at me while I'm away...

I'm not sure about this, not even convinced. And all the evidence we draw from tgwbs (with which my curiosity to look at Roa was raised) must be taken basically in line with the probabilty that he didn't know the wolves identities any more than we do... and that he wanted to lead us astray - but also to contact the wolves. That is one of the most pressing things for cobblers, to be recognised by the right persons... according to whom they believe are the ones... So all this is just what little raised my eyebrows before going to sleep. I hope I can be more elaborate with this and more importantly, with other possibilities as I awake and have some time to look at this more thoroughly.

[Nogrod]

After I reread my last post, let me be clear.

It's pretty sure that tgwbs thought Roa a wolf. There's no other way of interpreting some of the points he made - the one I quoted in my last post is a good example.

But if he didn't knew who the wolves are (which normally is the case) that's not much of a proof to anything.

Waffling again now... but with a reason, I think.

Well. You all look at the things yourselves. To me it's now Good Night.

EDIT: X'd with Roa

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

This remark I can see in a new light right now. Now why on earth did a cobbler say that? Trying to contact a wolf?

Or trying to get everyone else's suspicions riled up against a dangerous player. That's why the wolves leave me alive after all.

It indeed mirrors Roa's strategy in her last game as a cobbler and the rant she had with spm - and she also cleared me of all suspicion then as tgwbs did from Day2 onwards.

As I said at the end of my last game, my only strategy in defending you and attacking SPM was to get my identity to the wolves. I made no decisions about either of you in terms of wolvishness. But that game I had a list that I could send to the wolves every night, and through that I revealed myself. This was a special rule, specifically for that game. It is unlikely that TGWBS had the same tool.

But I'm also a bit surprised of the way Roa decided to act as surprised with the death of Brinniel. That felt just like an undetached quasi-wonder to be made for the sake of saying something. But it's Roa and she rarely just fills in nonsense lines - and she was the one to first draw attention to these meta-reasons anyway... so she would have known?

I wasn't acting surprised; I was surprised. To be perfectly honest, I had given virtually no thought to Brin whatsoever. Seeing as Sixth's voting record had/ has almost the entire village convinced he's innocent, I was fully expecting the wolves to take him out. Another target hadn't really entered my mind. In hind sight, (especially looking through the thread now), I'm beginning to understand. (Wish I'd payed a bit more attention to that.)

I would also like to bring forwards the way Glirdy (known wolf) acted towards Roa on Day1. YesterDay I thought it talked in favour of her but now I'm not so sure anymore.

Funny that Roa was this lenient to answer Glirdy just by way of saying that "I think you've misunderstood me entirely, or else you are intentionally misrepresenting my post". It's the nicest way I have ever seen Roa talk of any other person in this game who doubted her - unless she has had something to hide... But see also the way Glirdy gets back into line after Roa's point...

Hey, I'm nice more often than you seem to think. Besides it was less than six hours into Day 1. I had reason to be a bit more cautious in my suspicions. I'm glad I was, or I might not have started looking at TGWBS. While I was more certain he had intentionally mis-interperted my post, the possibility that he was making a genuine mistake was very real. Further more, I almost always allow for that when I see people mis-representing things. The only exceptions are when I'm evil and trying to lynch an innocent, or when I'm innocent and certain I've found a baddie.

I know I have now laid some points for suspecting her as I'm going to retire for the night (rl) and I can only guess what kind of full-scaled attacks she could launch at me while I'm away...

I already brought up everything on Day 2. Unless I find something else on my read through and graphing (I'm graphing everyone's suspicions, etc), I don't see why I would attack you again. That'd be redundant.

[xyzzy]

Hmm...

At the (admittedly small) chance that TGWBS had any idea what he was talking about, I'm going to vote for...

++Roa

I won't be on until perhaps tonight, but probably tomorrow after day has ended... Darned schedule of mine, I blast thee to the very dankest parts of heck.

...Or somewhere equally bad.

[Roa_Aoife]

I went ahead and added Glirdan, just because.

Brinniel
Day 1, thought Sixth, TGWBS, and Thin as innocent,
suspected Gil and Roa,
slightly suspected TGWBS

Suspected by Nogrod and Legate,
thought innocent by none

Day 2, thought Legate, Mac, Sixth, and Thin innocent,
Suspected Gil, Mith, and Nogrod

Suspected by Mith and Rikae
Thought innocent by Legate, Mac, Nogrod, and Thin

TGWBS
Day 1, Suspected Roa, Sixth, and Thin

Suspected by Mac, Mith, Rikae, and Roa,
thought innocent by Brinniel and Legate

Day 2, Thought Mith, Nogrod, Rikae, and Sixth innocent
Suspected Mac, Roa, and Lommy

Suspected by Nogrod, Rikae, Roa, Sixth, Thin, and xyzzy
Thought innocent by Gil, Legate, and Mac

Glirdan

Suspected Roa, Sixth, and Thin

SUspected by Mac, Mith, Rikae, Roa, Sixth, and Thin



Something interesting- Day 1, Glirdan and TGWBS both had the same three suspects. Now, TGWBS could not have been certain that Glirdan was a wolf, but as Glirdan expressed these suspicions first, and as he avoided ever stating his opinion about Glirdan, it seems a very high probability that he figured it out. Lommy and Sixth did, after all.

The only other person to have these three as top suspects is Gil. Not sure what that says, but it's worth mentioning.

As for Brin, she was highly suspected Day 1, and had enough suspicion on Day 2 that she doesn't seem that obvious of a wolf kill. It leads me to wonder why her and not Sixth, who was trusted by almost everyone? I can't figure out if this points to a wolvish Sixth, or if the wolves had reason to pick Brinniel instead, such as suspecting her of giftedness.

And now that I've looked through, something else has caught my eye: Nogrod's post about potential Cobbler strategies for TGWBS makes option C (see quote) seem like the obvious choice. He even goes on to use it a reasoning for a case against me.

c. If you have a hunch of the wolves identities, attack one of them with some hidden notes to them / relieve players you think bad for the wolves with the same fashion.

This is very convenient for Nogrod, given that TGWBS said he was innocent. It reminds of what the wolfish SPM did when I was the cobbler- trying to make it seem as though I thought he was innocent. As I recall, the then innocent Nogrod didn't fall for it. Why so keen to go for it now, except that it clearly exonerates him?