Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

I suppose what worries most about Brinniel is that she says so incredibly little. Her posts are scarce and scanty.

I'm not going to become all defensive at TGWBS's suspicisions, for I think it would be pointless. However, I will point out that I do not say much because I am a naturally quiet person. Perhaps it seems for you, but it's quite normal for me.

As for Roa's claims, I find it more likely she is lying than Rikae. After all, wouldn't it only be typical for a cobbler revealed to deny her role?

Back to Hookbill, he could very well, be honest, but then again, he good also be a good bluff. I'm still not sure about him...

And the more and more I am becoming suspicious of Legate. From his last post, he seems to think no one is suspicious and I find that a bit odd.

Anyways, I have to go to class and must vote very shortly, and I'm not quite sure who yet...

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Please Roa, you have worked just as a great cobbler would. I know this from some experiences (nasty and nice). It's clear that a Cobbler's game actually starts only at a later date, but there is one thing the cobbler must ensure and that is not to be dreamt of early in the game. With a player of your stature it's pretty probable to be dreamt of so you'd have to be extra helpful to gain the trust needed. And what have you done? Look at how people have reacted to the news: "I was going to praise you, but *sigh*". Great playing Roa! *bowsdown*

I always play this way, evil or not, and you know it, Nogrod. Analysis is what I do. Of course I'm not surprised you support Rikae- she named you innocent! As long as everyone believes her, you avoid scrutiny.

As for Roa's claims, I find it more likely she is lying than Rikae. After all, wouldn't it only be typical for a cobbler revealed to deny her role?

It's also be typical for someone who's innocent to deny that claim, as well, Brinniel.

I can see defending myself is getting me nowhere. Fine, believe Rikae. Lynch me and see that I'm innocent, or wait for her to be alive tomorrow.

[Brinniel]

Urgh...I really hate to be rushed, but I have to go, so I absolutely must cast a vote NOW.

Though I am still a bit suspicious of Hookbill, I do not want to vote him just quite yet. A little more observation is required.

Legate's posts seem to be careful...too careful. He seems to want to be on everyone's side, and as I stated before can't seem to find anyone suspicious to him. While I'm still not sure about him, I have no one else to go on and must vote:

++Legate

If I have time to look back before the Day is over (which I probably won't), I certainly will.

[Roa_Aoife]

I don’t believe Roa’s protests for one moment (particularly as she was so quick herself to accept Rikae’s declaration when it came).

When there is a seer reveal in the last few moments of the day, I vote to save the supposed seer, based solely on the premise that if they are faking, it will soon be found out anyways. It's safer to save the "seer" and wait for the next Day than to start doubting all over again.

Unless ofcourse, no one believes you.

Her mischaracterisation of my participation yesterDay was so breathtaking (to my mind, anyway) that I could not believe that there was no malice behind it. As I read through, I was coming round to the conclusion that she must be the Cobbler, since she has been behaving way to boldly for a Faithful, even by her standards.

The only "malice" in that case was toward someone whom I still believe to be a Wolf, and I'm not surprised that you're only too happy to support Rikae. After all, it "saves you the inconvenience" of having to answer my accusations. How very convenient for you.

One productive line of enquiry, it seems to me, will be to review Roa’s “handy dandy” analyses and see who she may have been trying to draw suspicion away from.

At least those aren't getting ignored. If that was your plan, you failed, Rikae.

EDIT: X'd with Nogrod

[Roa_Aoife]

Even though what Roa says is perfectly possible I would also like to remind us - and myself the most - that bogging down in this issue and not hunting for the Faithfuls would be an excellent masterpiece of Cobblery, the very thing Roa is here suspected of!

If you believed me, you'd have a baddie right now. And a second, because this is far too convenient for SPM. Maybe that was Rikae's plan- she knows SPM is a Faithful and wants to completely discredit my case against him. By the time you know she's lying, it will have been forgotten.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, seeing as I started crying when I read Kath's post, I think I'm getting way too worked up about this. I'm going to take a break for a little while. Ask questions of me, if you want. I'll answer them when I get back.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Maybe that was Rikae's plan- she knows SPM is a Faithful and wants to completely discredit my case against him. By the time you know she's lying, it will have been forgotten.

