Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, what an awakening!

I'm saying forward that I have no experience with Were-faithful, not even with Were-wolves as some of you have (being serving under our lord Annatar a long time ago or being hunted by the wolves in Hither lands before poor old king Pharazon made peace with lord Annatar). And the dispute about possible murderers of poor Macalaure already runs - until I was able to collect (I hope at least some) the information posted here, about a hour has passed and I have yet to leave for a moment, but fortunately, I'll be back in little time and then rethink everything. Possibly, something will come to me. But so far now, I want to add my bits to the discussion, just from what popped on me when reading this through. Only from my random thoughts, hopefully if I am completely "out of plate", you'd just ignore this.

I didn't quite catch the point of Mith and Lalaith's dispute about the Gifteds, generally (as someone already said here) I think it is the best for the Gifteds to stay hidden, so there is no concern of distinguishing them - they will try to leak their own bits of information to us, if I understand it correctly, it's the best they can do (without accidentally sacrificing themselves by revealing their identity).

Some peoples' posts seemed strange to me somehow at first, but after reading later on, I think I learned that is some way of "normal behavior" for them.

Mänwe seemed a little bit, let's say, harsh to me, but still this does not prove to me he's a Were-faithful. But if he is not Were-faithful, then I think it's just nonsense to make too much a mess like he did. Only for illustration, this:

Originally Posted by Mänwe

You also seem impatient to meet everyone; I cannot help but think it’s not just for a bit of idle chatter. Seeking the tastiest amongst us? I assure you, your lupine nose would turn at the smell of my quarters. Being stained with the smell of fish, which I would add is not in order to hide my evil musk!

This seems to me like accusing out of nothing. I also might add here that Roa seems ok to me, I didn't spot anything strange on her behavior here.

I'll write more now, but I really have to leave (I am 10 minutes late already, hence, I start understanding the WW players' feelings ). But surely I'll come back again and then re-think everything and hopefully bring things further.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Blast! I knew I'd left it too late. Now I have to read through all these posts before making any proper comments.
If nothing else, the death was... poetic? 'Seven' things an' all that stuff...

Back soon to make proper comments...

[the guy who be short]

I am answered regarding Glirdan, SpM. I also note that Roa did not actually voice much suspicion of him, so I retract the question from her also. But the question remains for durelin: Why were you worried by Glirdan not saying much, but not Kath?

Originally Posted by SpM

I am also slightly concerned at the way that Glirdan appears to have been targeted, by Nogrod in particular, without him actually having said very much.

Bear in mind this from Nogrod:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Speak up people, otherwise we can't nail the baddies... and if it becomes to that, I will be the first to vote for those who do not talk without an acceptable explanation.

A sensible view, and one I fully endorce. Though the above question now goes to Nogrod also: Why pick out Glirdan and avoid mentioning Kath, who also said nothing, but with more words?



For the record, voting now stands at:
Durelin -> Manwe
Rikae -> Manwe
Manwe -> Nogrod
Thinlomien -> Rikae

In conclusion, here is a list of what I feel the following villagers are most likly to be, and why, in no particular order:

Innocent
Nogrod - Dislikes those who are too quiet. Makes sense.
SpM - Makes a lot of sense. His slight accusation of Mith (see below)perked my interest - a very good point I hadn't noticed.

Faithful:
Mithalwen -

But if anyone has a watertight method for distinguishing gifted odd vibe from wolvish odd vibe please share!

This information should obviously not be shared.
Manwe - Too harsh and questioning, doesn't explain his list of potential Faithfuls, secretive and too in-character. Accuses Nogrod for his vocabulary.
Rikae - Her first post was a vote. While I agree with the vote, I would like to know why it was cast so quickly. I, personally, would require time to decide on a vote.

I am also ever so slightly suspicious of the quiet for the very fact of being quiet: Glirdan, Gil-Galad, The Might.


Finally, three things aimed at three people:
1) I would like to hear more from Mithalwen about her early request for information on identifying gifteds. I am most inclined to vote for Mith, for that statement and for being so quiet thereafter.
2) I would like Rikae to explain how she came to vote so rapidly.
3) Gil-Galad, can you explain your hunches? I understand the point of a hunch is to be inexplicable, which doesn't help us, but still.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by spm

To be fair, it is always worthwhile to bear in mind that Gifteds can sometimes appear suspicious, by their nature.

I'm well aware of that- but I believe it's the gifted's job to take care of themselves. We should go about the business of wolf hunting instead of fretting over our protectors.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What bothers me is that I tend to agree with Roa here (as we should be the cat and the dog - which one of us is what is an open question)...

*ahem* Meow.

Originally Posted by durelin

that's a lot of us to just go at each other's throats, isn't it?

You should have been here for Deuling Wizards.

Originally Posted by legate

I think I now understand how important is that all people post, because otherwise there is nothing to learn. And who sits and says nothing, is likely a wolf (err, Faithful) - or in worse case, he is a villager (who is not worth anything for the community, if I say it very nastily). But the wolves also need to go around and make a mess by putting us on wrong track, thus, if everyone participates in the discussion, possibly "the one who speaks the loudest bears the banner of the Tree".

Legate, you're a player after my own heart.

Originally Posted by thin

When I first read this thread through, my first impression was that this is the most paranoid first day ever. But probably I was just exaggerating...

Again, Deuling Wizards.



As to my accusers, (Manwe and SPM, and anyone else who I missed).

I never "jumped on" Glirdan. I was using him as an example of what not to do. Neither did I say that anyone quiet was a faithful. I've seen villages destroyed by quietness, and wolves come to easy victory because if it. It is a fact the woves, or cats or faithfuls, or penguins, or whatever else the great Mod God's happen to come up with, have a tendency to kill either the loudest or the quietest players. The loudest because a quiet village is easily overrun by bold wolves, and the quietest because it leaves no discernable trail for us to follow. So, be noisy, indeed, but more than that, put some SUBSTANCE into your posts. It's also true that the wolves divide their numbers during the day - some are noisy, some are quiet. They attack one of their own while ignoring the others. Quietness doesn't = wolf. Quietness doesn't even mean a bad player. But quietness does make it easier for the wolves to run the village, straight to the ground.

