Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Don't worry, I'm keeping an open mind. I'm carefully considering your points, but I keep on not seeing them. I'm increasingly convinced that the wolf likes to remain in the dark by lynching those who don't leave trails. I think I did leave a couple of those.

You should wash your glasses if you are wearing ones...

But what of Celuien pulling the effort of trying to explain the death of Kitanna in just those terms? We now know she was a wolf and was trying to make us think the way that suited the villains (remember, she was in no danger when she said so)! I'm not sure if your insistence on this calls more of a wolf or an innocent... I myself tended to think the kills as a "no tracks left behind" ones untill I counted together Celuien's post and her wolvery...

And your trails left behind? I already wondered at you mentioning leaving them yesterDance (as I got home RL and read through what had happened). What trails did you leave or were you just posturing as one who was leaving them? You basically said that most people were innocentish or could be anything! I wouldn't call that leaving a trail...

But yes. If you're innocent, I would really like to have you among us. I'll try to look at my Celuien summary first.

[mormegil]

Mac, care to explain why I would vote for Celuien when I wouldn't be here if I were either her fellow wolf or a cobbler? It's not that desparate yet to do that plus being that there is only two wolves I wouldn't do that until a little later...you are grasping at straws here Mac. I am willing to sacrifice my life if it is agreed that Mac will go with me. If Mac is only the cobbler, which is possible, I request a double lynching of Valier and Naria...they both stink of collusion and are possibly in cahots too.

[mormegil]

I had an epiphany right about now...I was and remain surprised that I'm alive becuase I figured that I would generally be viewed as innocent, which seems to be the general consenus. So why would I be left alive? Well to use as a scapegoat is one possibility, and low and behold who is attacking me despite all logic? Macalaure, probably the final wolf.

++Macalaure

[Naria]

As I was reading the posts to see what Cel had said, I came across this

Originally Posted by Mac

He was about to continue credulously when suddenly a vision of his forefathers stroke him. He saw an ancestor of this Celuien lynching his own kin in times long past! Macalaure's face petrified in shock and in horror he withdrew from her.

I thought it odd when I read it the first time, but I passed it off as firstDance posting. What I also found odd was how Mac was so sure of Cel's guilt and pushed to get her killed. With what he said in the above quote and what happened yesterDance makes me uneasy about Mac now. Mac could you explain how you knew even on Dance1?

[Macalaure]

Slowly there, morm.

First off, I am not using you as a scapegoat, because I have never called you suspicious at all! In fact, you're a firm member of my own current innocents list. I only used you to show why Nogrod's reasoning fails in my mind. If I am suspicious by his reasoning, then so should you. Yet, you are not. I guess I didn't make that clear.

Maybe, if you all have a different opinion, I'm just misguided. *shrugs*

And would anybody explain to me why I, if I am the last wolf, should have voted Celuien? I not only voted her (when only morm has voted for her), but pretty actively urged everyone else to do so as well. Do you really think I would spoil Celuien's fun like that just to win, especially when she was my partner-in-evil?

Mac could you explain how you knew even on Dance1?

I didn't.
That post was purely in fun and purely random.

[Nogrod]

Macalaure: I'm getting a feeling that you're playing a much less intelligently that I know you could. Now c'mon. Why is this? Do I have to twist this from an ironbar to you (sorry about the Finnish idiom)?

And would anybody explain to me why I, if I am the last wolf, should have voted Celuien? I not only voted her (when only morm has voted for her), but pretty actively urged everyone else to do so as well. Do you really think I would spoil Celuien's fun like that just to win, especially when she was my partner-in-evil?

Well you really could spoil it to your own good (and in the end to your shared victory)! Arranging the lynch of your partner in evil would make you look soooo gooood! No one would suspect you and you could sail to the victory through the next Dances. There's no better shield against a lynch than being the one who arranged a lynching of a wolf! Unfortunately there are some "veterans" around to see that kind of bluff-possibility.

