Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I spent a couple of minutes reading Nogrod's statements, and I'm more confused than I was a few minutes ago.

Originally Posted by Nogrod, post 132

Well the numbers surely are shrinking with a bit too fast pace but happily there seems to be some good news as well with the Ranger making a great save. And now our Ranger too has a known innocent in her/his pocket and will probably live at least up to toMorrow. So with that save we kind of managed to get a borrowed Seer for one Night! Meaning: in Day3 we should have at least two living known innocents around and possibly the ranger might save it then again (50-50 chance of them being around on Day4 as well)... That would help our task considerably.

Kudos to her/him! And a bow.

Originally Posted by Nogrod, post 134

Sorry people... I was maybe getting a bit too optimistic back there...

It just occured to me that the wolves might have been so stupid as not to try and kill someone else safely the last Night but go straightforwards to Rikae (counting she's the Seer) and thence obviously be denied the kill in the first place.

Or is it a most Devillish plan where all this is staged to cover up for a false Seer? But it shouldn't work. It just couldn't. Too risky (even for Roa? ) so long as a right Seer still lives and killing her/him soon would be most reckless too - even with four faithfuls around.

So maybe we don't have two known innocents toMorrow. I was just too happy, too early...

It's just weird... I mean, he's a sensible and rational guy, we all know that... And as to a kill that has been denied when there's a known seer, wouldn't it be logical to think that the ranger played it safe protected the seer and the wolves risked trying to kill her? I mean, thinking from the wolves' point of view, there's still four of them, three ordos are dead, the seer's revealed... They have a situation in which they can risk checking if the ranger was protecting Rikae or not. And they decided to take this risk. That's how I see it. My question is why is Nogrod making this so complicated? I know he can think in a bit complicated way at times, but... Also, calling the wolves stupid sounds like something a wolf could do. I don't understand this... Is Nogrod a confused and far-fetched inocent, a cobbler or a bluffing wolf?

edit: xed with Hookbill

[Brinniel]

I will honestly admit (since there still seems to be some talk about it) that in my first post, my comment about Hookbill was just harmless banter. Yet, as I observe him, I am beginning to question his innocence. He repeatedly admits that he is not good at this game, that he is unsure and a bit lost. While his comments do seem sincere, there is a small part of me that wonders if his confusion is just a ploy.

I believe it is Roa who said I am a thoughtful player, and indeed I am. I must think further on this before making any actual assumptions...

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Anyways you might not belive me, but I did/do want to vote Legate, his attempt to be the voice of reason just seemed over the top. He reminds me of those ever so good people that end up being the real bad guy in cartoons. . .I don't know what else to say as their is not theory behind it, it is purly gut and feeling that legate is trying to hard.

Indeed, this is an interesting thought. I haven't really formed any opinions over Legate yet, though I would like to see how he posts toDay.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I will honestly admit (since there still seems to be some talk about it) that in my first post, my comment about Hookbill was just harmless banter. Yet, as I observe him, I am beginning to question his innocence. He repeatedly admits that he is not good at this game, that he is unsure and a bit lost. While his comments do seem sincere, there is a small part of me that wonders if his confusion is just a ploy.

I actually agree with you. I mean, 90% of his posts is either banter, wailing about not being good in this game or defense of himself. Sounds suspicious, but would a wolf do this?
I agree that his comments about his confusion seem sincere, but there's the possibility he really is confused, and he uses it to his own advance (to get sympathy or seem harmless or to avoid making any real cases and thus tracks) by repeating and exaggerating it. That's something to consider.

[Thinlómien]

So, all votes and the reasons for them, from yesterday: (I'm doing known innocents too, just for the record)

1. Durelin for Mänwe
For a little extreme day1-chatting, "his bragging of his fisherman wisdom is getting to me" and she says she has nothing better to go on.

2. Rikae for Mänwe
"Because there is something slightly forced, or fabricated, about the actual content of his posts" , underlines that there was a "lack of any other leads at the moment".

3. Mänwe for Nogrod
No reasoning in the actual vote post. Has previously suspected him for numerous reasons - at least for "alluding to the absence of others", for picking Glirdan so early, for not answering Mänwe's and Rune's points/questions and because suspecting a wolvish co-operation of Noggie, Roa, SPM and Kitanna.

