Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[Brinniel]

Gil- Your suspicions on Lommy are rather confusing. At first you say:

Lommy, sixth, nogrod and rikae are the only ones to have voted for Glirdan, so by following the math, they obviously tend to be the more innocent ones then

And then you place on your suspicious list:

suspicious ~ Lommy, sixth

Now, perhaps you are going more on gut instinct rather than mathematical reason. Do you still suspect her for the same reasons as your comment yesterDay?

but i got a little itch from Lommy's post... she just came right out and tried to defend Roa... could be a virtuous villager, but everyone should know that if they are an ordinary, they are on their own

If you could please further explain your reason here, I'd appreciate it.

Roa- Like always, you are indeed persuasive. And perhaps I am more easily convinced now that I don't really suspect like I did yesterDay, in fact, I hardly suspect you at all anymore. Of course, I won't completely let you off the hook; I am still wary and would hate to be completely misguided...again. Now, I haven't really had a reason to suspect Nogrod thus far, but your argument does seem quite clear. Nogrod still isn't at the top of my suspicion list, but I have bumped him from "possibly innocent" to "unsure." And I will be sure to take a good look at his future posts.

I would still like to analyze some possible suspects, but it is getting late, so I might not get that far before retiring for the night. I think I will get up earlier than normal to look deeper into this thread, as I have class in the afternoon and won't be back until an hour before deadline, which won't give me enough time to do any good analysis.

[Thinlómien]

People seem rather edgy and snappy considering that we're doing really well, one wolf dead and no dead innocents this far...

Even though I'm happy that no one died last night, I would almost have preferred someone dead. Before you start shouting: "Eek! She wants the wolves to kill us! Lynch her!" please listen to my reasoning . We outnumber the wolves right now quite clearly at this phase so it would not have been that horrible to lose one of us to gain evidence. I don't doubt there's plenty of evidence in yesterDay's voting and discussion - especially as the lynched one was a nasty lycanthrope - but kill evidence always gives some further information about the wolves' way of thinking and who are they afraid of/want to see dead, and thus clues of who they might be. But maybe it's good this way after all, the more innocents alive, the better for us, even one villager can make the difference. (So what was the point? I was just thinking aloud I guess... )

Roa, I find your analysis of Noggie extremely funny, but I've not yet decided whether I agree with it or not.

A longer post to come...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mac

2. Sixth for Glirdan ~ No way would a wolf have voted like this.

I'm not too sure. A cunning and bold wolf might. But I agree that a Sixthwolf wouldn't probably, since that sounds more like some experienced player's trick.
I don't like how Mac is trying to make everything too simple. This, and the things he said about me and Brinn. Kind of raises my eyebrows.

Just a little piece of advice for you, Sixth. If you think someone looks gifted, don't say it aloud, since the wolves might pick your gifted-suspect (that they'd not have noticed before) and if they too think s/he looks gifted, kill him/her.

As you can see I am a great Thinlomien supporter I'm afraid.

Haha, thank you.

What has happened to Gil??? I quite like his new self, and would not like voting him right now without strong judgement.

Originally Posted by Roa

Don't be so sure- it's happened before. Ask Lommy.

Don't ask me. I have traumas. (Not really. ) Even though that game might have something to do with the fact that I never want to be a wolf again... *shudders*
Anyway, enough with old, funny memories. Roa's right here. A wolf could very well do a thing like that.

I'm suspicious of TGWBS. I know I always am, but his actions yesterday were quite weird and eyebrow-raising. I will take a closer look at him before leaving.

I'll unfortunately have to leave and vote within an hour, I hope I manage to make a few posts before it.

edit: xed with Brinn

[Thinlómien]

Brinniel - I think she's innocent. I think she seems genuine when speaking about her "faults" and she's reasonable and has good points, especially that last post of hers was very interesting. This far, I have no reason to particularly suspect her.

Gil-Galad - Like I said, I like his new self. I don't know whether he's innocent or not, but as it's still early game and he isn't particularly suspicious I suggest we keep him around and see what happens... It's be a pity to "reward" him for his increased participation by lynching him. So this early, I won't be voting him unless he is clearly suspicious. Later, I won't be giving him any benefits.

