Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[xyzzy]

Edit: What are you talking about? I didn't accidently discuss the game at night outside the thread at night.

A wizard did it.

[Meneltarmacil]

Xyzzy, please discuss issues of that sort on the admin thread. It's nighttime here, so players can't post on this thread right now.

[Meneltarmacil]

OK, I'm starting Day 2. Nobody has died. You may begin posting.

[Nogrod]

I have a suggestion. I hope you agree with it.

So how about we just make a deal that no one discusses the events of the last Night and uses none of the information s/he might have gained, direct or indirect, as evidence or reason to back up any of her/his views in-game?

The other possibility surely is that we exploit all there is, but I think that would not be wise if we wish to maintain something like a fair play here.

Surely everyone is allowed to make her/his deductions of things that have happened outside the game-thread - I have done a lot myself already. But let us try to not use them as arguments in-game and try to find other ways to make our points about suspicions and feeling easier about people?

Ok?

[Macalaure]

Here are a few things I've been thinking about during the night. It doesn't take into account anything that happened around the deadline. It's mainly a look at the votes and a closer look at two suspicious ones.


So...

1. Lommy for Glirdan ~ Suspicious, more beneath.

2. Sixth for Glirdan ~ No way would a wolf have voted like this.

3. Glirdan for Sixth ~ -/-

4. Roa for tgwbs ~ I agree with her reasoning for tgwbs and would call it an innocentish vote, though with Roa you can never be sure.

5. Gil for Lommy ~ What can you say about this? I never know what to do with Gil. I'll leave him to you.

6. tgwbs for Lommy ~ If he's evil, then this vote would have been good move to save Glirdan. His reasoning isn't the best.

7. Mac, that's me, for tgwbs ~ I admit that, if Lommy is evil, then this vote looks really, really ugly.


Now it's Glirdan 2, Lommy 2, tgwbs 2 and the interesting part begins. I rule out the possibility that Glirdan, Lommy and tgwbs are our wolves. Their early Day One behaviour would've been too suicidal. I think it's quite possible that one of the latter two is the second wolf, which gives a high probability that the third wolf (assuming that is their number) was still out there at this time, thinking how he could save Glirdan and the other. Would you vote the innocent one and risk looking bad yourself later, or throw your vote away and hope the best?


8. Mith for Xyzzy ~ This looks like throwing away, but she was encouraging everybody to follow her vote. I think it looks quite innocentish.

9. Legate for Lommy ~ One could look at this as an attempt to save Glirdan, but his suspicions of Lommy seem honest.

10. Rikae for Glirdan ~ No wolvish vote, as it puts Glirdan back into the running.

11. Brinn for Roa ~ Suspicious, more beneath.

12. Nogrod for Glirdan ~ The vote looks good if Lommy is innocent, of course, and if we had a combo of Glirdan-Lommy-Nogrod, then he wouldn't have attacked my vote for tgwbs like he did. I regard his vote as innocentish, though I don't forget that the evil Nogrod has a history of backstabbing his comrades.



On Lommy: Her vote looks too smooth for my liking. I sense some wolf-on-wolf-action here. Lommy had to vote early, and if she's evil she had to put up a vote that would be defendable later on. For both, evil and good Lommy, voting Glirdan was the only real option. Also, it looks like she was voting him while disencouraging everbody else to follow her:

Originally Posted by Lommy, on different posts

He is suspicious, but I'm not sure if he's guilty.
He looks quite bad. (Though possibly he looks too bad to be a real baddie. )
I must say that the evidence against him is in a way quite feeble

On Brinniel: Her first post when she returned is a defence of Glirdan (and Lommy!), this especially looks not well:

Glirdan: Yes, his behaviour earlier was a bit odd, but too often the ones who seem so obviously suspicious turn out to be innocent.

She then votes Roa, a throwaway vote, especially when there are no retractions. She doesn't want to vote Glirdan and Lommy. She says she doesn't want to vote tgwbs because she has no time and wants to examine him later. Wouldn't it have been better to look at tgwbs now and Roa later, given the vote count? Of course, this is only Brinn's second game, so this is really not definite evidence, but if Lommy xor tgwbs are a wolf, then Brinniel could well be the third.