4. Thinlómien for Rikae
For a weird early vote and an unreasonable case, emphasises too that there's not very much to go on yet.

5. Garin for Nogrod
Because he didn't want to vote his other suspects (Mith and Rikae) and because Nogrod might prove a dangerous werefaithful.

6. Garin retracts from Nogrod and votes for Rikae
Is confused. Because voting Nogrod was in fact against his instinct and "because you shouldn't take votes lightly".

7. Brinniel for Rikae
Says she's going with her gut and because Rikae "only posted once, and within that post, made a hasty vote with little reason to back it up...".

8. TGWBS for Garin
Says he must either be a faithful or the cobbler, because of his weird vote and vote switch.

9. Roa_Aoife for SPM
Because of everything she had stated before and because she thinks it's suspicious for Sauce to consider Nogrod's behaviour unusual since in her opinion he's just normal. The previous states suspicions are Sauce trying to make Nog look more aggressive than he actually is, Sauce being eager to form a bond with Mänwe, Sauce comparing his own reasonableness with Nogrod's unreasonableness, Sauce's "too good at directing his wording to point one way, when he's actually meaning something else", Sauce has Rikae as a "back-lynchee" and Roa doesn't like Sauce's cases against Noggie overall.

10. Kitanna for Garin
"His vote for Nogrod seemed odd. He had a case going against Rikae, but decided not to vote for her because it could be viewed as a safe vote. -- I'm confused by his actions and am somewhat alarmed by them."

11. Rune for Garin
Does not want to spread the vote (would have preferred voting Legate), and says that Garin's more suspicious than Mänwe. Previously has said that his voting post (the vote for Nogrod) is contradictory and that he's odd.

12. SPM for Rikae
"Rikae's seeming enthusiasm for promoting the (then) gathering Manwe bandwaggon looks the more suspicious to me." Also finds her explanation about time problems unconvincing and her vote placement suspicious.

13. Hookbill for Mänwe
Because he has no better suspect and Mänwe acts oddly, admits that this might be retaliatory suspicion.

14. Holbytlass for Garin
There was nothing else than the vote in her post (and as she's a known dead innocent I'm too lazy to reskim through the thread to find out if she suspected him before or not, and if yes, why).

15. Lalaith for Holbytlass
Because she thinks Holby's a cobbler sending signals to the werefaithfuls.

16. Durelin retrcats from Rikae and votes for Mänwe
Obviously because of Rikae's revelation. Has had somewhat vague suspicions about him before.

17. Roa retracts from SPM and changes to Garin
Again, because of the seer-thing. Garin was her other main suspect (alongside with SPM), mainly because of his "weird display before he left" meaning the vote-switch, I assume.

18. Legate for Mänwe
States no reasons in his vote post, has previously suspected him for accusing out of nothing and being harsh/ruthless and mixing Roa with Nogrod.

19. Mithalwen for Lalaith
"Because Rikae seems safe." Has expressed suspicion of Lalaith's first post and has sais that unlike usually, Lalaith does not seem fine to her.

20. Nogrod for Mänwe
Thinks he might be the cobbler. Voting to assure Rikae's safe (or so I assume).

21. Lalaith retracts from Holby and votes Mänwe
To assure that Rikae's safe. Is not very inclined to suspect Mänwe in general.

~*~

Well, that took almost an hour and I'm not sure if I'm any wiser. Not my method, it seems.

Lalaith's second vote has been criticised, and I don't see why. It seems everybody was a bit confused about the vote counts late yesterday and every good servant of Annatar would try to assure that the high priest's safe.

I don't know precisely why, but Brinn's vote makes me slightly uneasy. It's somehow too clean and fitting... and bandwagonish... but I don't know. I'm trying to puzzle if I would have still voted Rikae at that phase of the day, or would I have had some better suspect... I don't know... But if it's a possibility that I'd still had voted Rikae, should I exonerate Brinn's vote?

I understand Rune did not want to spread the vote, but... Why didn't he build a solid case against Legate and try to convert others to his side rather than give up his only serious suspicion not to spread the vote?

~*~

I'll be back in a few hours, then I can be around for about an hour (or a bit less) and then I have to vote and go.

[Rikae]

Well, sorry to inform you of this folks, but you're relying on analysis done by none other than Tar-Míriel.
I wouldn't waste today's lynch on Roa, if I were you, but perhaps she's left a bit of a trail in her voluminous contributions. After all, she probably has a good idea who the faithfuls are.