I do not say that the idea of a wolf going for his mate is the best case there is in principle (although not impossible or even unfrequent - as my forefathers have some experiences of it) but your reaction to the suggestions of it feel like they reveal something. So why are you, fex. wishing to cling to certain people now as you're under a threat, trying to befriend them and wishing to target others? Isn't that the wolvish tactics par excellance: trying to be nice to many people enough and pin-pointing your suspicions to the few (which you as a wolf know to be innocent). I know I have laid many suspicions on many of you people out there, but that's for the common good. Fex. I do not suspect Folwren so much any more as her defence after my "attack" seemed to be genuine enough. That is the way we can make some reasonable stances on one another: suspicion and returns to them... You're not making the most soothing ones now Mac, sorry to say that as it would have been nice to see you as our hero lastDance...

Just looking at the way you're more trying to find allies than getting to the truth I might quote yourself with morm:

First off, I am not using you as a scapegoat, because I have never called you suspicious at all! In fact, you're a firm member of my own current innocents list. I only used you to show why Nogrod's reasoning fails in my mind. If I am suspicious by his reasoning, then so should you. Yet, you are not. I guess I didn't make that clear

So what is this if not only trying to befriend people? I know you enough Macalaure and I know you would not sink this low as to try to talk people to your side if there wasn't something fishy behind it. Were you innocent, you would have acted more graciously and thought about the truth and the best of the village as the first things, not the view of some influential villagers on you yourself...

I'm not loosing my grip on the Valier - Naria -theory as I think it still plausible, but you Mac will top my suspicions right now.

I'm so sorry if I'm wrong but I'm waiting for you to settle this thing with reasonable points before I start to trust you again...

And just before I go to sleep, if anyone has time to look at Rikae, that would be good. I mean, if Celuien the wolf has been so adamant about saying that the kills at Night are safe-ones, so is there something that would speak the contrary?

[Macalaure]

What I see at the moment is:
- a safe wolf kill
- one wolf whose play was concentrated on not offending anyone and not drawing the attention of many people on her
- another safe wolf kill

My assumption is that the second wolf plays similarly as Celuien, therefore my high suspicion of Eomer. He has not said anything that I could point out and proof his wolvishness with. He remains in the back of the scene and only makes some points about people who are already suspected by others - like Celuien did.

Of course, my assumption might be wrong, but I think I'll give it a try.


I'm not sure what to think of the Valier-Naria-conspiracy yet.


Nogrod, befriending? If I thought that morm would fall for something like that I would really be playing unintelligently. morm voted me with a reason that I think was founded on a misunderstanding. This I wanted to tell him.

Maybe it's just my perception of it, but I really feel like you are twisting the truth about me. This is what I would expect you to do as a cobbler (therefore my suspicion of Cobrod): as wordy as usual, elegantly bending the truth to entangle everybody in it, friendly and flattering to not make too many people vote you, only aggressive when you are able to make a really good case. I tried to pin you down over the night, but it's not possible for me. If cobbler you are, then you are a frightening one, if not, I'm sorry about my suspicions.

And of course I know that backstabbing a fellow wolf is a decent tactic, but it's also a little unfair one. If it is foreseeable that a fellow goes down, then it's understandable, but the way I urged her lynching, it would have been a little mean, wouldn't it?

[Nogrod]

Well. First of all I find it very fishy that Celuien spends so much space to argue that the wolves are careful and kill carefully as not to leave tracks. I would like to remind you that when she went off for RL reasons the last Dance she was not under any actual threat of lynching herself (only the vote from Morm). So she could have been confident enough and trying to lead us astray. Then her companion might be someone who is in the middle of discussion and the kills are having a point, how superficial they might seem? What I mean: the kills may not have an imminent point as they might be calculated considering it. I have yet to see a game where a wolf would like to kill off someone who suspected her/him slightly. It's too obvious as we all know. But why not to take advantage of this shared sentiment in this kind of situation?

So I'm a bit more inclined to believe there is a point in the wolf-kills than not, but possibly a more straightforward one than we are used to.

It's also noteworthy that on Dance1 she votes for morm partially because he thought Valier being the cobbler but on Dance2 she votes her herself! So trying to frame Morm on Dance1 and then choosing the easy vote the next Dance? So even if we thought of her as the most careful one, she seemed to be able to make dubious steps...

