Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Nogrod, despite referring frequently to your suspicions of me, you have never really explained this "Spm theory".

Okay I just have this much time between the lessons and I have thought I should tell you all why I have suspected Spm from Day1 onwards. You should consider whether it has any merit or not. I myself am a little disturbed by it to be honest, mainly because if we make a mistake with SPaM it would be about the worst one we could do...

So. I suspected Spm firstly and foremostly because he seemed to be playing in about exactly the same fashion I would have played if I were a faithful and knew him to be an innocent. We tend to think quite alike many times (surely not always) and share many views about playing this game. And I guess we both would like to get the other one lynched if we were werecreatures. And It would be important to make it in sportman-fashion: no Night kill for the other but getting the other lynched. Definitively.

So what do I see when he enters the game? He starts spreading some mild suggestions that I (and Roa) are to be suspected and seems to be deliberately building small mountains out of almost nonexistent molehills, indeed twisting some of my posting to suit his suspicions.

What's wrong with that? Making a fabricated case - a case in which you don't even believe yourself - is something the werecreatures do (they have to) but which wise villagers avoid doing. I mean, I think I could make pretty damning analyses by adding a few small twists from quite many of the villagers here. But what if someone believes them or the wolves start carrying them? That's no good for us. It's playing to the hands of the baddies. Thence a villager doesn't overstretch his points or make suspicions from nothing / twist things to make suspicions.

As I said, were I a Faithful in this game and knew Spm was not I would have done the things he has done so far. I mean all the rest too: after he would have disagreed with my points I would have stayed with my case and said it is as good an interpretation than which he offers and thence tried to start looking more constructive, focusing on other areas; and had I had Roa on me like he had, I would probably had tried to stay calm like he did etc.

One minor detail to add. I find it somewhat odd that Spm needs to remind us a few times that he's a "serial voter-for-gifteds", humorously to be sure (how else?) and from the very beginning on. Kind of downplaying any later incidents where he has been a major part in lynching innocents / gifteds? I don't know. Sounds unimportant (=might be just joking), but sometimes the Devil does live in the details.

So I'm a bit troubled with this as I admit it ain't much for Day3 suspicion. Then again I haven't yet had time to read any closer his latest contributions toDay. So I will come back to Spm later, but I'm going to go for some others first as I would love to have better cases...

[Mithalwen]

Hi I am here but haven't read through properly yet ..... still kicking myself for not seeing (though Roa clearly did, ) that lynching the doomed Glirdan would have been the best option for the village last night.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I don't think anyone else than the faithfuls are delighted to have the seer not dreamed about even one wolf before she dies. I mean, her attitude seems too joyful... While it's a good thing that the cobbler's nailed, Durelin seems a bit overjoyed... maybe because she and her companions are in no danger of being dreamed about anymore?

Okay, I hate *defensive* posts as much as the next person, but I have to respond to this. Lommy, hon, you've been the Seer before. So you know how awesome it is to get one of the baddies that early on. And I could not imagine being the Seer with that large of a crowd to sift through at the start! Rikae was outed on Day 1...that's only two dreams. So I went into Day 2 with the belief that we'd simply have two ousted innocents, who'd get systematically killed at Night (though the Ranger would have helped with that, I suppose). To me, getting a baddy of any sort seems better, though I guess that is debatable. There would have been jumping up and down involved if she had managed to dream of a wolf. I would likely have tackled her.

Originally Posted by SPM

Possibly, therefore, a Faithful Durelin was testing the waters for a possible lynch campaign against Manwe.

Actually it was Innocent Durelin seeing if she could get people to wake up a bit. I thought I'd get more negative reaction out of that vote then, rather than two days later.

Alright, school time...*whines about her Hamlet test as she wanders out*

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So what do I see when he enters the game? He starts spreading some mild suggestions that I (and Roa) are to be suspected and seems to be deliberately building small mountains out of almost nonexistent molehills, indeed twisting some of my posting to suit his suspicions.

I understood this part of the case, but was unclear on the specifics. Looking back, I see that you outlined your case in post #82. Since I didn’t get a chance to respond to your points then, I will do so now.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It looks like he is grasping at every straw he can twist.

I was certainly grasping at straws. Isn’t that what people do on Day 1? Given that there is so little to go on, anything slightly suspicious can get our alarm bells ringing. But I wasn’t twisting. I genuinely thought that you looked suspicious (particularly your reaction to my “bearting” comment), and so outlined those suspicions.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Then he goes on adding that remarkable suspicion that Kath and I are up to no good as we had voiced some optimism because of the basic setting of the game.

Cheery, optimistic statements like that always tweak my “suspicion radar“. Another example is Durelin’s joyful reaction toDay to the outcome of the Rikae/Roa situation.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean what is this? How does this relate to anything? How do people act in a state of "false security" and what follows from that? Sorry but I just don't get this. If on the other hand SPaM is only trying to come up with anything someone might bite, then it would be more understandable.

I would not underestimate the importance of psychology in Werewolf. An optimistic statement by an influential player that the odds are in our favour can have a psychological effect on the minds of others and so invite carelessness. It looked to me like a seemingly innocent-looking opening comment that might have malign purpose behind it.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So long as the lynch is not bent towards one of them it's pretty much the same to the were-faithfuls who is lynched. Why risk making an open campaign? But only if there is something like a big fish to be lynched.

My theory concerning those outlining early suspicions of Manwe and Glirdan was (and remains, with regard to Manwe) that some of the Faithful may have been “testing the waters” to see if a lynch campaign might be orchestrated. As I have said, concerning Manwe, I actually find those who outlined suspicions and then withdrew from them to be, on reflection, of greater concern than those who actually placed early votes for him.

One final point. You may be right that a Faithful was trying to stir suspicions of you in an attempt to take out an influential innocent, but I would expect them to do so subtly. Lommy’s comments in posts #42, #178 and #180 might be worth considering in this regard.

And now I will get on with my analysis of the Day 2 votes.