Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Thinlómien]

...and toDay I will probably unleash the flood-posting Kath has missed so much, since I'm going to spend the week-end in Nogrod's place... So all that prevents me from flood posting should be Nogrod's need to play werewolf too and some minor things (social duties to keep company to my sister, eating, doing maybe some schoolwork...). Anyway, this time, I will be able to hang around 'til the deadline.

~*~

There's one rather bad thing in our situation. We can't conclude anything from the wolf kills. By forcing the seer reveal we have launched a series of events that dictates the wolves their kills. There's nothing you can conclude from killing Rikae. Any wolf would like to get rid of a seer. Likewise, when Nogrod dies, we can't conclude anything from it.

Admittedly we could analyse who of us villagers would, as wolves, attack Rikae though ranger might be protecting her, but I doubt the discussion would be fruitful. (Because we would probably end up in a half the villagers would, half the villagers wouldn't -situation, but our results wouldn't tell us anything, since the wolf kills are decided by three different people, not just one, and we can't know whether one, two or three wolves were for attacking Rikae on Night2... In my opinion we'd just lose time and effort.)

~*~

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I seem to remember another village, plagued by wizards, where there was a suggestion that the known innocent, an ally of the Good Wizard, should chose the lynching candidate. I cannot remember now whether the suggestion was taken up.
But what do you think of this suggestion? Does anyone have any others? Nogrod, what do you think?

I still dislike this kind of suggestions! They smell wolvish "easy solutions". Wouldn't it be very nice for a wolf just to vote someone the known innocent suggests and not to have to make up own theories/suspects?

Doing a lynching candidate list by a known innocent only makes sense when the known innocent knows more than the others. For example, if s/he knows the gifteds' identities s/he can prevent them from getting lynched by making the list and everyone following it. (If I recall correctly, that was the case in Dueling Wizards.) That isn't the case right now.

Nogrod doesn't know anything more than we others do. Thus, I don't think he should make a lynch candidate list. He should, however, give some honest innocent opinions for us to chew. Then we innocents have two (instead of the normal one) 100% surely innocent opinions in our head, his and our own. So, what I actually mean, is that I'm against Nogrod becoming or being made some god who dictates everything, but I'm strongly for him becoming the village official councellor. Everybody should heed his advice, but no innocent has a reason to trust his judgement any more than his/her own (unless s/he believes Nogrod to be more intelligent than him/herself, but that's a whole different matter...).

I'm suspicious of TGWBS and Lalaith because of these suggestions I find unreasonable and harmful to the village. (Though, in TGWBS's defense, I must say he has had these weird tactics suggestions before... )

[the guy who be short]

Post 42 - Very neutral. She is the first person to cast suspicion on Rikae, I believe. If she were a Faithful, it would be a good chance to jump on a suspicious looking innocent.

Post 50 - Nothing

Post 54 - Votes Rikae.

Post 178 - Again, much neutrality, with a few mild suspicions.

Post 180 - Casts suspicion on Nogrod. Very neutrally, of course.

Post 182 - Voices slight suspicion of Hookbill.

Post 183 - Huge voting record. She then analyses these a little, in very weak language. "Slightly uneasy," "I don't know why," etc.

Post 185 - After Rikae has revealed roles, says she half-jokingly almost posted that Roa might be the cobbler. Perhaps a wolf who figured out the cobbler?

Post 187 - Attacks my idea of using Nogrod and Rikae as a platform. In her strongest words yet, attacks me as a potential wolf. As it is, my ideas are logical. Anything anybody says could be wolvish, including me and Lommy. However, nothing Nogrod says can be wolvish. It's therefore more sensible to heed Nogrod - so the wolves are forced to vote according to innocent logic - than to allow the wolves free reign.

Post 189 - Nothing.

Post 190 - Votes for me. Worries about durelin and Kitanna.