Conclusion (concerning votes, not overall suspicion):


suspicious ~ Lommy, Brinn

somewhat suspicious ~ tgwbs

unsure ~ Gil, Legate

somewhat innocent ~ Roa, Rikae, Nogrod

innocent ~ Sixth, Mith

[Nogrod]

I must both agree and disagree with you Macalaure.

Originally Posted by Mac

For both, evil and good Lommy, voting Glirdan was the only real option.

I think so too. But things being thus, I can't see it as an argument towards her guilt in any way. You say she discouraged others to follow her way. True in a sense. But that depends on how we interpret her "doubts" about her vote. I must say - had I been in her position - I would have done exactly the same: said that sadly I have to vote now and there are no other sensible candidates to vote but I'm afraid lynching Glirdy on Day1 doesn't normally produce good things.

That said, I wouldn't still say Lommy is an innocent. As I said, as forced to make the decision I wished to shoot in the dark with Glirdy more than Lommy (and miraculously it paid off!), but I hope there will be some light with Lommy toDay. There is too little of anything from her yet to make any balanced decision.

About Brinn I'd say the same thing, yes and no.

She then votes Roa, a throwaway vote, especially when there are no retractions. She doesn't want to vote Glirdan and Lommy. She says she doesn't want to vote tgwbs because she has no time and wants to examine him later. Wouldn't it have been better to look at tgwbs now and Roa later, given the vote count?

You're right that her vote for Roa looks pretty weird. Probably too weird as any wolf would know that that kind of voting raises too many eyebrows? But your second point is a bit unfair I'd say. It looks like she was getting into looking at Roa about 15 minutes before the deadline when there still were 6 people who had not voted and two votes were the highest. So the vote count on that moment was not what it was when she voted two minutes before the DL (and honestly: do you think someone could "analyse" tgwbs in less than two minutes?). So I must say that your point looks a bit fabricated.

That said, her decision in the end to vote for Roa is quite odd. Here I do agree.

Originally Posted by Mac

tgwbs for Lommy ~ If he's evil, then this vote would have been good move to save Glirdan. His reasoning isn't the best.

This is a point with which I don't disagree at all! I must say I will be looking tgwbs much more closely toDay. He raised my suspicions yesterDay and this kind of stuff brings me back to suspect him even more. Good point.

[The Sixth Wizard]

Well hello fellow Were-wolvers! I am back once again a mere hour past the switch...

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I would suggest to not be too strict about my companion in wizardry, the Sixth Wizard. It's not nice to lynch somebody on the first Day of his first game, especially when he's no longer there to defend himself.

Hark! A voice of reason!

Originally Posted by Nogrod

...Lommy: Voted for the one that was clearly (to my mind at least) the most suspicious-looking at the time of her vote. Were she a wolf she would admittedly have brains to do the same. But lynching on Day1 a player who could be of a big help later just because of that is IMHO very short-sighted. Proposing that is almost lupine...

...Glirdan: I don't like "retaliatory" voting at all and think it's a safe position to the wolves to hide as many tend to "understand" that kind of thing. But in the end - thinking of the cause of the villagers - it's pretty counter-productive as a villager should only try to get the wolves, not to retaliate....

...tgwbs: This I find somewhat suspicious or at least unnerving. He had time to play and took actively part in it but then decided to go for his first suspicion (quite weakly built case - and if one thinks of it - not an obvious choise of an innocent villager). Sad to say, but in the last game he was voting in a similar-feeling detached manner. I suspected him of that then and he turned out to be a wolf. . .

Speaking of shorty , we should probably now suspect those who were kinda agreeing with Glirdan. Reading back over the posts:

I don't think Thinlomien was using some wolf kill wolf strategy. I think that might just be a bit too open on the first day. Just my opinion.

TGWBS was suspicious against Lommy and Lommy was anti-Glirdan. Plus he was suspicious about me! (the nerve ) He then has a go at Mac, and Roa (innocents I think), and proceeds to vote for Lommy. I am pretty sure he's a werewolf, myself.

