Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Mithalwen]

Roa likes lots of talk so she can examine it. There is nothing odd about that per se.

I am going to have a look at the various people who have taken the somewhat flippant sentence of my "stating the obvious" first post so seriously while (wilfully?) ignoring the serious one - since I know I was well intentioned I have to consider that they may not be:

"Given we don't want to force gifteds to out themselves to save their necks or to out those we think may be gifted in order to defend them, we should remember that that gifteds as well as wolves are liable to give out an "odd" vibe and that while in most villages only the wolves know about each other here the hunter and ranger know about each other. But if anyone has a watertight method for distinguishing gifted odd vibe from wolvish odd vibe please share!"

With nothing to comment on I just wanted to remind the village of the possible dynamics. I can't be certain whether someone seems odd becasue they are a wolf trying to fly under the radar or, say, a ranger who is trying to second guess the wolves as well as catch them but if someone seems "odd" then I do think it is worth reviewing them with all possibilities in mind before you start a bandwaggon. I am not saying don't go after those who you find suspicious.

I hope that is clear...

And if rhetorical means what I think it means - ie not expecting an answer - yes it was.......

[Nogrod]

I have been thinking about Mr. Spam and the more I do it the more confused I get.

It looks like he is grasping at every straw he can twist. And it looks pretty odd.

First he goes on saying that myself and Roa are berating the quieter ones when all I had said about the issue is practically this here:

#19Speak up people, otherwise we can't nail the baddies... and if it becomes to that, I will be the first to vote for those who do not talk without an acceptable explanation.

When he comes back 12 hours later he sticks with his original and obviously faulty idea that:

Originally Posted by SPaM

#58While I am keen for people to speak as much as possible, I am content to give them more than a few hours to do so. You, on the other hand, appeared to be rather cheesed off that most of the village had not spoken in the early hours.

Then he goes on adding that remarkable suspicion that Kath and I are up to no good as we had voiced some optimism because of the basic setting of the game.

Originally Posted by SPaM

It’s possible that one or both may be trying to lull us into a false sense of security.

I mean what is this? How does this relate to anything? How do people act in a state of "false security" and what follows from that? Sorry but I just don't get this. If on the other hand SPaM is only trying to come up with anything someone might bite, then it would be more understandable.

Anyhow he then makes the next points

What does concern me, however, is that there appear to have been a number who have championed him (Mänwe) as a primary candidate for lynching, and I do wonder whether this might have resulted from a perception by one or more of the Faithful that his style might make him a possible Day 1 lynch.
---------------
I wonder whether he (Glirdy) too may have been targeted as a potential easy Day 1 lynch.

So long as the lynch is not bent towards one of them it's pretty much the same to the were-faithfuls who is lynched. Why risk making an open campaign? But only if there is something like a big fish to be lynched.

And then there was this stuff about me targeting Glirdy especially which I think I already showed was nonsense.

So what to make of this? Is he just in a hurry and careless and just forgets what has actually been said? But he manages to remember things wrongly always towards the same direction...

If there ever was anyone trying to frame someone else, this might meet the criteria?

EDIT: X'd with a host of posts.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Roa

3rd post - Thinks it's odd that Nogrod and Roa are "berating" the quiet.

(Here he clearly takes things out of proportion. Niether Nogrod nor myself "berated" anyone. We said the exact same thing that he said- talking good, quiet bad)

OK. For the second time today, I was not “taking things out of proportion” when I made this comment. I was merely noting that it seemed rather odd to be criticising people for not having posted yet when we were only just over three hours into the game (and in the middle of the night, for some people). The points that I had in mind in particular in making this statement were the following:

Originally Posted by Roa

There's always something to comment on. So get to commenting people.

Seriously, it's Day 1, everyone's alive, where are they?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It's almost downright insulting that I'm the number one poster at this point with just a few posts.

Speak up people, otherwise we can't nail the baddies... and if it becomes to that, I will be the first to vote for those who do not talk without an acceptable explanation.

I would probably have thought little more of it, but for the reaction my comment seems to have garnered, which is where the disproportionate reaction lies, to my mind.

Originally Posted by Roa

I never "jumped on" Glirdan. I was using him as an example of what not to do.