Post 321 - Attacks the idea of using Nogrod again. The point is not that his ideas are better or based on more knowledge, but that his ideas are not wolvish. If everybody votes according to them, they have to vote for somebody based on the reasoning of an innocent. They are not weird tactics! They make sense.

Post 322 - I think it's reasonable to assume that what Roa says is the opposite of what she means. Particularly, when she attacks somebody, I would say she definitely avoided attacking wolves.

There's not as much here pointing to wolvishness as I'd like there to be, if I'm perfectly honest. Perhaps my suspicion of Lommy was merely a knee-jerk reaction to her voting for me and attacking my idea of using known innocents.

I suppose the thing that disconcerts me most about Lommy is her neutrality and her carefulness not to accuse or defend anybody strongly (except me, Lal and durelin). Having no opinions about people is a cop-out. But I do not genuinely believe she is Faithful (though she may be) and so I cannot vote for her now, as I anticipated doing.

It is a shame I have no time today to analyse the people voting for Roa. I am certain now that I will find some Faithful among them. I'd only really trust Mith, other than me, to do this, and she probably wont have enough time either.

Looks like a no-vote from me today. Bye.

[Thinlómien]

Day 1
#23 Defends Glirdan and his infamous first post by saying that he's always like that, says most of her points have been already brought up by others.
#30 Does not understand Mänwe's logic about grouping her, Roa, SPM and Nogrod. Demands an explanation.
#33 Criticises Mänwe for refusing to explain his actions. Corrects Mänwe's conception on what she said about Glirdan.
#90 Pops up and says that Rikae's vote caught her attention.
#96 Understands Rikae's vote but is unsure about what to think of it. Thinks Mänwe less suspicious. Points out that no one jumped against Gil's first post (as in comparison to the fuss about Glirdan's similar first post). Does not understand the "Mänwe is harsh"-thing. Is suspicious of Garin's vote and vote-switch and votes him.
Comments: I don't like her attitude towards Mänwe. Or let's phrase it diffrently: if Mänwe's a wolf, Kitanna is probably too. Not particularly suspicious, but definitely not too innocentish either. Also, that Garin-vote is quite an easy one. It's always to reason a vote against Garin, and I think Kitanna knows that.

Day2
#245 Again says that all she had to say is already said by others. (But obvioulsy not all really, since she continues.) Speculates about the cobbler-seer thing. "A lot of damage can be done the longer a cobbler is kept alive." Is not sure if believes Rikae's claim anymore, since she told us Roa's the cobbler, but advices us not to kill her. "I realize how bad this is for me to even dare to say this, but if Rikae is the seer she is giving us horrible advice." Repeats that Roa-cobbler should be eliminated. Says she thinks Roa probably is the cobbler, is confused about this. "I also know I've put myself in a dangerous spot." Again warns about letting Cobbler-Roa live.
No vote
Comments: I don't like her repeating that everything she has thought about has already been said. I also don't like her repeating manner. In that sole post, she says at least three times that Roa the cobbler must be eliminated. I don't like her two (2) "I'm in danger because I said this"-statements in the same post.

Day3
#320 Says she's decided to take a closer look at Hookbill, slightly analyses him, reaches the conclusion that he might be trying to cover his tracks and that she's unsure about him.
Comments: Hookbill? A good suspect-pick for a wolf, no doubt. He's been suspected a bit every now and then (so no one's going to says she's talking nonsense), but the case probably won't gather enough support for him to get lynched. But, on the other hand, there might really be something wrong with that Goomba-guy...

Overall conclusions: Kitanna is suspicious, but doesn't scream a wolf. I might vote her toDay. I still suspect Durelin and TGWBS more than her.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

It is a shame I have no time today to analyse the people voting for Roa. I am certain now that I will find some Faithful among them. I'd only really trust Mith, other than me, to do this, and she probably wont have enough time either.

Looks like a no-vote from me today. Bye.