Legate of Amon Lanc - He prances around like a hog on laughing gas. I hardly believe anything else than an ordo would be doing this. This is in contradiction with his late yesterday actions, which I find somewhat suspicious. I think he was not taking any stance and jumping around from one suspicion to another like a mad frog. (Sorry, Legate. ) Difficult to define...

Macalaure - He's far too hasty and edgy! Where has his normal, cozy self disappeared? Suspicious...

Mithalwen - I always have hard time suspecting her since her posting style - which is so sympathic and amusing - somehow always set my alarms off. She feels innocent, but Brinn has very good points about her possible guilt. So I think she's kind of "middle/gray zone" for me.

Nogrod - Unlike Roa, I think he seems mostly like his normal self. But that does ceratinly not mean he's innocent, he seems the same as a wolf too. Though I think he's maybe summarising more than he usually does this early in the game... hiding behind summaries? Anyway, it's such a minor thing I won't let it grab my attention. So all in all, Nogrod as well is in the "gray zone" for me.

Rikae - Could be any way. I honestly don't have any idea about her. Need s to be watched.

Roa_Aoife - Seems innocentish for her reasonableness and her day1 interactions with Glirdy. However, I think her cause against Noggie was a bit too fierce and slightly far-fetched. For example, she (IMO) totally unnecessarily attacks Nogrod's minor gut-suspections. Anyway, I think Roa seems more innocent than guilty.

the guy who be short - His case against me is quite stupid. I mean, he seems to try to make everything say suspicious in some way. He also seems to deliberatedly misunderstand Roa. Also Roa had good points against him.

The Sixth Wizard - Judging on his vote, Glirdy's vote for him and the general feel of him, he seems innocent-ish. I remain quite unsure about him, though, before I hear more of him and can make more solid conclusions.

xyzzy - Well not much to say but unless he starts posting more frequently, I wouldn't mind lynching him in such a easy situation for us as it's right now. (One wolf already dead, all innocents still alive.)

I'll probably be voting TGWBS or Mac, unless I get some last-minute-frenzy against Mith or Legate.

[Thinlómien]

++TGWBS

His case against me was ill-constructed.

Originally Posted by he

Isn't that what Roa, who she defends, was doing?

I was not defending Roa in general, and that should be easy to see. I said I found nothing wrong with her points. I didn't say that role talk is suspicious. If I had said so, I'd definitely be flip-floppery. But I said we shouldn't specualte about them too much, meaning that it's a secondary thing and gets the attention away from the important. Also, he deliberatedly seems to misinterpret Roa by saying she says gifteds shouldn't reveal. Furthermore, like Roa pointed out, he says that gifted-talk is no way helpful, but continues it himself. He seems very edgy/jumpy too.

And the worst crime, he's a conservatist...

Originally Posted by TGWBS

I am suspicious of Thinlomien for a number of factors. Observe-ye:
. . .
4. Tradition!

[Macalaure]

This is the one, I think.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Legate of Amon Lanc - He prances around like a hog on laughing gas. I hardly believe anything else than an ordo would be doing this. This is in contradiction with his late yesterday actions, which I find somewhat suspicious. I think he was not taking any stance and jumping around from one suspicion to another like a mad frog. (Sorry, Legate. ) Difficult to define...

edit: crossed

[Mithalwen]

There is something so outrageous about that ...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

There is something so outrageous about that ...

In what? Please Mith, if you could, tell us more often where or to what do you refer to...

[Mithalwen]

Sorry ... this really seems the most plausible.. I would love to be certain that we could win today but unless we have a cursed the odds are in our favour .. can't believe we would have more than one wolf .. though if we do this is almost sure fire....

++ Legate of Amon Lanc

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

This is the one, I think.

Oh yes, I know. I didn't like it when I saw it, but I didn't think it has any real value, and starting about it would be starting a fighting debate, which is what we don't need ever.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

This is a point with which I don't disagree at all! I must say I will be looking tgwbs much more closely toDay. He raised my suspicions yesterDay and this kind of stuff brings me back to suspect him even more. Good point.

Um, I only said it would've been a good move to save Glirdan, which is actually quite obvious, and not a very good point. And "His reasoning isn't the best" surely isn't.
It's weird you point this one out like that.


Concerning Brinniel, I think I'll buy her explanations for yesterday. I'll put her back to 'averagely suspicious'.