I never said that you did. Indeed, I don’t think that I accused anyone of “jumping” on Glirdan. Nogrod’s early statements concerning Glirdan’s (only) post did, however, arouse my suspicions. He repeated them above, but I shall set them out here for ease of reference:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Glirdy looks somewhat normal but there is a feeling I get from his post... I don't know what. I know I myself disagree with voting the most "usual suspects" as it tends to turn bad for us, but still I can't help feeling that from those already posted I would say he's the most suspicious one. But that's a little to say and calls for reconsideration after some more posting from you all...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Glirdy seems to be too detached for a villager. Just casually making himself present but in an alienated way. It sounds bad to be sure.

Hope you have more to say later on Glirdy! I know it's early, but there are things to be observed other than "substance" also early in the game, like attitudes behind the words... the problem is that an unenchanted villager might go for it as you do.

Glirdan’s first post is nothing more than an “I’m here, but have nothing much to say”. Now, while this sort of post does annoy me, I am not inclined to view it as sinister, taken alone. Nogrod, however, referred to him as “the most suspicious one” (at that, admittedly early, stage) and categorised it as “bad to be sure”. Yes, he said he wanted to hear more from Glirdy. But, if Glirdan was identified as a possible Day 1 target by the Faithfuls, then this was an appropriate time, from their perspective, to start sowing the seeds of doubt in him.

Originally Posted by Roa

But SPM irks me in a most sinister way. He's too good at directing his wording to point one way, when he's actually meaning something else. I never trust him, to be sure, but I especially don't like his case against Nogrod.

Trust is a difficult thing to come by in this game, so I would not expect you to trust me. But, I should be grateful if you would explain your reasoning further. I have said nothing other than that which I intended to say, and mean. My “case” against Nogrod, which actually amounts to finding him one of the two most suspicious villagers at this stage, is based upon the various points identified in my previous post which, while seemingly innocuous when taken individually, are sufficient to arouse my suspicions when taken together.

I hope that clarifies.

Your “case” against Manwe, already an early contender for possible lynching, in turn troubles me, Roa. However, I still find Rikae, with her hasty vote for him, the most suspicious among those agitating against him, so my main suspicions remain with her and Nogrod. And I cannot believe that both you and Nogrod are Faithfuls. Melkor help us if you are.

I am not sure whether I will be around for much longer, so must vote soon. I will review to see whether there are any other points worth considering before doing so.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

OK. For the second time today, I was not “taking things out of proportion” when I made this comment. I was merely noting that it seemed rather odd to be criticising people for not having posted yet when we were only just over three hours into the game (and in the middle of the night, for some people). The points that I had in mind in particular in making this statement were the following.

You had the unfortunate responsibility of being the Mirth Mod when the ugly incident went down about playing styles, and niceness, and respect, etc, so you know how Nogrod and I are when we are "berating" anyone. Not only that, but you had time to comment on these before you did so, and yet you waited until Manwe made his case. Convenient, because if Nogrod is lynched and found innocent, the first perspon everyone will look to is Manwe, not you.

I never said that you did. Indeed, I don’t think that I accused anyone of “jumping” on Glirdan. Nogrod’s early statements concerning Glirdan’s (only) post did, however, arouse my suspicions. He repeated them above, but I shall set them out here for ease of reference:

I was responding to Manwe when I said that. You know as well as I do that Nogrod's "case" (if it cam be called that) against Glirdan is standard for early in the Day, not having much to go on, and throwing things out there to be discussed. In fact, Manwe did the very same thing, albeit in a far bolder and tactless manner. You find those who jumped on Manwe for such behavior suspicious. Is it so surprising that I do the same?

Glirdan’s first post is nothing more than an “I’m here, but have nothing much to say”. Now, while this sort of post does annoy me, I am not inclined to view it as sinister, taken alone. Nogrod, however, referred to him as “the most suspicious one” (at that, admittedly early, stage) and categorised it as “bad to be sure”. Yes, he said he wanted to hear more from Glirdy. But, if Glirdan was identified as a possible Day 1 target by the Faithfuls, then this was an appropriate time, from their perspective, to start sowing the seeds of doubt in him. (Emphais mine)

That's a big IF. Yes, early targeting is a tactic, but in order to see Nogrod's posts as such, you'd have to pre-assume him guilty. If he's innocent, it makes sense as an attempt to look at what was available and make a statement about it.

Trust is a difficult thing to come by in this game, so I would not expect you to trust me. But, I should be grateful if you would explain your reasoning further. I have said nothing other than that which I intended to say, and mean. My “case” against Nogrod, which actually amounts to finding him one of the two most suspicious villagers at this stage, is based upon the various points identified in my previous post which, while seemingly innocuous when taken individually, are sufficient to arouse my suspicions when taken together.

