Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[the guy who be short]

Roa - while others did mildly suspect Lalaith before you, you were the first to put together a case that was actually convincing.

Mithalwen

Post 6 is now infamous - how to tell gifteds from Faithfuls.

Post 67 - Says she's been quiet as she's been away from a computer.

Post 74 - She says she sees nothing odd about Roa. She defends her initial statement about telling gifteds from Faithfuls, stressing that she said she doesn't want the village to force gifteds to out themselves.

Post 87 - says Garin is always weird.

Post 101 - Disagrees with a post by Roa; says the Faithful would not let a gifted live.

Post 104 - Suspects Lalaith for "miscontruing" her post about sorting gifteds from Faithfuls. Also says it's hard to suspect anybody.

Post 112 - Cannot decide whom to vote for.

Post 115 - Says Rikae will be found out if she's lying.


Well, I'm cutting it off there. My entire suspicion of Mith was based on that single first post (which she has defended vehemently). It still doesn't feel right to me, but the rest of what she says seems okay. I'm no longer too worried about her.

[the guy who be short]

Roa - why would Rikae lie about you being Tar-Miriel, if she were not a Seer having dreamt of you? A fake-seer would be far better off naming two innocents to gain their trust.

Please just accept that the village is not going to trust you. To do so would be illogical.

[Roa_Aoife]

Roa - while others did mildly suspect Lalaith before you, you were the first to put together a case that was actually convincing.

I didn't build a case- I did an analysis. Which if, you hadn't noticed, I did of everyone. Except of course, Rikae, because I thought she was innocent. Hardly an attempt to get everyone to vote Lal.

Roa - why would Rikae lie about you being Tar-Miriel, if she were not a Seer having dreamt of you? A fake-seer would be far better off naming two innocents to gain their trust.

I don't know! Maybe she wants to cripple a vocal and helpful villager, and maybe she wants to make my analysis useless because Ifound something in there that she doesn't want anybody to look at! I don't know what her plan is, I just know that she's lying about being the seer, because I know I'm not Tar-Miriel.

There is one person who can come forward to stop the village from being mislead, and still not have us sacrifice any gifteds. The innocent who was actually protected last night. Please, don't let her drag the village down. If you come forward, then no true gifteds have to reveal, and we can stop Rikae from leading the village astray.

Please just accept that the village is not going to trust you. To do so would be illogical.

I never expect to be trusted, but I will not back down, because I know I'm telling the truth, whether you believe me or not.

[Mänwe]