Roa's analysis, wow... truly excellent. *bows*
... and appetizing as well. Is anybody else fancying a waffle right now?


Let's have a look at Nog's voting situation:

If Nogrod is evil, then in all probability either tgwbs or Lommy aren't (4 wolves in a village of 13? No way.)

Case 1: Lommy is evil.
Wouldn't he have secretly welcomed my vote for tgwbs then? Sure he wouldn't be open about it, but why'd he be so adverse to it? I think an evil Nogrod would've reacted along the lines of "tgwbs? Hmm, yeah, well, maybe, what do the others think?" Unless.. he was already sure he wanted to do some backstabbing at this point, and my vote gave an alternative he didn't, in fact, welcome anymore.

Case 2: tgwbs is evil.
Nogrod's "tgwbs is suspicious but I will rather shoot into the dark than vote for him" looks horrible in this light. Actually, it looks almost too horrible and obvious.

Case 3: they're both innocent.
In that case, Nogrod had all the options he wanted to save Glirdan without drawing attention to himself. If we were talking about anybody else but Nogrod, I would probably dismiss this possibility, but Glirdan's game, where Wolfgrod lynched more wolves than the innocents did, still gives me shudders.

I'm really puzzled about Nogrod and looking forward to his reaction to Roa.

Originally Posted by Lommy

People seem rather edgy and snappy considering that we're doing really well, one wolf dead and no dead innocents this far...

You know, these are the tiny things that really make my alarms ring. Why, why, would an innocent say things along the lines of: "Oh, come on, we're doing well, let's just play it the easy way now"?


edit: crossed with Lommy's last two

[Nogrod]

I don't know what to say of Roa's little analysis... funny perhaps is the right word? But it also make me a bit more worried about Roa.

So why?

Firstly: The main argument seems to be that I waffle and am not decisve. I myself am more than suspicious of people who are very decisive on Day1's. Being decisive this early normally means that one has some knowledge we others don't have. Or that it's a wolf who tries to cover her/his tracks in a monomania.

Secondly: It looks like it is just a bit too fabricated. As I've said before, I know Roa to be an extremely good player and she really has an evil eye with her summarisings / analyses. But this is just not the quality I've used to. And even though I know she loves to show how good she is in making damning analyses, as a villager she would in the end wish to help us others and not try to artifically make points from where there are none.

Just a few corrections.

I'm a wolf because I didn't want to lynch tgwbs yesterDay? Now that would be quite stupid from a wolf-Noggie. Were he a wolf it would have been my best choice as it would look pretty good in my voting record and were he not I would have gotten rid of a formidable enemy quite easily leaving no suspicious tracks behind.

I brought Mac up because I thought he was acting suspiciously. That happened late in the game, not on the early stages. You can't suspect someone's actions before they act... Mac's early posting looked okay, his late posting didn't.

Why I was suddenly ready to go for Glirdy? Simply because it was a choice between him and Lommy. Both were shots in the dark for me, but I believe Lommy can make a difference if innocent - and she had acted reasonably, unlike Glirdy who had acted suspiciously.

Xyzzy then? Maybe all of you who make your points about that affair should read what was said about lynching him yesterDay once more before you continue? Mith suggested the "cynical idea" based on the possibility that he will not join the game in the first place (it would not have been the first time when a first-timer doesn't show up). I thought it worth considering as Mith said he had been online on Saturday the last time. I voiced my concern that there is a possibility he could show up on some phase of the game and then it would be cruel (although I don't know how long one could be allowed to not appear just because they are newbies). After Brinn told us about the birthday stuff, I decided not to pursue that track anymore.

[Nogrod]

I'm inclined to trust Brinn and The Sixth right now. And I have no major worries about Legate, Mith or Rikae. Xyzzy I can't say anything about.

Gil and Lommy are hard to judge. There are reasons to suspect them and there are reasons to judge them innocent. Need to look at them more closely toDay.

I have some slight concerns on Roa and Mac, but I don't believe (at least yet) that they could both be wolves so I must be wrong at least with the other one of them, possibly both.

tgwbs still tops my list of suspicions. Where is he now, anyway?

I'll be away for a few hours but will be back in good time to do some analysis - I hope to have time enough to look at Gil, Lommy, Roa and Mac - and of course tgwbs.

[the guy who be short]

Well, I'm here now.