I might ... but not til a bit later ... certainly it was in their interests to have her dead since she was effectiely neutralised

Also it may be worth looking at Roa's analysis - with "eyes wide open". Even as a wolf in previous games her summaries were accurate, just "slanted". I have a theory that it is very hard for people to do things deliberately badly which they normally do well. So I suggest that Roa's facts willprobably be right but the devil will be in the detail ie the interpretation or what she has omitted. And remembering that she was working on what she had read rather than the certainty she would have had as a faithful.

[Mithalwen]

I stand by my decision to try and "save Roa". Roa was certainly NOT a wolf. Anyone else MIGHT have been a wolf. If you have a chance against a certain failure why is it so suspicious to choose the chance. As I say my only regret was not recognising the significance of the Glirdan situation til too late.

I have had a suspicion of SpM since day 1 since he was one of those who got hung up on my first post.. but as I say suspecting Sauce is fairly habitual for me (though sometimes justified )

I don't intend to justify myself further. I am innocent and would rather use my time to look at the rest of you.

[Thinlómien]

1)

Originally Posted by Mith

lynching the doomed Glirdan would have been the best option for the village last night.

I fail to see the logic here. Glirdan was doomed to die, yes. But the village lynches' purpose is to make the wolves extinct, right? Lynching an innocent doomed to die surely does not help to achieve that. I agree with you that lynching Roa yesterday was not the best cause, but, like TGWBS, I think the lynch should have been used to try to eliminate a wolf.

2) Durelin, your defense is understandable, but I think it's just about the interpretation and the interpretator were you really overjoyed or just being happy since the seer was doing relatively well. So maybe we should leave the thing be. I think the way I do, and you the way you do. Of course, you're the one who knows the truth, but I can't take your word for it.

3)

Originally Posted by Sauce

You may be right that a Faithful was trying to stir suspicions of you in an attempt to take out an influential innocent, but I would expect them to do so subtly. Lommy’s comments in posts #42, #178 and #180 might be worth considering in this regard.

Sauce, do you seriously think that I, of all people in this world, would imagine that such argumentative power as Nogrod can be brought down with a few quick remarks?

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

1) I fail to see the logic here. Glirdan was doomed to die, yes. But the village lynches' purpose is to make the wolves extinct, right? Lynching an innocent doomed to die surely does not help to achieve that. I agree with you that lynching Roa yesterday was not the best cause, but, like TGWBS, I think the lynch should have been used to try to eliminate a wolf.

Lommie dear you have gone right off my trust list.... I didn't know he was innocent until Mac posted it THIS morning. If you knew he was innocent last night it can only be because you are a faithful? However lynching an unknown who will be dead anyway keeps the numbers up - something too few of us seem to be concerned with.... and there was a chance he was a wolf/faithful

[The Saucepan Man]

I am not sure how much help this is going to be, given the way that the Day went, but there might be something here.

Here's the voting record again, for ease of reference:

Gil-Galad: ++SpM (SpM 1)
Lommy: ++TGWBS (SpM 1, TGWBS 1)
Brinniel: ++Legate (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 1)
SpM: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 1, Roa 1)
Lalaith: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 1, Roa 2)
Rune: ++Legate (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 2)
Kath: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 3)
Roa: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4)
Mithalwen: ++SpM (SpM 2, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4)
TGWBS: ++Brinniel (SpM 2, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4, Brinniel 1)
Roa: --Roa, ++SpM (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 3, Brinniel 1)
Durelin: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4, Brinniel 1)
Manwe ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 5, Brinniel 1)
Legate: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 6, Brinniel 1)
Rikae: ++Mithalwen (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 6, Brinniel 1, Mithalwen 1)
Nogrod: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 7, Brinniel 1, Mithalwen 1)
Rikae: --Mithalwen, ++Legate (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 3, Roa 7, Brinniel 1)

Did not vote: Glirdan, Hookbill, Kitanna

Roa voters: SpM, Lalaith, Kath, Roa (retracted), Durelin, Manwe, Legate, Nogrod

As I have said, I believe that lynching Roa was our best option for the Day. I still don't understand the reasoning that says it is better to vote for someone who is something like 75% likely to be innocent, when a vote can be cast for someone who is 99.9% likely to be the Cobbler. Maybe it is just my conservative nature ...