As I said, I've seen villages destroyed by their own quietnes. But I've never seen I noisy village go down for speaking, except when that speaking is all but hot air.

I'll be back in a moment with some analysis.

[Roa_Aoife]

Nogrod (Because I have to)

1st post – Thinks we have a good chance of winning, agrees with Mith about
the dangers of lynching a gifted, finds Lalaith’s posts odd, thinks we
should lynch the nice ones, doesn’t want to lynch Thin, Holby and Mith, says
it’s hard to jump on anyone just now.

2nd post – First impression: Mith- innocent, Lalaith- hasty but innocent,
Manwe- unknown, Kath- unkown, Glirdan- suspicious

(Why do people do this? I never understood.)

3rd post - Says he's not trusting anyone, banter with Roa

4th post - Worried that he's agreeing with Roa, thinks Glirdan is too detached, suggests looking at attitude, agrees with SPM about talking

(That would worry me, too, if it wasn't what we always agree on)

5th post - Says SPM is being hypocritical, and blowing things out of proportion, thus making SPM suspicious

(I can see his point about SPM. Infact some other things bothered me about him.)

I actually don't see anything here other than typical Nogrod. I don't believe he "jumped on" Glirdan at all, and at one point he even agreed with Kitanna that it would be beneficial to wait and see what Glirdan had to say. All the cases against him don't seem to hold much merit with that in mind.

So, his great accuser, Manwe:

1st post – immediately points to newbiness, and typical quietness, suspects
that everyone will feel odd, brings up double bluffing, throws vague
suspicion on Hookbill

(Ah, the good old "Newbie" defense.)

2nd post - thinks Nogrod and Roa are suspicious for being too harsh on the quiet, response to SPM's suspicions?, jumps on hookbill line from SPM

(For someone who accuses other of jumping onto easy targets, he seems mighty jumpy himself.)

3rd post - says the four faithfuls are Nogrod, Roa, Saucepan Man, and Kitanna, says Nogrod hasn't answered his questions yet, thinks this makes him guilty, says Roa and Nogrod are picking on Glirdan to draw suspicion from themselves

(A bold statement, but nothing to back it)

4th post - again, grabs onto Hookbill line from SPM

(SPM's clearly joking, but Manwe seems almost serious about this.)

5th post - says since there are four faithful, he names four suspects, doesn't think it's odd, calls back to remember other innocent who were lynched, asks Durelin to reconsider, says he would only vehemently deny being a faithful if he was one, says he may be wrong, but would wait until Nogrod answered his questions, cross posted, said Kitanna's suspicion of Glirdan makes her suspicious

(His defense here is full of holes and shady aspects. Firstly, spotting all four wolves on Day 1 is impossible, secondly, a good portion of the village wasn't even present at this point. It just screams of recklessness. Also, pointing to all the innocents who were lynched for being too suspicious looks designed to cause hesitation in everyone. Also, what question did he ask Nogrod that was vital? I've been keeping a running summary of everything written, and even I missed it.)

6th post - suggest that everything is baseless right now

(If everything is baseless, what are you blathering on about?)

7th post - Understands Kitanna now, says flying accusations are only natural, explains his suspcion as people who pounced apon Glirdan, except for SPM, who was just a baseless accusation to stir things up, but does suspect him on grasping onto his Hookbill idea

(Flying accusations never helped the village. At best, they confuse and focus our attention on a select few, blinding us to whatever else lays out there.)

8th post - Says throwing accusations about is nothing new, says he's just trying to get other's ideas flowing, Votes Nogrod

(How can it not be new for you if this is your first time playing? This screams cop-out to me.)

Conclusion: If he's not a Faithful, he's the Cobbler.

SPM next.

[Nogrod]

First of all I think a wise were-fatihful would avoid controversies espacially on Day1. Why to stand out aloud while sitting in the shadows is more than enough? So I do not think Manwë is a wolf. He plays too daringly to be one.

Secondly. Before you collectively decide that I'm a baddie-maniac after Glirdy trying to get him killed with any cost, just think of it a second. And maybe you should also look what I wrote about Glirdy

Originally Posted by Me

#12Glirdy looks somewhat normal but there is a feeling I get from his post... I don't know what. I know I myself disagree with voting the most "usual suspects" as it tends to turn bad for us, but still I can't help feeling that from those already posted I would say he's the most suspicious one. But that's a little to say and calls for reconsideration after some more posting from you all...

Originally Posted by Me

#19Glirdy seems to be too detached for a villager. Just casually making himself present but in an alienated way. It sounds bad to be sure.

Hope you have more to say later on Glirdy! I know it's early, but there are things to be observed other than "substance" also early in the game, like attitudes behind the words... the problem is that an unenchanted villager might go for it as you do.

So that's it. Not much in a way of "targeting him".

But what I am concerned is all those people who pick up ideas from others and start to carry that lended flag around ("X had good points about Y"). As we know the were-faithfuls need to fabricate their cases and so they are always somewhat superficial. What then better than lending an idea from a misguided innocent?

Okay. I'll reread the stuff before continuing.

[Holbytlass]

I think Mithalwen's vibe comment about sharing is rhetorical but does have merit in cautioning us to be careful. I quite recall the village where almost all specials had to reveal themselves because they were being lynched. Since she has not pursued this I think others are taking this beyond what its meant to be.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

Since she has not pursued this [statement about finding gifteds] I think others are taking this beyond what its meant to be.

She hasn't pursued it, because she hasn't been here. That statement is the only thing she has said, and so the only thing, thus far, to judge her upon.

It also didn't feel rhetorical to me.

