Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Lalaith]

I'm delighted that one of my trio of suspects has bit the dust, even though it was a shame that the lynch was conducted through somewhat unorthodox means.

I am still, after yesterday's messy events, unshaken in my beliefs. I find Rah-rah ras-Saucie incredibly wolflike and Durelin also - I refer for reasons to my post 473 of yesterday. Added to which - Saucie's bare-faced deviousness of yesterday and Durelin's non-reading-of posts admission.
I'm sorry, missy, but there's only two WW games where I haven't at some point when I've had the time, read all posts closely. Once was when I was a wolf, when I knew everyone's identity, and just skimmed looking for stuff to frame people with, and once when I was a lover, when it was a similar scenario, my wolf-lover Ang told me everyone's identity. In all other games - as in this one - I was a clueless innocent, reading everything because I don't know who the culprits are and I'm desperate to know, combing the thread for clues. You're a smart girl, and if you're not reading posts properly there can be only one reason.

The fourth wolf I am less sure of, but I think it can be found among (in order of suspicion) Mith, Kitanna and Kath.
Mith - I don't mind her voting for me all the time, but aside from saying, on day one, that I was acting funny, she's never given a reason except she's always suspected me. Which is kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Plus she and Saucie should by rights have had a row by now and they haven't.

Kitanna - hmm, mixed feelings. Her post 471 seems to be a helpful villager and her reason for voting for me was so wolf-like it was almost innocent, if you get my drift.

Kath - well there is dodgy stuff about her (again refer to 473) but in her favour I think it was she who first pointed out Durelin's not-reading-posts thing.

I still think Lommy and Gil are innocent. In fact, Lommy, if you are a Faithful, frankly you deserve to win as far as I'm concerned, rarely have I seen such a convincing display of innocence. I am reasonably confident about Legate, and I am ambivalent about Hookbill.

Unless something very dramatic happens, call me Yusopov. Much as I enjoyed the little ding-dong with Saucie yesterday, any innocent analysing it should see how darned devious he was being. I will fight to get him lynched today.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I feel rather strange being here as, by rights, I should not be. Luckily we are in much better shape than we were (or would have been, but for the Grace of Mod ), but there is still much work to be done.

I see that Lalaith is jumping to unfortunate conclusions again.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Much as I enjoyed the little ding-dong with Saucie yesterday, any innocent analysing it should see how darned devious he was being.

I was merely correcting your misquoting and misrepresentation of me, and, I might add, feeling better about my vote as I did so.

But, unlike you, I am not going to prejudge without looking at the evidence. And we have a lot more to go on now that we have nailed a Faithful. I am going to review yesterDay's votes, and then I am going to go back over the votes on previous Days to see who voted for TGWBS, who he voted for, and at what time. We should also look to see what he said about people and vice versa, and I hope to get to that too. I know that he said that he felt me to be most likely innocent, and that Manwe and Gil were his main stated suspects, but there are some who I can hardly recall him mentioning.

I should imagine that it is going to be a lot quieter around here without Nogrod. It's a shame that the Ranger didn't take a punt on leaving him unprotected the Night before, but I can understand why s/he didn't.

I'm off to look at the votes but, in the meantime, here they are:

Gil-Galad: ++TGWBS (TGWBS 1)
Lommy: ++Durelin (TGWBS 1, Durelin 1)
TGWBS: ++Gil-Galad (TGWBS 1, Durelin 1, Gil-Galad 1)
SpM: ++Lalaith (TGWBS 1, Durelin 1, Gil-Galad 1, Lalaith 1)
Mithalwen: ++Lalaith (TGWBS 1, Durelin 1, Gil-Galad 1, Lalaith 2)
Kitanna: ++Lalaith (TGWBS 1, Durelin 1, Gil-Galad 1, Lalaith 3)
Kath: ++SpM (TGWBS 1, Durelin 1, Gil-Galad 1, Lalaith 3, SpM 1)
Hookbill: ++SpM (TGWBS 1, Durelin 1, Gil-Galad 1, Lalaith 3, SpM 2)
Nogrod: ++TGWBS (TGWBS 2, Durelin 1, Gil-Galad 1, Lalaith 3, SpM 2)
Lalaith: ++TGWBS (TGWBS 3, Durelin 1, Gil-Galad 1, Lalaith 3, SpM 2)
Durelin: ++Legate (TGWBS 3, Durelin 1, Gil-Galad 1, Lalaith 3, SpM 2, Legate 1)
Durelin: --Legate, ++SpM (TGWBS 3, Durelin 1, Gil-Galad 1, Lalaith 3, SpM 3)
Lalaith: --TGWBS, ++SpM (TGWBS 2, Durelin 1, Gil-Galad 1, Lalaith 3, SpM 4)