Of course you say what you intend- you're subtle and clever with words. (Lawyer :P ) That's why I look for subtleties (such as making Nogrod seem unreasonable, or as though he is behaving in a manner not typical to him.)

I hope that clarifies.

It does, but not what you intended to clarify.

Your “case” against Manwe, already an early contender for possible lynching, in turn troubles me, Roa.

No explanation as to why? Such a shame, since expect the same from evryone else. (Except Manwe, whose case you've latched onto and are attempting to bolster.)

However, I still find Rikae, with her hasty vote for him, the most suspicious among those agitating against him, so my main suspicions remain with her and Nogrod. And I cannot believe that both you and Nogrod are Faithfuls. Melkor help us if you are.

How convenient that you have a fall back lynchee. This way you can back out and vote for either of them to avoid the suspicion of lynching an innocent.

EDIT: X'd with everyone since SPM's last post.

[Durelin]

Typically, the two "loudest" people in the village, namely Nogrod and SPaM are getting some serious looking at. (And are going at each other. Ah, if Boro was in the mix there'd be five pages already.) I don't like this "lynch them, because if they are a Faithful, they're going to be dangerous. Well, if they aren't, could they not be "dangerous" to the Faithful in turn?

I'm not saying ignore them - that would be purely foolish - but we've been here before, people. Day 1 or 2, and we're already thinking "agh, so and so is here and alive?!" People say SPM is grasping, people say Nogrod is...wait, what exactly is everyone's point? That he's being accusatory? Well, what else can ya do? Any general theories are pretty much a waste of time. It's all about reactions.

And I find Manwe's reaction rather interesting. He still doesn't feel right to me, but I think a Faithful would be a little more honey-tongued than he is.

Rikae's jumping in and voting doesn't really make me suspicious of her, but the fact that she chose Manwe in succession with my vote, to bring him ahead in votes already is a little odd. It might seem crazy to be suspicious of people who agree with you, but...well, maybe you have a point there...

Garin - I apologize. I wasn't sure whether you had played before or not, but even if you had, I still thought a number of people in this game probably have never played with you before (including myself).

But now I find you pretty darn odd looking. You would have seemed more innocent to me had you stuck with your Nogrod vote, but the way you back off as if to avoid confrontation, and go with someone who's been remarked on quite a bit (and for the nice, simple reasoning of a quick vote)...looks like your trying to find an easy way out.

Well, really all I know is that it's quite funny that Kath seems pleased that I got down to business in my very first post, while Lommy finds it suspicious. You can't win.

[Brinniel]

My, my...

I certainly wish I had more time to mull over this, but I'm afraid I must leave shortly, therfore I must cast my vote now. I admit, I've had a name in mind for the last hour, yet I do find Garin's recent behaviour rather odd...to suddenly change votes when under pressure. I won't deny, for a moment I reconsidered my selection.

Yet, I do not change my mind so quickly and must go with my first instinct. She may end up being the popular choice, but I don't really care because I'm just going with my gut on this one. She only posted once, and within that post, made a hasty vote with little reason to back it up...so that is why I must vote for:

++Rikae

This will most likely be my last post for the first day, so I shall take my leave...

EDIT: X-ed with SpM and Durelin...

[Nogrod]

Okay... That was a nice episode!

I just can't find sense in what Garin just did, be he an innocent or a werecreature. It looks quite incomprehensible whatever way I try to look at it.

If he is a were-faithful he must be the jumpiest one I've ever seen... If he is an innocent he is the most confused. And still earlier in the day he seemed to be perfectly sensible.

Why did he wish to jump on me out of the blue as he clearly had no points against me? And why did he have to cover it up to that confusing theorizing? Well, there was already Mänwe's vote and SPaM's twisted interpretations. Was he hoping to put the ball rolling but when confronted withdrew because he realised how bad he would look toMorrow if I would have been lynched? A werecreature might be that jumpy. At least as he seemed to have been in a hurry (RL) and had to make a rushed decision...

I need to think again.

EDIT: X'd from SPaM on...

[Mithalwen]

I remember Garin being most perplexing the last time we played ...nothing has changed... that was very peculiar ....

[Rikae]

Well, I've been sleeping - and then I've been in school. What can I say? I voted early because (as I said on the admin thread before the game started, I believe), I wasn't sure if I would make it back in time to vote again, plus we have retractable votes. Manwe looked the most suspicious at that point.