She uses Farael to back her conviction that the wolves will pick ones who don't leave a trail. Also she kind of relieves him after a Night's thinking. So she was then assured of his cobblery? (we don't know if she was right with that, but anyhow)

Her early "unbased" suspicions on Eomer and then declaring him not to seem wolvish (regrettably, as she made us understand it) and her comment of not getting a feel about Naria should be noted too. And the number of people she "had no hunch about" or "felt confident with" should also be remarked.

[mormegil]

Noggie, it's nice to know that you are innocent. What I am seeing is exactly what I expected to see when this whole ball began namely; A small group working in unison against the main flow. Based on new posting and thought I've revised my theory about Valier a bit, though she's not innocent in my view she's looking a bit better than others: Naria to top the list, Mac, Farael are the others. Three people singing the same off beat tune with spurious logic as to why I'm guilty.

If it's remembered that one cobbler has no official idea who is who but one cobbler does. The wolf also has no clue who is who, officially, but if you take the general feel of those three or four I promise that at least two of the three are in there likely all three.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Remember the wolf has to kill someone. Rikae was hardly among the top-suspected players so why not her? We have the tendency to over-analyse things and cause severe brain attacks.

Anyway, I noticed in Celuien's post #94 that she makes use of the Funnily enough, Mac does that in post #232 and #239. All when trying to pacify potential adversaries. Desperate to appear friendly? It's something I've seen before and it flushed out a wolf. (Bad memories )

Anyway, I think that point, as trivial as it may seem, is far more substantial than anything Mac has raised against me. Yet I am apparently his top suspect. Of course, as Mac himself admits, there's nothing wolvish about me, and there's nothing I've said that he can point to and say 'Look at that!' But still.

Know what I think, Mac? You're scaremongering. You're eager to whip up an anti-Eomer frenzy because you know how easy it is. When you repeat the assertion that I am very suspicious, but without any semblance of a reason why — other than that I'm supposedly playing like Celuien (?) — it makes me wonder.

I didn't responded to these suspicions before because I felt they were so beneath me, but if you're going to persist with this thought then I have to point it out.


Suspicious of: Naria, Valier, Mac, Farael.

Somewhat wary of: Mormegil, Holbytlass, Folwren.

Reasonably unworried about: Lalwendë, Nogrod.

Absolutely certain of innocence, beauty and, yea! perfection: Cailín

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by mormegil

What I am seeing is exactly what I expected to see when this whole ball began namely; A small group working in unison against the main flow. Based on new posting and thought I've revised my theory about Valier a bit, though she's not innocent in my view she's looking a bit better than others: Naria to top the list, Mac, Farael are the others. Three people singing the same off beat tune with spurious logic as to why I'm guilty.

Bear with me, mormegil, but I can't see your logic. If the "main flow" is on the right track, you're right. The three will be pretty desperate indeed to save the wolf's neck. Would, even in this case, be the baddies be so scared to work in unison like you say they do and not maintain some distance?
What if the main flow isn't on the right track? In this case I can't believe the wolf and its cobbler would do anything which is in opposite to it. Only the lonely cobbler might.
And what if the main flow is led by a vocal and convincing wolf/cobbler? Staying with it will lead us directly into desaster in that case.

Originally Posted by Eomer

You're eager to whip up an anti-Eomer frenzy because you know how easy it is.

Sadly, it isn't. As you are doubtlessly able to see for yourself, nobody is listening to me...

[Lalwendë]

And in comes a curveball from the outfield:

I'm having suspicions about Cailin right now...

[Macalaure]

About Naria:

She voted mormegil when the vote tally was:

Cel-3, Val-4, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1

If she's the other wolf, she would have wanted to save Celuien. There was at least Rikae's vote still left, plus the constant danger that comes from retractions. Easiest way to save Celu: vote Valier. For reasoning, she could've practically just copy-and-pasted from the other voters. After Valier had been dead and perhaps innocent, people would have looked at Valier voters, which would have been a danger to Naria. But there are other votes for Valier (especially Lalwende and -surprise!- Eomer) whose votes were more suspicious.
Going for morm was a throwaway vote - always and automatically suspicious. It could have been a calculated risk of hers. Well, it immediately went wrong and then she voted Celuien. Why? Why try to avert a double lynch if you're guilty? To prove you're not in league with the wolf? Too late. That chance has passed.

