Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Rikae]

Durelin -Seems to be engaging with all the issues that are brought up and sincerely trying to be helpful. Feels innocent.
Glirdan – Entirely confusing and little content. Can't get any impression of him at all – might be a good idea to eliminate him as an “unknown quantity” soon.

Gil-Galad – Basically, same assessment as Glirdan.
Kath – Advised me not to start conversations as a wolf in the last game – something she's been doing now. She seems not to be trying quite as hard, or playing as carefully, as she does when a wolf – but it's subtle enough I doubt it's a deliberate trick.
Kitanna – Safe – claims speechlessness, not really with much apparent reason – points out Glirdan's Glirdanishness. Seems very to be flying under the radar.
Lalaith – First post seems relaxed, in an innocentish way, and pointing out the foolishness of drawing attention to gifteds also strikes me as sincere.
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mänwe – Attention drawing in a way that, in retrospect, seems like the sort of innocent that looks suspcious on a day one. However, the comment about worthless villagers disturbs me...but he kind of reminds me of an innocent Morm.
Mithalwen – Posting first tends to look innocent – as I'm sure “Faithfulwen” would be aware.

Initially pointing out that gifteds can look suspicious could easily be an attempt to make suspicious looking faithfuls seem like possible gifteds, plus, she mentions the cobbler prominently on a separate line – a technique I've used myself, as a wolf, to get the cobbler's attention.
Rune Son of Bjarne – Always seems the same to me, guilty or innocent. Isn't particularly standing out.
The Saucepan Man – Starts off telling everyone to speak, stating simple, safe, obvious things. Seems keen to lynch Roa, which is NOT in the village's interests, as I said.






Suspicious:

Mithalwen

TSM

Kitanna




Moderate:

Glirdan

Manwe

Rune

Gil







Not suspicious:

Kath

Lalaith

Duralin




I have to go - I'll look at the rest when I get back.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mithalwen – Posting first tends to look innocent – as I'm sure “Faithfulwen” would be aware.

.

LOL I find quite the reverse - in my first games the first posters turned out to be wolves which was the reason I nearly just went home to bed on Sunday night. However because I believe you should participate as much as you can and I knew I would be limited, I started things off. If I were a wolf I would have kept quiet and not drawn attention to myself . However as an ordo, I believe the more discussion the better. I generated discussion far more than by some "in char RPG"psot customary for early posts that may be amusing but are seldom enlightening......

And I am not a wolf so please do not play around with my name. I really find it annoying when people do that....

[Kath]

We have something of a dilemma here. To lynch Roa or not to lynch Roa. Let's have a look at the possibilities:

1) We lynch Roa and find that she is the Cobbler, thus proving Rikae to be the Seer and Nogrod an innocent.

2) We lynch Roa and find that she is innocent, thus proving Rikae is not the Seer and Nogrod is unknown.

3) We do not lynch Roa and Rikae is killed toNight and found to be either the Seer (proving Roa's guilt) or not (disproving Roa's guilt).

4) We do not lynch Roa and Rikae is not killed toNight, meaning that nothing is certain and we spend the whole of tomorrow arguing the same point.

Now, for the most part I am inclined to think that option 1 is the best. However, on a re-read through just now I noticed something TGWBS said:

although I thought the Seer would see the Cobbler as an innocent

This was something I had forgotten. I know this was the case in previous games but it is possible that Mac had changed the rule here.

With the 'lynch Roa' options we do at least get some facts. We'll know if Rikae is the Seer or not. The problem there is that the second we have confirmation the wolves will kill her anyway. However, if we do not lynch Roa the wolves may well leave Rikae alive toNight in order that the village stays stuck on determining the roles of those two tomorrow. There are enough villagers around that it is more likely Rikae will dream of an ordinary villager than of a wolf so the danger is not that great for them.

Basically, lynching Roa, whatever she turns out to be, looks to be the best option for the good of the village. The only way that changes is if she is Gifted. We need to know whether Rikae is the real Seer or not or we're going to be relying on false information for the rest of the game. We could lynch Nogrod in an attempt to prove or disprove her claim, but there are many innocents and only one Cobbler.

So, unless Roa suddenly reveals herself as Gifted my vote will stand as:

++ROA

EDIT: Apologies, had an erroneous possibility.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Kath

I know this was the case in previous games but it is possible that Mac had changed the rule here.

Given some of the powers of Sauron, his High Priest sees all.

edit: I have only once been in a game where seers dreaming of cobblers was an issue, and there the seer could identify her/him. Therefore I thought it'd be clear.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

I've had a skim of as many posts as I could and have had a thought or two.

Mainly to do with Kath and her post about Roa and the reason behind the vote. It seems to me that Kath was more interested in finding out Roa's identity than weather or not she was a wolf faithful. Her post barely (if at all) mentions the possibility. This struck me as odd for surely when one is an ordo or at the least an innocent, then the desire to see faithfuls put to justice is above meer curiosity.
Unless I missed something, that whole post had an odd feel to it. Perhaps Kath was just pointing out something relevant to the conversation I will have to double check some time, but I had to post this thought to add to the discussion...

[Nogrod]

One interesting detail.

On #21 Spm says:

In any event, both mathematically and logically speaking, it is likely that at least one, and quite probably, two of our four Faithfuls have spoken already so far.

And basically I must agree with him. Before that there had been eight people posting (of 21). Of those eight one is me (innocent) and three are dead (Garin, Glirdan and Roa). That leaves four people: Mith, Lalaith, Kath and Mänwe. So we've gotten a free harvest here that has left only four candidates.

Now my only problem with this is that I can still see Spm as one of our Faithfuls. That being so it would look like a perfect possibility for a villain to notify the illogical situation (for some miraculous reason no Faithful had actually posted yet) and call it out for their benefit. Or then he was just stating the obvious even though one of his fellows had already posted...

But I think we should remember this anyhow...

[Lalaith]

I’m not infallibe, on the contrary, but you can trust that these are done with a good intention. So read them, chew them – agree, disagree, bring new points forwards... in no way accept them as I present them. More minds realise more things.

I think we should put our minds together to find the most useful way to use our known innocent. We should, Annatar willing, have him among us for two Days.
I seem to remember another village, plagued by wizards, where there was a suggestion that the known innocent, an ally of the Good Wizard, should chose the lynching candidate. I cannot remember now whether the suggestion was taken up.
But what do you think of this suggestion? Does anyone have any others? Nogrod, what do you think?

[the guy who be short]

In reply to Nogrod - that's not how maths works, I'm afraid. At that point, it was likely that at least one Faithful had spoken. However, every villager today has an equal chance - that is, 4 out of 15 - of being a Faithful.

I seem to remember another village, plagued by wizards, where there was a suggestion that the known innocent, an ally of the Good Wizard, should chose the lynching candidate. I cannot remember now whether the suggestion was taken up.
But what do you think of this suggestion? Does anyone have any others? Nogrod, what do you think?

I have already made a similar suggestion. I advised a shortlist. However, we need more known innocents for a shortlist to be mathematically plausible and not manipulated by the Faithful.