Roa, and I sincerely thank you for it, you are a samaritan.

~~~

I would also like to add, that Roa seems to have lost her 'cool' after the accusation. Seems rather desperate; now we have Rikae a possible Seer (possible in the eyes of Roa and a few others) revealing her as the cobbler.

Still, if the four wolves attacked her last night, then they must have agreed that she was not lying when she revealed herself. So it is probable she is, unless of course as has been mentioned the Faithful's knew the Ranger would protect the Seer.

Mhm, perhaps Roa looses herself in her analysis, and looses us in her analysis. As has been said, she has the potential to continue confusing us with further analysis on us all. I would be content to ignore her now..vote for her even. If Rikae is not killed this evening by the wolves well we can then seriously doubt that she is the Seer, surely they could not risk letting her have another dream!

Another plus for voting Roa, is, if indeed she is the cobbler then we have eliminated a potential thorn in our side...however if she is innocent (I personally doubt it, I had reservations as Thin did over how 'useful' she was appearing.) Then it would be further proof that Rikae was lying to us. And if she were lying to us, well it would certainly look as if she were a faithful.

Would it not!?

[Roa_Aoife]

You'll have proof tomorrow anyways, because Rikae will still be alive.

It occurs to me now, that the wolves may have actually attacked her (assuming she's Tar-Miriel, because it would be a foolish move for a Faithful at this point), not realizing that she was the cobbler in disguise, and the ranger may have truly protected her. In which case, that's very good luck for the wolves side. As the rules state:

Tar-Míriel (cobbler) belongs to the innocents, but is in reality hoping for the Faithfuls to win. She does not know the Faithfuls’ identity and the Faithfuls don’t know hers.

If this is the case, then I have nothing to prove my innocense except my death, or the true seer's reveal. I'll just be patient then. Rikae will be alive tomorrow, I garuntee it. And then you'll see. The true seer can stay hidden another day. And since I've said all I can say, I'll be signing off for toDay. I'll still be reading along, though.

EDIT: Cross with Nogrod

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

Another plus for voting Roa, is, if indeed she is the cobbler then we have eliminated a potential thorn in our side...however if she is innocent (I personally doubt it, I had reservations as Thin did over how 'useful' she was appearing.) Then it would be further proof that Rikae was lying to us. And if she were lying to us, well it would certainly look as if she were a faithful.

Would it not!?

Now you're talkin' my fisherman! Even though I would hate to lose an innocent Roa - I really would - there is sense in this. I mean I first hesitated and was kind of agreeing with Rikae's suggestion that we do not waste our lynch on her toDay. But there is one problem there and it is as follows.

If we let Roa live and Rikae makes it through the Night, we can't say it is because she (Rikae) is a Faithful and has fooled us or because the wolves are bluffing us. And that in turn would mean both that we kill an innocent toDay with some pretty considerable probabilities and that we will be faced with real tough dilemmas toMorrow as to what to do, thus increasing the risk that our gifteds feel the need to reveal themselves...

Originally Posted by Roa

Lynch me and see that I'm innocent, or wait for her to be alive tomorrow.

As I said up above: we can't say. It's perfectly possible she's alive toMorrow whether we lynch you or not.

But a truly ingenious piece of work here!

It occurs to me now, that the wolves may have actually attacked her (assuming she's Tar-Miriel, because it would be a foolish move for a Faithful at this point), not realizing that she was the cobbler in disguise, and the ranger may have truly protected her.

I mean this is perfectly possible! But it sure is highly unprobable as well. If Rikae is a cobbler fighting for her life all Roa says is possible.

Even though what Roa says is perfectly possible I would also like to remind us - and myself the most - that bogging down in this issue and not hunting for the Faithfuls would be an excellent masterpiece of Cobblery, the very thing Roa is here suspected of!

I'll need to take a break from this question now anyhow as my brain hurts...

I'll be doing what I can next to look for any possible villains around here as I'm not having all the time on Day3 (alive, if I am then).

EDIT: X'd with Spm & Brinniel

[the guy who be short]

A meta-analysis.

We have two known innocents. In addition, we have one known Tar-Miriel (surely you people are not serious about having doubts? A fake-seer lying about having seen Tar-Miriel is illogical).