[Mithalwen]

TGWBS ..I have been quiet becasue IU haven't been near a computer again til now... just off to read up on what I have missed.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Holby

I quite recall the village where almost all specials had to reveal themselves because they were being lynched.

I quite recall a village where the same happened, and we had so many known innocents running about it was near impossible for the wolves to hide. (And they didn't for very long.) Anyways:

SPM

1st post - banter with Mith, thinks discussing faithful behavior is dangerous, thinks analysis of words is the best course of action, request people to talk, mild jab at Manwe

2nd post - thinks the lack of roleplaying is nice, responds to Roa: the gifted tend to look very suspicious

3rd post - Thinks it's odd that Nogrod and Roa are "berating" the quiet.

(Here he clearly takes things out of proportion. Niether Nogrod nor myself "berated" anyone. We said the exact same thing that he said- talking good, quiet bad)

4th post - joking about Hookbill

5th post - Will be busy today, doesn't think he was being hypocritical, says Nogrod appeared angry that people had not spoken, says he never thought it made Nogrod look Faithful, but his reaction to the statement did, calls his own point reasonable vs Nogrod's unreasonable reaction, says Kath and Nogrod may be trying to lure us into a false sense of security, more joking about Hookbill, seems to exonerate Manwe for being new, Worried about the people who are voting for him, says Glirdan has been targeted by Nogrod, finds Holby's list a bit strange, thinks Nogrod and Rikae are the most suspicious

(Again, making Nogrod appear more agressive than he actually is. Nogrod never appeared angry over anything. Also, I note his little move there comparing his reasonableness to Nogrod's (implied) unreasonableness. Very clever. He also seems to be eager to form a bond with Manwe.)

Well, SPM and Manwe can't both be wolves. It'd be way to obvious, and SPM is a more subtle man than that. But SPM irks me in a most sinister way. He's too good at directing his wording to point one way, when he's actually meaning something else. I never trust him, to be sure, but I especially don't like his case against Nogrod. It's not like him to blow something up like that. Not when he's innocent, anyways.

[Garin]

Legate said:

or in worse case, he is a villager (who is not worth anything for the community, if I say it very nastily

I'm not comfortable with someone calling ordo villagers worthless. It offends my sense of community. It also could be Legate's way of saying, "I am not an ordinary." Everyone, wants to be viewed as an ordo on day one. Finally, the village still wins if only regular ol' villagers are left standing. On the first day I look for the slightest reasons to vote for a lynch and... I'm just not sure yet.

Also I didn't like Legate saying that I listed Roa as suspicious. I simply said Roa was acting feisty. Hardly a condemnation.

I tend to agree with Lommy and Sauce about Nogrod and Rikae being at the top of the suspicious. I'm not parroting them. I had come to that conclusion over night (Earlier with Nog) and just saw my suspicions mirrored by two veterans of these games. Two crafty veterans mind you.

Regardless, I need to vote as soon as possible. In about five or so minutes.

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, just remind everyone, The Might did say that he would have trouble being around toDay, and possibly on Day 2, so he may not make it today. Hopefully he'll make it by the end of Day 2, though, or he'll be removed.

[Mänwe]

I would just like to interject briefly in response to Roa's comments. I am not taking the banter about Hook seriously, I had always meant it as a joke. Though my accusation of him still stands. And I still want to see Nogrod lynched.

'I'll be back'

[Garin]

Nogrod, your level of participation and the riskiness in posting so much has saved you from my vote thus far TODAY.

Rikae made one of those infamous SAFE votes. Didn't start the voting, didn't cast the deciding vote, it was too early to have any real valid suspicions just hunches, it looked like a bandwagon was starting but not quite... ( A good place to hide your vote)

Of course, I could be accused of doing the same.

The only thing keeping me from voting for Mith is that Mith made the first post, I think. Such bravado for a Faithful.

I have got to vote now....
If I voted for Rikae it would be viewed as a safe vote. Just maybe R is acting more like an uninspired ordinary disenchanted by a boring role.

Nogrod would be a more dangerous vote and could get me in trouble. Plus if Nog is not a bad guy we would lose a valuable member of the village. No offense Rikae. However Nog would be one dangerous faithful.

Okay, a few more minutes....

++Nogrod

edit: corrected misspelling

[the guy who be short]

Garin, why exactly did you vote for Nogrod? I just searched through all your posts and found no reasoning behind the vote than "If Nogrod were a faithful, he would be dangerous."

[the guy who be short]

I'm unhappy with day one banter. Day ones almost always end in the lynching of an innocent for the most spurious evidence; thus far, I have seen nothing much condemning from anybody.

I should mention that there is a prophecy to be fulfilled. Kath is mean, and should be lynched. Well... give me a reason not to, Kathwin.

I will also say that our votes so far are for Manwe and Nogrod, who have both been loud. Other than them, suspicion seems to fall on those that are loud, simply because they have something to say. This can then be analysed and twisted, whether intentionally or not, in all sorts of ways. For this reason, I have always been more inclined to suspect the quiet, who seem to "fly under the radar".

And so I will mention with only mild suspicion (which is more than I have for anybody else) the quiet:
Holbytlass admits to being quiet.
Kath (prophecy!) hasn't said much yet.
Gil-galad has said nothing worth mentioning.
Glirdan has said little (and, on a side-note, said Adieu. Which God, eh? ) However, it interests me that among all the quiet people, people have jumped on Glirdan alone. I wonder why. I doubt it is Faithfuls, for they never seem to have coherent strategies for Day 1, wishing rather to let the ordos confuse themselves. So why have all you people jumped on Glirdan and not any of the others on this list? Roa, SpM, Durelin, this means you.
Lalaith and Mith, other than the early posts, have been very quiet.
Nothing from The Might.

I appreciate we have several hours of Daylight left, so I will not attack those who have said nothing. For all I know, they could come and say something valuable in a few hours. I am therefore most suspicious of those who have spoken without saying anything.