I'll just say my general feelings, having read over the thread, before I go on to proper analysis of yesterday's going-ons and try to draw conclusions from them.

I am still suspicious of Lommy, and especially don't like the way she's voted for me again. More on that later. I'm also very wary of Roa, who has built a case against Nogrod out of air (or waffles). I think these two are likely to be a lupine pair.

Finally:

and honestly: do you think someone could "analyse" tgwbs in less than two minutes?).

17 years and they still don't know what's wrong with me!

[the guy who be short]

Edit: From above, I didn't mean "again." Lommy has only voted for me once so far, of course.

Lommy

She's just voted for me for voting for her with an "ill constructed" case. Retaliation is not in the village's interests, and I feel my case to be both justified and reinforced by her behaviour today.

Firstly, in her first post, she supports Roa's post about the gifteds. Rikae (sensibly, in my opinion) picks holes in Roa's argument, but Lommy thinks she's innocent too, merely misunderstanding. She attacks Glirdan for supporting Rikae's "feeblish accusations" - feeble-ish? It's a sound accusation. Roa advocates mistrust of any person revealing themselves as gifted; how is that possibly good? She then votes for Glirdan.

To me, with hindsight, this looks very much like a wolf-on-wolf vote. Lommy says her evidence is feeble, so she can distance herself from it in the future, but she still manages to vote for a fellow wolf. Saying her evidence is feeble also decreases the potential of the vote becoming a bandwagon.


In response to Lommy's post today:

I was not defending Roa in general, and that should be easy to see. I said I found nothing wrong with her points.

Same difference. If you agree with someone's points, you agree with them.

I didn't say that role talk is suspicious. If I had said so, I'd definitely be flip-floppery. But I said we shouldn't specualte about them too much, meaning that it's a secondary thing and gets the attention away from the important.

Fair enough. This is a problem is misinterpretation on my part; I thought the comment about role talk meant that Lommy thought role-talk in general should be discouraged.

Also, he deliberatedly seems to misinterpret Roa by saying she says gifteds shouldn't reveal.

She says we shouldn't trust anyone who reveals. Nice andh andy thing for a wolf to get into people's minds early.

Furthermore, like Roa pointed out, he says that gifted-talk is no way helpful, but continues it himself.

In response to others.

He seems very edgy/jumpy too.

That what Werewolf's about.

I'm also wary of the Lommy-fanclub that seems to be springing up, and think it's at least partly wolf-influenced.

[The Sixth Wizard]

if you think someone looks gifted, don't say it aloud, since the wolves might pick your gifted-suspect

Yeah, I'm aware, but sometimes I just kinda blurt stuff ou- FREE DAVID HICKS! Er, hehehe...

Seriously though, here comes my final opinion for the Day. I would have posted this before Lommy voted but had to go to swimming training for a couple of hours. A vote awaits!

Brinniel ~ May be a wolf, but not really suspicious at this point in time.

Gil-Galad ~ Accused me rather feebly with bad reasoning, then tried to back it up to Roa, calling her a suspect as well, and without any real evidence.

Legate of Amon Lanc ~ Originally suspects me openly, then retracts that when he sees no-one else agrees with him. Still suspicious, but I'll wait 'till later to vote 'im.

Macalaure ~ Complicated. Inclined to find out more.

Mithalwen ~ As mysterious as ever.

Nogrod ~ Voted for Glirdan, late in the Day. If I was a wolf, I sure wouldn't press home Glirdan and not gain much in the way of trust, so probably innocent.

Rikae ~ Also voted Glirdan, after Nogrod. Same as above.

Roa_Aoife ~ Sheesh, and you say Nogrod waffles ... teeny weeny bit suspicious...

the guy who be short ~ His vote yesterday is still very suspicious. He also didn't post much since then. Very close to voting him, don't know whether to join the Thinlomien bandwagon. . .

Thinlómien ~ It might be my death, killed by wolves, lynched after she gets lynched herself, but I still hold trust in our good ol' goat farmer. I still don't reckon she would have tried to get rid of Glirdan so soon in the game if she knew he was a wolf. And if she did, it sure hasn't paid off anyways.



...10 mins later, after reading TGWBS's post...

Yep, that's done it.

++ the guy who be short

By the way, that's probably my last message for the day.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I don't feel it right to just drop someone off of my list of suspects, but I guess it's the best I can do now if I am not to end in total confusion.

