WW XXIX Dor-en-Gaur

[Anguirel]

Votes at the time of writing:

Boro 3
Rune 1
Gil 2
Durelin 2
Ang 1
Naria 1
Mac 1
Volo 2

3 hours 'till the deadline...

[Volo]

Rune I trust. He hasn't said too much useful, but my guts tell me not to suspect him too much. The only thing that I find really strange is this

+/+Macalaure

Edit: Cross posted with Mac

Rune should have had enough time to explain this one better, as Mac just posted a major post at the same time as Rune voted for him.

I think this is worth noticing!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Though my head doubts this wisdom, there is an invisible rope keeping me from voting Volo. What can it be?

Casually states "I feel like I'm going down already today, pity."

He's almost daring us to vote for him.

The other serious contender for me out of those with votes is Macalaure.

[Volo]

Rikae is so nice that I no way suspect her. Her vote also makes perfect sense, who wouldn't want to vote the scary big Anguirel. No wolvery noticed what so ever...


X:d with mormegil

[Mithalwen]

Of course there is one valid reason for being deliberately suicidal but I think it is a bit early..... and if Volo were the Hunter (if we have a hunter ...) then it would be a bit early to show his hand .. but if that were the case I should be the last to judge a gifted for panicking.....

It could just be trying to make us think "would a wolf be so reckless?" Well yes they might - Roa' words on Gil might be as easily applied here...

[Boromir88]

Mith, if Volo was in anyway gifted I can't see why a gifted would act this way. Therefor he's either a suicidal wolf that sees his fate and is simply stirring a pot of confusion. Or he's an ordinary that is having fun and wants to die. Either way, it looks like he wants to die and I'll be more than happy to oblige with that wish.

[Mithalwen]

Well I didn't say it was likely behaviour but I thought that what might be making Eomer doubt, and only the fact that being gifted made me more unhinged than usual stopped me ruling it out entirely ....

[Mithalwen]

Exactly ...... but you aren't making me any more inclined not to vote for you on the belief you are about to become the first "Fenris Wolf and Bar"....

[Boromir88]

Volo's I really can't pinpoint Volo's actions as a wolf or an innocent, they seem more cobbleresque...and as Nogrod hinted there is one amongst the village who doesn't know who the wolves are, yet is still on their side and wins along with them. I wonder...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

++VOLO

Oh no, I certainly do not think he's gifted. I was merely saying that there's some doubt in this course of action. Still I'd rather vote him and tie him with Boromir88 than any of the other immediate options open to me.

Currently thinking the wolves are Volo, Firefoot and Thinlómien. And now I must go to tend to my precious bees.

[Volo]

Ok, Mith, whatever. I am sorry that I have been more on the way then of help, but I like to talk when I want and now I want to talk, so suspect me if you feel like it.

But about Boromir (uh, those short analysis' are maybe a complete waste of time, but a few points come up now and then):
It is pretty probable that Boromir and Celuien are wolves! Boromir suspects her, but not too seriously and without "points".
Otherwise Boromir does not feel wolvish, except for one post.
Now he says that he is easy to predict, if it really is so, then Boromir plays badly! This is a great way to feel innocent and clever from a wolf.

So I would like to know if it's easy to predict him. ??


EDIT: X:d with #114 ->
Eomer, I wish to strangle you...

[Volo]

No way would the Hunter know whom to kill yet! That's totally insane. If you, Mith, really want to know how I tend to act then read my earlier games, there aren't many posts to read.
I'm saying that you can't know what I am by thinking how recless/strange/wierd/cryptic I act. My fenrisification was the only time people were right with my role.


X:d with Boromir. NO, I do not want to die in this game. So I do prefer that you don't kill me.

[Macalaure]

First, a random thought about trust and mistrust.
Of course, you can't trust anyone (unless a proven seer confirmes them innocent). You simply can't. We've all been in situations (I think) where we were absolutely sure someone was innocent and then woke up with a dagger in our back. Then again, you simply cannot mistrust 17 people at a time. You go insane.
You have to trust a portion of the village, take up their points, consider them honest (even if they're contrary to your own. In fact, especially then) and make up your own mind then. I think the key is to question your trust frequently and don't set it in stone.


Current state of the trust:

People I trust (at the moment)
me
Rikae
Boromir
Roa

People I trust somewhat
mormegil (no reason for mistrust)
Anguirel (fishy, but he's always fishy)
Volo (I sense a trend towards him. Slowly there! He said a lot that naturally makes everyone suspicious. I maintain that he's genuine and innocent)
Firefoot
Mithalwen

People who seem weird
Lommy (don't know what to do with her)
Gil (looks pretty much like Gil. I always suspect him in a way)
Farael

People I have no feeling about
Naria (hasn't posted)
Durelin (hasn't posted sustantially)

People I suspect
Lalwende (little more than a hunch)
Rune (too uncontroversial in the beginning. Better lately)
Celuien (too uncontroversial. Only talked about the roles and defended people. Said she feels good about everyone so far and votes someone who hasn't posted. But then, Celuien is nice whatever her role)
Eomer (I have no problem with people suspecting me (see Rune), but I like to hear their reasons)


We have retrackies, so I'm putting another name into the urn, just to see what happens:

++Celuien

[Anguirel]

Volo, this is a thick question, but are you being sarcastic about Rikae? Because if you are, I kind of see where you're coming from.