[Holbytlass]

It is quite the canundrum of DAY1's. Day one lynchee is usually a high poster voted for by those who wish to be helpful to the village and only rarely is a baddie caught. Quiet/nontalkers are rarely lynched as it's seen as bad form to lynch someone without giving them a chance to speak.

So at this point, all those who have been highly accused/voted for and those doing the major accusing I find innocent at this time.
namelyManwe Nogrod Lommy Durelin Rikae that's not to say that those who accused hadn't gotten a hit but we just don't know till the deed is done.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

wow there is a lot of people really confusing me. . .

People seem to be very jumpy and are reacting somewhat strongly to small things, normally I would be happy to see such actions as it is good for analyzing. This time however the people who do so are not someone I have played with before and therefor it might just be "paranoia" as Legate puts it.

I do not know what to think about Holby's post she does not say much, mostly it is just random comments, save for her thoughts on Mänwe and the votes he has gained. It just seems very neutral, but I am fearing that the main reason I look at this with suspicion is because not long ago I encountered a "Bad Holby"

Hookbill seems innocent to me and do not understand the fuzz there was made about his post.

[Kath]

I should mention that there is a prophecy to be fulfilled. Kath is mean, and should be lynched. Well... give me a reason not to, Kathwin.

And you shall have one! Go back to that thread, read the next post down and you shall find the following comment, typed by you:

Hehe, Kath, I'd never do that.

So my dear if you go against your word and vote for me on the basis of a prophecy you yourself negated, well, that wouldn't be very innocent looking now would it?

Ah so, what's been going on? Manwe seems to have got himself into quite a bit of bother. Right now I don't think it's anything suspicious. He's a newbie (right?) finding his own place in these games. I for one want to see how he behaves in later days. If it turns out that the four he named really are the Faithful's we may have another Valier on our hands! At any rate, I don't want to see him lynched at present.

Legate looks to be the self-appointed voice of reason. I'm all for making sure people don't take things too personally but with his mediating between Hookbill and Brinniel (something there was no need for) he seems to be trying to set himself up as the calm one. I don't know, I just don't like it.

Hookbill appears to be behaving normally to me. The accusations against him haven't actually been accusations in the sense that people think he's guilty (except possibly from Manwe who keeps repeating it) and he hasn't been overly defensive. His replies were amusing more than offended.

Durelin apparently flourishes without an occupation to fall back on! Perhaps we shouldn't allow her one is future games.

Got to go again. It's good that people have started to talk, we've had a comment from all but one player now is that right? Hopefully they'll have spoken by the time I get back and I'll have to whole village to have a quick look at.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Kath

So my dear if you go against your word and vote for me on the basis of a prophecy you yourself negated, well, that wouldn't be very innocent looking now would it?

Ah, but we are an island of treacherous Numenoreans! What are these values that you speak of - loyalty and integrity? Sounds mighty Faithful to me!

(I'd just like to make clear that the whole Kath-prophecy was a joke. My bone to pick with her was quietness, which she is overcoming.)

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Holby, I find it weird that you put me on that list... I mean, hardly anyone has accused me this far, and I don't think I've been accusing much either (I've just said that Rikae's a bit weird and one little comment of Nogrod's is odd)...

I merely stated a handful of names that are in the thick of things on this first day and are usually innocent. The pattern of vocals taking each other out sort of thing, as in you voting for Rikae for voting Manwe-all three of you are most likely innocent. All are vocal. But by all means I can put you on my forming suspicious list .

[The Saucepan Man]

Unfortunately, this day holds much for me on another plane of existence, so I’ll try to get my thoughts down on all that has transpired while I have been away in one go. Apologies, as always, for the length. My nickname, it seems, is well earned.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

This I would call hypochrisy indeed. You are yourself making an appearance of trying to get people speaking but nicely use the similar intentions of others as points against them...

I fail to see any hypocrisy here at all. While I am keen for people to speak as much as possible, I am content to give them more than a few hours to do so. You, on the other hand, appeared to be rather cheesed off that most of the village had not spoken in the early hours. And, as I said, I didn’t think it necessarily marked you out as a Faithful. It was, for me, simply a point to consider among the others. Now, however, I am not so sure. I find your reaction to what I would regard as a quite reasonable observation on my part quite interesting. And I note the little “dig”, questioning why I am apparently not living up to my (supposed) reputation as a “wise” player – which looks to me to be calculated to evince a reaction which you might use against me.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Now I see that some people are rather optimistic about this, and I'd like to be, too, but...that's a lot of us to just go at each other's throats, isn't it?

Indeed, I did note the haste with which some villagers sought to reassure the village of our prospects. Nogrod and Kath, I think, were the main culprits. It’s possible that one or both may be trying to lull us into a false sense of security. One should never be over-confident where Faithfuls are concerned.

Originally Posted by Mänwe

Sorry I missed this. How last did you see him?

If you mean in role-playing terms, I saw him as a disreputable and shady fellow. If you mean in terms of whether he might actually be a Faithful, he had not posted at the time of our exchange. He has now, but I see nothing overly suspicious in what he has said (other than his attempt to blackmail us by threatening slanderous stories in the press ).

Which brings me to the vexed question of Mänwe, who appears to have gathered some early suspicion. At first, I did find his posts rather strange and difficult to follow. But that may just be his style, so I am not prepared to condemn him for it without more. And, when one considers what he says more carefully, there is actually a fair degree of sense there. As for his bold early accusations, well it is a tried and tested tactic to put some names into the pot and see what reactions it provokes (let’s call it the “mormegil manoeuvre” ), so I am not too concerned about that.

What does concern me, however, is that there appear to have been a number who have championed him as a primary candidate for lynching, and I do wonder whether this might have resulted from a perception by one or more of the Faithful that his style might make him a possible Day 1 lynch. In this regard, I am rather suspicious of Legate, Kitanna and, in particular, Rikae, all of whom appear to have jumped on Rune’s tentative suspicion of Mänwe and Durelin’s early vote for him. Rikae’s vote, being as it was in her first post, was made with alarming alacrity (although I accept that it is retractable).