Six is not that case, however - I think him innocent based on his Glirdan voting.

Brinniel is what goes with the above. From many things she says, she could be a not-so-clever newbie wolf, since certain things she says wouldn't be much wise for a wolf to say. But I'd rather think her an innocent.

Tgwbs makes me slightly nervous. Though I thought him okay after his arguing with Roa at the end of page 1, some suspicions started to bubble inside me later then. On the other hand, last post (#143) of his has one significant thing about it: all the thoughts stated there correspond with my thoughts. Should I be worried, should you be worried (of my intelligence), or should I be happy?
Well, all thoughts, except for this:

Originally Posted by tgwbs

Rikae must be innocent.

Only simply saying that? These out-of-nowhere conclusions seem strange.

The same goes for Roa. I think she's okay, though she can be as much a wolf as innocent, I don't know her that good to tell this. On these two (her and tgwbs), I don't have any clear opinions formed.

Rikae At first I thought she might have been suspicious, later dropped it. The point is also that she voted for Glirdan at the moment Lommy was one vote ahead, and she herself admits she didn't have time to go through the posts of Day 1 before. A wolf who wouldn't know if there didn't appear a better suspect than Glirdan during the day would probably still try to vote for someone else, like catching the Lommy bandwaggon or voting on xyzzy and using the fact that she wasn't around as an excuse if the lynched proved innocent.

Gil-Galad looks like "normal" Gil-Galad, apart from his sudden burst of activity. Which might be just a momentary anomaly, like a sudden burst of activity in sun spots. Whatever the case, I am not able to learn anything "for" or "against" from his posts, so I am leaving him out now.

Mith. Seems innocent = this is the best word to use. She seems innocent, though she may be a very, very, very cleverly playing wolf. I'm gonna keep an eye on her, but I cannot lynch her just because she looks innocent

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Feel rather more positive today .... wolf gone... and it seems we have a good rangery type person ...

Excuse me, but I have the idea I'm missing something. I thought (judging from the admin thread) the wolves didn't agree on whom to vote, or didn't post it, or whatever, so from where the speaks of ranger? (Sorry if I am dumb.)

Of xyzzy I, obviously, cannot say anything.

This leaves my favourite suspects, Lommy, Nogrod, and newly emerged Mac. Unless something drastic happens, I'm going to focus on these three and pick one of them for my today vote.

Will be back and explain what and why.

[the guy who be short]

Post 3 - In role.

Post 8 - Accuses Roa on the back of Rikae's comments. Bear in mind that Day 1 is perfect for wolf-on-wolf suspicion.

Post 20 - Apologises to Roa. Now, this is interesting - he says he is suspicious of Lommy and Sixth for voting for him, but he says he is more worried about Sixth, and votes for him. If Lommy is a wolf, this could be Glirdan suspecting her for the future, but avoiding voting for a fellow wolf (Which at that point would mean 2 wolves on the voting list, 0 innocents).

And that's all he said.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The main argument seems to be that I waffle and am not decisve. I myself am more than suspicious of people who are very decisive on Day1's. Being decisive this early normally means that one has some knowledge we others don't have.

Caution is understandable, but what you did was rediculus. In fact, what you did looked like a wolf/cobbler throwing suspicion in as many directions as possible, waiting for one to bite. And while you had a perfectly good suspect, with more than enough evidence, you dropped it. You, who says "Day 1's are useful- we can catch a wolf on Day 1," were terribly indecisive, and that just doesn't match.

It looks like it is just a bit too fabricated.

A convenient catch all statement. But I see you avoid saying how.

I'm a wolf because I didn't want to lynch tgwbs yesterDay? Now that would be quite stupid from a wolf-Noggie. Were he a wolf it would have been my best choice as it would look pretty good in my voting record and were he not I would have gotten rid of a formidable enemy quite easily leaving no suspicious tracks behind.

At the time, TGWBS would have been in a three way tie for the lead. He was a possibilty, no ta sure thing. Perhaps you didn't want to risk two fellows at once. And it's not like voting Glirdan didn't have the same effect, except that Glirdan was more finalized.

I brought Mac up because I thought he was acting suspiciously. That happened late in the game, not on the early stages. You can't suspect someone's actions before they act... Mac's early posting looked okay, his late posting didn't.