Of course, lynching Roa will prove I'm the "high priestess"; but tonight will prove that at any rate.

You might want to take a look at anyone else who has suspected Nogrod, or at the very least, you can write him off the suspect list - he's innocent.
I'm sorry I haven't been more help - I should be able to join the discussion this afternoon (EST), but if not, good luck!

[Thinlómien]

Okay, thanks for exonerating Nogrod, now I don't need to be puzzled about those statements!

And OMG (if I'm allowed to use that term ), believe me or not, I almost posted half-jokingly toDay that Roa might be the cobbler !!! since she's flood-posting in such amounts and that countless analysises (analysi?) is a very good way of confusing people... But then I concluded that flooding analysis is Roa's normal behaviour and decided to forget about the idea of Tar-Roael and leave the joke be...
What can we conclude from this? Answer: always trust your sense of humour.

Now (before you all get annoyed with me ) I'll start working on something more contributive/constructive...

[the guy who be short]

Thank you Rikae for that information (although I thought the Seer would see the Cobbler as an innocent?). I was just about to say that you should reveal your dreams before you die toNight (inevitable, as you were protected yesterNight).

Now then, it is vexing that Roa is Tar-Miriel, and hopefully we'll be able to analyse her posts and glean some information.

However, much more to the point, we have two known innocents: Nogrod and Rikae. This is very important because, while their views are subjective, they are innocent. Anybody else could be a wolf, and so their views and analyses can never quite be trusted - look at Roa for example. I was just thinking how helpful all this analysis is, and it turns out she's been trying to deceive us all this time.

What we must do, then, is use Nogrod and Rikae as a platform. Our votes should be based upon their ideas, simply because we know that their ideas are all coming from innocent people.

We should take this opportunity while we can. Rikae will die tonight, and Nogrod will probably die soon after.

I will now name a few of my own suspicions before going over posts by Nogrod, Rikae, and Roa.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

What we must do, then, is use Nogrod and Rikae as a platform. Our votes should be based upon their ideas, simply because we know that their ideas are all coming from innocent people.

So were getting back to idolising known innocents? It's something I dislike. While you can argue that their opinions are certainly not wolvish ones or ploys, their ideas aren't any better only because they're known innocents. I think everybody should heed the known innocents' advice - and give it more worth than to other villagers' advice - but the village should not leave thinking to only a few people or trust the known innocents' judgement simply because they're innocent. I think you can safely say that we should trust and heed Rikae and Nogrod more than other fellow villagers, but we certainly should not stop believing in our own reasoning or stop thinking ourselves or limit our list of suspects because Rikae and Noggie don't suspect some people.

This might be only because I disagree with TGWBS on this matter, but suggesting that seems a wolvish thing to do... I mean, what's a better tactic for a wolf than idolising known innocents? Pretty much everyone agrees that their advice should be heeded, and by suggesting things like this you generally get more trust and people might consider you more innocent... I can't express this properly, but I think this is suspicious.
Besides, if TGWBS was a wolf, whose companions were not much suspected, this could be a very good tactic for him, taking the attention and the lynch-mob further from his fellows.
But I guess I won't pursue that interpretation further, because I have no more basis for claiming that than claiming that I look like a wolf whose fellows are suspected by Rikae and Nogrod and I'm trying to save them by attacking TGWBS's theory...

~*~

And I guess we shouldn't heed anything Roa says anymore. From now on, she will try to confuse us even more. Even though she does not know the identities of the wolves, I'm sure she can manage to mess up our minds and thoughts and even that itself is an advantage to the wolves.

[Rikae]

Well, before I go, if you're going to be using my ideas as a starting point I suppose I should let you know what I've been thinking today...
I know I said looking at the voters-for-me was futile, but I do think Lommy has been giving off a faithful-ish vibe - slightly nervous, jumpy and unsubstantive, trying to appear helpful... I don't have time to go into a detailed analysis right now (religious rites, ie, school), but I'll try to supply one before I ... get off the train at Baltimore. (Kick the bucket, buy the farm, you get the picture.)
I just thought throwing that out there might give you somewhere to start...although this is just a hunch on my part, and certainly fallible.

EDIT: X'd with Lommy.