I am also slightly concerned at the way that Glirdan appears to have been targeted, by Nogrod in particular, without him actually having said very much. While his insubstantial first post annoyed me too, I don’t see it as any particular reason to suspect him, without more. I wonder whether he too may have been targeted as a potential easy Day 1 lynch. And, for the record TGWBS, I did not “jump” on Glirdan, but merely (like you) mentioned him, along with Kath, as one of those who had posted, but without much substance (Holbytlass and Gil-Galad had not posted by that stage). Nogrod, on the other hand, appears to have gone further and perceived sinister motives behind Glirdan’s inconsequential offering.

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

So at this point, all those who have been highly accused/voted for and those doing the major accusing I find innocent at this time.
namelyManwe Nogrod Lommy Durelin Rikae that's not to say that those who accused hadn't gotten a hit but we just don't know till the deed is done.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Holby, I find it weird that you put me on that list... I mean, hardly anyone has accused me this far, and I don't think I've been accusing much either (I've just said that Rikae's a bit weird and one little comment of Nogrod's is odd)...

I found Holby’s list rather strange too, as it did not really reflect fully my understanding of those who have been doing the most accusing and/or been under the most suspicion. Also, she does rather avoid drawing any conclusion with the statement: “but we just don't know till the deed is done”. How is that supposed to help us?

In conclusion, based on what has occurred so far, Nogrod and Rikae look the most suspicious to me. I still have in mind Mithalwen’s early comment about Faithful/Gifted behaviour, but much has happened since then, and I am inclined to view it for now (and without more) as a “first post” statement designed to get discussion underway.

[Gil-Galad]

i would like to jump on to holby's statement of being quiet, i more commonly don't say much worth mentioning till later in the week(if you will), so this early i'm not much help at all...


i feel that Manwe is gaining a bit too much suspicion... and i don't feel his wolfish tendacies, here follows my wolfish hunches, remember they are just hunches


Saucepanman
Hookbill
TGWBS
Rikae

remember, they are hunches but my hunches have wierd ways of working them out

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Originally Posted by Kath

Hookbill appears to be behaving normally to me... His replies were amusing more than offended.

Well, you've got to keep a light heart. I mean, it's not as if it's a matter of life and death... erm... wait... yes it is!

Originally Posted by The Lord Saucepan

I fail to see any hypocrisy here at all. While I am keen for people to speak as much as possible, I am content to give them more than a few hours to do so. You, on the other hand, appeared to be rather cheesed off that most of the village had not spoken in the early hours.

I agree, and don't forget to factor in Time difference. A lot of posts happened while I was asleep!

Originally Posted by Panman

other than his attempt to blackmail us by threatening slanderous stories in the press

Don't think I won't. *writes down 'Saucepan man in 'eats house' scandal'*

At the moment, I cannot see that anyone has given any real reason to be voted for the lynching. It is early days, mind you and I am a terrible judge of character. Manwe made some off handed comments which I will put down to, well, a momentary lack of tact or something. But then again, it could be engineered to look like that... or it may be a triple bluff and... I don't know... I'll get back to you on this...

[Mithalwen]

Roa likes lots of talk so she can examine it. There is nothing odd about that per se.

I am going to have a look at the various people who have taken the somewhat flippant sentence of my "stating the obvious" first post so seriously while (wilfully?) ignoring the serious one - since I know I was well intentioned I have to consider that they may not be:

"Given we don't want to force gifteds to out themselves to save their necks or to out those we think may be gifted in order to defend them, we should remember that that gifteds as well as wolves are liable to give out an "odd" vibe and that while in most villages only the wolves know about each other here the hunter and ranger know about each other. But if anyone has a watertight method for distinguishing gifted odd vibe from wolvish odd vibe please share!"

With nothing to comment on I just wanted to remind the village of the possible dynamics. I can't be certain whether someone seems odd becasue they are a wolf trying to fly under the radar or, say, a ranger who is trying to second guess the wolves as well as catch them but if someone seems "odd" then I do think it is worth reviewing them with all possibilities in mind before you start a bandwaggon. I am not saying don't go after those who you find suspicious.

I hope that is clear...

And if rhetorical means what I think it means - ie not expecting an answer - yes it was.......

[Nogrod]

I have been thinking about Mr. Spam and the more I do it the more confused I get.

It looks like he is grasping at every straw he can twist. And it looks pretty odd.

First he goes on saying that myself and Roa are berating the quieter ones when all I had said about the issue is practically this here:

#19Speak up people, otherwise we can't nail the baddies... and if it becomes to that, I will be the first to vote for those who do not talk without an acceptable explanation.

When he comes back 12 hours later he sticks with his original and obviously faulty idea that:

Originally Posted by SPaM

#58While I am keen for people to speak as much as possible, I am content to give them more than a few hours to do so. You, on the other hand, appeared to be rather cheesed off that most of the village had not spoken in the early hours.

Then he goes on adding that remarkable suspicion that Kath and I are up to no good as we had voiced some optimism because of the basic setting of the game.

Originally Posted by SPaM

It’s possible that one or both may be trying to lull us into a false sense of security.

I mean what is this? How does this relate to anything? How do people act in a state of "false security" and what follows from that? Sorry but I just don't get this. If on the other hand SPaM is only trying to come up with anything someone might bite, then it would be more understandable.

Anyhow he then makes the next points

What does concern me, however, is that there appear to have been a number who have championed him (Mänwe) as a primary candidate for lynching, and I do wonder whether this might have resulted from a perception by one or more of the Faithful that his style might make him a possible Day 1 lynch.
---------------
I wonder whether he (Glirdy) too may have been targeted as a potential easy Day 1 lynch.