Your reasons for suspecting Mac are as bad as TGWBS's reasons for suspecting Lommy, if not worse. He's suspicious becuase he left after he voted? Since when is that a mark of a wolf? And you went from suspecting him to trying to start a bandwagon in three posts. You could have just as easily asked people to help you lynch TGWBS, but you didn't. Becuase you didn't want to get rid of someone who could be a good ally? You said the same about Mac.

While it may seem rude, Glirdan, who has difficulty with suspicion and being present, is a much better sacrifice than TGWBS.

Why I was suddenly ready to go for Glirdy? Simply because it was a choice between him and Lommy. Both were shots in the dark for me, but I believe Lommy can make a difference if innocent - and she had acted reasonably, unlike Glirdy who had acted suspiciously.

Saving an innocent and voting a wolf? How perfect for you. Of course you couldn't vote Lommy to save Glirdan- you had said that she looked innocent and that you wouldn't vote for her with out better evidence. It would be a huge contradiction. With Glirdan, on the other hand, you had at least opened the door a few posts back when it looked like no one else would go for your attempted bandwagons.

What I really don't understand is why you tried to bandwagon for two people who had almost no evidence against them, but not for the one person for whom you had expressed any real suspicion.

Edit: Crossed with Gil

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I only just read through the today's posts, so these are just immediate reactions to what I marked down while reading them through. (revising it, it is quite chaotic) Will follow after some time with forming my opinions on everyone.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

8. Mith for Xyzzy ~ This looks like throwing away, but she was encouraging everybody to follow her vote. I think it looks quite innocentish.

I marked this one, since saying "it looks quite innocentish" is quite easy way to dispatch the case. Though I wasn't suspicious about Mith for that, I would look for any possible connection between Mith&Mac, just to be sure.

Mac's post reminded me yet of something Lommy said yesterday, I marked it, so I post it here:

Originally Posted by Lommy

He looks quite bad. (Though possibly he looks too bad to be a real baddie. )

This is why I suspected Lommy in the first place. I think generally, ambivalence is the typical sign of werewolfery. "Oh, I would vote this [fellow wolf], but perhaps I am just too suspicious." "I don't know about this [innocent villager], but I just am not sure."

The problem is: a) It might be quite stupid of Lommy being a wolf to say such things as above. b) Voted for her comrade? It's dangerous because someone might jump the bandwaggon and she couldn't know the vote on Glirdan would be safe, on the other hand, early votes go often out later in the day. How could she know if the vote will win? Be she a wolf or not, true is, what Mac says, that she probably had no better option to vote at that moment. (and I don't see anything suspicious on Mac saying that... who said that? Roa?)

Originally Posted by Six

I don't think Thinlomien was using some wolf kill wolf strategy. I think that might just be a bit too open on the first day.

But she didn't know at that time, so it actually wasn't open at all. It might have played to her favor that she didn't have enough time. Cf. above.

Originally Posted by Roa

Sixth looks most innocent (especially given Glirdan's reaction)

I agree with this, though for me better argument than Glirdan's reaction is that he was one to join the Glirdan bandwaggon. If he didn't, the solitary vote of Lommy might have gone unnoticed or whatever... so I don't think Sixth guilty now. While I suspected him yesterday, I didn't want to vote for him for the "killing newbies is not nice" reason, and now, since Glirdan proved to be a wolf, I think him innocent. Though by this reason I would consider Lommy innocent as well, she was the first one to vote for Glirdan and could not be sure what it will produce, cf. above, so this suspicion lasts.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Oh, now I see why there wasn't a wolf kill. It still does give us an advantage, anyway!

You see why there wasn't a wolf kill? Tell us, why?

Oh, and one thing I just have to add:

Originally Posted by xyzzy

Who's Lommy? Is that the Thin-something-or-another-with-non-English-characters-thrown-in guy?

Yes, she is that guy.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy's last two and Mac's

[Brinniel]

For a big chunk of the end of Day One, there was a discussion on whether to vote for xyzzy. As of right now, I feel pretty confident that at least one wolf was involved in this debate.

Here are some quotes that come from this discussion:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So if it looks like pure random or very improbable in the end we should perhaps consider Xyzzy?

Originally Posted by Mac

It seems like Xyzzy hasn't realised that the game has started. Lynching newbies on Day One is not nice.