I have put together their views concerning every villager, except for themselves, of course. (In the case of Roa, as she is working to undermine the village, remember to invert everything she says). I will then compare what these three people think about each villager. Let's see what happens:

Brinniel
Roa thinks Brinniel is "odd." I think she's largely undecided here.


Durelin
Roa seems to find her slightly suspicious, which means she probably thinks durelin is innocent.

Gil-Galad
Roa has no strong feelings, is slightly suspicious.

Glirdan
Nogrod is ever so slightly suspicious, but his feelings aren't strong.

the guy who be short
Roa seems to find me suspicious, though does not go as far as thinking I'm a Faithful. She probably thinks I'm innocent.
Nogrod worries that he agrees with everything I say. I think this means he's largely undecided on me.

Hookbill the Goomba
Roa seems to find him suspicious, but not so much as to call him a wolf. She probably think's he's an innocent.

Kath
Roa has no strong feelings, slightly suspicious.
Nogrod doesn't seem to have any strong feelings.

Kitanna
Roa suspects her to be Faithful, which probably means she think's Kitanna is innocent.

Lalaith
Roa suspects her, though not so far as to call her a wolf. She therefore probably finds Lalaith innocent.

Legate of Amon Lanc
Roa "likes" and "agrees" with everything he says. She says somebody else should analyze him because she feels too partial. This points to her thinking he is a Faithful.

Mänwe
Roa calls him suspicious, meaning she probably thinks he's innocent.
Nogrod thinks he is not a Faithful.
Rikae thinks he is suspicious.

Mithalwen
Roa has no strong feelings, she's slightly suspicious.

Rune Son of Bjarne
Roa seems to find him suspicious, which probably means she thinks he's innocent.

The Saucepan Man
Roa attacks him fiercely, meaning she thinks he's innocent.
Nogrod attacks him fiercely, he thinks SpM is a faithful.

Thinlómien
Rikae thinks she has a "faithful-ish vibe."
Roa thinks she seems quite innocent, meaning she probably thinks Thinlomien is Faithful.



Well. Some more views from Nogrod and Rikae would certainly help matters. The following names are only from people whom at least 2 of our known 3 characters have commented on. As it stands, these people look worst:
Lommy

These people look neutral:
TGWBS
Kath
Manwe
SpM

Dear Annatar! Everybody else comes under "not enough data." Nogrod and Rikae, please share your opinions on people. This type of meta-analysis can be very helpful, I feel.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Dear Annatar! Everybody else comes under "not enough data." Nogrod and Rikae, please share your opinions on people. This type of meta-analysis can be very helpful, I feel.

I'm coming and going for it... I just need a short break.

But you should remember that with Roa you can't just turn the things around that easily. I for one believe she actually thought Spm to be a faithful for instance. Remember what I said about the cobbler role in my last post before this.

[Mithalwen]

Just checking in ..seems I have a lot ot catch up on...

[The Saucepan Man]

I find the possibility that Rikae is lying and Roa telling the truth remote almost to the point of impossibility.

Originally Posted by Tar-Roa

The only "malice" in that case was toward someone whom I still believe to be a Wolf, and I'm not surprised that you're only too happy to support Rikae. After all, it "saves you the inconvenience" of having to answer my accusations. How very convenient for you.

Yes, how very convenient for me to have to acknowledge that, yet again, I have managed to vote for the Seer (and so contributed to her having to reveal herself). And I am not going to answer accusations from one whom I firmly believe to be the Cobbler.

I am running out of time and, in view of the limited time that I have had available toDay, I am not prepared to cast my vote for somone who may well be innocent when I can cast it for someone that I am convinced is the Cobbler.

So, without further ado …

++ROA_AOIFE

[Lalaith]

This is so annoying, I have only just got home, and must go out again quite shortly. I only have time to skim-read the thread. But there is one basic fact we have to go on.
The wolves killed no-one last night.
The most likely scenario:
Rikae is, as she says, the seer, the ranger protected her and the wolves, gambling on a bluff by the ranger, tried and failed to kill her.
In this scenario, Roa must the Cobbler.

Other possible scenarios.
Rikae is a wolf. In this case the wolves must have decided not to kill anyone, in order to confuse the village. Is that even allowed under the rules? Very unlikely indeed.