Did not vote: Legate, Manwe

[The Saucepan Man]

Gil-Galad: Voted for TGWBS, apparently having been swayed by Nogrod’s case against him. Possibly a Faithful-on-Faithful vote but unlikely as there was a fair bit of focus on TGWBS at the time. Even more unlikely in light of TGWBS’ vote for him. Then again, Gil is a law unto himself when innocent and I reckon that he would be the same when guilty. Still no idea about him, but I am not currently inclined to vote for him.

Lommy: Voted for Durelin, having suspected her before and having felt that Nogrod brought up good points about her. As I said yesterDay, if Durelin is a Faithful then, in light of this vote, Lommy is most likely innocent. And since I believe Durelin to be a Faithful, I am feeling a lot more comfortable about Lommy.

Mithalwen: Voted for Lalaith on the basis of her ongoing suspicion. With a few exceptions, Mith has voted pretty consistently for Lalaith. It’s a characteristic Wolfish/Faithful voting pattern, although dangerous if the “suspect” is lynched and turns out innocent. For that reason, I somehow doubt that a Faithful Mith would have voted for an innocent Lalaith yesterDay, with suspicion gathering around Lal the way it was. And, although I still have serious reservations about Lalaith, I don't see it as a Faithful-on-Faithful vote either. Mith remains low in my suspicions.

Kitanna: Voted for Lalaith on the basis of her “gut feel“ and also, I think, because of Lalaith’s vote for Brinniel, having stated that she was not one of her top suspects. Depends whether Lalaith is a Faithful or not, really, as this does not look at all like a Faithful-on-Faithful vote to me. I have been unsure about Kitanna throughout, but I was somewhat comforted by her contributions yesterDay. The jury’s still out for me on Kitanna.

Kath: Voted for me on the basis that I claimed Durelin was defending me, when she thought that she was not, and so thought me to be twisting Durelin’s words. Actually, it was Nogrod who claimed that Durelin was defending me and, from what I saw, I agreed with him. So it looks to me like it was Kath who was misrepresenting the position. I had felt better about Kath yesterDay, but this vote tweaks my suspicion meter big time.

Hookbill: Voted for me, apparently on the basis of instinct, putting me on 2 votes to Lal’s 3. Claiming “instinct” seems to me to be a very convenient way of avoiding having to state any reasons (unless, of course, you are Valier and have a proven track record ). I know that I am innocent, so I find this vote to be distinctly suspicious. I was wary of Hookbill before and I am even more so now.

Lalaith: Voted for TGWBS, putting him on 3 votes, level with herself and one ahead of me, then retracted at the last moment to vote for me (which should have seen me done for). If she is a Faithful, this was a strange vote since I would have expected her to vote for me. That said, I do not discount the possibility that she thought TGWBS the more likely to be lynched, took the opportunity to gain some credit for helping to do so and then, when she saw the opportunity to save the both of them, took it. In any event, she knew that she had her retraction (although she left it fairly late). I still find her extremely suspicious, particularly for her behaviour yesterDay, but this vote has me wondering.

Durelin: Voted for Legate and then quickly retracted and voted for me. Have there ever been two more suspicious votes cast in such quick succession? This looks to me like she hastily decided to put in a safe vote, then promptly thought better and took the opportunity to try to get me lynched. To my mind, these votes pretty much confirm my suspicions of her.