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, I would say this is not nice if xyzzy plans to show yet - maybe he has some troubles we don't know about...

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I know it is not "nice" and that it is cynical and if htey had logged on more recently I wouldn't have suggested it but I will seriously consider doing so if I don't become more certain of the guilt of the current votees ..

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Anyways, I don't intend on voting for him. I do not like to vote for people who have not had the chance to speak. Let us wait and see if he shows up toMorrow, and then we can come up with a decision.

Originally Posted by Legate

what do you think about xyzzy? Is there a possibility to vote for him, or are we leaving this out? I am for that if nothing, it would not harm the village - probably. But if someone else, then someone else... just to know who to vote for.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I know I will be thought a hard hearted witch for this but I think I am still seriouly considering going for Xzzy.....

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I think it would be a waste of toDay to vote xyzzy, when we can vote for someone who is actually suspicious. I plan to give him at least another Day to show up and I ask that everyone else does the same.

Originally Posted by Legate

it seems that it's up to us whether to lynch or not xyzzy. For this, I'd maybe reconsider and wait. Reversing Nogrod's theory, he's 10/13 an ordo, so even if he does not do anything, he is still an ordo to count against the wolf numbers

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

his is cruel but I would rather hang fire on TGWBS and take my chance - Brinniel we don't have later ...
++ Xyzzy

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If there is to be a Xyzzy vote, I might consider joining it as the other possibilities look quite problematic.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Nothing else to do now. Better to shoot at darkness with Glirdy than Lommy.
++ Glirdan

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, if you said earlier, I might have voted for xyzzy. I hope I'm not wrong.

Oh geez, that's a lot of quotes... But it basically summarizes the entire discussion.

Okay, we do not know for sure whether xyzzy is innocent, but for right now let's theorize in the instance that he is...

Mac and I were the only two who were directly against voting for him. Mac didn't want to kill off a newbie on Day One and I wanted to give him another chance to show up. I have no regrets about my stance to not lynch him yet, and I still think it was for a good reason.

Legate, however, seemed a bit confused on whether or not to vote for him. He thought about it, but ended up deciding to wait and voted instead for Lommy. After Mithalwen's vote, he again switched back to thinking he should've voted for xyzzy, but by then it was too late. I suppose we could keep an eye on Legate, but I don't think what happened here makes him seriously suspicious. He seems more like an innocent caught in the middle of confusion on who to vote for and feeling a rushed with the deadline only minutes away.

Nogrod was the one who originally came up with the idea to vote xyzzy, and Mithalwen followed in agreement, though she was the only one who ended up voting for him. Now if xyzzy is innocent, then a werewolf Nogrod or Mithalwen, or even both, would knowingly push for the lynching of an innocent, using his absence as an excuse.

If Mithalwen were a wolf, she could play her innocence saying she voted for xyzzy because she was rushed and unsure on who else to vote for, and she'd rather vote for an absent innocent than a present one. Seems like a good excuse...or a credible cover.

Now let's say if Nogrod is a wolf, whether he is one with Mithalwen or not, the most sensible thing for him to do is to separate himself from her and her single vote for xyzzy and vote someone else instead. Now it seems unlikely that a werewolf would send a fellow wolf to his grave, but if Roa is right in her theory, then it makes perfect sense. After all, what better way to lose suspicion than to vote for the werewolf?

If Mithalwen or Nogrod are wolves, then why would Mithalwen vote xyzzy over tgwbs and Nogrod vote Glirdan over Lommy? Of course, the most obvious answer could be that either Lommy or tgwbs are wolves. But then, we also must remember at this time Lommy and tgwbs were tied in votes with Glirdan. If either had voted for one of them, they could've easily helped to seal the fate of an innocent...which could end up directing suspicion towards them.

Alright, I know this is a major theory I have here, and while I may quite possibly be completely off, I still think we should keep it into consideration. It's probably very unlikely that both of them are wolves, though it could happen. If one of them is a wolf, then I think it is more likely to be Mithalwen based on her voting.

I'm still considering Gil and Rikae as slightly suspicious (perhaps this comes from more of a hunch than anything), but since I do not immediately see any major evidence going against them as of right now, and I would like to go to bed, I will not worry about them until later.

EDIT: X-ed with Lommy