Legate probably not. But he does say TGWBS is honest, which I am sure he is not.

Gil-galad voted for Lommy but I don't think he's a werewolf.

Mithalwen seems to be one of the good guys. So's Roa.

Brinniel: I think this might be our wolf. In a vote for Roa maybe she's trying to take some of the heat off Glirdan. That's not very concealed, but it's her second game...

Nogrod, good guys. Rather a voice of reason. Gifted?

As you can see I am a great Thinlomien supporter I'm afraid.


So my opinions are that TGWBS, Legate(?) and Brin are the most likely in my mind to be werewolves at this stage in the game.

[xyzzy]

...I'm startlingly confused.

So, TGWBS sounds dangerous. Who's Lommy? Is that the Thin-something-or-another-with-non-English-characters-thrown-in guy? Wow, I'm confused...

I think I'll probably vote for TGWBS, another individual with whom I'm not familiar, but not immediately, in case something new comes up.

Originally Posted by The Sixth Wizard

Gil-galad voted for Lommy but I don't think he's a werewolf.

Which one - GG or Lommy?

[Brinniel]

After voting Roa yesterday, I ended up kicking myself...hard. Yes, she was the most suspicious for me at the time, but after I posted, I realized how dumb and suspicious I was making myself look with a throwaway vote. My second choice probably would've been to vote Glirdan, and while I still thought him innocent then, I would've rather had him lynched than possibly innocent Lommy and tgwbs, who both could be very helpful if they are on our side. Yet, I already said I wouldn't vote Glirdan and I don't like changing my word without a good enough reason.

When I first started ww, I thought I'd be so good at sniffing out the wolves...how wrong I was. Glirdan reminded me of Manwe from the last game, who turned out innocent. I honestly did not think a werewolf would act so obviously suspicious. Apparently, I'm quite terrible at this...

Anyways, the lynching of a werewolf Glirdan, has indeed helped me come up with some thoughts:

Mac stated this early on in response to Legate:

There are more stupid wolves than one might think

His comment points out that there are in fact wolves who do put out an odd behaviour and act suspicious. At a time when Glirdan was acting so obviously suspicious, I don't think a fellow wolf would point that out. This makes Mac seem more innocent to me.

Lommy was the first to vote for Glirdan, not followed long after by Sixth. While both had no choice but to vote earlier on, I do not think either would pull a wolf on wolf vote so early in the game when no one else has even voted. I feel pretty sure both are innocent. Of course, I've been pretty off so far, so who knows...

Yesterday, I felt pretty suspicious about Roa, but now I know that Glirdan was a werewolf, I think my suspicions were quite misguided. Early on, there was a misunderstanding between the two where Glirdan jumps on Roa, and Roa retaliates. Now, of course misunderstandings can happen between wolves, most certainly to misguide us innocents, but I do not think they would attempt this within the first few posts of Day One. Glirdan's attitude towards Roa and vice versa makes me think her much less suspicious than before, and unless something dramatically changes toDay, I do not think I will vote for her again for now.

Later, I will go back and look through yesterDay's posts and look for suspicious players.

Well, we're down one wolf...two more to go? Ah..that's the difficult thing about these mystery roles. Boy, will we be lucky if we catch another toDay. Already, I see the suspicions towards me coming, and so in my defense, I will honestly state that Day One was a completely misguided Day for me. Do not take my stupidity and poor judgements for werewolfery. And hopefully toDay I will be slightly (or rather, a lot) more accurate in figuring out who the werewolf might be...

[Rikae]

We got one!
What was that you were saying last night, Legate? ...

Since we have no kill today, I'm assuming the wolves' intended victim was protected? Kudos to our ranger - nice work!

I still find TGWBS suspicious, as I did yesterday. His vote tying Lommy with Were-Glirdan only makes him look worse, but more suspicious still is Brinniel, who starts off day one by posting an 'empty' post (not necessarily suspicious, as I've pointed out); promises not to vote for a wolf (along with a passel of others), and when the lynchee is definitely Glirdan, she posts this:

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Because I think tgwbs may be as innocent as Lommy.
And I promised not to vote Glirdan.
EDIT: X-ed with Menel. Sorry...