Rikae is the cobbler. This is slightly more likely. The ranger would have protected her, thinking her the seer, and the wolves, also thinking her the seer, try to kill her. But why would Cobbler-Rikae say Roa was the Cobbler? Cobbler-Rikae does not know, any more than the rest of us, who is a wolf. So, if we then turn on Roa and kill her, and Roa turns out to be a wolf, the Rikae-Cobbler will have failed in her duty.

No, I find these scenarios too unlikely to be plausible. So, rather than risk killing an innocent, I will vote:
++ROA

[Mithalwen]

TGWBS .. I think it is over simplistic to say that if Roa (assuming she is Tar Miriel) casts suspicion on someone it means she thinks they are innocent. I am not a hundred percent on Rikae (After last time, couldn't be ), but whatever Roa is she is subtle and has a strategic mind - bet she plays chess. My query about her statement was made with the awareness that there might be aspects of the matter that had bypassed me completely.

I don't know why you are so hung up on my first post.... sometimes the only useful thing an innocent can do is to toss balls in the air and see who reacts. In such a spirit I maintained my vote for Lalaith - I didn't deliberately fritter time - I had no watch and was misled by the time differences (the Downs and Computer were bith wrong ). I thought Garin was being himself and Manwe seemed new rather than guilty so ..... One of those things you can't completely win on - I was criticised for an "anyone to save Boro" vote last time ....

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now you're talkin' my fisherman! Even though I would hate to lose an innocent Roa - I really would - there is sense in this. I mean I first hesitated and was kind of agreeing with Rikae's suggestion that we do not waste our lynch on her toDay. But there is one problem there and it is as follows.

If we let Roa live and Rikae makes it through the Night, we can't say it is because she (Rikae) is a Faithful and has fooled us or because the wolves are bluffing us. And that in turn would mean both that we kill an innocent toDay with some pretty considerable probabilities and that we will be faced with real tough dilemmas toMorrow as to what to do, thus increasing the risk that our gifteds feel the need to reveal themselves...

If you kill Roa today, you're throwing away every advantage I've managed to give you. If the faithfuls did decide to bluff by leaving me alive until tomorrow, you could lynch me then and prove my identity, and you would have another dream. Of course, the faithfuls know that and won't leave me alive - which means tomorrow you will have two known "non-faithfuls" - Nogrod and Roa.
Roa counts as an innocent, and since she's been revealed, she can do no harm. My dreams will be verified soon enough.
Kill Roa and you lose one "known nonfaithful" and reduce your numbers by one. Kill someone else and you stand a chance of getting a faithful - or at least, you still have two you can remove from the list of possible faithfuls tomorrow, when I'm dead.
Feel free to disregard my advice, but I'm telling you, you're throwing away your advantage.
I'll read over the thread one more time and post my thoughts on everyone in a few minutes...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Whither you like Roa or not and whither she is good or bad one has to recognise her skills! Even now when all evidence points towards her being the cobbler she mannage to put doubts in my mind.

I think the only sensible thing to do is to let Roa live for at least another day. . . That I think is the safest action to take.

About Legate. . .I deffinitly got a better feel from his last post than yesterday, it seemed more genuin. He is a bit flip-flopish/unsure about what he wants to do about Roa, I don't know if anything should be read into it or if it is as it seems, just normal doubts.

Some attention is gathering around Brinniel and I think it is justified, I know that RL has been pretty bussy for her so that could have something to do with why she is not saying much.

Something seems not to be right, maybe she is just a bit unsure about how to go about these affairs and therefor hold back when writting.

I also do not understand her suspcions against Hookbill, I suppose it might be kind of how iI felt about Legate.

EDIT: Cross Posted with Roa and Mänwe

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

I suppose what worries most about Brinniel is that she says so incredibly little. Her posts are scarce and scanty.

I'm not going to become all defensive at TGWBS's suspicisions, for I think it would be pointless. However, I will point out that I do not say much because I am a naturally quiet person. Perhaps it seems for you, but it's quite normal for me.

As for Roa's claims, I find it more likely she is lying than Rikae. After all, wouldn't it only be typical for a cobbler revealed to deny her role?

