Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, I'm back and much calmer now. I do find it alarming that no is even really considering that Rikae may be lying. (I'm not surprised at SPM.) Come one, people, are you just going to blindly believe without even the slightest doubt? The worst thing a village can do in werewolf is to ignore a possibilty that someone is lying.

Rikae is the cobbler. This is slightly more likely. The ranger would have protected her, thinking her the seer, and the wolves, also thinking her the seer, try to kill her. But why would Cobbler-Rikae say Roa was the Cobbler? Cobbler-Rikae does not know, any more than the rest of us, who is a wolf. So, if we then turn on Roa and kill her, and Roa turns out to be a wolf, the Rikae-Cobbler will have failed in her duty.

The bolded part is what I truly believe happened, in which case the Faithful and Rikae couldn't be in a stringer position. Rikae has shown herself to be as bold as I am. Here's a possibilty that you seem to be ignoring: Tar-Rikae believes me innocent, and someone I've analyzed to be a Faithful. (I personally think it's SPM, who naturally voted for me ) She doesn't want anyone taking me seriously, so she accuses me of being the cobbler, to cripple a powerful innocent and detract the case.

And look at what's happening: SPM has jumped on it and imediately voted for me with such an air of finality that it seems anyone who might believe me will be instantly suspected for doing so. TGWBS is just going along and saying all my points must mean the opposite of what I really say, which plays perfectly into this plan. And while some are pointing out the folly in this, no one is doing anything about it.

And consider this: If I was really the cobbler, wouldn't I have tried to disprove the "seer" the moment she revealed? Or perhaps even claimed to be the ranger and say that I didn't really protect her? You might say that the real ranger would disprove it, or even the hunter, but that in itself would be doing a cobbler's job in forcing gifted to reveal. You say I'm acting like a cobbler, but you also admit that I'm more sly than people seem to think. Am I really acting any different than I normally do? If I were the cobbler, I'd have a much better plan than "mass confusion" going.

EDIT: crossed with Rikae

[Durelin]

Popping in again real quickly. Yay for classrooms with computers...

Rikae - You have good points about Roa being another know non-Faithful (if you're telling the truth...I know very well that there are no certainties in this game, but I also know that you have to go with what's most likely or you're stuck), I disagree that she can do no harm. She can still vote, and particularly once our numbers start decreasing more as they undoubtedly will with all four wolves left, one vote can make a big difference. Everyone even has one retractable, so anything can happen.

Originally Posted by Roa

If I was really the cobbler, wouldn't I have tried to disprove the "seer" the moment she revealed?

You had no way to effectively disprove her until she shared what she knew. Wisely she waited to do so, and you did, too. The Cobbler's point isn't to commit suicide. You weren't going to stick your neck out that far.

Edit: Cross-posted with Manwe.