In regard to the rest of the day's posts, I have just one thing I'd like to mention:

Originally Posted by Legate

I think I now understand how important is that all people post, because otherwise there is nothing to learn. And who sits and says nothing, is likely a wolf (err, Faithful) - or in worse case, he is a villager (who is not worth anything for the community, if I say it very nastily).

No, Legate. In the worst case, he is a gifted. Surely you know that...

I really don't have anything else to say at the moment, although I will be around, and may well change my vote - although it doesn't look as if it will matter. Manwe, as I said, seemed like the only lead at the time, but that means little, so early. In fact, it does seem that the most suspicious person on day one usually turns out to be innocent. I'm watching everyone closely... but I think I'll avoid naming other suspects just yet. As someone once said I'll wait for them to incriminate themselves further...

[Nogrod]

I'm a bit troubled by SPaM. But probably not enough to vote for him toDay. He would make a fine were-faithful and a darn good cobbler (I remember that one still... ) but lynching him with no better points than what I have now I find a bit too risky. If he's innocent he surely is an asset to us all.

Garin is another one I suspect somewhat. But there's something rotten in that whole affair I just can't pin down.

Rikae's vote-post did raise my eyebrows too and I would be very glad to hear something from her before the Day ends.

But as SPaM reminded me about my post last night (RL) I might also go for someone who has not contributed as the time comes. A contributing villager I think is much more fun to play with than a non-poster.

Happily there's time still.

[Kitanna]

I've only had a chance to skim and so far the thing that has really caught my attention is Rikae's vote. I'm going to read through the posts I've missed and I will hopefully get through them all before I have to return to class.

[Kitanna]

Looking at Rikae's vote and reason for voting for Manwe, I can see her logic. The thing that gets me is how close her vote is to Durelin's vote for Manwe. I'm not sure what to think of how Rikae voted. I hope she comes on before Day ends, though it seems unlikely since her vote was cast so early.

I'm glad to see Manwe addressed my questions and concerns and I understand his reasoning behind the four he picked in earlier posts (Nogrod, Roa, SpM, and myself). I feel somewhat better about Manwe when he's not dancing around a topic and avoiding answering questions.

I find this rather interesting, Glirdan's first post seemed very Glirdan to me. It was short and was of no use to anyone, but Nogrod jumped on it as alienated and distant from the village, sort of a forced response. Yet Gil-Galad's first post was much the same as Glirdan's, unhelpful and short, yet no one jumped on him as Glirdan was jumped on.

I'm wondering about this talk of Manwe being, ruthless (started by Legate I believe). I'm not sure if "harsh" is how I'd label him.

But what raises my eyebrow more is Garin's vote for Nogrod. Then a few posts later he switches to Rikae. First he voted for someone who was considered suspcious, but had not yet gained any votes, then he switches to someone who already has a vote and votes for her in a "safe vote" way. A safe vote being what he criticized her for in the first place.

Argh, I must run off to class and need to vote now. While Rikae's vote worries me (mainly due to the closeness of it to Durelin's) I am more uncomfortable with Garin and his vote.

++ Garin

His vote for Nogrod seemed odd. He had a case going against Rikae, but decided not to vote for her because it could be viewed as a safe vote. I feel that the vote for Nogrod could be seen as an equally safe vote. However a few posts later he changes his mind and switches the vote to Rikae. I'm confused by his actions and am somewhat alarmed by them.

Edit: cross-posted with Rikae, TGWBS, Rune, and Roa

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Hmmm I am at loss about what to do. . .

so far my thoughts are mostly directed at 5 people

Garin - Goes with out saying. . .it was very odd and I cannot figure out what that means.
Mänwe - Had some weird reasoning going or at least was just hard to understand. . .
Brinniel - Her reaction to Hookbill was quite odd
Legate - Legate's involvment in the Hookbill affair seemed somewhat fake. . .like he was trying very hard to become some sort of mediator
Holby - As I said before her quietness revoked bad memories, but I am feeling more easy about her now.

I will probably vote for one of these soon

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Rikae

What can I say? I voted early because (as I said on the admin thread before the game started, I believe), I wasn't sure if I would make it back in time to vote again

I could not find this on the admin thread.

As it is, neither Rikae nor Mithalwen has convinced me of their innocence. The evidence against them seems greater than the evidence pointing to their innocence.