Incidentally, Mith, the possibility of lynching Glirdy did not occur to me either, but wasn’t there still a possibility that he would be given a reprieve?

That said, given the numbers, it is extremely unlikely that there were no Faithfuls among those that voted for Roa. Despite contributing to the loss of their Cobbler, a vote for Roa would have been a “safe” vote. It was always a likely outcome, so I would expect them to have placed their votes relatively early, where they could hope to gain some credit, but could still retract if necessary. In this regard, the votes of Lalaith and Kath look to me to be the most likely Faithful-on-Cobbler votes. Durelin’s vote is also a possibility.

SpM voters: Gil-Galad, Roa, Mithalwen

Well, I don’t like Gil’s reasoning (such as it is), but there’s not much more to say on his vote other than that. Gil has said precious little to judge him by, but he always plays like that, guilty or innocent. I am not sure what to do about him. On the one hand, I rather agree with whoever said that our situation is rather too precarious to go off on a “lynch the silent ones” campaign. On the other hand, there is something like a 1 in 4 chance that he’s a Faithful.

As I indicated earlier, I am wary of Mith’s attempts to prevent Roa’s lynching and I don’t like the reasons she put forward for me being the alternative (the “quibble” and my vote for Roa). That said, I do think that she was being far more obvious in trying to save Roa than I would expect a Faithful would be.

Legate voters: Brinniel, Rune, Rikae

Of those who did not vote for Roa, I find those who were not overtly pushing for her to be saved the more suspicious. I don’t fully understand the suspicion of Legate, as the evidence seems a bit thin. It seems to amount to no more than his intervention in the Hookbill/Brinniel episode (which I think really amounted to much fuss and bother over nothing) and the fact that he has been “reasonable“. Brinniel also didn’t like the fact that Legate found her suspicious, and thought it odd? Why? It is the most natural thing in the world, in a game of Werewolf, to be found suspicious, even when innocent. It happens to us all!

Both Brinniel and Rune appear to have thought it more likely than not that Roa was lying, and yet voted for someone who might be guilty or might be innocent, seemingly on very little evidence. I am fairly sure that one of these two is a Faithful. Possibly, they both are, given that Rune has said on a number of occasions that he finds Brinniel suspicious, but has never voted for her. Possibly, Legate and one of these two are Faithfuls, since, with Roa the most likely to be lynched, this would have been a good time for a Faithful-on-Faithful vote. I am inclined, at present, to think Legate innocent, though.

Others:

Lommy for TGWBS - Thin grounds (no pun intended ). TGWBS had suggested taking account of the fact that Nogrod and Rikae were known (or almost certain, in Rikae’s case) innocents, and that their thoughts were therefore the only ones (other than our own) we could be sure were untainted. That seems to be an entirely reasonable proposition to me, and yet she voted yesterDay on the basis of it. That and the fact that she found TGWBS was being “careful“, a conveniently vague and unsubstantiated statement. Also, she appears to have accepted that Roa was the Cobbler, yet gave no thought to voting for her.

TGWBS for Brinniel - I don’t like the way that TGWBS was trying to persuade the village not to vote for Roa, and in a more subtle manner than Mith. Yet, it was still a risky strategy for a Faithful. His vote for Brinniel is reasoned on both he and Rikae finding her suspicious. Not sure, but I don’t find anything overly suspicious about this vote, other than the fact that it was not for Roa.

I agree with Mith that looking at Roa’s analyses with “eyes wide open” might well be productive, and I am wary of those who have suggested otherwise. I will try to do so later. TGWBS’ simple “reverse psychology” approach is just that - too simple. However, I do believe that she thought Nogrod to be a Faithful and me to be an innocent (so she got one thing right ). Other than that, I suspect that she that she is unlikely to have wanted to draw much attention to any she thought were Faithfuls.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Sauce, do you seriously think that I, of all people in this world, would imagine that such argumentative power as Nogrod can be brought down with a few quick remarks?