So long as the lynch is not bent towards one of them it's pretty much the same to the were-faithfuls who is lynched. Why risk making an open campaign? But only if there is something like a big fish to be lynched.

And then there was this stuff about me targeting Glirdy especially which I think I already showed was nonsense.

So what to make of this? Is he just in a hurry and careless and just forgets what has actually been said? But he manages to remember things wrongly always towards the same direction...

If there ever was anyone trying to frame someone else, this might meet the criteria?

EDIT: X'd with a host of posts.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Roa

3rd post - Thinks it's odd that Nogrod and Roa are "berating" the quiet.

(Here he clearly takes things out of proportion. Niether Nogrod nor myself "berated" anyone. We said the exact same thing that he said- talking good, quiet bad)

OK. For the second time today, I was not “taking things out of proportion” when I made this comment. I was merely noting that it seemed rather odd to be criticising people for not having posted yet when we were only just over three hours into the game (and in the middle of the night, for some people). The points that I had in mind in particular in making this statement were the following:

Originally Posted by Roa

There's always something to comment on. So get to commenting people.

Seriously, it's Day 1, everyone's alive, where are they?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It's almost downright insulting that I'm the number one poster at this point with just a few posts.

Speak up people, otherwise we can't nail the baddies... and if it becomes to that, I will be the first to vote for those who do not talk without an acceptable explanation.

I would probably have thought little more of it, but for the reaction my comment seems to have garnered, which is where the disproportionate reaction lies, to my mind.

Originally Posted by Roa

I never "jumped on" Glirdan. I was using him as an example of what not to do.

I never said that you did. Indeed, I don’t think that I accused anyone of “jumping” on Glirdan. Nogrod’s early statements concerning Glirdan’s (only) post did, however, arouse my suspicions. He repeated them above, but I shall set them out here for ease of reference:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Glirdy looks somewhat normal but there is a feeling I get from his post... I don't know what. I know I myself disagree with voting the most "usual suspects" as it tends to turn bad for us, but still I can't help feeling that from those already posted I would say he's the most suspicious one. But that's a little to say and calls for reconsideration after some more posting from you all...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Glirdy seems to be too detached for a villager. Just casually making himself present but in an alienated way. It sounds bad to be sure.

Hope you have more to say later on Glirdy! I know it's early, but there are things to be observed other than "substance" also early in the game, like attitudes behind the words... the problem is that an unenchanted villager might go for it as you do.

Glirdan’s first post is nothing more than an “I’m here, but have nothing much to say”. Now, while this sort of post does annoy me, I am not inclined to view it as sinister, taken alone. Nogrod, however, referred to him as “the most suspicious one” (at that, admittedly early, stage) and categorised it as “bad to be sure”. Yes, he said he wanted to hear more from Glirdy. But, if Glirdan was identified as a possible Day 1 target by the Faithfuls, then this was an appropriate time, from their perspective, to start sowing the seeds of doubt in him.

Originally Posted by Roa

But SPM irks me in a most sinister way. He's too good at directing his wording to point one way, when he's actually meaning something else. I never trust him, to be sure, but I especially don't like his case against Nogrod.

Trust is a difficult thing to come by in this game, so I would not expect you to trust me. But, I should be grateful if you would explain your reasoning further. I have said nothing other than that which I intended to say, and mean. My “case” against Nogrod, which actually amounts to finding him one of the two most suspicious villagers at this stage, is based upon the various points identified in my previous post which, while seemingly innocuous when taken individually, are sufficient to arouse my suspicions when taken together.

I hope that clarifies.

Your “case” against Manwe, already an early contender for possible lynching, in turn troubles me, Roa. However, I still find Rikae, with her hasty vote for him, the most suspicious among those agitating against him, so my main suspicions remain with her and Nogrod. And I cannot believe that both you and Nogrod are Faithfuls. Melkor help us if you are.

I am not sure whether I will be around for much longer, so must vote soon. I will review to see whether there are any other points worth considering before doing so.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

OK. For the second time today, I was not “taking things out of proportion” when I made this comment. I was merely noting that it seemed rather odd to be criticising people for not having posted yet when we were only just over three hours into the game (and in the middle of the night, for some people). The points that I had in mind in particular in making this statement were the following.

You had the unfortunate responsibility of being the Mirth Mod when the ugly incident went down about playing styles, and niceness, and respect, etc, so you know how Nogrod and I are when we are "berating" anyone. Not only that, but you had time to comment on these before you did so, and yet you waited until Manwe made his case. Convenient, because if Nogrod is lynched and found innocent, the first perspon everyone will look to is Manwe, not you.

I never said that you did. Indeed, I don’t think that I accused anyone of “jumping” on Glirdan. Nogrod’s early statements concerning Glirdan’s (only) post did, however, arouse my suspicions. He repeated them above, but I shall set them out here for ease of reference:

I was responding to Manwe when I said that. You know as well as I do that Nogrod's "case" (if it cam be called that) against Glirdan is standard for early in the Day, not having much to go on, and throwing things out there to be discussed. In fact, Manwe did the very same thing, albeit in a far bolder and tactless manner. You find those who jumped on Manwe for such behavior suspicious. Is it so surprising that I do the same?

Glirdan’s first post is nothing more than an “I’m here, but have nothing much to say”. Now, while this sort of post does annoy me, I am not inclined to view it as sinister, taken alone. Nogrod, however, referred to him as “the most suspicious one” (at that, admittedly early, stage) and categorised it as “bad to be sure”. Yes, he said he wanted to hear more from Glirdy. But, if Glirdan was identified as a possible Day 1 target by the Faithfuls, then this was an appropriate time, from their perspective, to start sowing the seeds of doubt in him. (Emphais mine)

That's a big IF. Yes, early targeting is a tactic, but in order to see Nogrod's posts as such, you'd have to pre-assume him guilty. If he's innocent, it makes sense as an attempt to look at what was available and make a statement about it.