Back to Hookbill, he could very well, be honest, but then again, he good also be a good bluff. I'm still not sure about him...

And the more and more I am becoming suspicious of Legate. From his last post, he seems to think no one is suspicious and I find that a bit odd.

Anyways, I have to go to class and must vote very shortly, and I'm not quite sure who yet...

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Please Roa, you have worked just as a great cobbler would. I know this from some experiences (nasty and nice). It's clear that a Cobbler's game actually starts only at a later date, but there is one thing the cobbler must ensure and that is not to be dreamt of early in the game. With a player of your stature it's pretty probable to be dreamt of so you'd have to be extra helpful to gain the trust needed. And what have you done? Look at how people have reacted to the news: "I was going to praise you, but *sigh*". Great playing Roa! *bowsdown*

I always play this way, evil or not, and you know it, Nogrod. Analysis is what I do. Of course I'm not surprised you support Rikae- she named you innocent! As long as everyone believes her, you avoid scrutiny.

As for Roa's claims, I find it more likely she is lying than Rikae. After all, wouldn't it only be typical for a cobbler revealed to deny her role?

It's also be typical for someone who's innocent to deny that claim, as well, Brinniel.

I can see defending myself is getting me nowhere. Fine, believe Rikae. Lynch me and see that I'm innocent, or wait for her to be alive tomorrow.

[Brinniel]

Urgh...I really hate to be rushed, but I have to go, so I absolutely must cast a vote NOW.

Though I am still a bit suspicious of Hookbill, I do not want to vote him just quite yet. A little more observation is required.

Legate's posts seem to be careful...too careful. He seems to want to be on everyone's side, and as I stated before can't seem to find anyone suspicious to him. While I'm still not sure about him, I have no one else to go on and must vote:

++Legate

If I have time to look back before the Day is over (which I probably won't), I certainly will.

[Roa_Aoife]

I don’t believe Roa’s protests for one moment (particularly as she was so quick herself to accept Rikae’s declaration when it came).

When there is a seer reveal in the last few moments of the day, I vote to save the supposed seer, based solely on the premise that if they are faking, it will soon be found out anyways. It's safer to save the "seer" and wait for the next Day than to start doubting all over again.

Unless ofcourse, no one believes you.

Her mischaracterisation of my participation yesterDay was so breathtaking (to my mind, anyway) that I could not believe that there was no malice behind it. As I read through, I was coming round to the conclusion that she must be the Cobbler, since she has been behaving way to boldly for a Faithful, even by her standards.

The only "malice" in that case was toward someone whom I still believe to be a Wolf, and I'm not surprised that you're only too happy to support Rikae. After all, it "saves you the inconvenience" of having to answer my accusations. How very convenient for you.

One productive line of enquiry, it seems to me, will be to review Roa’s “handy dandy” analyses and see who she may have been trying to draw suspicion away from.

At least those aren't getting ignored. If that was your plan, you failed, Rikae.

EDIT: X'd with Nogrod

[Roa_Aoife]

Even though what Roa says is perfectly possible I would also like to remind us - and myself the most - that bogging down in this issue and not hunting for the Faithfuls would be an excellent masterpiece of Cobblery, the very thing Roa is here suspected of!

If you believed me, you'd have a baddie right now. And a second, because this is far too convenient for SPM. Maybe that was Rikae's plan- she knows SPM is a Faithful and wants to completely discredit my case against him. By the time you know she's lying, it will have been forgotten.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, seeing as I started crying when I read Kath's post, I think I'm getting way too worked up about this. I'm going to take a break for a little while. Ask questions of me, if you want. I'll answer them when I get back.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Maybe that was Rikae's plan- she knows SPM is a Faithful and wants to completely discredit my case against him. By the time you know she's lying, it will have been forgotten.

No. I've no intention of forgetting Spm and indeed his last post awoke pretty similar reactions in me as it seems to have aroused in you. But remember also my dear Roa, the way a good Cobbler works is by being reasonable as often as she can and I have no doubt that most that you did at least on Day1 was quite straightforward and open. What else could you have done not knowing the identities of the Faithfuls?