I still have the option to retract and may yet use it. Let's see how the situation develops. I'm not entirely comfortable with the impetuous Volo's death, but less uncomfortable with it than with most other outcomes.

[mormegil]

--Rune

++Volo

I know that this is horrible but I really haven't caught up yet and the deadline is near enough and work busy enough that there is no way I can. I do trust Eomer enough that I'll follow along with his vote. Again don't expect this to happen again

[Macalaure]

I'm not comfortable with a race between Boro and Volo. I'm sorry to do this, since I'm very far from being convinced of his guilt. But I'm more suspicious of him than of the two.

--Celuien

++Gil-Galad


mormegil -> Rune (Rune 1)
Gil-Galad -> Boro (Rune 1, Boro 1)
Roa_Aoife -> Gil (Rune 1, Boro 1, Gil 1)
Lommy -> Durelin (Rune 1, Boro 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1)
Firefoot -> Boro (Boro 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1)
Rikae -> Anguirel (Boro 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1, Ang 1)
Kath -> Boromir88 (Boro 3, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1, Ang 1)
Celuien -> Naria (Boro 3, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1, Ang 1, Naria 1)
Farael -> Lommy (Boro 3, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1, Ang 1, naria 1, Lommy 1)
Volo -> Durelin (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Lommy1)
Rune -> Mac (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Ang 1, Mac 1, Naria 1, Lommy 1)
Anguirel -> Volo (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Lommy 1, Mac 1, Volo1)
Farael -> Volo (-Lommy) (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Volo 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1)
Lalwende -> Gil (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Volo 2, Gil 2, Rune 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1)
Mac -> Celuien (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Volo 2, Gil 2, Rune 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1, Celu 1)
Eomer -> Volo (Boro 3, Volo 3, Durelin 2, Gil 2, Rune 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1, Celu 1)
morm -> Volo (-Rune) (Volo 4, Boro 3, Durelin 2, Gil 2, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1, Celu 1)
Volo -> Boro (-Durelin) (Volo 4, Boro 4, Gil 2, Durelin 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1, Celu 1)
Mac -> Gil (-Celuien) (Volo 4, Boro 4, Gil 3, Durelin 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1)

[Mithalwen]

I really don't want Boro to go and would be prepared to hang fire on Volo in favour of Gil to ensure this ..what do you think Ang?

[Anguirel]

I'm not sure. I don't think I want to change my vote to Gil. I can't help envisaging the stupendous possibility that Macalaure is moving to the aid of his lupine friend Volo, and rather want to test that theory out...are you willing to risk voting Volo?

[Mithalwen]

mormegil -> Rune (Rune 1)
Gil-Galad -> Boro (Rune 1, Boro 1)
Roa_Aoife -> Gil (Rune 1, Boro 1, Gil 1)
Lommy -> Durelin (Rune 1, Boro 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1)
Firefoot -> Boro (Boro 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1)
Rikae -> Anguirel (Boro 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1, Ang 1)
Kath -> Boromir88 (Boro 3, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1, Ang 1)
Celuien -> Naria (Boro 3, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1, Ang 1, Naria 1)
Farael -> Lommy (Boro 3, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1, Ang 1, naria 1, Lommy 1)
Volo -> Durelin (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Lommy1)
Rune -> Mac (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Ang 1, Mac 1, Naria 1, Lommy 1)
Anguirel -> Volo (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Lommy 1, Mac 1, Volo1)
Farael -> Volo (-Lommy) (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Volo 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1)
Lalwende -> Gil (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Volo 2, Gil 2, Rune 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1)
Mac -> Celuien (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Volo 2, Gil 2, Rune 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1, Celu 1)
Eomer -> Volo (Boro 3, Volo 3, Durelin 2, Gil 2, Rune 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1, Celu 1)
morm -> Volo (-Rune) (Volo 4, Boro 3, Durelin 2, Gil 2, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1, Celu 1)
Volo -> Boro (-Durelin) (Volo 4, Boro 4, Gil 2, Durelin 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1, Celu 1)
Mac -> Gil (-Celuien) (Volo 4, Boro 4, Gil 3, Durelin 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1)[/QUOTE]

Celuien Volo (-Naria) (Volo 5, Boro 4, Gil 3, Durelin 1, Ang 1, , Mac 1)


Updated Mac's list highlighting those who have changed votes and are therefore fixed. It was just one .. and first to total dies in event of a tie remember...

[Mithalwen]

OK

++Volo

[Celuien]

++VOLO

For a gut feeling of weirdness.