Trust is a difficult thing to come by in this game, so I would not expect you to trust me. But, I should be grateful if you would explain your reasoning further. I have said nothing other than that which I intended to say, and mean. My “case” against Nogrod, which actually amounts to finding him one of the two most suspicious villagers at this stage, is based upon the various points identified in my previous post which, while seemingly innocuous when taken individually, are sufficient to arouse my suspicions when taken together.

Of course you say what you intend- you're subtle and clever with words. (Lawyer :P ) That's why I look for subtleties (such as making Nogrod seem unreasonable, or as though he is behaving in a manner not typical to him.)

I hope that clarifies.

It does, but not what you intended to clarify.

Your “case” against Manwe, already an early contender for possible lynching, in turn troubles me, Roa.

No explanation as to why? Such a shame, since expect the same from evryone else. (Except Manwe, whose case you've latched onto and are attempting to bolster.)

However, I still find Rikae, with her hasty vote for him, the most suspicious among those agitating against him, so my main suspicions remain with her and Nogrod. And I cannot believe that both you and Nogrod are Faithfuls. Melkor help us if you are.

How convenient that you have a fall back lynchee. This way you can back out and vote for either of them to avoid the suspicion of lynching an innocent.

EDIT: X'd with everyone since SPM's last post.

[Durelin]

Typically, the two "loudest" people in the village, namely Nogrod and SPaM are getting some serious looking at. (And are going at each other. Ah, if Boro was in the mix there'd be five pages already.) I don't like this "lynch them, because if they are a Faithful, they're going to be dangerous. Well, if they aren't, could they not be "dangerous" to the Faithful in turn?

I'm not saying ignore them - that would be purely foolish - but we've been here before, people. Day 1 or 2, and we're already thinking "agh, so and so is here and alive?!" People say SPM is grasping, people say Nogrod is...wait, what exactly is everyone's point? That he's being accusatory? Well, what else can ya do? Any general theories are pretty much a waste of time. It's all about reactions.

And I find Manwe's reaction rather interesting. He still doesn't feel right to me, but I think a Faithful would be a little more honey-tongued than he is.

Rikae's jumping in and voting doesn't really make me suspicious of her, but the fact that she chose Manwe in succession with my vote, to bring him ahead in votes already is a little odd. It might seem crazy to be suspicious of people who agree with you, but...well, maybe you have a point there...

Garin - I apologize. I wasn't sure whether you had played before or not, but even if you had, I still thought a number of people in this game probably have never played with you before (including myself).

But now I find you pretty darn odd looking. You would have seemed more innocent to me had you stuck with your Nogrod vote, but the way you back off as if to avoid confrontation, and go with someone who's been remarked on quite a bit (and for the nice, simple reasoning of a quick vote)...looks like your trying to find an easy way out.

Well, really all I know is that it's quite funny that Kath seems pleased that I got down to business in my very first post, while Lommy finds it suspicious. You can't win.

[Brinniel]

My, my...

I certainly wish I had more time to mull over this, but I'm afraid I must leave shortly, therfore I must cast my vote now. I admit, I've had a name in mind for the last hour, yet I do find Garin's recent behaviour rather odd...to suddenly change votes when under pressure. I won't deny, for a moment I reconsidered my selection.

Yet, I do not change my mind so quickly and must go with my first instinct. She may end up being the popular choice, but I don't really care because I'm just going with my gut on this one. She only posted once, and within that post, made a hasty vote with little reason to back it up...so that is why I must vote for:

++Rikae

This will most likely be my last post for the first day, so I shall take my leave...

EDIT: X-ed with SpM and Durelin...

[Nogrod]

Okay... That was a nice episode!

I just can't find sense in what Garin just did, be he an innocent or a werecreature. It looks quite incomprehensible whatever way I try to look at it.

If he is a were-faithful he must be the jumpiest one I've ever seen... If he is an innocent he is the most confused. And still earlier in the day he seemed to be perfectly sensible.

Why did he wish to jump on me out of the blue as he clearly had no points against me? And why did he have to cover it up to that confusing theorizing? Well, there was already Mänwe's vote and SPaM's twisted interpretations. Was he hoping to put the ball rolling but when confronted withdrew because he realised how bad he would look toMorrow if I would have been lynched? A werecreature might be that jumpy. At least as he seemed to have been in a hurry (RL) and had to make a rushed decision...

I need to think again.

EDIT: X'd from SPaM on...

[Mithalwen]

I remember Garin being most perplexing the last time we played ...nothing has changed... that was very peculiar ....

[Rikae]

Well, I've been sleeping - and then I've been in school. What can I say? I voted early because (as I said on the admin thread before the game started, I believe), I wasn't sure if I would make it back in time to vote again, plus we have retractable votes. Manwe looked the most suspicious at that point.

In regard to the rest of the day's posts, I have just one thing I'd like to mention:

Originally Posted by Legate

I think I now understand how important is that all people post, because otherwise there is nothing to learn. And who sits and says nothing, is likely a wolf (err, Faithful) - or in worse case, he is a villager (who is not worth anything for the community, if I say it very nastily).

No, Legate. In the worst case, he is a gifted. Surely you know that...

I really don't have anything else to say at the moment, although I will be around, and may well change my vote - although it doesn't look as if it will matter. Manwe, as I said, seemed like the only lead at the time, but that means little, so early. In fact, it does seem that the most suspicious person on day one usually turns out to be innocent. I'm watching everyone closely... but I think I'll avoid naming other suspects just yet. As someone once said I'll wait for them to incriminate themselves further...

[Nogrod]

I'm a bit troubled by SPaM. But probably not enough to vote for him toDay. He would make a fine were-faithful and a darn good cobbler (I remember that one still... ) but lynching him with no better points than what I have now I find a bit too risky. If he's innocent he surely is an asset to us all.

Garin is another one I suspect somewhat. But there's something rotten in that whole affair I just can't pin down.