Naria's posts are suspicious, I don't doubt this. But this voting behaviour just doesn't look wolvish to me. Convince me of the opposite and you'll have my vote. At the moment, I think she could be a cobbler, maybe, but they're not our primary aim.

[Cailín]

About Naria's vote: she voted by the time Celuien was under serious suspicion. Any vote not for Celuien would in hindsight be suspicious but a vote meant to save Celuien would be her on the first-to-lynch list without question: she was already suspicious. If the team indeed was Naria-Celuien (I am not convinced yet), a throwaway vote would almost be her best bet.

The voting does not condemn her, but it does increase my suspicion of her.

As to the cobblers… one of them by now is cast adrift and has not a clue anymore. The most that cobbler could do is throw a fit, confuse everyone or bide his / her time. The cobbler who knew Celuien's identity obviously did not vote for her yesterday and probably voted to save her. Ergo - this may make sense only to me - yesterDance's most suspicious vote is likely cast by Celuien's cobbler and I think it is far less likely the remaining wolf voted to keep their buddy in the game.

Naria is not Celuien's cobbler. Farael might be. He seems to have an air of desperation today. I am also considering him as the possible other wolf, to be honest. His vote for mormegil I find far more suspicious than Naria's even, who I think would -if innocent- simply enjoy suspecting Mormegil.

Of course, Macalaure's campaign against wonderful, lovely and irresistible Eomer is highly suspicious.

I still think Lalwende the Christmas Elf is a little dodgy as well.

Definitely innocent:

Eomer of the Rohirrim

Appear innocent:

Nogrod
Mormegil

Could be playing dangerous game:

Macalaure

Wary of (but could go either way):

Valier
Lalwende
Holbytlass
Folwren

Suspicious of:

Farael
Naria

[Valier]

*sigh* Well the Cobblers are doing a good job in confusing this here village. I was starting to get a feel for some players, but I keep getting these strange feelings that I am not looking in the right place....The possibility of Nogrod being the last wolf with Morm by his side as Cobbler, just keeps popping up in my head. I don't have much time today, but I will be here for the next hour and a half, before I vote, so I will see if I can justify my feelings and see if I can pick out the other confuser.

[Cailín]

Adding a little concerning Holby:

She has stayed in the background and not said much. Her votes were for mormegil and Macalaure. I did not previously find her suspicious, because her statements seemed correct and well thought-out, but if we are looking for someone who acts similarly to Wolf-Celuien, Holbytlass would be a likely candidate.

[Valier]

Dance3 votes

Mormegil-->Macalaure
Farael-->Mormegil
Naria-->Mormegil
Nogrod-->Naria


Yet to post today
Holby

Needs to talk more
Folwren
Lalwende

[Nogrod]

Okay. I only have a few minutes.

It's true that Celuien's cobbler was there yesterDance and should have tried to save her. So s/he would act only after s/he noticed things going wrong. The last votes (when Celuien had started to rise in the polls):

Macalaure-->Celuien (Cel-2, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1,Mac-1)
Valier-->Celuien (Cel-3, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1)
Eomer-->Valier (Cel-3, Val-3, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1)
Folwren-->Farael (Cel-3, Val-3, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)
Lalwende--> Valier (Cel-3, Val-4, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)
Naria --> morm (Cel-3, Val-4, Morm-2, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)
Rikae --> Mac (Cel-3, Val-4, Morm-2, Fol-1, Mac-2, Farael-1)
Rikae X Mac --> Celuien (Cel-4, Val-4, Morm-2, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)
Naria X morm --> Celuien (Cel-5, Val-4, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)

So if Celuien's cobbler is there, then we have only two baddies in the list of Naria, Valier, Farael, Macalaure (+- Naria). And Cel's cobbler could be anyone...

To me Naria's vote-change in the end looks most suspicious (in a sense of wolvery, not cobblery). She thought of throwing a cast away -vote and immediately realised the situation. Remember there was most probably going to be a double-lynch and Celuien was about to go. How would we have looked at her vote on morm then?

Okay. My vote stays.

I hope we get the last one toDance.