[Celuien]

I crossed with everything since my retraction post (typing on a PDA screen is hard). That's all.

[Boromir88]

I can't wait around for a decision any longer. I won't be back before the end. Let's hope we got ourselves one here, or perhaps somebody else that could benefit the wolves.

++Volo

[Lalwendë]

mormegil -> Rune (Rune 1)
Gil-Galad -> Boro (Rune 1, Boro 1)
Roa_Aoife -> Gil (Rune 1, Boro 1, Gil 1)
Lommy -> Durelin (Rune 1, Boro 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1)
Firefoot -> Boro (Boro 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1)
Rikae -> Anguirel (Boro 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1, Ang 1)
Kath -> Boromir88 (Boro 3, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1, Ang 1)
Celuien -> Naria (Boro 3, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1, Ang 1, Naria 1)
Farael -> Lommy (Boro 3, Rune 1, Gil 1, Durelin 1, Ang 1, naria 1, Lommy 1)
Volo -> Durelin (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Lommy1)
Rune -> Mac (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Ang 1, Mac 1, Naria 1, Lommy 1)
Anguirel -> Volo (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Lommy 1, Mac 1, Volo1)
Farael -> Volo (-Lommy) (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Volo 2, Rune 1, Gil 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1)
Lalwende -> Gil (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Volo 2, Gil 2, Rune 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1)
Mac -> Celuien (Boro 3, Durelin 2, Volo 2, Gil 2, Rune 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1, Celu 1)
Eomer -> Volo (Boro 3, Volo 3, Durelin 2, Gil 2, Rune 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1, Celu 1)
morm -> Volo (-Rune) (Volo 4, Boro 3, Durelin 2, Gil 2, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1, Celu 1)
Volo -> Boro (-Durelin) (Volo 4, Boro 4, Gil 2, Durelin 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1, Celu 1)
Mac -> Gil (-Celuien) (Volo 4, Boro 4, Gil 3, Durelin 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1)
Celuien -> Volo (Volo 5, Boro 4, Gil 3, Durelin 1, Ang 1, Naria 1, Mac 1)

I think it's now all down to the tactical voting?

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Volo, this is a thick question, but are you being sarcastic about Rikae? Because if you are, I kind of see where you're coming from.

No, I don't feel sarcastic about Rikae. I don't think that she would be such a great wolf to play so well.


EDIT: X:d with mormegil. Still two hours. Be a man and don't act safe!

[Firefoot]

Gil - Go here.

I am now inclined to think that Gil is probably not a wolf, as Boro's claim would surely have come up in their discussions, so Gil would have known before now if he was a wolf. I suppose it could be a bluff - but that almost seems too subtle for Gil, and his post doesn't at all read like one.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Gil - Go here.

I am now inclined to think that Gil is probably not a wolf, as Boro's claim would surely have come up in their discussions, so Gil would have known before now if he was a wolf. I suppose it could be a bluff - but that almost seems too subtle for Gil, and his post doesn't at all read like one.

well since how i like to look behind the box... how do we know that was not boromir bluffing to take any notion of lynching him off? makes you think...


but i will not vote for boromir mainly for the fear of him indeed being a gifted

[Boromir88]

Even so, he could be an ordo setting a wolf-trap, rather than a wolf or cobbler.

No I actually am the hunter, if you don't want to believe me that's your own fault.

[Mithalwen]

Sorry I did misinterpret the narrative - I thought the villagers being together as the Gaur attacked was a hint at Shirriffs but now I see it was part of them not getting "a full strenth dose"... have't picked up on this hint of a cobbler though ... take pity on a poor serving wench and point me in the right direction?

[Volo]

Sooo, I'm low on life-time. And computer-time.

About Roa I can't say much, just that keeping such a summary does make her scary. I hope she's on our side.
She hasn't talked much sense and even her vote seems fake.

Argh... This is it, I have to go.

--Durelin
++Boromir

He is suspicious and I would really like to save myself.

[Boromir88]

have't picked up on this hint of a cobbler though ...

I think I confused the town charter chatter with the narration. Though I would not doubt it if one of the secret roles is a help to the wolves.

[Anguirel]

The chances of a two-horse race are now practically a hundred percent, and I'm becoming disillusioned with the idea of a wolf-Volo - but I suspect Boro very little.

Ho hum. I suppose if Eomer and I defected to Macalaure that might be helpful...what say you, beekeeper? How sure are you about our chosen man?

[Anguirel]

Blast, the beekeeper is off beekeeping. Ah well. Stiff upper lip, Volo old chap...always look on the bright side of death...

[Mithalwen]

Roa did talk sense - and she always takes a forensic approach to the game - unfortunately her assessments can be plausible regardless of her role...

I (and I am sure most of us) would never rule out Roa as a wolf without a seer's confirmation .. which we can't hope for here. But I am not buying into "Roa is a wolf because she summarizes and doesn't make sense" cos she always summarizes and unless she gets really riled up she makes sense.