No, but I can imagine you indulging in a little stirring ...

[The Saucepan Man]

I have attempted to collate my somewhat jumbled thoughts on the voting into some kind of coherent order. So, here is my current thinking, based mainly upon my analysis of the voting:

Suspicious
Lalaith - the mistress of “safe votes”
Durelin - for some curious voting on Day 1 and a possible “safe” Roa vote on Day 2
Rune - for possibly testing the water on Manwe and a suspicious Day 2 vote
Brinniel - also for that Day 2 vote, and for seemingly trying to say little controversial
Lommy - for a suspicious Day 2 vote

Somewhat suspicious
TGWBS - for urging the village not to vote for Roa
Kitanna - for possibly testing the water on Manwe and also seemingly avoiding controversy

No idea
Kath
Gil-Galad
Hookbill

Inclined to think innocent
Manwe - for reasons previously stated
Legate - I tend to think that reasonableness is just that, without more
Mithalwen - her approach to the Roa issue looks to be too bold for her

Innocent
Nogrod

This is really just based on the voting and general impressions, and there’s a lot more that I want to look at before I draw any firm conclusions.

[Brinniel]

Indeed, I admit I am a quiet one, but as I am a newcomer you all must learn that this is simply my style....as an innocent of course.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Brinniel also didn’t like the fact that Legate found her suspicious, and thought it odd? Why? It is the most natural thing in the world, in a game of Werewolf, to be found suspicious, even when innocent. It happens to us all!

Hmm...I'm not sure where you get this impression. After Legate's first suspicion of me, on post 49 I merely clarified what I said. I never showed any sign I was upset...I just defended myself as anyone would.

Anyways, I was thinking (perhaps in my newbie way) that it would become easier to pick out the Faithful as the Days go by, but now it is only beginning to seem even more difficult. Those I feel most suspicious of aren't posting toDay as much as I would like, and it's slightly frustrating. I am hopping on a plane today, so I must make my vote within the hour, and I have no idea whom to pick just yet...

I wish I could be around for the exciting last few hours, but unfortunately that just cannot be. So if anyone has more to say...say it now!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, let's move in the day. First, to Nogrod's first posts and the discussion following: I think it is not good to consider only a "shortlist", as Lalaith and tgwbs adviced. But Nogrod could be of help and we'd do best to "judge" our own thoughts or suspicions in the light of the one innocent's thoughts. Because, if you move your thoughts through the points of Nogrod and re-think them, it is likely you find something that might correct your thoughts. When, of course, it's everyone's job to do so for himself. But if all the villagers do that, I think it might help to shrug off the tangles of misleading hints of the Faithfuls.

One first thought about Mithalwen:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

(Mithalwen)'s concentarting on things an innocent wouldn't maybe concentrate on (like the Roa-SPM-Nogrod triangle on Day1), but her consistence in demanding to lynch someone else than Roa (which I could very well understand) speaks for her innocence.

Actually, I don't think this would make her innocent. I think it might as well either have served her to keep Roa alive to help the Faithfuls vote (less likely), or served her to hide behind "being different" (under the candle is the least light, or if this proverb exists in English).

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

We can kill Roa anytime , we need dead wolves.... we would be better off lynching a non participant.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I stand by my decision to try and "save Roa". Roa was certainly NOT a wolf. Anyone else MIGHT have been a wolf. If you have a chance against a certain failure why is it so suspicious to choose the chance.

There is a third thought, however, that is convincing us to quickly change our votes from Roa to someone else - and trying to pick someone else instead of Roa (even more in such a rush) might mean picking an innocent as well, and if we picked an innocent, it would have been a triple-kill for the wolves.
It is something I have to think more of, since Mithalwen has been already debated at start, where I didn't find her suspicious. This time it seems to me, however, something different.