Legate: Did not vote, which I don’t like at all, but he has explained it on the Admin thread.

Now back to look at the previous Day’s votes in light of TGWBS’s unmasking.

[Gil-Galad]

well my suspicions on TGWBS were right...


and now, my suspicons are still casted on SPM and Durelin now and with our list of known innocents all but depleted, this shall be a difficult day ahead of us...

[Durelin]

Well, regardless of the circumstances in which TGWBS was killed, that was quite lucky. Except that of the main lynch targets Sauce was the one I really thought was a wolf...and still do.

Lalaith - I am flattered that you have confidence in my intelligence, but regardless of how well I might use my brain, I often don't like to. I have a lazy streak a mile wide. And I think I'm best qualified to admit that. It's the truth. It's also the truth that I do not read all the posts in the RPGs I'm in, and considering RPing is pretty much my biggest passion...well, that should clue you in to my laziness.

Your only proof against the truth of my statement is based on your own person gaming habits, which have absolutely nothing to do with me.

It's pretty sad that the only things anyone's really used against me is: 1. I said "yay" 2. something about Sauce 3. An admittance to not reading all the posts in WW games.

We need to be careful, people! At seven against three if we start on another innocent-lynching streak we'll quickly be screwed.

I was leaning more towards your innocence, Lalaith, particularly since you have been going after SPM, who I think to be a wolf, but the way you jump on something so baseless as me saying that I don't read all the posts in the thread?

I went back to look to see if Kath had brought that up, and I saw nothing of the sort, so perhaps your admission that as an innocent you read the thread carefully is false, as well?

I just had a crazy idea about Gil: he and TGWBS had a nice little stand-off yesterDay, but I'm pretty sure it was the first time the two really even acknowledged each other much. Was it a *last minute* attempt to separate themselves, spurred by Nogrod's assertion of TGWBS's, along with that of Sauce and myself? And Gil even takes the time to come back and give a bit of reason to his vote, and address TGWBS briefly. Why the change in approach?

Something to consider.

Gil - Continued suspicion of me? Since when have you even mentioned me? Oh, and I'm afraid we are completely out of known innocents.

Kitanna is becoming a more interesting case to me. I don't think TGWBS even mentioned her, or she him, except I think he said something about her being quiet, but it not being her fault. She's been one of those suspected all along, but not really ones...though I guess pretty much everyone now falls into that category.

Well, I predict toDay will mostly consist of SPM's double and triple posting.

My main suspects: Sauce, Kitanna, Gil. I really hope we can hear more from Legate and Lommy.

[The Saucepan Man]

Day 1

TGWBS’s took the safe option and voted for Garin. No one voted for TGWBS. So that doesn’t tell us much.

Day 2

TGWBS voted for Brinniel, which doesn’t tell us much either.

Lommy voted early for TGWBS, having expressed pretty strong suspicion of him. Unlikely to have been a vote for a fellow Faithful, so this too makes me feel better about her. She was the only villager to vote for TGWBS that Day.

Day 3

TGWBS voted again for Brinniel, but then retracted and cast his vote for Manwe. He was pretty consistent in voting for innocents, which leads me to think slightly more favourably of Gil-Galad.

No one voted for TGWBS.

Day 4, I have dealt with above.

Well, that wasn’t particularly helpful, I am afraid. Looking back again, however, I am reminded of Durelin’s early vote on Day 1 for Manwe, who presented himself as a rather obvious target in the opening stages, but who we now know was innocent. It looks to me like Durelin who was the one “testing the water” for his possible lynching. She later retracted and voted for Garin when he presented himself an even better target.

[Durelin]

I retracted my vote to save the Seer, Sauce. I had no way of knowing that everyone would come out of the woodwork at the last minute, and that a switch to Garin specifically would prove unnecessary.

The way you're twisting everything about me is pretty pathetic. Maybe you're telling the truth about Lalaith, and she is really your comrade. You two seem to be manipulating in the same way.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Durelin

I just had a crazy idea about Gil: he and TGWBS had a nice little stand-off yesterDay, but I'm pretty sure it was the first time the two really even acknowledged each other much.