No. I've no intention of forgetting Spm and indeed his last post awoke pretty similar reactions in me as it seems to have aroused in you. But remember also my dear Roa, the way a good Cobbler works is by being reasonable as often as she can and I have no doubt that most that you did at least on Day1 was quite straightforward and open. What else could you have done not knowing the identities of the Faithfuls?

Trying to say then: I think it much more probable that you're a Cobbler than Rikae as so many things seem to fit. As I said, I admit it's not fool-proof and there is a chance it being the more improbable way.

But I'll try to think of other things for a while just to refresh my mind.

[Durelin]

Way to go Rikae!! With just two dreams, you have nailed the Cobbler. Though there are still four wolves out there, we finally might have a lead on something.

And dang...that's a lot of work for just a Cobbler.

I feel we have no reason to think that Rikae is not the Seer, though unfortunately I suppose we will find out for certain tomorrow. I suppose the best course of action is mostly ignoring Roa, though we should try and use her "suspicions" and non-suspicions of people as leads.

The most obvious person she has expressed faith in is Legate. But...this is Roa. Why would her analysis leave him that spotless if she thought he was a wolf? While it is entirely possible (double bluff sorta thing?), I don't see her having any reason to do it, anyway. It wasn't as if he was in need of protection. We certainly shouldn't ignore her "I like him" business in the long run, but I think right now we will *crosses fingers* have more luck going in a more middle direction. Perhaps it would be better to look at those she barely acknowledged, and those she more mildly "defended" or approved of.

Of course, I doubt we have much information. Such a talkative Cobbler is largely out to confuse. Except that her analyses make sense! Considering she does not know who the wolves are (unless...the wolves or Mod Mac don't get to tell her or hint at whether her list is accurate? The wolves see it, though, right? But I suppose that doesn't tell them anything for certain, either.), perhaps she even did an excellent analysis sealing the death of one of her comrades. Sounds like something I'd do as Cobbler...well, when I'm not going after SPM just for the heck of it. I should have noticed it earlier; her sarcasm and persistent accusations are quite like the kind of Cobbler I enjoy. Thank you, Roa, for the entertainment.

I have one little quibble for Lommy...

Originally Posted by Lommy

16. Durelin retrcats from Rikae and votes for Mänwe
Obviously because of Rikae's revelation. Has had somewhat vague suspicions about him before.

I didn't vote for Rikae. I voted for Manwe (as you stated before), then I switched to Garin. Maybe I should try retracting a vote to vote for someone again to see if anyone notices.

Right now I feel like Hookbill, Brinniel, and Lommy all have a bit of a forced, edgy sort of feel to their posts (yes, I used "feel" twice. So lynch me.), but I definitely do not suggest they are all three wolves or even two of them are, though it's possible. I think Brinniel's vote for Legate, though it is far from baseless, is a very easy vote - with the revelation of Roa as the Cobbler, the easiest choice for a vote is in fact Legate simply for her praise of him. Perhaps it is that easy, and she was defending who she thought was a wolf...but even then there's no guarantee he is one. And right now, I don't have a feel for him.

Unfortunately I'm at school right now so I can only do a quick skim. I'll be back later, an hour before the deadline, to say more. Wish I could be back earlier, but...well, one more year of high school. *dashes off to Latin class*

[Kath]

OOC: Ok. Essay is done, internet is working, let's get down to some serious game playing!

Well, I was about to ask whether anyone else thought Roa was posting like a mad woman in order to put people off analysing her for some dastardly reason, and thanks to Rikae I have an answer! For all that some people have said we might as well leave her alive since she's not a Faithful I think it would be worth killing her. Firstly we're rid of a most confusing influence, and second the thread will get a good bit shorter!

Roa reviewed almost everyone before Rikae came out with her dream, but of course she has no more idea on who the wolves are than we do so I'm not sure how much help those will be. It is possible that those she thinks look more innocent may actually be Faithfuls thanks to Cobbler logic, but since she doesn't know for sure nor do we.

However, on Day 1 she did specifically say she thought Manwe was either Cobbler or Faithful, which I think clears him slightly. Roa's bold, but I'm not sure she'd be so bold as to add support to an already forming bandwagon if she thought he really might be a wolf. Not that early on in the game.

I have to admit that I skim read all of those long analyses today and so can't say anything about them yet. I'll go back and read them, see if they give me any ideas.

EDIT: Cross-posted with at least 3/4 people.