What? As innocent as Lommy? I don't find Lommy especially suspicious, but we certainly don't know she's innocent...(perhaps Brinniel does?); and, now that the jig is up, she won't say she thinks Glirdan is innocent, no, certainly not "as innocent as Lommy" or "innocent as TBWBS"! Only that she promised not to vote for him.

I'm inclined to think Sixth and Nogrod are innocent because of their votes yesterday.

EDIT: x'd with Brinniel.

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, I made it. Since 4 of the 13 villagers (by my count) voted Glirdan, I wonder if a wolf might not be hiding among them in a safe spot. I'm going to do an analysis on them, and if I have time, I'll be back with more.

IN the mean time, here's a list of who thought Glirdan was innocent, who expressed suspicion of him (not necessarily voting for him), and who ignored him all together:

Unsure/Innocent
Rikae
Thinlomien
Brinniel
Mith

Suspicion
Roa
Sitxh Wizard
Mac
Nogrod

Not mentioned
TGWBS
Gil
Xyzzy

Mentioned only
Legate

Back soon, hopefully.

[Roa_Aoife]

Glirdan Voters-
Lommy, 1st vote, put Glirdan in running
Sixth Wizard, 2nd vote, gave him a definite lead
Rikae, 3rd vote, put Glirdan in lead again
Nogrod, 4th vote, changed no positions

Strictly by placement of the votes, Sixth looks most innocent (especially given Glirdan's reaction), followed by Rikae, then Lommy. Nogrod's vote doesn't make him suspicious, per se, but it doesn't clear him either, especially, since, as a wolf, he would be doing the safest possible thing he could do. So, I'll start with him and the move backward in my suspicion list, finishing with Sixth. *buckles in for a long ride* I'll be back shortly.

[Gil-Galad]

time for my math to come in now...


1. Lommy for Glirdan

2. Sixth for Glirdan

3. Glirdan for Sixth

4. Roa for tgwbs

5. Gil for Lommy

6. tgwbs for Lommy

7. Mac for tgwbs

8. Mith for Xyzzy

9. Legate for Lommy

10. Rikae for Glirdan

11. Brinn for Roa

12. Nogrod for Glirdan

Lommy, sixth, nogrod and rikae are the only ones to have voted for Glirdan, so by following the math, they obviously tend to be the more innocent ones then. what bugs me the most about yesterday is the irractic voting from alot of people, usually bandwagons spring up.

Mithalwen and Brinniel both voted for somebody that was not really under specualtion, it could be that they were confused vilalgers not knowing who exactly to vote for or desperate wolves trying to waste votes...

another thing that bugs me today, is Macalaures post, is it a conicendence that your inncoent list contains Mith and Sixth, which if i do math again, included your self will equal the remaining wolves? (i'm uncertain right now of how many wolves we have in the vilalge, is it three or four?) if it is indeed only 3 wolves then i will proabaly let this accusation slide. but if it is four then that would explain for sixth, trying to be sneaky on his first time. also, Glirdan vote for sixth, as a safety thing, would then draw suspicion off of Sixth who may be a wolf

in conclusion, here is my list... which i stole from mac's post

suspicious ~ Lommy, sixth

somewhat suspicious ~ Mithalwen, Macalaure

unsure ~ Tgwbs, Legate,

somewhat innocent ~ Roa, Rikae, Nogrod, Xyzzy



also, Glirdan vote for sixth, as a safety thing, would then draw suspicion off of Sixth who may be a wolf. i can't beleive i almsot forgot this, but it makes os much sense.

Glirdan = wolf

Glirdan voted for sixth after he himself received 2 votes, so he could try and save a fellow wolf by voting for them, thus drawing any suspicion off of sixth.

Sixth = wolf?

still to be determined, but i'm fairly certain my vote will be on Sixth... i don't like that tricky buisness glirdan has left behind for us to do...