Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

If we lynch a cobbler, we will probably have two innocents, a cobbler and a wolf tomorrow. With double lynchings, this is a fair chance.

Fair chance for what?

Two ordos, a cobbler and a wolf:

We get the wolf, we win.
We get an ordo, the wolf may kill an ordo or the cobbler at night, but even if he gets the cobbler, only an ordo and the wolf are left the morning after
We get the cobbler, the wolf kills an ordo at night, same scenario.

Hey, wait... Macalure said that with a double-lynch there is a fair chance but.... how do you organize a double-lynch when half of the players are baddies?

This makes no sense, the cobbler will either vote for whoever the wolf votes, or he will vote to protect the wolf at the last minute. The only chance we have is that, by luck, both ordos vote for the wolf... but how likely is that?

No, to organize a double-lynch you need to have the cooperation of at least half plus one of the players, to be able to counter-act the best efforts of the baddies. If the village is divided, half and half, then a double lynch is impossible.

Are you trying to lead us astray, Mr. Macalure?