Trying to say then: I think it much more probable that you're a Cobbler than Rikae as so many things seem to fit. As I said, I admit it's not fool-proof and there is a chance it being the more improbable way.

But I'll try to think of other things for a while just to refresh my mind.

[Durelin]

Way to go Rikae!! With just two dreams, you have nailed the Cobbler. Though there are still four wolves out there, we finally might have a lead on something.

And dang...that's a lot of work for just a Cobbler.

I feel we have no reason to think that Rikae is not the Seer, though unfortunately I suppose we will find out for certain tomorrow. I suppose the best course of action is mostly ignoring Roa, though we should try and use her "suspicions" and non-suspicions of people as leads.

The most obvious person she has expressed faith in is Legate. But...this is Roa. Why would her analysis leave him that spotless if she thought he was a wolf? While it is entirely possible (double bluff sorta thing?), I don't see her having any reason to do it, anyway. It wasn't as if he was in need of protection. We certainly shouldn't ignore her "I like him" business in the long run, but I think right now we will *crosses fingers* have more luck going in a more middle direction. Perhaps it would be better to look at those she barely acknowledged, and those she more mildly "defended" or approved of.

Of course, I doubt we have much information. Such a talkative Cobbler is largely out to confuse. Except that her analyses make sense! Considering she does not know who the wolves are (unless...the wolves or Mod Mac don't get to tell her or hint at whether her list is accurate? The wolves see it, though, right? But I suppose that doesn't tell them anything for certain, either.), perhaps she even did an excellent analysis sealing the death of one of her comrades. Sounds like something I'd do as Cobbler...well, when I'm not going after SPM just for the heck of it. I should have noticed it earlier; her sarcasm and persistent accusations are quite like the kind of Cobbler I enjoy. Thank you, Roa, for the entertainment.

I have one little quibble for Lommy...

Originally Posted by Lommy

16. Durelin retrcats from Rikae and votes for Mänwe
Obviously because of Rikae's revelation. Has had somewhat vague suspicions about him before.

I didn't vote for Rikae. I voted for Manwe (as you stated before), then I switched to Garin. Maybe I should try retracting a vote to vote for someone again to see if anyone notices.

Right now I feel like Hookbill, Brinniel, and Lommy all have a bit of a forced, edgy sort of feel to their posts (yes, I used "feel" twice. So lynch me.), but I definitely do not suggest they are all three wolves or even two of them are, though it's possible. I think Brinniel's vote for Legate, though it is far from baseless, is a very easy vote - with the revelation of Roa as the Cobbler, the easiest choice for a vote is in fact Legate simply for her praise of him. Perhaps it is that easy, and she was defending who she thought was a wolf...but even then there's no guarantee he is one. And right now, I don't have a feel for him.

Unfortunately I'm at school right now so I can only do a quick skim. I'll be back later, an hour before the deadline, to say more. Wish I could be back earlier, but...well, one more year of high school. *dashes off to Latin class*

[Kath]

OOC: Ok. Essay is done, internet is working, let's get down to some serious game playing!

Well, I was about to ask whether anyone else thought Roa was posting like a mad woman in order to put people off analysing her for some dastardly reason, and thanks to Rikae I have an answer! For all that some people have said we might as well leave her alive since she's not a Faithful I think it would be worth killing her. Firstly we're rid of a most confusing influence, and second the thread will get a good bit shorter!

Roa reviewed almost everyone before Rikae came out with her dream, but of course she has no more idea on who the wolves are than we do so I'm not sure how much help those will be. It is possible that those she thinks look more innocent may actually be Faithfuls thanks to Cobbler logic, but since she doesn't know for sure nor do we.

However, on Day 1 she did specifically say she thought Manwe was either Cobbler or Faithful, which I think clears him slightly. Roa's bold, but I'm not sure she'd be so bold as to add support to an already forming bandwagon if she thought he really might be a wolf. Not that early on in the game.

I have to admit that I skim read all of those long analyses today and so can't say anything about them yet. I'll go back and read them, see if they give me any ideas.

EDIT: Cross-posted with at least 3/4 people.