However, Garin is the person who stands out most today after his voting. What on Arda was that? First he voted with no justification, then he backed down under pressure. If he is not a Faithful, he must be Tar-Miriel (after a quick sex-change, of course). The sooner we rid ourselves of him the better.

++GARIN

This is my last post today. Farewell.

[Roa_Aoife]

I was hoping to hang around till the end, but I have to be leaving.

So far, my top suspects are Garin and SPM. Garin, for that weird display before he left, and SPM for everything I've alread stated. (Because, Annatar knows Nogrod's never acted like that before. Ever. Nope. Totally anti-Nogrod. [And yes, that was sarcasm.]

Tempting as it is to vote Garin, I'm going to let him slide on the possibility that he may have been rushed. For now. That doesn't mean that I won't be looking at him later.


++SPM

Hopefully I'll see you on the Morrow.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

I could not find this on the admin thread.

I went back and looked and you're right - I said "Tuesday and Thursday".
Mondays vary - believe me or not, but I couldn't be sure if I'd get a chance to vote; I suppose I should have said so.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Roa

You had the unfortunate responsibility of being the Mirth Mod when the ugly incident went down about playing styles, and niceness, and respect, etc, so you know how Nogrod and I are when we are "berating" anyone.

By "berating", I did not mean to imply that either you or Nogrod where being offensive in the terms of the incident you refer to, and I apologise if it came across that way. My intention was merely to note as interesting (and, potentially, a relevant consideration) your seeming annoyance that so few were posting at that early stage.

Originally Posted by Roa

I was responding to Manwe when I said that.

Originally Posted by Roa

As to my accusers, (Manwe and SPM, and anyone else who I missed).

I never "jumped on" Glirdan.

I understood from the latter that you were also responding to me.

Originally Posted by Roa

That's a big IF.

Of course it is. But I was considering it in the context of the other points that I have raised. The point has been made that there is generally very little to go on on Day 1. I have been doing no more than outlining the points that I have found suspicious today. Of course I cannot be sure that my suspicions are well-founded. No one can (with one possible exception).

Originally Posted by Roa

No explanation as to why?

For the same reason that I regard the others who have been busy making cases against Manwe as suspicious. He presented himself as an easy target in the opening stages. He may well be a Faithful, or a Cobbler, for all I know. But I don't get that impression from what he has posted so far.

Originally Posted by Roa

It does, but not what you intended to clarify.

You seem to have made your mind up. There is little more that I can add to what I have said already.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm a bit troubled by SPaM. But probably not enough to vote for him toDay. He would make a fine were-faithful and a darn good cobbler (I remember that one still... ) but lynching him with no better points than what I have now I find a bit too risky. If he's innocent he surely is an asset to us all.

I could well say the same about you. But, then again, the point equally applies to Rikae, my other main suspect today.

As for others who are bubbling in my suspicions:

Garin: It practically goes without saying that his behaviour over the Nogrod/Rikae vote was odd. But then, as Mith has noted, Garin is a specialist at looking guilty when he's innocent.

Holby: Posting enough to be noticed, but saying very little. It's normal for her to be relatively quiet, but she's deadly with it when she's a Wolf (or, in current terminology, a Faithful). I'm keeping an eye on her.

Brinniel/Hookbill: That little exchange was interesting, but I'm prepared to put it down to a reaction to misunderstood banter - for now.

Mithalwen: For reasons earlier noted, although I am inclined to take her explanation at face value for the time being.

Still, Nogrod and Rikae remain foremost in my suspicions. It's a difficult one, since both would be a great loss, if innocent (or should I say, corrupt ). But Rikae's seeming enthusiasm for promoting the (then) gathering Manwe bandwaggon looks the more suspicious to me. And I find the explanation unconvincing. There was a large part of the Day to go when she voted.

++RIKAE

[Nogrod]

One thing that kind of bothers me - I tend to get this nagging feeling everytime the Day starts to draw near to an end - that maybe the werecreatures play exactly the way I think they should play if they were to win nicely. I mean being non-confrontational and relaxed, out of everyone's minds and eyes, far away from the center of discussion where the innocents bite each other.

If I ask this question from myself I must say that quite many of us do qualify. It is quite funny that although we all know this we still go with those who arouse the most discussion.

It's probably a bit too late to turn the pile upside down and start looking at it anew. Although with nine votes left (+retrackies) everything is open in principle.