Wrong, actually. I am currently looking at what people have said about TGWBS and would point out that he was on Gil's suspect list throughout - see posts #59 and #307.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Well, I predict toDay will mostly consist of SPM's double and triple posting.

I may not have as much time (RL) tomorrow as I do now, as I will be at work. So I am taking the opportunity to look into some of the leads that TGWBS's death has given us. Perhaps you would have me not show up at all and make all this much easier for you ...

Originally Posted by Durelin

Maybe you're telling the truth about Lalaith, and she is really your comrade.

Is that the sound of straws been clutched, I hear?

[The Saucepan Man]

I have been reviewing the thread to see what people’s attitudes were to TGWBS and what his attitude was to everyone still here. Here’s a “rough and ready” list:

Durelin: TGWBS claimed throughout to find find her neutral. She has never expressed more than mild suspicion of him.

Gil-Galad: TGWBS suspected him yesterDay. TGWBS was on Gil’s list of suspects from the start. They voted for each other yesterDay.

Hookbill the Goomba: TGWBS expressed mild suspicion of him fairly late on. I don’t think that Hookbill has mentioned him once.

Kath: TGWBS said that he was slightly troubled by her. On Day 3, she found him “unbelievably suspicious” but thought this might be down to different playing style and history, from which she concluded that she had no idea about him.

Kitanna: TGWBS said that he was leaning to her innocence. I‘m not sure that she has mentioned him.

Lalaith: TGWBS claimed to suspect her early on, analysed her on Day 2, and then said that she did not look suspicious to him. He did, however, express suspicion of her yesterDay. She has been moderately suspicious of him for a while, and voted for him yesterDay, before switching to me.

Legate of Amon Lanc: TGWBS claimed to be uneasy about him. Legate seems to have been neutral about him.

Mithalwen: TGWBS expressed strong suspicion of her early on, but then eased off from about Day 2, saying that he thought her more likely innocent. She has remained neutral about him, saying little one way or the other.

The Saucepan Man: I was suspicious of TGWBS from Day 2. TGWBS said that he thought me probably innocent.

Thinlómien: TGWBS claimed to suspect her on Day 2, seemingly in response to her case against him, but then seems to have eased off. She strongly suspected TGWBS from Day 2, and voted for him on Day 2.

It is difficult to know exactly how TGWBS would have chosen to react to his fellow Faithfuls, or they to him. I am, however, interested in those about whom he said very little, and vice versa, namely:

Durelin
Hookbill
Kitanna
Legate

However, I strongly doubt that he would have affected the same attitude to all of his comrades. Which leads me to believe that there is probably only one Faithful on that list. There might be two, but I think that he would have been more careful than that.

I am curious about Kath’s view on him. I think it was Lalaith who picked her up yesterDay on it, and she did explain it. But I don’t like the way she seems to have found him very suspicious, yet gave herself an excuse not to vote for him.

TGWBS appears to have expressed no strong suspicions of anyone, of those still living, save for Gil-Galad. But I find their approach to each other yesterDay most unlikely to have been the behaviour of two Faithfuls.

His expressed opinons changed most with regard to Lalaith and Lommy and, to a lesser extent, Mithalwen. It is quite possible that he would have adapted his approach to his fellow Faithfuls as game progressed and, of these I find Lalaith the most suspicious. Lommy’s consistent suspicion of him, and her Day 2 vote for him, makes me think it unlikely that she is a Faithful. I am somewhat wary of the fact that Mithalwen never really expressed much of an opinion about him but I somehow doubt that he would so firmly have adopted a belief in the innocence of a fellow Faithful so early on. From my perspective, his stated belief in my own innocence also leads me to think that.

So, based on my analyses so far, here are my current thoughts:

Suspicious
Durelin
Lalaith
Hookbill

Somewhat suspicious
Kath
Kitanna
Legate

Inclined to think innocent
Mithalwen
Lommy
Gil-Galad

And now I must sleep …