Rikae's vote-post did raise my eyebrows too and I would be very glad to hear something from her before the Day ends.

But as SPaM reminded me about my post last night (RL) I might also go for someone who has not contributed as the time comes. A contributing villager I think is much more fun to play with than a non-poster.

Happily there's time still.

[Kitanna]

I've only had a chance to skim and so far the thing that has really caught my attention is Rikae's vote. I'm going to read through the posts I've missed and I will hopefully get through them all before I have to return to class.

[Kitanna]

Looking at Rikae's vote and reason for voting for Manwe, I can see her logic. The thing that gets me is how close her vote is to Durelin's vote for Manwe. I'm not sure what to think of how Rikae voted. I hope she comes on before Day ends, though it seems unlikely since her vote was cast so early.

I'm glad to see Manwe addressed my questions and concerns and I understand his reasoning behind the four he picked in earlier posts (Nogrod, Roa, SpM, and myself). I feel somewhat better about Manwe when he's not dancing around a topic and avoiding answering questions.

I find this rather interesting, Glirdan's first post seemed very Glirdan to me. It was short and was of no use to anyone, but Nogrod jumped on it as alienated and distant from the village, sort of a forced response. Yet Gil-Galad's first post was much the same as Glirdan's, unhelpful and short, yet no one jumped on him as Glirdan was jumped on.

I'm wondering about this talk of Manwe being, ruthless (started by Legate I believe). I'm not sure if "harsh" is how I'd label him.

But what raises my eyebrow more is Garin's vote for Nogrod. Then a few posts later he switches to Rikae. First he voted for someone who was considered suspcious, but had not yet gained any votes, then he switches to someone who already has a vote and votes for her in a "safe vote" way. A safe vote being what he criticized her for in the first place.

Argh, I must run off to class and need to vote now. While Rikae's vote worries me (mainly due to the closeness of it to Durelin's) I am more uncomfortable with Garin and his vote.

++ Garin

His vote for Nogrod seemed odd. He had a case going against Rikae, but decided not to vote for her because it could be viewed as a safe vote. I feel that the vote for Nogrod could be seen as an equally safe vote. However a few posts later he changes his mind and switches the vote to Rikae. I'm confused by his actions and am somewhat alarmed by them.

Edit: cross-posted with Rikae, TGWBS, Rune, and Roa

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Hmmm I am at loss about what to do. . .

so far my thoughts are mostly directed at 5 people

Garin - Goes with out saying. . .it was very odd and I cannot figure out what that means.
Mänwe - Had some weird reasoning going or at least was just hard to understand. . .
Brinniel - Her reaction to Hookbill was quite odd
Legate - Legate's involvment in the Hookbill affair seemed somewhat fake. . .like he was trying very hard to become some sort of mediator
Holby - As I said before her quietness revoked bad memories, but I am feeling more easy about her now.

I will probably vote for one of these soon

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Rikae

What can I say? I voted early because (as I said on the admin thread before the game started, I believe), I wasn't sure if I would make it back in time to vote again

I could not find this on the admin thread.

As it is, neither Rikae nor Mithalwen has convinced me of their innocence. The evidence against them seems greater than the evidence pointing to their innocence.

However, Garin is the person who stands out most today after his voting. What on Arda was that? First he voted with no justification, then he backed down under pressure. If he is not a Faithful, he must be Tar-Miriel (after a quick sex-change, of course). The sooner we rid ourselves of him the better.

++GARIN

This is my last post today. Farewell.

[Rikae]

Durelin -Seems to be engaging with all the issues that are brought up and sincerely trying to be helpful. Feels innocent.
Glirdan – Entirely confusing and little content. Can't get any impression of him at all – might be a good idea to eliminate him as an “unknown quantity” soon.

Gil-Galad – Basically, same assessment as Glirdan.
Kath – Advised me not to start conversations as a wolf in the last game – something she's been doing now. She seems not to be trying quite as hard, or playing as carefully, as she does when a wolf – but it's subtle enough I doubt it's a deliberate trick.
Kitanna – Safe – claims speechlessness, not really with much apparent reason – points out Glirdan's Glirdanishness. Seems very to be flying under the radar.
Lalaith – First post seems relaxed, in an innocentish way, and pointing out the foolishness of drawing attention to gifteds also strikes me as sincere.
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mänwe – Attention drawing in a way that, in retrospect, seems like the sort of innocent that looks suspcious on a day one. However, the comment about worthless villagers disturbs me...but he kind of reminds me of an innocent Morm.
Mithalwen – Posting first tends to look innocent – as I'm sure “Faithfulwen” would be aware.

Initially pointing out that gifteds can look suspicious could easily be an attempt to make suspicious looking faithfuls seem like possible gifteds, plus, she mentions the cobbler prominently on a separate line – a technique I've used myself, as a wolf, to get the cobbler's attention.
Rune Son of Bjarne – Always seems the same to me, guilty or innocent. Isn't particularly standing out.
The Saucepan Man – Starts off telling everyone to speak, stating simple, safe, obvious things. Seems keen to lynch Roa, which is NOT in the village's interests, as I said.






Suspicious:

Mithalwen

TSM

Kitanna




Moderate:

Glirdan

Manwe

Rune

Gil







Not suspicious:

Kath

Lalaith

Duralin




I have to go - I'll look at the rest when I get back.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mithalwen – Posting first tends to look innocent – as I'm sure “Faithfulwen” would be aware.

.

LOL I find quite the reverse - in my first games the first posters turned out to be wolves which was the reason I nearly just went home to bed on Sunday night. However because I believe you should participate as much as you can and I knew I would be limited, I started things off. If I were a wolf I would have kept quiet and not drawn attention to myself . However as an ordo, I believe the more discussion the better. I generated discussion far more than by some "in char RPG"psot customary for early posts that may be amusing but are seldom enlightening......

And I am not a wolf so please do not play around with my name. I really find it annoying when people do that....