Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[the guy who be short]

I've just found out I can stay here for a while - probably until just before the voting deadline. Which means I can finally get down to a few analyses.

Firstly, I suppose I must agree with Nogrod about innocents being on both sides of the "lynch-Roa" campaign. I still think those trying to kill her were illogical, but I suppose this isn't grounds for lynching.

However, I will say this about Roa: Her claim that Rikae was not the seer were absurd. I reproduce my argument from post 324:

Roa's argument was illogical. If Rikae were a wolf pretending to be a Seer, the most sensible course of action would be to pretend two people were known innocents, thus gaining their trust. Why pretend to have dreamt of a cobbler? To cripple Roa? Why? Because she just happened to have accused one of them? Also, Rikae had been attacked the night before. We had only her word for this, but the chance of her lying was tiny, for that would mean the wolves had gone after somebody else AND the ranger had successfully protected this person. In addition, nobody attacked Rikae, claiming she could have been a wolf pretending to be the seer, on day 1 or early day 2. A real seer would at least have suggested this to try to throw suspicion on somebody who they would, in that scenario, be certain of being a wolf. It just didn't add up.

Now, it seemed to me that, due to the points above, nobody would take Roa seriously. However, people did, and that is very odd. I suspect that perhaps those who began to take Roa seriously were Faithful, trying to sow yet more confusion and waste the day. If a few people (Faithful) expressed doubts, this would probably induce others (who were innocent) to begin doubting Rikae. So, I suspect those who first expressed doubt in Rikae:

Post 195 is when Roa claimed Rikae was lying. Those to express doubts of Rikae, in order, were:

Manwe, post 203. Now this is very interesting!

I would also like to add, that Roa seems to have lost her 'cool' after the accusation. Seems rather desperate; now we have Rikae a possible Seer (possible in the eyes of Roa and a few others) revealing her as the cobbler.

What few others? Before this there was no doubt that Rikae was the Seer. Now, suddenly, according to Manwe, there are "a few others" who doubt her. This looks wolvish to me, as if being the first to express doubr in Rikae (as he does in the rest of his post) were not enough.

The next is Rune, post 204. While he expressed doubt in Rikae, it is not to the same extent as Manwe, who devoted a whole post to it. Rune also mentions other suspects he has. But still, this doesn't sit entirely well with me. He also says that the "safest action to take" is to "let Roa live for at least another day." I agree with that... but he doesn't say why! Does he have a reason?

Nogrod, post 205 - Known innocent, he expressed only the minutest doubt.



SpM and Brinniel, meanwhile, express faith in Rikae. This is consistent with my belief that the former is innocent, and also lessens my doubt of the latter. Durelin also Kath also express faith in Rikae, which I think supports their innocence.


I must leave the analysis half done for I am being caleld away. To be finished shortly.