Originally Posted by the Saucepan Man

Both Brinniel and Rune appear to have thought it more likely than not that Roa was lying, and yet voted for someone who might be guilty or might be innocent, seemingly on very little evidence. I am fairly sure that one of these two is a Faithful. Possibly, they both are, given that Rune has said on a number of occasions that he finds Brinniel suspicious, but has never voted for her. Possibly, Legate and one of these two are Faithfuls, since, with Roa the most likely to be lynched, this would have been a good time for a Faithful-on-Faithful vote.

The last can be dropped, SpM, I am really not a Faithful. But after considering this idea, it occurs to me it might have something in it. Because: unless the Faithful completely missed this voting, then it is three innocent going against themselves. But, if one of us three were to be a Faithful, then I'd be most suspicious about Brinniel. The main point is that in her posts she generally just throws a suspicion, or hints something which might then be used to rouse suspicion, and that's mostly all. If she were a Faithful, it would indeed serve its purpose.

EDIT: Cross-posted with the Saucepan Man and Brinniel.

[the guy who be short]

I've just found out I can stay here for a while - probably until just before the voting deadline. Which means I can finally get down to a few analyses.

Firstly, I suppose I must agree with Nogrod about innocents being on both sides of the "lynch-Roa" campaign. I still think those trying to kill her were illogical, but I suppose this isn't grounds for lynching.

However, I will say this about Roa: Her claim that Rikae was not the seer were absurd. I reproduce my argument from post 324:

Roa's argument was illogical. If Rikae were a wolf pretending to be a Seer, the most sensible course of action would be to pretend two people were known innocents, thus gaining their trust. Why pretend to have dreamt of a cobbler? To cripple Roa? Why? Because she just happened to have accused one of them? Also, Rikae had been attacked the night before. We had only her word for this, but the chance of her lying was tiny, for that would mean the wolves had gone after somebody else AND the ranger had successfully protected this person. In addition, nobody attacked Rikae, claiming she could have been a wolf pretending to be the seer, on day 1 or early day 2. A real seer would at least have suggested this to try to throw suspicion on somebody who they would, in that scenario, be certain of being a wolf. It just didn't add up.

Now, it seemed to me that, due to the points above, nobody would take Roa seriously. However, people did, and that is very odd. I suspect that perhaps those who began to take Roa seriously were Faithful, trying to sow yet more confusion and waste the day. If a few people (Faithful) expressed doubts, this would probably induce others (who were innocent) to begin doubting Rikae. So, I suspect those who first expressed doubt in Rikae:

Post 195 is when Roa claimed Rikae was lying. Those to express doubts of Rikae, in order, were:

Manwe, post 203. Now this is very interesting!

I would also like to add, that Roa seems to have lost her 'cool' after the accusation. Seems rather desperate; now we have Rikae a possible Seer (possible in the eyes of Roa and a few others) revealing her as the cobbler.

What few others? Before this there was no doubt that Rikae was the Seer. Now, suddenly, according to Manwe, there are "a few others" who doubt her. This looks wolvish to me, as if being the first to express doubr in Rikae (as he does in the rest of his post) were not enough.

The next is Rune, post 204. While he expressed doubt in Rikae, it is not to the same extent as Manwe, who devoted a whole post to it. Rune also mentions other suspects he has. But still, this doesn't sit entirely well with me. He also says that the "safest action to take" is to "let Roa live for at least another day." I agree with that... but he doesn't say why! Does he have a reason?

Nogrod, post 205 - Known innocent, he expressed only the minutest doubt.



SpM and Brinniel, meanwhile, express faith in Rikae. This is consistent with my belief that the former is innocent, and also lessens my doubt of the latter. Durelin also Kath also express faith in Rikae, which I think supports their innocence.


I must leave the analysis half done for I am being caleld away. To be finished shortly.